本报讯（西海新闻记者 范程程）2月24日，来自青海省商务厅的消息，春节假期，青海省商务系统 以"乐购新春"为主题，通过有奖发票、以旧换新、发放消费券等惠民措施，精心打造各具特色的消费新 场景，多维发力激活消费潜力，多措并举保障市场供应，全省消费市场整体呈现供需两旺、运行平稳的 良好态势。商务部平台监测显示，2月15日至22日，全省95家重点监测零售企业累计实现销售收入1.1亿 元，同比增长6.8%；29家重点餐饮企业实现销售收入489万元。 省内重点商业综合体、步行街、商贸企业同步联动，推出形式多样、年味浓郁的主题营销活动，营造红 火热闹的消费氛围。全省各步行街客流旺盛，消费热度持续攀升，省内重点监测商业步行街客流量同比 增长11%，销售额同比增长6%。 为保障假期市场供应，青海各级商务主管部门启动生活必需品日监测机制，提前投放储备肉菜，引导重 点保供企业拓宽货源渠道，全力确保节日市场供应不断档、不脱销。全省重点保供企业日均储备粮油 7367吨、蔬菜1810吨、水果1615吨。西宁市在145个平价销售网点，启动粉西红柿、蒜薹、黄瓜等6种平 价蔬菜供应工作，累计供应蔬菜600多吨。 政策赋能，激活节日消费潜力， ...

增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [本Table_Summary] 周行业观点（注：文中"本周"指 1 月 26 日至 2 月 1 日） 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 2026 年消费-商贸零售&社会服务业的八大 预测 2026 年 02 月 01 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 相关研究 《陕西旅游主板 IPO 过会，招股书详 细拆解》 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail and consumer services industry for 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant number of consumption-promoting policies in 2026, focusing on "supply-side" initiatives rather than traditional methods like vouchers, leading to structural investment opportunities [4][9] - Service consumption is expected to be a key area in 2026, with a focus on "quality supply" and "reform," particularly in tourism, department stores, tea drinks, and chain stores [4][9] - The gold and jewelry sector is projected to see profits reflect gold price fluctuations, with direct retail brands likely to benefit first as gold prices stabilize [10] - The bulk trade sector is expected to recover from its lowest point, with both valuation and profitability anticipated to rise in 2026 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of "consumption going abroad" as a long-term investment direction, with opportunities arising from sustained performance growth rather than policy stimulus [10] - New consumption brands are expected to show a clear resurgence after the Lunar New Year, with low valuations and anticipated positive performance data [11] - State-owned enterprise reform is highlighted as a core driver for promoting consumption, particularly in scenario-based consumption areas like tourism and retail [12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Outlook - The report predicts numerous consumption policies aimed at encouraging new business models, leading to rich structural investment opportunities in the consumer sector [4][9] - Service consumption will focus on quality supply and reforms, with recommendations for specific companies in tourism and retail sectors [4][9] 2. Market Review - The report notes that from January 26 to February 1, the retail index rose by 2.16%, while the overall market indices showed varied performance [13][14] - Year-to-date performance indicates a 4.92% increase in the retail index, reflecting positive market sentiment [16] 3. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings for 2024 to 2026, with specific buy and hold recommendations [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector in commercial real estate is experiencing a transformation driven by consumer promotion policies and the expansion of the duty-free economy across major cities in China, leading to increased consumer spending and inbound tourism [3][5][6]. Group 1: Retail Sector Performance - Major retail operators such as CR Land, Longfor Group, and Link REIT are showing varied performance, with some projects achieving significant growth while others struggle with older assets requiring continuous investment [3][9]. - The retail property portfolio of Link REIT in mainland China reported a total revenue and net property income growth of 29.7% and 28.9% respectively, driven by strong performance from specific projects in Shanghai and Shenzhen [9][12]. Group 2: Consumer Promotion Policies - Cities like Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Chengdu have introduced consumer promotion policies aimed at boosting local economies, with initiatives such as the establishment of new retail stores and events to attract consumers [5][6]. - The focus on green consumption and the establishment of new retail formats, such as duty-free shops in urban areas, are part of a broader strategy to enhance consumer engagement and stimulate economic activity [5][8]. Group 3: Experience and Content Enhancement - Existing retail spaces are undergoing significant upgrades to enhance consumer experience, with a shift towards immersive and engaging environments to attract foot traffic [14][17]. - New entrants in the outlet market are leveraging unique themes and experiences to differentiate themselves, such as health and wellness concepts in shopping centers [13][19]. Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce Expansion - Cross-border e-commerce platforms like TikTok Shop are expanding into new European markets, indicating a strategic move to capture a broader customer base [30][31]. - Domestic platforms are also enhancing their international competitiveness, with initiatives like JD's collaboration with Xiaohongshu to improve conversion rates and customer engagement [34]. Group 5: REITs and Investment Trends - The approval of new consumption infrastructure REITs, such as the China Green Development REIT, reflects a growing trend towards light-asset operations and the optimization of commercial assets [35][36]. - Existing REITs are showing stable operations, with a reported cash distribution rate of 4.19% for the recently restructured Huaxia First Creation Outlet REIT [36][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The brand sector shows steady recovery in Q1 under consumer promotion policies, with most companies achieving positive growth, outperforming expectations. The performance varies across sub-sectors, with mid-to-high-end menswear showing strong growth, sports retail maintaining steady growth, and mass brands also experiencing a rebound. Profitability varies due to differentiated cost control and operational leverage [2][4][16] - The manufacturing sector faces short-term pressure as downstream inventory has reached healthy levels, but demand from major export countries is weakening. In Q1, demand from the US and Japan shows marginal weakening. Most brands and retailers have returned to healthy inventory levels, but weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum, affecting order elasticity in the related supply chain [2][4][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Brand Sector - Q1 retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6 percentage points [20] - Mid-to-high-end menswear brands are leading in retail growth, while the sports sector continues to show steady growth. Mass apparel brands are also experiencing a recovery [20][27] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is under short-term pressure due to weak demand from major export markets and healthy inventory levels. The overall order placement is cautious, with expectations of further pressure from tariff forecasts [4][28] Key Company Performance - **Wanjian Medical**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 30%-40%, driven by non-woven products and strong brand power in sanitary napkins [5][40] - **Zhejiang Natural**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 25%-35%, with net profit expected to increase by 50%-100% [5][40] - **Weixing Co.**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% and double-digit net profit growth [5][40] - **Anta Sports**: Expected Q1 revenue growth in the high single digits, with FILA brand showing mid-to-low single-digit growth [6][20] - **361 Degrees**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% for adult apparel and around 15% for children's clothing, with e-commerce growth of about 20% [6][20] Inventory and Demand Trends - The inventory levels of most brands and retailers have returned to a healthy state, with the wholesale inventory destocking nearing completion. However, weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum [4][28]

Group 1 - New home sales are slowing down, while the used housing market remains resilient, and passenger car sales continue to show strong performance [9][10][19] - In the week of March 10-16, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 26.4% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of 6.0%, 38.2%, and 33.0% respectively [10][16] - The retail sales of passenger cars in February increased by 26.0% year-on-year, driven by the resumption of subsidy policies and stable price expectations from car manufacturers [19][20] Group 2 - Construction demand remains weak, with manufacturing activity showing a slight increase [11][39] - The price of rebar and hot-rolled coils changed by -0.6% and +1.2% week-on-week, respectively, indicating a mixed performance in resource prices [11][26] - The national cement price index increased by 3.1% week-on-week, supported by industry self-discipline and limited production [11][35] Group 3 - Long-distance travel has increased, while the loading capacity of departing ships has decreased year-on-year [12][24] - The passenger volume of subways in major cities increased by 0.9% week-on-week, while the volume of express delivery increased by 20.5% year-on-year [12][24] - The SCFI/BDI index showed a week-on-week change of -8.1% and +19.2%, indicating fluctuations in export activity [12][24] Group 4 - The coal price at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 681 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.3% [43][46] - The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 2.8% and 0.7% week-on-week, respectively, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [47][49] - The total inventory of copper and aluminum decreased by 35,000 tons and 25,000 tons week-on-week, respectively [49][51]