Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Zhejiang Natural (605080) with a target price based on the last closing price of 31.97 [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, driven by new product launches and capacity releases, with a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4%, and a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, up 148.3% year-on-year [4][7] - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the company positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of TPU materials over PVC products and the emergence of new product categories [7] - The company has established a strategic focus on three core business areas: inflatable mattresses, waterproof/thermal bags, and water sports products, with expectations for stable growth and new market expansions [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 41.7% year-on-year [4][9] - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.7%, with a net profit margin of 18.5%, reflecting significant improvements in profitability due to effective cost control and operational efficiency [6][9] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.38 billion yuan in 2025, 2.01 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.57 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 270 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 494 million yuan respectively [9][10] Operational Highlights - The company has shown significant improvement in its operational capabilities, with inventory turnover days reduced by 5.9 days to 112 days, and accounts receivable turnover days increased by 5.5 days to 63 days [6] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 improved to 38.8%, indicating enhanced profitability from operational efficiencies [6] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is recognized for its technological strength and industry barriers, with a favorable outlook for continued growth in the outdoor sports supply chain [7] - The strategic expansion of production capacity in overseas locations such as Cambodia and Vietnam is expected to enhance profitability as orders increase [7]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Natural reported strong financial results for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational performance and effective cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, up 41.7% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue reached 210 million yuan, reflecting a 39.4% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 20 million yuan, reversing a loss of 30 million yuan from the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 360 million yuan, a 30.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, up 148.3% year-on-year [1][2]. Business Segments - The revenue growth in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by strong orders in the mattress, thermal box, and water sports products segments [2]. - The company is experiencing stable growth in new business areas, although short-term mattress orders are pressured by tariffs [2]. Future Outlook - Short-term domestic mattress orders are expected to remain under pressure, but with the gradual implementation of tariffs and capacity migration to Southeast Asia, the mattress segment is anticipated to recover steadily [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 270 million yuan, 340 million yuan, and 410 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 13X, 11X, and 9X [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company Zhejiang Natural (605080) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.002 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 185 million yuan, up 41.7% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to optimize its product structure and increase market share, leading to steady revenue growth, while overseas bases are accelerating their development [1][2] - The company’s overseas bases are entering a harvest period, with limited impact from tariffs, and profitability is expected to improve in 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 357 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, up 148.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q1 2025 was 38.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 26.9%, up 12.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] Product Structure and Growth - The revenue from air beds, bags, pillows, and other businesses in 2024 was 586 million, 204 million, 70 million, and 134 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 30.9%, 15.7%, and 48.0% [2] - The company is expanding its customer base in the new energy vehicle market and enhancing its product offerings in the camping sector [2] Overseas Expansion - The company has three main overseas bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Morocco, which are all developing simultaneously and are expected to enhance the company's global supply chain share [3] - The profitability of these overseas bases is anticipated to recover in 2025, reaching a stable level by 2026 [3] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 13 million yuan, with inventory turnover days at 112.08 days, a decrease of 5.91 days year-on-year [4] - The company is managing expenses effectively, with a total expense ratio of 7.98% in Q1 2025, down 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company Zhejiang Natural (605080) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.002 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 185 million yuan, up 41.7% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to optimize its product structure and increase market share, leading to steady revenue growth, while overseas bases are accelerating their development [1][2] - The company’s overseas bases are entering a harvest period, with limited impact from tariffs, and profitability is expected to recover in 2025 [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 357 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, up 148.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin in Q1 2025 was 38.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 26.9%, up 12.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 13 million yuan, a decrease of 21 million yuan year-on-year [4] Product Structure and Market Development - The revenue from air beds, bags, pillows, and other businesses in 2024 was 586 million, 204 million, 70 million, and 134 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 30.9%, 15.7%, and 48.0% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas bases, particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia, which are expected to enhance production efficiency and profitability [3][2] Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 290 million, 380 million, and 490 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.8X, 9.6X, and 7.5X [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of CNY 1.0 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit of CNY 190 million, reflecting a 42% increase [1]. - The company is actively expanding its product categories, with new products anticipated to drive rapid growth in 2025 [3]. - The company has a competitive advantage due to its integrated domestic supply chain and successful international production base expansion [4]. - The financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate strong growth in both revenue and net profit, with net profit expected to reach CNY 272 million in 2025, a 47.1% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 33.7%, with a net profit margin of 18.9% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 360 million, a 30% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 100 million, marking a 148% increase [2]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling CNY 28 million in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 15% [1]. Product and Market Expansion - The company has established stable long-term partnerships with major clients, including Decathlon, and expects its international sales to grow significantly [3]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that inflatable mattresses, bags, and other categories are expected to contribute significantly, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 31%, and 48% [3]. Operational Efficiency - The company is enhancing its production capabilities in various regions, including China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, which is expected to improve profitability [4]. - Inventory levels have increased, with a year-on-year rise of 34.4% by the end of 2024, but inventory turnover days have decreased, indicating effective inventory management [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued strong growth in its core inflatable mattress business and expects production capacity in overseas subsidiaries to ramp up smoothly [5]. - The financial projections suggest a robust growth trajectory, with expected revenues of CNY 1.37 billion in 2025, a 36.7% increase from 2024 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.002 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.75%, and a net profit of 185 million RMB, up 41.67% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 357 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 30.40%, with a net profit of 96 million RMB, which is a significant increase of 148.29% [2]. - The company is expanding its product categories beyond inflatable mattresses to include bags and water sports products, optimizing its product structure [2][3]. - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was reported at 33.72% and 38.83%, respectively, showing a stable increase [3]. - The company is leveraging its overseas production capabilities in Vietnam and Cambodia to enhance market share in waterproof bags and other categories [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company demonstrated strong growth in both 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant increases in revenue and net profit [2]. - Revenue breakdown for 2024 includes inflatable mattresses (586 million RMB), bags (204 million RMB), and other products, all showing positive growth rates [2]. Operational Analysis - The company is focusing on multi-category expansion, with notable growth in inflatable mattresses, bags, and cushions [2]. - The international market is a key growth area, with revenue from overseas markets reaching 800 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.07% [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.94, 2.68, and 3.32 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 9, and 7, indicating a favorable valuation [4]. - The report anticipates continued strong performance driven by effective management and product innovation [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 are projected to be 1.002 billion, 185 million, and 171 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 21.75%, 41.67%, and 25.04% [2] - The significant growth in net profit is attributed to the company's active market expansion, product structure optimization, and accelerated overseas capacity ramp-up [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.97 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 15.06% and a dividend yield of 0.80% [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 357 million, 96 million, and 86 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 30.40%, 148.29%, and 53.80% [2] - The gross margin, net profit margin, and net profit margin excluding non-recurring items for 2024 are projected to be 33.72%, 18.47%, and 17.07% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.12%, +2.6%, and +0.42 percentage points [6] - The company experienced a 35% increase in inventory year-on-year, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 20 days [8] Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the company's main product, outdoor inflatable mattresses, is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of over 20% due to new customer orders [9] - In the medium term, the insulated hard box and water sports products are anticipated to become new growth points, with high growth expected this year [9] - Long-term prospects remain strong due to the company's robust R&D capabilities in new materials and ongoing expansion in overseas markets, with revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.394 billion and 2.008 billion yuan respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The brand sector shows steady recovery in Q1 under consumer promotion policies, with most companies achieving positive growth, outperforming expectations. The performance varies across sub-sectors, with mid-to-high-end menswear showing strong growth, sports retail maintaining steady growth, and mass brands also experiencing a rebound. Profitability varies due to differentiated cost control and operational leverage [2][4][16] - The manufacturing sector faces short-term pressure as downstream inventory has reached healthy levels, but demand from major export countries is weakening. In Q1, demand from the US and Japan shows marginal weakening. Most brands and retailers have returned to healthy inventory levels, but weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum, affecting order elasticity in the related supply chain [2][4][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Brand Sector - Q1 retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6 percentage points [20] - Mid-to-high-end menswear brands are leading in retail growth, while the sports sector continues to show steady growth. Mass apparel brands are also experiencing a recovery [20][27] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is under short-term pressure due to weak demand from major export markets and healthy inventory levels. The overall order placement is cautious, with expectations of further pressure from tariff forecasts [4][28] Key Company Performance - **Wanjian Medical**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 30%-40%, driven by non-woven products and strong brand power in sanitary napkins [5][40] - **Zhejiang Natural**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 25%-35%, with net profit expected to increase by 50%-100% [5][40] - **Weixing Co.**: Expected Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% and double-digit net profit growth [5][40] - **Anta Sports**: Expected Q1 revenue growth in the high single digits, with FILA brand showing mid-to-low single-digit growth [6][20] - **361 Degrees**: Anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 10%-15% for adult apparel and around 15% for children's clothing, with e-commerce growth of about 20% [6][20] Inventory and Demand Trends - The inventory levels of most brands and retailers have returned to a healthy state, with the wholesale inventory destocking nearing completion. However, weak overseas demand is expected to limit replenishment momentum [4][28]