Core Viewpoint - The July economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mixed performance in various sectors, with exports showing resilience while other indicators like retail sales and investment have seen a decline compared to June [1][7]. Group 1: Trade and Exports - In July, the total goods import and export volume reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Exports amounted to 2.31 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0%, while imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 4.8% [1]. - July marked the second consecutive month of export growth, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to June. Imports also showed significant improvement, with a rise of 2.4 percentage points from June [1][3]. - Despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, Chinese companies are actively exploring non-U.S. markets, leading to faster growth in exports to these regions [3]. Group 2: Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, but a month-on-month decline of 0.14%. Retail sales of goods grew by 4.0%, while catering revenue increased by only 1.1% [3][5]. - The consumption upgrade policy significantly boosted the sales of key consumer goods in July, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment showing year-on-year growth rates of 28.7%, 13.8%, 20.6%, and 14.9% respectively [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, and real estate development investment fell by 12% [6]. - The decline in investment growth is attributed to various factors, including extreme weather conditions affecting construction, complex external environments, and weakened investment momentum in traditional sectors like real estate [6][7]. - The actual growth rate of fixed asset investment, after adjusting for price factors, is estimated to be around 4% to 5%, indicating steady expansion in physical investment [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and the CL spread. The shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains slightly oversupplied in the short term, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices may rebound, but the zinc fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy is recommended [8]. Nickel - The nickel market has improved macro - sentiment, but the cost support of refined nickel has loosened. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was 70 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina output was 7.2721 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.729 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot output was 606,000 tons, down 0.66% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 261,000 tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc output was 549,400 tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume was 28,200 tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,600 yuan/ton, down 7.14% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The futures - spot spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 16.00% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) in April was 1.7912 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless - steel import volume was 125,100 tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 59,700 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

Market Sentiment - The recent drop in the market has caused a loss of confidence among investors, particularly around the 3400-point level, which has proven to be a significant resistance point [1][7] - Despite the short-term challenges, there is an expectation that the market will eventually break through this resistance, with the second half of the year seen as a potential turning point [1][9] Economic Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported that the subsidy funds for the "old-for-new" consumption policy have reached about 50% of the annual target, indicating satisfactory progress [3][5] - The implementation of this policy has significantly boosted consumer spending, as evidenced by the fastest year-on-year growth in retail sales in May, suggesting a clear recovery in consumption [5][8] Market Dynamics - The recent market adjustment is viewed as a release of emotional pressure rather than a fundamental shift, with economic data indicating steady improvement and resilience against external uncertainties [8][9] - The focus should be on the performance of the ChiNext and CSI 2000 indices, which are seen as more indicative of market health than the overall index, as they have entered an oversold phase and are due for a rebound [9] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to experience limited downside in the short term, with a potential for a small rebound as indicators suggest oversold conditions [7][8] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and patient, monitoring key levels such as 3369 points for signs of recovery before making significant moves [8][9]