国庆假期期间，受海外流动性宽松预期提振，有色金属全面飘红，铜价再创阶段新高。受外盘和相关品 种带动，叠加近期印尼严打非法采矿加剧供应担忧，节后首日国内沪锡大幅走高，主力合约收涨 2.99%，报287090元/吨，刷新半年高位。成交量虽然较节前有显著下滑，但持仓量大幅提升，主力 sn2511合约排名前20持仓龙虎榜上，多头合计加仓4303手，空头增仓3994手，多空双方势均力敌。 数据来源：文华财经 国泰期货席位加空583手，同时加多188手，净多单减少395手。 瑞达期货席位多空均有增持，加空475手，高于多单增加幅度，净空持仓增加231手。 整体来看，近期LME库存再度回落且0-3结构频繁变动，流动性担忧仍有隐患，叠加原料供应维持偏紧 格局，刺激锡价上涨。另一方面，印尼严厉打击非法采矿引发市场担忧情绪，不过，此次严打旨在加强 对本国锡产业管控，关停的非法矿点多为小型矿企，印尼主要的锡冶炼企业大多拥有正规的自有矿源或 稳定的合法供应渠道，因此其精锡的正式生产和出口预计不会受到严重冲击。10月初国内云锡将结束检 修恢复生产，大部分冶炼厂在假期内保持正常生产，同时缅甸矿运输也逐渐恢复，整体供应有望小幅增 加。需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 3.99 billion and a net profit of 120 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 30.0% respectively [1] - The company’s profitability is expected to recover gradually, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 365 million, 404 million, and 439 million, reflecting significant growth rates of 198.0%, 10.7%, and 8.7% respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.99 billion, down 9.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million, down 30.0% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items was 190 million, down 11.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.99 billion, a decrease of 14.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 20 million, down 53.2% year-on-year [1] Product and Regional Performance - By product category in H1 2025, revenue from food processing machines, nutrition pots, and Western-style electrical appliances was 1.43 billion, 1.84 billion, and 850 million respectively, with growth rates of 13.6%, 4.7%, and a decline of 10.0% [2] - In terms of regional performance, domestic revenue was 3.56 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 830 million, down 9.7% year-on-year [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 27.2%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.1%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s operating expenses showed mixed results, with sales expenses decreasing by 0.9 percentage points and management expenses increasing by 0.2 percentage points in H1 2025 [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating a strong rebound in 2025 followed by moderate growth in subsequent years [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's outlook suggests a moderate increase in consumption, reflecting a positive trend in the economy [1]

Domestic Economic Recovery - During the May Day holiday, inter-regional personnel flow increased significantly, with approximately 630 million trips made, representing a growth of 37.1% compared to 2019 and 5% compared to 2024 [1][4][6] - Various modes of transportation saw growth, with road travel accounting for 570 million trips, a 37.2% increase from 2019, and rail and air travel also showing significant increases [6][9][11] - The subway passenger volume reached a historical high, with major cities reporting an average of 63.21 million trips per day, a 2% increase from 2024 and 18.8% from 2019 [11][10] - Domestic tourism was robust, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing nearly 20% year-on-year, and rural tourism orders growing over 40% [14][15] - The film market underperformed, with box office revenue dropping 51.6% year-on-year during the first three days of the holiday [17] Real Estate Sales - New home sales were at a historical low for the same period, with a cumulative sales area of approximately 325.8 million square meters, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year [21][23] - In contrast, second-hand home sales reached a historical high, with a cumulative sales area of 259.1 million square meters, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [23] Global Asset Performance - Global stock indices mostly rose during the May Day holiday, with the MSCI global index increasing by 2.7% [2][24] - The U.S. stock market saw gains across major indices, with the industrial sector performing the best [26] - The bond market experienced mixed results, with U.S. Treasury yields rising while most other countries' bond yields fell [30][31] - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while the Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar [36] Overseas Economic Developments - The U.S. job market remained stable, with expectations of three interest rate cuts this year, while trade tensions with Europe continued to influence monetary policy [3][38][40] - U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3% due to increased imports, which were driven by tariff expectations [41] - The U.S. and China are expected to ease trade tensions, with ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs [48]