Core Viewpoint - The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry is facing a significant crisis as distributors are increasingly unwilling to take on major brands, leading to a potential collapse of the distribution channel system [10][11][52]. Group 1: Distributor Dynamics - Historically, when manufacturers wanted to change distributors, there were many willing to take over, but now major brands are struggling to find new distributors as many are voluntarily exiting [3][5]. - Distributors are now actively reducing their operations, cutting ties with brands that do not provide immediate profitability, regardless of whether they are large or small [28][48]. - The shift from distributors merely complaining about profitability to outright refusing to engage in business marks a critical change in the industry [26][27]. Group 2: Channel Environment Stages - The deterioration of the channel environment can be categorized into three stages: 1. Deterioration of manufacturer-distributor relationships due to issues like stock pressure and unprofitability [15]. 2. A worsening channel environment characterized by increased control by manufacturers over distributor sales teams and the rise of direct supply models that limit distributor opportunities [20][22]. 3. Active contraction by distributors, who are now cutting brands that do not yield profits, indicating a severe crisis in the deep distribution model [25][29]. Group 3: Challenges in Brand Management - Major brands are losing their ability to innovate and push new products, which is essential for maintaining market relevance [36][40]. - The traditional dual-driven model of brand and channel distribution is failing, leading to an over-reliance on channel-driven strategies that disrupt the overall distribution system [41][40]. - Frequent changes in distributors are damaging brand reputation and market stability, making it increasingly difficult to find new distributors willing to take on the brands [43][45]. Group 4: Future Directions for Manufacturers and Distributors - Manufacturers need to rethink their channel strategies, focusing on direct supply to large retailers and fostering new types of operators who can drive innovation [58][59]. - Distributors have several options moving forward, including engaging with B2B platforms, transitioning to operational roles, or reducing their market presence [61][62][64]. - The emergence of new operational models that integrate online and offline strategies is crucial for revitalizing the industry and ensuring sustainability [66][70].

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu is currently one of the most prominent players in the liquor industry, showing significant revenue and net profit growth in 2024, with increases of 16.41% and 20.22% respectively, and maintaining double-digit growth into Q1 2025 [3][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Gujinggongjiu's revenue from its core product "Nianfen Yuanjiang" reached 18.086 billion, accounting for 76.71% of total revenue, with a 5% increase in ton price [7][11]. - The company reported a sales expense of 6.182 billion in 2024, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, with promotional and advertising expenses also exceeding revenue growth [12]. Market Position and Strategy - Gujinggongjiu has established a strong foothold in the Anhui market, benefiting from local economic growth and government support for the liquor industry [14][16]. - The company aims to maintain a stable pricing strategy across its product range, but faces challenges with the "Nianfen Yuanjiang" product amid ongoing debates about authenticity [11][12]. Distribution and Sales Channels - The company employs a deep distribution strategy, controlling the market through direct sales teams and partnerships with distributors, but struggles with national expansion [16][20]. - In 2024, Gujinggongjiu's revenue from the central region (including Anhui) was 20.15 billion, with a growth rate of 17.8%, indicating a need for further expansion outside its home market [20][21]. Management and Governance - Gujinggongjiu's management team is primarily composed of internal members, providing stability and a strong incentive structure, although potential leadership changes in 2026 could pose risks [22][23]. - The company has a well-defined strategic direction, focusing on channel strength and market penetration, but faces uncertainties regarding future leadership continuity [22][23].