朝闻国盛 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 03 19 年 月 日 产量降，需求增，叙事已明，空间大开 今日概览 ◼ 研究视点 【煤炭】产量降，需求增，叙事已明，空间大开——20260318 【海外】丘钛科技（01478.HK）-直面行业挑战，横向纵向扩张—— 20260318 【计算机】科大讯飞（002230.SZ）-发布桌面级助理产品 Loomy，AI Agent 持续落地——20260318 【计算机】大华股份（002236.SZ）-亮相 2026 荷兰交通展，"数智赋能" 融入交通数字化转型——20260318 【计算机】海康威视（002415.SZ）-亮相 AWE2026，AI 大模型赋能数字 化运营 ——20260318 【食品饮料】万辰集团（300972.SZ）-净利率再创新高，扩店增品势能 强劲——20260318 作者 | 分析师 余平 | | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680520010003 | | 邮箱：yuping@gszq.com | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 1 月 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 产量降，需求增，叙事已明，空间大开 事件：国家统计局公布 2026 年 1-2 月份能源生产情况。 1-2 月原煤产量同比下降 0.3%。据国家统计局数据，1-2 月份，规上工业原 煤产量 7.6 亿吨，同比下降 0.3%，月环比减少 13.64%；日均产量 1293 万 吨。展望 2026，我们预计 2026 年相关政策力度有望延续甚至更趋严格。国 内煤炭现有生产矿井难以提供额外增量；煤炭产量的增长预计将几乎完全依 赖于"新投产矿井"。此外，部分"核增手续不齐全"的矿井亦有面临整改或 退出的风险。综上，根据新建矿井投产进度并结合部分地区因资源枯竭等原因 造成的产量下滑综合考虑，我们预计 2026 年国内动力煤产量仅增加 2000~3000 万吨至 38.5 亿吨，同比增长 0.6%左右。 1-2 月煤炭进口量同比增长 1.5%。2026 年 1-2 月份，我国进口煤炭 7722.2 万吨，较去年同期增加 110.3 万吨，同比增长 1.45%。展望 2026 年，我们预 计中国动力煤进口量总体保持稳定，全球主要 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 产量降，需求增，叙事已明，空间大开 事件：国家统计局公布 2026 年 1-2 月份能源生产情况。 1-2 月原煤产量同比下降 0.3%。据国家统计局数据，1-2 月份，规上工业原 煤产量 7.6 亿吨，同比下降 0.3%，月环比减少 13.64%；日均产量 1293 万 吨。展望 2026，我们预计 2026 年相关政策力度有望延续甚至更趋严格。国 内煤炭现有生产矿井难以提供额外增量；煤炭产量的增长预计将几乎完全依 赖于"新投产矿井"。此外，部分"核增手续不齐全"的矿井亦有面临整改或 退出的风险。综上，根据新建矿井投产进度并结合部分地区因资源枯竭等原因 造成的产量下滑综合考虑，我们预计 2026 年国内动力煤产量仅增加 2000~3000 万吨至 38.5 亿吨，同比增长 0.6%左右。 1-2 月煤炭进口量同比增长 1.5%。2026 年 1-2 月份，我国进口煤炭 7722.2 万吨，较去年同期增加 110.3 万吨，同比增长 1.45%。展望 2026 年，我们预 计中国动力煤进口量总体保持稳定，全球主要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Views - The coal price is expected to challenge the 1000 yuan mark as the market digests recent price increases and enters a replenishment cycle [2][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets, particularly Indonesia, in influencing global coal prices, with potential supply cuts leading to significant price increases [2][3] - The report highlights the cost advantages of coal chemical products due to rising oil prices, which are expected to boost demand for coal [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 4311.35 points, an increase of 3.50%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.57 percentage points [6][76] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing US-Iran conflict, have led to soaring prices for oil and LNG, further supporting the case for rising coal prices [2][8] Price Trends - As of March 6, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was reported at 751 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 yuan/ton week-on-week [9][34] - The report indicates that while coal prices may experience short-term adjustments, the overall downward space is limited due to low inventory levels in major production areas [19][34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that coal production in Indonesia has reached its lowest monthly level since January 2022, with a nearly 30% year-on-year decline [2] - Domestic coal supply is recovering, with major coal mines returning to normal production levels, but demand from downstream industries remains cautious [11][39] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on coal companies with overseas operations, such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) [3][12] - It also suggests monitoring companies with significant coal chemical operations, such as Yanzhou Coal Energy, Guanghui Energy, and China Coal Energy [3][12] Key Stocks - The report lists several stocks with "Buy" ratings, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601998.SH), highlighting their expected earnings per share and price-to-earnings ratios [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal price is expected to rise due to the seasonal demand increase in March and April, with a potential target of reaching around 1,000 yuan per ton [7][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets, particularly Indonesia, in influencing coal prices, with potential "black swan" events that could significantly impact the market [2][12] - The focus is on companies with overseas operations, such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 4165.46 points, an increase of 5.70%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.62 percentage points [77] - Domestic coal prices have begun to rebound post-holiday, with a weekly increase of 31 yuan per ton, driven primarily by Indonesian RKAB policy changes [7][19] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The "golden March and silver April" peak season is approaching, reinforcing expectations for rising coal prices [13][34] - **Coking Coal**: Supply recovery is ongoing, but prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand [37][49] - **Coke**: Prices are expected to remain under pressure due to weak iron and steel demand [75] Investment Strategy - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, with a focus on companies that have strong performance indicators [12][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the recovery of downstream industries and the overall market sentiment [12][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal price is expected to rise due to the seasonal demand increase in March and April, with a potential target of reaching around 1,000 yuan/ton [7][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets, particularly Indonesia, in influencing coal prices, with potential "black swan" events that could significantly impact the market [2][12] - The focus is on companies with overseas operations, such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 4165.46 points, an increase of 5.70%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.62 percentage points [77] - Domestic coal prices have started to rebound post-holiday, with a weekly increase of 31 yuan/ton, driven primarily by Indonesia's RKAB policy [7][32] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The "golden March and silver April" peak season is approaching, reinforcing expectations for rising coal prices [13][34] - **Coking Coal**: Supply is recovering, but prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand [37][49] - **Coke**: Prices are expected to remain under pressure due to weak iron and steel demand [75] Investment Strategy - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, with a focus on companies that have strong performance indicators [12][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the recovery of downstream industries and the overall demand for coal [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal market is expected to perform well post-holiday, driven by domestic price increases as demand shifts towards domestic coal procurement due to rising overseas prices [1][7] - The focus for the coal market this year is on overseas developments rather than domestic factors, with potential "black swan" events in the overseas market, particularly related to U.S. demand and Indonesian production cuts, being crucial for price movements [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of Indonesian coal supply and its impact on global coal prices, suggesting that significant production cuts could lead to a tight global coal market and higher prices [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3940.86 points, up 1.86%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.5 percentage points during the week of February 9 to February 13, 2026 [77] - Domestic coal production was largely halted during the holiday, but overseas coal prices continued to rise, leading to an expectation of increased domestic prices as demand shifts [1][7] Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Supply constraints have led to stable price increases before the holiday, with port inventories declining and daily consumption at power plants decreasing [11][27][30] - **Coking Coal**: Prices remained stable as downstream inventory replenishment ended, with a focus on the impact of Mongolian coal imports [35][42] - **Coke**: The market is expected to remain stable post-holiday, with attention on downstream demand recovery [53][75] Key Companies - The report highlights several companies as key investment targets, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) with a "Buy" rating and projected EPS growth [9] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) also rated "Buy" [9] - New Energy (601918.SH) and Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) with "Buy" ratings [9] - Companies with overseas operations such as China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia are noted for their potential benefits from overseas market dynamics [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining sector [4] Core Insights - The coal market is currently influenced by external factors, particularly the proposed significant production cuts by Indonesia, which could lead to a global coal supply shortage and increased prices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets over domestic ones, suggesting that any "black swan" events in these markets could significantly impact coal prices [2] - The report highlights the "Overseas 3 Small Coal" concept, focusing on companies with international operations that are likely to benefit from the anticipated price increases [2][13] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3868.96 points, a decrease of 0.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.72 percentage points [76] - The report notes that the coal market lacks imagination under current fundamental conditions, but high coal prices could enhance company valuations if unexpected events occur [1][2] Key Areas of Analysis - The report discusses the impact of Indonesia's proposed production cuts, which could reduce output by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, potentially leading to a significant tightening of the global coal market [1][2] - It also mentions that the domestic coal market is expected to experience a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Chinese New Year approaches, with prices likely to stabilize [33][38] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with international coal sales, specifically highlighting China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) as key investment opportunities [2][13] - It also suggests that Yancoal Australia's parent company, Yanzhou Coal, should be closely monitored [13] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, the spot price for thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 697 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [33] - The report indicates that while the market is currently stable, the sentiment is optimistic due to the supply constraints from Indonesia, which may lead to price increases post-holiday [33][35] Focused Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, based on their performance and market positioning [10][13] - It also highlights the importance of companies like Keda Control and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from market changes [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Hold" for Pingmei Shenma [8][9]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to focus on overseas opportunities rather than domestic ones, with potential "black swan" events in the international market that could significantly impact coal prices [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with overseas operations, specifically China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) [1]. - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to remain volatile, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling and tightening supply as the Chinese New Year approaches [10][34]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3892.74 points, an increase of 3.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.90 percentage points [69]. - China Qinfa's market capitalization reached a historical high of 10.6 billion HKD, reflecting strong market sentiment [1]. Coal Price Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 695 CNY/ton, up by 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [34]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to stabilize as supply tightens and demand fluctuates due to the upcoming holiday [34]. Focus on Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [9]. - Companies like China Qinfa, which are expanding overseas, are highlighted as having significant growth potential [1][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that coal supply is tightening as some mines halt production for the holiday, while demand is supported by pre-holiday stockpiling [10][34]. - The report also mentions that the inventory levels at major ports are decreasing, which could support price stability [14]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry will continue to play a crucial role in China's energy landscape, with a focus on high-quality development amid structural reforms [34]. - Long-term prospects for the coal sector remain positive, with expectations of increased concentration and stability in supply-demand dynamics [34].