研究早观点 2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,931.05 | -0.40 | | 深证成指 | | 12,980.82 | -0.76 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,564.95 | -0.51 | | 中小板指 | | 7,868.94 | -0.94 | | 创业板指 | | 3,042.34 | -1.12 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,328.19 | -1.24 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 市场走势 【今日要点】 【行业评论】煤炭：行业政策点评 2026 年电煤中长期合同点评：符合 预期，港口基准价维持不变 【山证纺服】浙江自然 2025Q3 季报点评-2025Q3 经营阶段性承压，水 上用品预计快速增长且盈利爬坡顺利 【公司评论】中恒电气(002364.SZ)：中恒电气点评-推出 800VDC 新建 和改造方案，未来增长可期 请务 ...

2025Q3 经营阶段性承压，水上用品预计快速增长且盈利爬坡顺利 2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 公司披露 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 8.18 亿元，同比 增长 3.48%，实现归母净利润 1.82 亿元，同比增长 12.06%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.41 亿元，同比下降 6.15%。 轻工制造 浙江自然（605080.SH） 买入-B(维持) 事件点评 资料来源：最闻，山西证券研究所 市场数据：2025 年 11 月 19 日 收盘价（元）： 23.88 年内最高/最低（元）： 34.88/18.53 2025Q3 营收增速由正转负，业绩延续下滑。营收端，2025 年前三季度，公司实现 营业收入 8.18 亿元，同比增长 3.48%，其中 2025Q3 营收为 1.33 亿元，同比下降 30.38%。 业绩端，2025 年前三季度，公司实现归母净利润 1.82 亿元，同比增长 12.06%，实现扣 非归母净利润 1.41 亿元，同比下降 6.15%。其中 2025Q3 归母净利润为 0.37 亿元，同 比下降 40.63 ...

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings with revenue of 133 million, a year-on-year decrease of 30.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37 million, down 40.6% year-on-year, primarily due to seasonal factors and tariff impacts on customer shipments and order rhythms [1] Group 1: Short-term and Mid-term Performance - Q3 performance was significantly affected by tariffs, leading to a slowdown in orders and shipments, but there is potential for recovery as tariffs stabilize and customer inventory is digested [2] - The company is aligning with consumer trends, expanding from traditional outdoor mattresses to include water sports products and insulated bags, thus diversifying its business and leading the camping economy [2] - Water sports products are produced in Vietnam, effectively avoiding trade barriers and benefiting from tariff advantages, with a high certainty of order expansion based on existing customer relationships [2] - The insulated bag segment targets the rigid demand for food preservation in outdoor activities, leveraging partnerships with leading industry clients to quickly penetrate the market [2] Group 2: Global Supply Chain and Profitability - The company has established a robust supply chain network through bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Morocco, enhancing supply chain resilience [3] - The Vietnam base focuses on water sports products and is expected to show strong profitability as global outdoor sports market demand increases [3] - The Cambodian base is dedicated to insulated bags, with high scarcity in production capacity and potential for customer expansion [3] - Q3 gross margin was 28.23%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant increase in expense ratios, indicating reduced scale effects on profitability [3] - The company anticipates improvement in profitability in Q4 as orders stabilize and new products gain traction, despite a stable overall expense ratio [3] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Due to tariff pressures on Q3 performance, the company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting revenues of 1.07 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.57 billion for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 7%, 24%, and 18% respectively [4] - Projected net profits for the same period are 210 million, 270 million, and 310 million, with growth rates of 14%, 25%, and 18% respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 13, and 11 times [4] - The investment recommendation remains a "buy" rating despite the anticipated challenges [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Natural's Q3 2025 revenue, net profit attributable to parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 133 million, 37 million, and 8 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 30.38%, 40.63%, and 68.23% due to tariff impacts affecting orders from Cambodia [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance Analysis - The decline in Q3 revenue is primarily attributed to tariff impacts leading to pressure on orders from Cambodia [1] - Short-term outlook for Q4 is expected to improve compared to Q3, driven by a turning point in inventory destocking for the main business of outdoor inflatable mattresses and new customer orders contributing to growth [1] Group 2: Medium to Long-term Growth Prospects - In the medium term, water sports products are anticipated to become a new growth point, leveraging the Vietnam base, with expectations of maintaining high growth this year [1] - In the long term, the company demonstrates strong capabilities in R&D and cost control in new materials, with the TPU penetration rate expected to continue increasing [1] - The overseas outdoor equipment market remains in a growth phase, with the company continuing to expand production and significant potential for increasing overseas market share [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to perform better in Q4 compared to Q3, with the main business of inflatable mattresses experiencing a turning point in inventory reduction, alongside new customer orders contributing to growth. However, the business in Cambodia remains under pressure due to tariff impacts [5] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards, reflecting a more cautious outlook, but maintains a "Buy" rating based on projected earnings growth [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 133 million, 37 million, and 8 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 30.38%, 40.63%, and 68.23% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 818 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.48%, and net profit attributable to the parent of 182 million yuan, up 12.06% [2] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q3 2025 were 28.23% and 27.80%, down 1.07 and 4.80 percentage points year-on-year [3] Inventory and Receivables - As of Q3 2025, the company's inventory was 231 million yuan, an increase of 11.31% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days rising to 130 days [4] - Accounts receivable decreased by 3.24% year-on-year to 158 million yuan, with turnover days increasing to 56 days [4] Future Outlook - Short-term prospects for Q4 are positive, with expectations of double-digit growth in the inflatable mattress segment and continued strong performance in water sports products, supported by the new manufacturing base in Vietnam [5] - Long-term growth is anticipated in the new materials sector, with a focus on TPU penetration and expansion in overseas outdoor equipment markets [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1,155 million, 1,314 million, and 1,476 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 13.8%, and 12.3% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent is projected to be 213 million, 254 million, and 286 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.0%, 19.3%, and 12.5% [8]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Natural is a leading outdoor sports goods manufacturer with a strong vertical integration advantage, focusing on inflatable mattresses and outdoor bags, and has shown impressive financial performance in the industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zhejiang Natural reported revenue of 818 million yuan, ranking 7th in the industry, while the top competitor, Tianyuan Pet, achieved 2.323 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 183 million yuan, leading the industry, with the second-place competitor, Yuanfei Pet, at 158 million yuan [2]. Financial Ratios - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 10.80% in Q3 2025, down from 15.70% year-on-year and significantly lower than the industry average of 30.49% [3]. - The gross profit margin was 34.00%, slightly down from 35.30% year-on-year but still above the industry average of 23.75% [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 1.60% to 11,000, while the average number of shares held per shareholder increased by 1.62% to 12,700 [5]. - New significant shareholders include Huatai PineBridge Value Selection Mixed Fund and Agricultural Bank Research Selection Mixed Fund, while some previous major shareholders exited [5]. Management Compensation - The chairman and general manager, Xia Yonghui, received a salary of 913,400 yuan in 2024, an increase of 206,400 yuan from 2023 [4]. Future Outlook - Tianfeng Securities projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 250 million, 330 million, and 410 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 11, and 9 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]. - Zheshang Securities anticipates revenues of 1.27 billion, 1.87 billion, and 2.40 billion yuan for the same period, with net profits of 250 million, 380 million, and 490 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating as well [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about a research on Zhejiang Natural in the textile and apparel industry on September 26, 2025 [1][2][17] Group 2: Research Basic Information - Research object: Zhejiang Natural [17] - Industry: Textile and apparel [2][17] - Reception time: 2025 - 09 - 26 [17] - Company reception staff: Chairman and General Manager Xia Yonghui, Deputy General Manager, Secretary of the Board, and Director Dong Yimin, Director and Chief Financial Officer Xia Xiuhua, Independent Director Chen Weibo [17] Group 3: Detailed Research Institutions - Reception object: All shareholders [20] - Reception object type: Not specified [20] - Institution - related personnel: Not specified [20] - Others: Not specified [20] Group 4: Main Content 1. Company's Business Performance - In the reporting period, the company achieved an operating income of RMB 685.4795 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.22% compared to the first half of 2024, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of RMB 145.5869 million, a year - on - year increase of 44.53% [25] 2. AI Application - The company is currently in the AI application stage, using AI to empower R & D and production, accelerating the implementation of the digital and intelligent strategy, assisting data analysis and simulation, optimizing the product design process, and realizing intelligent allocation of equipment and resources in production scheduling to improve production flexibility and response speed. It will continue to look for AI projects that fit its own industry [26] 3. Moroccan Subsidiary - The construction of the company's Moroccan subsidiary's factory is progressing in an orderly manner, and it is expected to complete all inspections and be put into use within 2026 [28] 4. External Investment Plan - In the reporting period, the company invested in the establishment of Singapore Ripple Private Limited with a shareholding ratio of 65%, which is mainly responsible for the water sports products division project. The company also has an insulation box division and a water sports products division to expand the business of insulation box products and water sports products respectively. Future external investment matters will be disclosed in a timely manner [28] 5. Shareholder Number - As of September 19, 2025, the company's latest number of shareholders is 11,210. The company will disclose the number of shareholders at corresponding time points in regular reports [28]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Natural reported a net profit of 150 million in H1 2025, representing a 45% year-on-year increase, while Q2 2025 net profit was 50 million, showing a 20% quarter-on-quarter decrease [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 150 million in H1 2025, which is a 45% increase compared to the previous year [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit was 50 million, reflecting a 20% decrease from the previous quarter [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on both internal improvements and external expansion, actively seeking new clients and breaking customer boundaries to enhance its development path [1] - Key technologies mastered by the company include TPU film production, composite fabric technology, polyurethane soft foam technology, high-frequency welding technology, and thermal pressing technology [1] Group 3: Future Development Plans - The company plans to establish a core focus on outdoor sports products, leveraging TPU composite fabrics and welding processing technology [1] - Future expansion will include a gradual move into various categories such as household inflatable mattresses, high-end insulated bags, and water sports products, supported by quality clients [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast based on H1 2025 performance, considering the impact of international tariff policy changes, and maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.66 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 300 million CNY in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million CNY, a decrease of 20%. For the first half of 2025, revenue reached 700 million CNY, up 14% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million CNY, an increase of 45% [1]. - The company is focusing on internal improvements by leveraging AI to enhance research and production, optimizing product design processes, and increasing production flexibility. Additionally, it is expanding overseas production capacity to better respond to international market changes and customer demands [1][2]. - The company is also expanding its market presence by diversifying its product offerings from traditional outdoor mattresses to include high-end camping gear and water products, aligning with the growing camping economy and consumer trends [1][2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The adjusted profit forecast for the company is as follows: for 2025, 250 million CNY; for 2026, 330 million CNY; and for 2027, 410 million CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 11, and 9 times [3]. - Projected revenue for the years 2023 to 2027 is as follows: 823.32 million CNY, 1,002.35 million CNY, 1,349.11 million CNY, 1,848.94 million CNY, and 2,357.51 million CNY, with growth rates of -12.95%, 21.75%, 34.60%, 37.05%, and 27.51% respectively [3][9]. - The company has established a vertically integrated supply chain, controlling the entire production process from raw materials to finished products, which enhances cost efficiency and quality control [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 685 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 146 million yuan, up 44.53% year-on-year. However, Q2 showed revenue of 329 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.67%, with net profit down 20.12% year-on-year [1] - The company is effectively diversifying its product categories, with significant contributions from new business lines such as water sports products and insulated bags, which are becoming strong growth drivers [2] - The global production capacity is being enhanced through bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Morocco, significantly improving supply chain resilience [3] - Despite short-term profit pressures, the overall expense ratio remains stable, with a gross margin of 35.12% for H1 2025, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.27 billion, 1.87 billion, and 2.40 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 250 million, 380 million, and 490 million yuan, indicating strong growth potential [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 685 million yuan, a 14.22% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 146 million yuan, up 44.53% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was 329 million yuan, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 20.12% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 35.12%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 10.02%, a slight increase of 0.11 percentage points [4] Business Development - The company is expanding its product lines, particularly in water sports and insulated bags, which are becoming significant contributors to growth. The water sports segment benefits from production in Vietnam, avoiding trade barriers and enjoying tariff advantages [2] - The insulated bag segment targets the outdoor camping and fishing markets, leveraging partnerships with leading industry clients to rapidly capture market share [2] Global Expansion - The company has established a robust supply chain network through its production bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Morocco, enhancing its global capacity and resilience [3] - The Vietnam base primarily produces water sports products and is expected to show strong profitability as global demand for outdoor sports increases [3] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.27 billion, 1.87 billion, and 2.40 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 250 million, 380 million, and 490 million yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]