行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 (8621)23297818× liujl@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 09 日 内销政策拉动延续，关税扰动出口 不改长期趋势 看好 ——家电行业 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 25 年 1-5 月空调内销增长、外销高增，地产+以旧换新政策催化白电、大厨电需求。根据产业在线 数据显示，2025 年 1-5 月空调行业实现累计产量 10154 万台，同比增长 8%；2025 年 1-5 月空调 行业实现销量 10349 万台，同比增长 9%，其中内销量同比增长 7%。冰箱 2025 年 1-5 月内销量同 比增长 1%；洗衣机 2025 年 1-5 月内销量同增长 10%。出口方面，20 ...

2025-07-02 15:41:48 作者：狼叫兽 "系统升级"提示引发虚惊一场，发改委与财政部紧急辟谣：这不是终点，而是1380亿元新一轮补贴的起点。2025年7月，随着多地"国补系统暂停"页面陆 续恢复亮起绿灯，一场由政策调整引发的消费焦虑终于尘埃落定。国家发改委与财政部联合发声，澄清此前"额度用尽"提示仅为阶段性技术调配，全国统 一截止时间仍锁定2025年12月31日。首批1620亿资金在短短5个月内消耗过半后，中央财政果断追加1380亿元，"真金白银"的消费红利正加速驶入下半 场。 首先,划重点!家电家居国补资格的领取方法入口是:京东APP搜「家电省2000」国补直接立减2000元,手机数码国补的领取方法入口是:京东APP搜「手机省 500」或「数码省2000」领2000元补贴资格。 一定要先领,名额有限! 秘诀:先在app搜一下上面的口令,以后每天点历史搜索记录就可以! 一、暂停真相：资金消耗超预期，7月重启规则升级1. "秒光"的额度与紧急调配 - 截至5月底，全国3000亿补贴资金池消耗超1500亿元，河南、湖南等多地 告急： * 重庆：首批12亿家电补贴6月初耗尽； * 山东：每日500万额 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance industry is expected to experience significant retail growth during the 2025 618 shopping festival, driven by low-priced small appliances and sustained growth in major appliance categories, with leading companies benefiting from policy incentives and leading the upgrade of product structures [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Growth and Performance - The overall retail performance of the home appliance industry has significantly improved, with online sales accelerating during the 618 shopping festival, showing a weighted average year-on-year growth of +15% across 20 representative categories [2]. - High-priced major appliances saw volume growth, while average prices remained stable, with air conditioners, washing machines, and black appliances experiencing retail growth rates exceeding 20% [2]. - Low-priced small appliances also showed strong performance, with online average prices for products like rice cookers, pressure cookers, and air fryers increasing by over 10% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Leading Brands and Product Upgrades - Leading brands performed exceptionally well during the 618 shopping festival, with Midea's retail sales growing over 20% and Gree's air conditioner sales leading the market, particularly the "Wind Does Not Blow" series, which saw a 240% year-on-year increase [3]. - In the black appliance sector, Hisense maintained a 24% market share in television sales, with strong performance in the high-end market [3]. - The cleaning appliance segment saw strong growth, with Ecovacs and Roborock leading in sales, achieving first and second place in the 618 shopping festival [3]. Group 3: Subsidy Policies and Market Outlook - The continuation of the national subsidy program for appliance replacements is expected, with approximately 500 billion yuan in subsidy funds utilized by the end of May, indicating a faster-than-expected pace [4]. - An additional 138 billion yuan in central funds will be allocated in July and October 2025, ensuring a steady release of demand in the home appliance sector [4]. - The home appliance industry is anticipated to maintain stable demand release in the second half of 2025, supported by a more balanced use of subsidy funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall has slightly decreased this week, indicating mixed trends across various product categories with some experiencing price increases while others face declines [1]. Price Index Summary - The total price index for Linyi Mall this week is 102.89 points, down 0.02 points or 0.02% from the previous week [1]. - Among 14 categories, 5 saw price increases, 1 remained stable, and 8 experienced declines [1]. Furniture Category - The furniture category index rose to 89.09 points, increasing by 0.21 points, driven by growing demand, particularly for mattresses [2]. - The price of beds and related products saw significant increases, while prices for chairs and sofas remained stable [2]. Home Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment - The index for home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased to 103.26 points, up 0.04 points [3]. - Kitchen and cooling appliances led the price increases, with stable sales for air conditioners and other seasonal products [3]. Building and Decoration Materials - The building and decoration materials index rose to 105.75 points, up 0.03 points [4]. - Despite a seasonal downturn in construction, prices for certain materials like paint and valves saw slight increases [4]. Steel Category - The steel category index fell to 98.46 points, down 0.11 points [5]. - A decline in demand and reduced market activity contributed to the downward trend in prices for pipes and sheets [5]. Agricultural Inputs - The agricultural inputs index decreased to 87.06 points, down 0.05 points [6]. - Seasonal demand drops led to price reductions for items like agricultural films and breeding tools, while some pesticides saw price increases due to rising demand [6]. Daily Necessities - The daily necessities index fell to 102.79 points, down 0.03 points [7]. - Prices for various consumer goods, including crafts and bags, decreased, influenced by high temperatures and promotional activities from e-commerce platforms [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, highlighting a significant acceleration in retail sales during the 2025 618 shopping festival, driven by low-priced small appliances and sustained growth in major appliance categories, with leading companies benefiting from policy incentives and ongoing product upgrades [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The home appliance industry experienced a notable uplift in overall sales during the 618 shopping festival, with a weighted average year-on-year growth rate of +15% for 20 representative categories in online retail sales from May 12 to June 15, 2025 [1] - The online retail volume and price growth rates for these 20 core categories were +13% and +1% respectively, indicating a strong performance in both volume and pricing [1] - Major appliances like air conditioners, washing machines, and black goods saw retail growth rates exceeding 20%, while low-priced small appliances also experienced significant growth, with online prices for rice cookers, pressure cookers, and air fryers rising over 10% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Leading brands performed exceptionally well during the 618 shopping festival, with Midea's retail sales increasing over 20% and Gree's air conditioner sales leading the market, particularly the "Wind Does Not Blow" series, which saw a 240% year-on-year increase [2] - Other notable performers included Little Swan, COLMO, Haier, and Casarte in the white goods sector, while Hisense led the black goods market with a 24% share, particularly excelling in the high-end segment [2] - In the cleaning appliance category, Ecovacs maintained the top position in total sales, with Stone Technology achieving rapid growth, ranking first and second in sales for sweeping and washing machines respectively during the festival [2] Group 3: Subsidy and Demand Outlook - Concerns arose regarding the continuity of subsidy programs after notifications of pauses in certain regions, but data indicates that the usage of subsidy funds has accelerated since May, with approximately 50 billion yuan utilized by the end of May 2025 [3] - The central government is expected to allocate an additional 138 billion yuan in subsidies in July and October, ensuring a steady and orderly implementation of the policy through the end of the year [3] - The home appliance replacement program is anticipated to maintain a steady demand release in the second half of 2025, supported by a more stable pace of subsidy fund usage [3]

Core Viewpoint - Energy conservation and efficiency enhancement have become strategic choices for sustainable economic development and the future of humanity in the context of severe global climate change and accelerated energy structure transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Consumption and Challenges - In 2024, China's primary energy consumption reached 5.96 billion tons of standard coal, with oil and natural gas import rates exceeding 70% and 40% respectively, indicating increasing energy security risks [2]. - Energy consumption intensity in China decreased by 3.8% year-on-year in 2024, with a cumulative reduction of 11.6% over the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan, meeting the planned target timeline [2]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives and Economic Impact - A new round of large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacements was initiated in 2024, with the aim of enhancing technology, energy consumption, and emissions standards [3]. - By May 31, 2025, the old-for-new consumer goods program generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers [4]. - Investment in equipment and tools grew by 15.7% in 2024, contributing 2.2 percentage points to overall investment growth [4]. Group 3: Industry Upgrades and Green Transformation - The "Two New" policy has significantly stimulated production growth in the equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors, with the equipment manufacturing industry's added value increasing by 7.7% in 2024 [5]. - The implementation of the "Two New" standards has led to the release of 168 important standards related to energy consumption and pollutant emissions [5]. - The estimated energy savings from the "Two New" policy in 2024 amounted to approximately 28 million tons of standard coal, resulting in a reduction of about 73 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - To build a modernized nation and ensure energy security, China must adhere to a priority on energy conservation, aiming for a comprehensive transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control by 2030 [6]. - The contribution of energy conservation to the reduction of carbon emission intensity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to be around 50%, serving as a crucial support for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [6].

"618"购物节期间，广西家电消费市场迎来销售高峰。记者走访发现，"小而美"的智能迷你家电凭 借精准的产品定位和智能化功能强势出圈，成为年轻消费者的心头好。 6月20日，记者走进南宁百货大楼股份有限公司家电分公司（以下简称南百家电），年轻消费者甘 女士向记者展示她新购置的台面净水器。"这款净水器优惠后2400元，虽然价格不菲，但健康饮水必须 重视。"甘女士表示。据介绍，这款产品不仅过滤效果出色，还能智能调节多档水温，满足泡茶、冲咖 啡等不同需求。 "今年'618'活动期间，传统的电饭锅、电磁炉等常规电器销量虽有增长，但增幅相对较小，而清洁 类产品如扫地机器人、洗地机，以及台面净水器等智能迷你家电，销售基本实现翻倍增长。"南百家电 客户经理李春志介绍。 在卖场销售区，一款小天鹅迷你洗衣机吸引了不少消费者驻足。该产品专为洗涤内衣、袜子等小件 衣物设计，自带烘干功能，活动价仅1999元，成为爆款产品。 苏宁易购南宁朝阳总店同样收获颇丰。该店督导农勤汝透露："我们整体小家电销售增长超30％， 其中迷你家电最受年轻人欢迎，小风扇、小电饭锅、小养生壶的销量一路飙升。" 店内，消费者莫女 士正体验一台语音操控电风扇："线上 ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：刘正/刘嘉玲 风险提示：原材料价格和海运运费波动风险，新品推广不及预期风险。 公司进一步开拓东南亚地区经销商。2025Q1，SharkNinja APAC 携手泰国大型电子产品零售商Power Buy 正式进入泰国市场，并于3 月举办了Shark CleanSenseiQ+无绳吸尘器发布会，展示了CleanSense iQ+吸尘器产品。公司在亚太地区完成日本、韩国、澳新等市场的布局后，实现收入高速增长，并进一 步拓展东南亚市场，成为新的增长点。 九阳分部阶段性承压。中国市场主要通过九阳分部拓展，公司在24 年不断推出高品质、新技术的小家 电新产品，如零涂层不粘电饭煲40N9U Pro、热小净R5 Pro、全能破壁营养大师Y8 等，在风冷系统、全 链路抗菌等方面进行升级。在整体厨房小电销售疲软的背景下，九阳内销市场取得超过行业的增长，渠 道方面，九阳把握内容电商等发展机遇，同时强化零售终端等渠道建设，提升零售动销能力。 盈利预测与投资评级。公司SN 亚太分部实现快速增长，但九阳分部仍有所承压，我们下调25 年盈利预 测为0.63 亿美元（前值为1.07 亿美元），新增26/27 年盈 ...

上 市 公 司 公 家用电器 2025 年 06 月 20 日 JS 环球生活 (01691) 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 1.95 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8527.07 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 2.22/1.24 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 67.06 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,474.57 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0949 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -19% 31% 81% HSCEI JS环球生活 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 程恺雯 (8621)23297818× chengkw@swsresearch.com ——SN 亚太分部延续快速增长，九阳分部阶段性承压 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 ...

前些天我们刚聊过关于国补暂停的事儿。 这刚过 618 ，今儿广西也发通知表示 " 暂停消费品以旧换新补贴活动 " 。 该通知称，从 6 月 20 日 24:00 起暂停汽车置换更新、家电以旧换新、3C 数码购新、电动自行车以旧换新、家装厨卫 " 焕新 " 补贴活动。 然后又引发了部分网友热议，不少网友表示 " 都扛不住了 " 、" 没钱了 " ...... 实际情况并非网友们担心的这样哈。 首先，在这个 618 电商大促期间，虽然有重庆、江苏、广东等不少地方传出暂停国补的消息。 但是并不是全国范围内，还有不少地方在同步实施。 可以说是家电、数码全线飘红哇！ 很明显，大家依然在 " 疯狂剁手 " ，且领国补消费也是大有人在。 部分地区暂停国补，大多也是因为补贴核销速度远超预期，让第一批补贴资金 " 光速 " 耗尽，所以才发公告进行中场休息。 就拿今年这个 618 来说，也实在是太强了。 根据某东最新公开的战报，618 单某东平台，下单用户数同比增长超 100% ，总订单量突破 22 亿单（含零售、线下业态及外卖业务），创历史新高。 更重要的是，北京、深圳等 7 省市的家电家居以旧换新成交额，同比增长超 100% ...