【固定收益】1 月转债月报：抢跑春季躁动，转债估值看涨 晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 核心结论 分析师 【宏观】良时正可用：2026 年十大宏观趋势展望 我们根据 2026 年宏观年度报告《革故鼎新：修复式增长下的再平衡与新动 力》的主要内容和经济与市场的最新变化，总结了 2026 年可能出现的十大 宏观趋势。 【食品饮料】东鹏饮料（605499.SH）深度覆盖报告：东风已至，鹏路翱翔 我们看好公司主品完善全国化布局及积极推进海外发展，第二曲线补水啦持 续放量；新品推广体系逐步成熟，有望在价格敏感度高的多个细分赛道中不 断培育新的增长抓手。我们预计 2025-2027 年营收分别为 212/263/316 亿 元，归母净利润分别为 46/57/71 亿元，目前股价对应 PE 为 31/25/20 倍， 考虑到公司仍具备较强成长性，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【北交所】锦华新材（920015.BJ）跟踪点评：光刻胶清洗剂送样验证进展 超预期，开启交付 公司作为精细化学品细分领域"小巨人"，基本盘硅烷交联剂业务有望维持 稳定增长，高毛利羟胺水溶液进展超预期，叠加募投项目进展顺利 26 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry experienced a slowdown in 2025, with a 5.3% decline in the sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 19.4 percentage points [1][25] - The soft drink sector maintained relative strength, while the snack industry showed mixed performance, with leading companies continuing to expand [1][20] - Consumer confidence remained low, with the disposable income growth rate for urban residents at 4.4% year-on-year, reflecting weak internal demand [12][20] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report identifies structural opportunities in the consumer goods sector, driven by channel differentiation and supply upgrades [2][29] - The report emphasizes the need for consumer goods companies to adapt to new retail channels and enhance product differentiation to meet evolving consumer preferences [2][29] - The anticipated recovery in consumer confidence and macroeconomic policies is expected to shift consumer focus from extreme price competition to a preference for quality and added value [2][29] Group 3 - Investment recommendations for 2026 include focusing on high-quality and differentiated products, with specific companies highlighted such as Babi Foods and Wanchen Group [3][4] - The report suggests that companies with strong performance recovery expectations, such as Anjui Foods and Yihai International, should be considered for investment [3][4] - High dividend or comprehensive shareholder return stocks, such as Yili Group, are also recommended for investors [3][4] Group 4 - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Yanjing Beer and Nongfu Spring [4][5] - The food and beverage sector's overall revenue and profit growth rates have weakened, with the industry experiencing a cumulative revenue growth of only 0.3% and a profit decline of 4.5% in the first three quarters of 2025 [20][22] - The snack sector's revenue growth was primarily driven by the expansion of Wanchen Group, while other segments faced challenges [20][22]

Group 1 - The new regulation allows for simplified measures for cash withdrawals over 50,000 yuan, depending on risk assessment, eliminating the previous requirement for all individuals to register the source of funds [4] - The heir of Hermes, Nicolas Piesch, claims to have lost approximately 15 billion USD in Hermes shares due to betrayal by a long-time wealth manager, who recently died under suspicious circumstances [5][6] - The Canon printer factory in Zhongshan has ceased operations and is currently settling accounts with employees and suppliers [9] Group 2 - The Airbus company has ordered a global recall of about 6,000 A320 aircraft due to a software defect related to solar radiation, which has caused safety concerns [10] - Beyond Meat, known as the first public company in the plant-based meat sector, has closed its flagship store on Tmall and is currently selling off existing inventory [11] - The first batch of frozen durians imported from Indonesia has arrived in China, with expected prices between 40 to 50 yuan per pound [12] Group 3 - Under Armour has reported a continuous decline in sales for eight consecutive quarters, with a market value drop of 14 billion USD over the past decade [13] - The People's Bank of China reported that the bond market issued a total of 63,574.6 billion yuan in October, with various types of bonds contributing to this figure [14] - The proportion of one-person households in South Korea has surpassed 36%, indicating a significant demographic shift [14]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% at 3,864 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14%[17] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.13%, supported by gains in the healthcare sector, while real estate stocks faced pressure[12] - European markets closed higher, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and progress in Ukraine peace talks, with the Stoxx 600 index up 1.09%[10] Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April[6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated a decline in overall consumer spending in recent weeks[6] - The UK government announced a tax increase plan, which has positively influenced market sentiment towards the British pound, which rose 0.6% against the dollar[4] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude rising 1.2% to $58.65 per barrel, supported by expectations of increased demand due to potential rate cuts[27] - Gold prices reached a one-week high, with a 0.6% increase to $4,165.2 per ounce, as the dollar weakened[27] - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.1% to 99.6, reflecting the impact of rate cut expectations[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 2-year yield rising 1.6 basis points to 3.48% and the 10-year yield falling 0.2 basis points to 3.99%[31] - The UK budget announcement led to a significant rise in UK government bonds, with yields on 5-10 year bonds dropping by 5-7 basis points[31] - Asian high-beta bonds saw some bottom-fishing buying, while Chinese investment-grade spreads widened by 0-2 basis points[31]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant block trade of Dongpeng Beverage on November 19, with a transaction volume of 72,400 shares and a transaction amount of 16.7164 million yuan, executed at a price of 230.89 yuan, which represents a discount of 10.85% compared to the closing price of the day [2][3][4] Group 2 - In the last three months, Dongpeng Beverage has recorded a total of 8 block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 652 million yuan [3] - The closing price of Dongpeng Beverage on the day of the report was 259.00 yuan, reflecting an increase of 0.96%, with a daily turnover rate of 0.26% and a total transaction amount of 348 million yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 7.23%, with a total net outflow of funds amounting to 127 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The latest margin financing balance for Dongpeng Beverage is 385 million yuan, which has decreased by 1.8071 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 0.47% [4] - Dongpeng Beverage (Group) Co., Ltd. was established on June 30, 1994, with a registered capital of 520.013 million yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a slight revenue increase of 0.17% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, but the net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 4.58% [3][15]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in both revenue and profit, with revenues dropping by 4.75% year-on-year and net profits decreasing by 14.61% [3][15]. - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to lead to a recovery in performance and valuation for the food and beverage sector [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector's overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 8309.16 billion, with a net profit of CNY 1711.64 billion [3][15]. - The third quarter alone generated revenue of CNY 2500.62 billion, with a net profit of CNY 434.96 billion [3][15]. 2. Subsector Performance 2.1 Baijiu (Chinese liquor) - The baijiu sector faced significant pressure, with revenues and net profits declining in the third quarter of 2025 [24]. - Major brands like Moutai and Fenjiu performed relatively well despite the overall downturn [24]. - The report notes a 20%-30% decline in sales during traditional festive periods, with regional variations in performance [24]. 2.2 Beer - The beer sector maintained steady demand, achieving a revenue of CNY 620.52 billion in the first three quarters, up 2.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 94.84 billion, up 11.82% [29]. - The third quarter saw revenues of CNY 203.20 billion, with a net profit increase of 11.30% [29]. 2.3 Snacks - The snack sector showed positive growth, with revenues and net profits increasing in the third quarter [3][29]. 2.4 Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector experienced a strong performance, particularly in the third quarter, with leading companies showing significant growth [3][29]. 2.5 Dairy Products - The dairy sector continued to face demand challenges, but there were signs of marginal improvement as raw milk prices stabilized [4][29]. 2.6 Condiments - The condiment sector is undergoing intense competition, but leading companies are outperforming the overall market [4][29]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient companies with strong growth potential, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Yili, and Moutai, among others [8][24].

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy and Beverage Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is experiencing a continuous capacity reduction, with expectations for supply-demand balance improvement by mid to late 2026, leading to potential stabilization in milk prices. As of October, milk prices remained stable at 2.94 yuan per kilogram, with a production loss of approximately 0.2 yuan per kilogram and a loss rate of about 5% [2][2][2]. Key Points on Dairy Companies New Dairy Industry - New Dairy reported a strong performance in October, continuing the trend from Q3, with double-digit growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt. The company is expanding into new channels, achieving significant revenue from collaborations, and is expected to meet its profit margin targets ahead of schedule by 2026 [4][4][4]. Mengniu Dairy - Mengniu's Q3 results met expectations, with stable market share following price reductions on its flagship product. The company anticipates stable revenue and profit margin growth through 2026, with a relatively low valuation providing investment flexibility [5][5][5]. Yili Group - Despite weak overall demand, Yili's low-temperature milk and other segments showed positive growth, with low-temperature white milk exceeding 20% growth. The company is expected to stabilize its liquid milk business by 2026, benefiting from diversified product offerings and channels [6][7][6][7]. Miao Ke Lan Duo and Youran Dairy - Miao Ke Lan Duo is experiencing rapid growth in the B-end market, with significant C-end product launches. The company is expanding its deep processing of dairy products, which is expected to improve profitability. Youran Dairy is increasing fresh milk supply with stable prices, supporting profits, and is projected to enhance profitability further with a reduction in livestock numbers [8][8][8]. Beverage Industry Insights Master Kong - Master Kong's beverage business saw a slight decline in Q3, but the drop has narrowed in October. The company expects to stabilize its beverage business next year, with a focus on promotional activities and potential price adjustments for its one-liter products [9][10][9][10]. Nongfu Spring - Nongfu Spring's water business experienced double-digit growth in October, with its sugar-free tea brand capturing nearly 80% market share. The company is expected to maintain steady revenue and profit growth, making it a strong long-term investment choice [10][10][10]. Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage reported a nearly 30% growth rate, with ambitious annual targets. The company shows significant growth potential from a valuation perspective [10][10][10]. Investment Recommendations - The dairy sector is recommended for investment due to expected improvements in profitability and market conditions by 2026. Companies like Mengniu, Yili, and New Dairy are highlighted for their growth potential and stable valuations [5][7][4][4]. - In the beverage sector, Master Kong and Nongfu Spring are noted for their resilience and growth prospects, making them attractive investment options [9][10][10].

Core Insights - The 15th National Games in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area serves as a significant platform for brand marketing, with Dongpeng Beverage participating as both an official supplier and designated functional beverage, enhancing its brand value through emotional resonance with the youth [1][2] Brand Value Enhancement - Dongpeng Beverage's participation in the National Games is not merely for brand exposure but aims to elevate brand value and market competitiveness by leveraging the event's national influence and positive values [2] - The company has established a comprehensive marketing matrix that spans from international events to popular sports, effectively binding its brand with the spirit of struggle and perseverance [2][3] Marketing Strategy and Execution - The marketing strategy integrates the brand's philosophy of "Awake and Strive" into various sports and esports events, creating emotional connections with consumers through immersive experiences [3][4] - Dongpeng's marketing efforts have led to a significant upgrade in brand perception, transitioning from a basic energy drink to a recognized partner for those striving for success [3][4] Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage has shown consistent revenue growth, achieving 4.959 billion yuan in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 17.81%, and reaching 15.839 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - By the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue surpassed 16.844 billion yuan, indicating a strong upward trajectory in financial performance [4] Market Recognition and Future Outlook - The capital market has recognized Dongpeng's growth potential, with 201 research reports published by sell-side brokers in 2025, reflecting strong market interest [4][5] - The company is seen as a rare asset in the food and beverage industry, with expectations of sustained high growth and improved profitability due to its platform-based strategy [4][5] Competitive Advantage - Dongpeng has built a differentiated competitive advantage through long-term strategic planning, leading to sustained revenue growth and positive institutional outlook [5][6] - The expansion into Southeast Asian markets presents new growth opportunities, potentially becoming a new engine for performance growth [5][6]

Core Insights - The leading companies in the mass-market segment are stabilizing, while the liquor industry is experiencing accelerated pressure release, reinforcing market share logic [4][19][39] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show stable overall growth with structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [4][12] - The liquor sector is entering a phase of adjustment, with a consensus on deceleration in 2024, as many companies are adjusting their strategies amid increasing channel pressures [4][19][39] Liquor Sector - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's revenue and net profit declines have widened, with total revenue of 3,202 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 1,126 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year [19][35] - Major liquor companies are experiencing significant revenue drops, with only a few, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, showing positive growth [20][21] - The sector is facing increased competition, leading companies to prioritize market share over profitability, resulting in a decrease in gross profit margins [33][39] Mass-Market Segment - The mass-market segment is benefiting from proactive inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, leading to improved operations for leading companies in 2025 [4][12] - Specific categories such as sugar-free tea, functional beverages, and snacks are showing high growth rates, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng leading the charge [4][12] - The snack segment reported a revenue increase of 22.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite rising costs in certain product categories [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on liquor and restaurant supply chains, particularly companies like Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, which are expected to benefit from policy sensitivity [4][12] - Stronger companies in the mass-market segment, such as Nongfu Spring and Yanjing Beer, are recommended for investment due to their robust performance [4][12] Financial Performance - The liquor sector's cash flow is under pressure, with many companies reporting negative operating cash flows, indicating a slowdown in business activity [40] - The overall net profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with only Moutai showing an improvement in gross profit margin due to better product mix [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage conducted two block trades on November 5, totaling 338,700 shares with a transaction value of 81.32 million yuan, at a price of 240.12 yuan, reflecting an 11.00% discount compared to the closing price of the day [2] Trading Summary - The total transaction volume for the two block trades was 338,700 shares, with a total transaction value of 81.32 million yuan [2] - The transaction price was 240.12 yuan, which is an 11.00% discount relative to the closing price of the day [2] - Over the past three months, Dongpeng Beverage has recorded a total of seven block trades, amounting to 636 million yuan [2] Market Performance - On the same day, Dongpeng Beverage's closing price was 269.80 yuan, showing an increase of 1.12% [2] - The daily turnover rate was 0.41%, with a total transaction amount of 570 million yuan [2] - The net inflow of main funds for the day was 15.72 million yuan, while the stock has seen a cumulative decline of 5.66% over the past five days, with a total net inflow of 18.75 million yuan [2] Margin Trading Data - The latest margin financing balance for Dongpeng Beverage is 426 million yuan, which has increased by 57.17 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth of 15.52% [2] Company Background - Dongpeng Beverage (Group) Co., Ltd. was established on June 30, 1994, with a registered capital of 520.013 million yuan [2]