这次港股真是热闹，10只新股扎堆上市，先上的6只全涨，只要中签就是闭眼捡钱。 | 已递表 | 可认购 | 待上市(暗) | 已上市 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称代码 | 上市日期↓ | 直日涨跌幅 / | 暗盘涨跌幅 / | | 瑞博生物-B | 2026-01-09 | +41.62% | +29.03% | | HK 06938 | | | | | 金浔资源 | 2026-01-09 | +26.00% | +35.40% | | HK 03636 | | | | | MINIMAX-WP | 2026-01-09 +109.09% | | +26.79% | | HK 00100 ▼ | | | | | 智谱 | 2026-01-08 | +13.17% | +5.16% | | HK 02513 ♥ | | | | | 天数智芯 | 2026-01-08 | +8.44% | +36.93% | | HK 09903 | | | | | 精锋医疗-B | 2026-01-08 | +30.90% | +37.84% | | HK 02675 | | | | 当然，重 ...

今天分享的是：港股IPO放量的影响与高效打新策略 报告共计：25页 港股IPO市场动态与打新策略总结 2025年港股IPO市场显著回暖，截至12月12日，港股主板已有99家公司上市，合计募资超2500亿港元，占今年中资股IPO募资总额的 67%，创近10年新高。伴随IPO活跃度提升，港股打新热度同步高涨，2025年打新胜率升至73%，表观收益率达34%，均较往年明显提 升，但平均一手中签率回落至20%，为近10年最低。 从市场特征来看，港股IPO存在几点易被误解的特点。其一，港股实行注册制，但2016年以来上市率仅37%，递表数量与实际上市数量差 异较大，企业上市成功率受多方因素制约。其二，港股打新无市值要求，参与门槛低，且需全额缴款，未必造成二级市场资金"抽水"。 其三，港股支持杠杆打新，中签率显著高于A股，加之结算周期缩短至T+2，资金使用效率更高。其四，受发行定价机制影响，港股新股 首日破发率显著高于A股，2016年以来平均破发率达45%，精选标的至关重要。 从关键时点影响来看，大型IPO对二级市场整体影响不显著，但对可选消费、科技等行业有一定提振作用；上市至入通阶段是打新赚钱 窗口，绝对收益和超额收益 ...

港股打新也能被收割？有投资者自曝"一夜亏损185万"。事件起因是一位网名为"我是冤大头"的港股打 新投资者，在大V"瞪羚社"的诱导下，参与翰思艾泰-B国际配售，结果赚钱不成反亏损。 大V"瞪羚社"是如何吸引投资者跟随的呢？比如，就曾在私域社群（知识星球）中宣称，"翰思艾泰-B 是稀缺的细胞治疗平台型公司，基石投资者阵容强大，通过我的渠道可优先拿到国配额度。"在持续推 荐与承诺下，上述投资者真就通过该大V推荐的第三方通道支付了认购款项，共通过2个账户累计投入 翰思艾泰503.7万，成功参与所谓的"国际配售"。 又是如何在一夜间亏损185万？这从翰思艾泰-B在12月23日上市首日表现中确可推断，首日大幅下跌， 收盘较发行价跌去46.25%，市值缩水至约20亿元，导致配售隔日便亏损36.73%，其503.7万投资对应亏 损金额185万。 虽然港股新股发行火爆，但破发也在增多。翰思艾泰-B已成为年内港股生物科技板块破发幅度最大的个 股，也使得公司上市前被赋予的成长空间瞬间化为泡沫。有业内人士预判，随着市场情绪转向理性，港 股18A或将进入上市破发期，此前愈演愈烈的18A企业上市热潮可能迎来拐点。 此次事件中，"大V带 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market, which has been thriving throughout the year, is now experiencing a downturn with increasing first-day loss rates for newly listed stocks as the year comes to a close [1][3]. Group 1: IPO Performance - In November and December, there were 11 and 20 new listings respectively, marking a high monthly volume for the year [1]. - The first-day loss rate for new stocks has risen significantly, with 5 companies in November and 10 in December experiencing price drops below their issue prices, leading to a 50% first-day loss rate in December, which is notably higher than the year-to-date average of 29% [1][3]. - On December 22, four newly listed stocks collectively faced first-day losses, with Mindray Hospital (02581.HK) plummeting nearly 50%, marking the worst debut performance of the year [3]. Group 2: Subscription Trends - The subscription multiples for new IPOs have been declining sharply, indicating a weakening profit potential for investors, despite an increase in the chances of winning allocations [3]. - The phenomenon of "one signature hard to obtain" has diminished, with higher winning rates but lower profitability for investors [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is a notable structural differentiation in new stock performances, with some stocks like Mindray Hospital and Hanshi Aitai-B (03378.HK) experiencing significant declines, while others like Guoxia Technology (02655.HK) and Nobi Can (02635.HK) have seen substantial gains [3][4]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have expressed concerns over the declining quality of new listings and compliance issues [5]. - The IPO issuance has accelerated as the year-end approaches, with a significant increase in companies passing the listing hearing and applying for IPOs in December compared to November [5][6]. Group 4: Market Pressure - As of December 17, there were 298 companies in the IPO hearing stage, with 28 new additions in December, indicating a growing backlog of IPO applications [6]. - The current IPO market shows signs of overheating, with potential pressure on the secondary market due to the high volume of new listings, which could exacerbate liquidity issues [6].

12月22日，港股上市的4家公司集体破发。 这是港股市场2025年内首现4只新股上市首日集体破发的景象。 当日收盘，华芢生物、明基医院、南华期货股份、印象大红袍首日破发幅度分别达到29%、49%、 24%、35%。 作为创新药企，华芢生物仍未实现规模化收入，2025年前三季度收入接近0；明基医院旗下虽然坐拥南 京明基和苏州明基等医院，但2025年上半年净亏利润仍为0.53亿元，同比缩水了近1/4。 从整体来看，今年港股IPO的首日破发率并不算高。年内，港股市场一共有31只新股上市首日破发，占 当期新股数量的比例为29%左右，较2024年全年下滑了7个百分点。 明基医院更是刷新年内港股新股上市首日破发幅度的记录。此前这一"尴尬"纪录的保持者是海螺材料科 技，其2025年1月5日上市首日较发行价跌去48%。 如今，这4只新股依旧深陷破发的泥潭中。 截至发稿前，明基医院、华芢生物、印象大红袍、南华期货股份上市次日的盘中价较发行价跌幅仍达到 48%、42%、38%、23%。 这一方面与港股市场整体表现承压有关，二级市场的估值中枢下移，直接压缩了一级市场的溢价空间。 今年10月迄今，恒生科技指数已跌去近17%，最大回撤 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has significantly recovered this year, with approximately 99 companies raising over 250 billion HKD, making it the primary channel for Chinese companies' IPOs, accounting for 67% of total fundraising, the highest in nearly a decade [6][9]. - The average first-day loss rate for new stocks has increased since Q4, and historical data shows that the main profits from IPOs in Hong Kong often come from a small number of high-quality stocks with high odds [14][26]. - The estimated IPO fundraising scale for 2026 is around 330 billion HKD, reflecting a 20% increase compared to this year, driven by a rich pipeline of 314 companies currently in the listing process [13][9]. Group 2 - The relationship between primary market financing and secondary market performance is weakly positively correlated, suggesting that active IPO financing does not negatively impact the secondary market [2][31]. - Historical data from 2016 shows that large IPOs do not have a significant overall impact on the secondary market, but certain sectors like consumer discretionary and technology may experience positive effects [49][52]. - The performance of new stocks from listing to inclusion in the Stock Connect is generally a good window for profit, with median absolute and excess returns being positive during this period [55][48]. Group 3 - A quantitative model for selecting IPO projects is crucial due to the significant performance differentiation of new stocks in the Hong Kong market, which has a relatively loose listing mechanism and a highly market-driven pricing mechanism [64][65]. - The model incorporates five indicators, including market sentiment, company fundamentals, and issuance characteristics, to improve the selection of IPO projects and potentially increase returns by approximately 15% for those scoring above the median [64][88]. - The average first-day return for IPOs has shown a significant increase this year, with a notable rise in the number of projects achieving returns above 40% [68][66].

据Wind数据统计，11月以来，港股20只上市新股中有9只首日破发，破发率达到35%。这一破发率远超2024年的35.71%和今年上半年的30.23%。 京东工业是刘强东第六家上市公司。此前，其已有5家上市企业，包括京东集团（9618.HK，JD.O）、京东健康（6618.HK）、京东物流（2618.HK）、德邦 股份（603056.SH）、达达集团（后私有化退市）。 红星资本局12月11日消息，四度冲刺IPO的京东工业（7618.HK）今日在港交所挂牌上市，然而开盘即破发，较发行价下跌7.8%。随后股价小幅回升，午后 一度转涨，最高触及14.15港元/股。 截至收盘，京东工业收报14.1港元/股，持平发行价，总市值379亿港元。 | < W | 京东工业(7618) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 闭市 12-11 16:08:07 | | | 1 4. 1 0 0 额 5.43亿 股本 26.88亿 市盈 "" 37.5 | | | | 0.000 0.00% | 换 1.47% 市值 379亿 市净" 34.50 | | | 时间 16:00 | 价格 14.100 涨跌 -0. ...

2025年堪称近年港股打新的"赚钱效应大年"，多只新股首日涨幅超100%。 港交所8月推出新规 多位港股业内人士在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，2025年以来，港交所新股市场整体强劲， 但多数呈现"高开低走"特征，原因在于认购热情高涨、超额认购显著推动股价首日大幅高开。这与前几 年港股打新热的"高认购+高波动"相似，但2025年的新股表现更分化，头部龙头抗跌，中小票更易"过山 车"。此现象并非基本面恶化，而是"高估值发行+短线杠杆+存量博弈"的结果，制度设计与资金偏好也 让打新成为短期价格发现与筹码再分配的"一锤子买卖"。 2025年港股打新热度几何？在港股新股认购倍数榜单中，年内登场的多只新股强势霸榜，屡次改写港股 打新纪录。 二级市场的交易热情也持续高涨。2025年大多数新股都在券商暗盘交易或上市首日出现较大幅度的涨 幅，从20%至330%不等。 "在投资者参与热情高涨，但可分配股份量减少的双重作用下，今年港股新股超额认购倍数更为突出， 市场一度出现'一股难求'的局面。这种供需失衡的格局，直接导致新股上市后短期内股价大幅上 涨。"光大证券国际证券策略师伍礼贤在接受记者采访时表示，2025年港股二级市 ...

今年堪称近年港股打新的"赚钱效应大年"，多只新股首日涨幅超100%。但热度褪去后，"高开低走、昙 花一现"却成为贯穿全年新股市场的主流态势。 此外，钧达股份（HK02865）、圣贝拉（HK02508）、新琪安（HK02573）、禾赛-W（HK02525）等 均走出高开低走的"过山车"行情。 汇生国际资本有限公司总裁黄立冲分析道，在今年打新资金里，保证金融资和短线杠杆比例依然很高， 公开认购倍数动辄上千倍、个别项目上万倍，散户中签率低于1%，这类资金的目标就是"首日兑现"， 不会愿意长期陪跑。"上市首日冲高时，庄家、配售资金和打新散户一起出货，流动性集中在1至2天内 释放，之后成交额迅速萎缩，股价就容易沿着获利盘的成本区间一路往下'踩踏'。" 其中，最具代表性的是以超过1.15万倍的公开发售超额认购倍数、刷新港股新股历史纪录的金叶国际集 团（HK08549）。作为港股史上首只"万倍认购股"，金叶国际集团上市首日收盘涨幅高达330%，但此 后股价一路走跌。截至12月2日收盘，其报收每股0.40港元，已跌破0.5港元的发售价。 多位港股业内人士在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，2025年以来，港股新股市场整体强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first-day trading of Haiwei Co. shares resulted in a decline, breaking the record of over 2500 times subscription without a drop in Hong Kong IPO history, indicating a negative impact on market sentiment [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yujian Xiaomian, established in 2014, operates as a modern Chinese noodle restaurant chain, primarily featuring Chongqing noodles, and has expanded its menu to include various spicy and non-spicy dishes [3][4]. - As of June 30, 2025, Yujian Xiaomian operates 417 restaurants across China, with 331 being directly operated and 86 franchised [4]. - The company ranks as the fourth largest Chinese noodle restaurant operator by total merchandise transaction volume and thirteenth in the overall Chinese fast food market [5][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yujian Xiaomian's revenue grew from 418 million RMB in 2022 to 1.154 billion RMB in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 66.2% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 703.2 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.77%, and a net profit of 41.83 million RMB, up 95.77% [7]. - The average order value has shown a declining trend from 36.1 RMB in 2022 to 32.0 RMB in 2024, while employee costs increased significantly from 109 million RMB in 2022 to 265 million RMB in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The market for Chinese noodle restaurants is highly fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 2.9% of the market share, while Yujian Xiaomian holds 0.5% [12]. - The company aims to differentiate itself by combining Sichuan-Chongqing flavors with standardized management practices, allowing for taste standardization and replicability [12]. - Yujian Xiaomian plans to open approximately 120 to 150 new restaurants in 2025, with further expansions planned for 2026 and 2027, indicating a strong commitment to market capture [12]. Group 4: IPO and Valuation - The IPO of Yujian Xiaomian involved issuing shares representing 13.7% of total shares, raising 685 million RMB at a maximum offer price of 7.04 HKD per share, with a market capitalization of 5 billion HKD [13]. - The company’s valuation stands at 70 times earnings, which is significantly higher compared to peers like Jiamaoji and Green Tea Group, raising concerns about future growth potential [13]. - The presence of notable cornerstone investors, including Hillhouse Capital, suggests confidence in the company's growth prospects despite the high valuation [13].