智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑;美 国餐饮RPI环比下降，美国住房市场指数环比承压。建议重点关注具备全球制造布局、品牌输出能力与 渠道整合优势的出口型消费企业。在当前外部环境变化与政策博弈背景下，具备产能多元化配置、稳定 客户黏性及定价权的企业，有望在全球贸易格局调整中实现持续成长。该行看好市场占有率高、供应链 韧性强、并已建立成熟海外产能的标的。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 成本跟踪 美元兑人民币汇率小幅贬值;欧洲航线、美东航线、美西航线、东南亚航线海运费同比下降。1)汇率： 2026年1月30日美元兑人民币即期汇率为6.95，环比1月23日上升1.30%;欧元兑人民币汇率为8.28，环比1 月23日+0.97%。2)海运费：2026年1月第四周中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)中，综合指数为1175.59， 同比下降16.92%，环比下降2.74%;欧洲航线为1574.69，同比下降25.16%，环比上升0.35%;美东航线为 975.78，同比下降24.75%，环比下降0.37%;美西航线为867.79，同比下降27.60%，环比上升1.64%;东南 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with a price difference of 0 yuan/m³ for 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - As of the week of December 26, the daily average shipment volume and inventory of the four major ports remained unchanged from the previous week, with a total inventory of 1.9131 million cubic meters [6]. - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern with a weak supply - demand fundamental situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 26 of which were going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for partial unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 18 in January, with an expected arrival volume of 1.58 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. - Detailed information on the departure time, load, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time of 33 ships from New Zealand in December is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2668 million cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [12]. - A table shows the inventory and daily shipment volume of major domestic ports over multiple time periods, including inventory changes compared to the previous week and four weeks ago [13]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776 yuan/m³, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand situation. The monthly spreads tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan/m³, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 22.5 yuan/m³, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/m³ [18]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot price data of various tree species and specifications of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu regions, showing that most prices remained unchanged from the previous week [21]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of mainstream tree species between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 40 + radiata pine [41]. 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of January 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1877.00 points, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 719 points, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.003, a 0.06% decrease from the previous week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.3% to 1.736 [56]. - A table shows the changes in freight - related indices and exchange rates over multiple time periods, including the comparison with the previous week and four weeks ago [55].

Group 1 - The domestic thermal coal and Australian prices continued to rise month-on-month, while South African and European offshore prices fell [1][2] - As of August 22, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price was 702.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 63 CNY/ton, or 9.86% from the previous month [1][2] - The Newcastle port thermal coal price in Australia was 110.80 USD/ton, up 1.60 USD/ton, or 1.47% month-on-month [1][2] - South African Richards Bay thermal coal price was 89.70 USD/ton, down 4.20 USD/ton, or 4.47% month-on-month [1][2] - European three-port thermal coal price was 98.70 USD/ton, down 3.70 USD/ton, or 3.61% month-on-month [1][2] Group 2 - In July, the monthly output of raw coal decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year; the output from key state-owned coal mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia also saw a decline [3] - The total raw coal output in July was 38,098.70 million tons, a decrease of 4,008.7 million tons, or 9.52% month-on-month [3] - The coal inventory at the three major ports continued to decline month-on-month, while the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups increased [3] - As of August 22, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian ports was 1,234.40 million tons, down 98.80 million tons, or 7.41% month-on-month [3] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 94.04 thousand tons, an increase of 5.82 thousand tons, or 6.60% month-on-month [3] Group 3 - Domestic and international shipping costs continued to rise month-on-month [4] - As of August 22, the shipping cost from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai for 40-50 thousand DWT was 31.30 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 10.21% [4] - The shipping cost from Newcastle, Australia to China was 15.60 USD/ton, up 1.50 USD/ton, or 10.64% month-on-month [4] Group 4 - The conclusion indicates that domestic thermal coal and Australian prices continued to rise month-on-month, while the output of raw coal and key state-owned coal mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia decreased [5] - The coal inventory at the three major ports continued to decline month-on-month, and the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups increased [5] - Domestic and international shipping costs also saw a month-on-month increase [5]

Group 1: US Market Demand - In June, US automotive parts and tire store retail sales reached $11.693 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.90% [1] - In July, US gasoline consumption was 8.9418 million barrels per day, a year-on-year decrease of 3.04%, while diesel consumption was 3.5098 million barrels per day, down 4.09% year-on-year [1] - US automobile sales in July were 1.3722 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.43% [1] Group 2: Import Demand - In June, the US imported 16.8895 million semi-steel tires, a month-on-month decrease of 4.67% but a year-on-year increase of 7.75% [2] - The US imported 1.9116 million full-steel tires in June, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 44.90% [2] - Both semi-steel and full-steel tire import volumes in June were at historically high levels, indicating robust overall demand [2] Group 3: Raw Material Prices - In July, the tire raw material price index was 151.90, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.28% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.26% [3] - The average price of natural rubber was 14,003 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 1.00% [3] - The average price of carbon black was 6,709 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.47% [3] Group 4: Shipping Costs - In July, the average Baltic global container freight index (FBX) was 2,531.25 points, a month-on-month decrease of 25.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 50.19% [4] - The CCFI for the East Coast averaged 1,247.30 points, down 7.31% month-on-month and down 30.43% year-on-year [4] - The CCFI for the West Coast averaged 983.60 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 14.44% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% [4] Group 5: New Product Launch - Sailun Group successfully launched its "Liquid Gold" tire in the Vietnamese market, marking the introduction of this high-performance tire product [5] - The launch event was attended by key executives from Sailun Group and its Vietnamese subsidiary [5]

Group 1 - The Red Sea crisis has been a key driver for maintaining high freight rates over the past 18 months [1] - The return to Red Sea shipping routes may lead to a significant drop in freight rates, but initial congestion could be severe [1] - Various factors will continue to influence shipping costs over the next six months [1]