Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.59 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 120 million yuan, an increase of 26.0% [1] - The company's non-recurring net profit reached 190 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.2% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.6 billion yuan, down 11.0% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders surged to 1 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 101.1% [1] Revenue and Profitability - The core retail categories showed positive growth, with online sales of the Joyoung brand's products such as wall-breaking machines, soybean milk machines, and rice cookers increasing by 4.7%, 26.5%, and 5.0% respectively in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 26.9%, while Q3 gross profit margin rose by 4.4 percentage points to 26.2% [2][3] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 improved by 0.7 percentage points to 2.2%, and for Q3, it increased by 4.6 percentage points to 0.1% [4] Expense Ratios - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance showed mixed trends, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 16.4% for the first three quarters of 2025, while the management expense ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.3% [3] - In Q3 2025, the sales expense ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 18.5%, while the management expense ratio increased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.9% [3] Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 151 million yuan, 184 million yuan, and 220 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 23.2%, 21.9%, and 19.6% [4]

Group 1 - During the National Day holiday, the expectation of overseas liquidity easing boosted the non-ferrous metals market, with copper prices reaching a new high [1] - On the first trading day after the holiday, domestic tin prices surged, with the main contract closing up 2.99% at 287,090 yuan/ton, marking a six-month high [1] - Although trading volume significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, open interest increased substantially, indicating a balanced position between long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Specific trading positions showed that Dongzheng Futures increased long positions by 1,056 contracts, significantly outpacing the increase in short positions, resulting in a net long position increase of 880 contracts [2] - Citic Futures also saw increases in both long and short positions, with long positions rising by 374 contracts to 1,144 contracts, ranking third [2] - Other futures firms like GF Futures and Dongwu Futures increased long positions by over 400 contracts while slightly reducing short positions, indicating a decrease in net short positions [2] Group 3 - Overall, LME inventory has declined again, and liquidity concerns remain, contributing to the rise in tin prices [3] - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining has raised market concerns, but the impact on major tin smelting companies is expected to be limited due to their stable supply channels [3] - Domestic tin production is set to resume after maintenance, and supply is expected to slightly increase, while demand remains weak, with attention on consumption trends in October [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 3.99 billion and a net profit of 120 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 30.0% respectively [1] - The company’s profitability is expected to recover gradually, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 365 million, 404 million, and 439 million, reflecting significant growth rates of 198.0%, 10.7%, and 8.7% respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.99 billion, down 9.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million, down 30.0% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items was 190 million, down 11.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.99 billion, a decrease of 14.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 20 million, down 53.2% year-on-year [1] Product and Regional Performance - By product category in H1 2025, revenue from food processing machines, nutrition pots, and Western-style electrical appliances was 1.43 billion, 1.84 billion, and 850 million respectively, with growth rates of 13.6%, 4.7%, and a decline of 10.0% [2] - In terms of regional performance, domestic revenue was 3.56 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 830 million, down 9.7% year-on-year [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 27.2%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.1%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s operating expenses showed mixed results, with sales expenses decreasing by 0.9 percentage points and management expenses increasing by 0.2 percentage points in H1 2025 [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating a strong rebound in 2025 followed by moderate growth in subsequent years [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's outlook suggests a moderate increase in consumption, reflecting a positive trend in the economy [1]

Domestic Economic Recovery - During the May Day holiday, inter-regional personnel flow increased significantly, with approximately 630 million trips made, representing a growth of 37.1% compared to 2019 and 5% compared to 2024 [1][4][6] - Various modes of transportation saw growth, with road travel accounting for 570 million trips, a 37.2% increase from 2019, and rail and air travel also showing significant increases [6][9][11] - The subway passenger volume reached a historical high, with major cities reporting an average of 63.21 million trips per day, a 2% increase from 2024 and 18.8% from 2019 [11][10] - Domestic tourism was robust, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing nearly 20% year-on-year, and rural tourism orders growing over 40% [14][15] - The film market underperformed, with box office revenue dropping 51.6% year-on-year during the first three days of the holiday [17] Real Estate Sales - New home sales were at a historical low for the same period, with a cumulative sales area of approximately 325.8 million square meters, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year [21][23] - In contrast, second-hand home sales reached a historical high, with a cumulative sales area of 259.1 million square meters, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [23] Global Asset Performance - Global stock indices mostly rose during the May Day holiday, with the MSCI global index increasing by 2.7% [2][24] - The U.S. stock market saw gains across major indices, with the industrial sector performing the best [26] - The bond market experienced mixed results, with U.S. Treasury yields rising while most other countries' bond yields fell [30][31] - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while the Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar [36] Overseas Economic Developments - The U.S. job market remained stable, with expectations of three interest rate cuts this year, while trade tensions with Europe continued to influence monetary policy [3][38][40] - U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3% due to increased imports, which were driven by tariff expectations [41] - The U.S. and China are expected to ease trade tensions, with ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs [48]