证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 食品饮料 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 01 日 食品饮料周报：节后高端酒批价稳健，重视餐供产业链机会 ——食饮行业周报（2026 年 2 月第 3 期） 投资要点 ❑ 市场表现复盘 ❑ 本周（2 月 23 日-2 月 27 日，下同），食品饮料板块涨跌幅为 -1.54%，上 证综指涨跌幅为+1.98%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+1.08%，具体来看， 预加工食品/啤酒/保健品/调味发酵品/肉制品/烘焙食品/零食/乳品/其他酒 类/白酒/软饮料涨跌幅分别为+6.73%/+2.62%/+1.17%/+1.01%/+0.58%/- 0.17%/-0.81%/-0.93%/-1.43%/-2.26%/-5.79%。 ❑ 周观点更新 ❑ 白酒：节后高端酒批价稳定，珍酒发布业绩预告。本周板块回调或主因资金 面问题，节后高端酒批价保持稳健（本周散飞批价保持 1650 元，同时五粮 液&国窖 1573 批价亦稳定），基本面周度边际变化不大。① 珍酒：公司发 布业绩预告，显示 25 年公司预计营收 35.5-37 亿元（同比下滑 48%-50%）， 经调整净利润 5.2-5.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is implementing a strategy for overseas market promotion that combines domestic successful models with localized adaptations, focusing on digital operations and precise channel coverage [1] Group 1 - The company is currently in the stage of laying the groundwork for its overseas market, with a precise promotion system being iteratively advanced as planned [1] - Dongpeng Beverage aims to optimize its promotion strategies and resource allocation steadily according to the development stages of each market [1] - The company is committed to strengthening its market foundation to support long-term expansion in overseas business [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the upward trend in Moutai's batch price, indicating a potential rebound in the liquor sector, particularly led by Guizhou Moutai [2][11] - The consumer environment is improving, with high-end consumption showing signs of recovery, driven by the wealth effect from the stock market [2][11] - The report highlights the positive performance of mass consumer products, particularly in the beverage and snack sectors, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year improvements in January data [3][13] Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a weekly increase of +4.31%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, which decreased by -1.27% and -1.33%, respectively [1][19] - Specific segments such as liquor (+5.29%), soft drinks (+4.71%), and beer (+4.48%) showed strong performance, while health products experienced a decline of -1.36% [1][19] Sector Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: The report recommends focusing on leading brands like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gu Qingongjiu, anticipating strong sales during the Spring Festival [4][12] - **Mass Consumer Products**: The report suggests investing in snacks, dairy, and beverages, highlighting companies like Wei Long, Salted Fish, and East Peak Beverage as key recommendations due to favorable cost advantages and growth potential [4][13][15] - **Dairy Products**: The report recommends focusing on upstream dairy farms like You Ran Mu Ye and downstream brands such as New Dairy and Yili, anticipating a dual boost from raw milk and beef cycles [4][16] Key Data Tracking - The report tracks significant price movements in key products, including the batch price of Moutai reaching 1760 yuan, indicating strong demand in the high-end market [2][11][53] - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector is reported at 21.79 times, with liquor at 19.44 times, indicating a relatively attractive valuation [25]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Dongpeng Beverage has declined, negatively impacting Baba Food's financial performance, despite stable overall operations and growth in core business profits [2][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Baba Food reported a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting an 11.22% growth, while net profit is expected to be 273 million yuan, showing a slight decrease [2]. - The investment income from Dongpeng Beverage significantly dropped by 93.82 million yuan compared to the previous year due to market price fluctuations [2]. - The investment returns from Dongpeng Beverage for the years 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 35.12 million yuan, 14.16 million yuan, and 91.16 million yuan, respectively [5]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Expansion - Baba Food aims for steady growth in its core business, with plans to complete acquisitions of projects like "Qinglu" and "Manxiangren" to enhance regional market presence and boost franchise store operations [7]. - The company is focusing on strengthening new product development and supply chain management to effectively control raw material costs and improve operational efficiency [8]. - A target has been set to open 1,000 new stores by 2026, with a focus on a new store model featuring soup dumplings, which has shown higher profit margins compared to traditional stores [9][10].

Group 1 - Shenzhen's total number of listed companies has officially surpassed 600, comprising 426 domestic and 174 overseas companies, with a total market capitalization exceeding 19 trillion yuan [2] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the number of domestic listed companies in Shenzhen grew by 35.03%, with a total market value of 12.59 trillion yuan as of January 2026, ranking second among major cities in China [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed companies in Shenzhen achieved a cumulative operating income of 5.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.36%, outpacing the national average [2] Group 2 - Approximately 80% of newly listed companies in Shenzhen are from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, highlighting a strong focus on technological innovation [3] - The semiconductor and integrated circuit industry clusters have emerged as significant contributors, with companies like Zhongke Feicai and Laplace rapidly rising in the market [3] - Shenzhen's artificial intelligence and robotics sectors demonstrate global competitiveness, with companies like UBTECH and Huichuan Technology leading the way [3] Group 3 - The cluster of companies in new energy and green technology reflects Shenzhen's industrial transformation, with major players like BYD and Shihang New Energy leading the charge [4][5] - BYD's annual R&D investment exceeds 54 billion yuan, showcasing Shenzhen's commitment to core technology development [5] - The biopharmaceutical sector is also making strides, with companies like Beixin Life and Hanno Medical achieving significant technological breakthroughs [5] Group 4 - Shenzhen's capital market is characterized by a multi-dimensional structure, with a total market capitalization of 12.59 trillion yuan, accounting for over 10% of the total A-share market [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, main board companies experienced revenue and net profit growth rates of 7.22% and 4.84%, respectively [6] - The overseas listing channel has become a significant growth driver, with 38 new overseas listed companies from Shenzhen between 2023 and 2025 [6] Group 5 - The active M&A market in Shenzhen has accelerated industrial upgrades, with 146 M&A transactions completed in 2025, totaling 86.645 billion yuan [7] - Companies like Luxshare Precision and China Resources Sanjiu are examples of successful acquisitions that enhance their competitive capabilities [7] - The capital market plays a crucial role in promoting high-level circulation among technology, capital, and industry [7] Group 6 - Recent listings of companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Beixin Life reflect the diverse sectors represented in Shenzhen's economy, including consumer goods, hard technology, high-end manufacturing, and modern services [8][9] - Dongpeng Beverage's growth illustrates the path of regional brands becoming national enterprises through capital markets [8] - Beixin Life's listing signifies the capital market's support for innovative biopharmaceutical companies [9] Group 7 - Shenzhen's comprehensive support ecosystem for businesses includes a clear growth path and tailored policies for different types of enterprises [10] - The city has over 20,000 national high-tech enterprises and 1,333 national specialized "little giant" companies, leading the nation in both total and incremental growth [10] - Financial support networks have facilitated over 2.8 trillion yuan in direct financing for Shenzhen enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11] Group 8 - Shenzhen's capital market is transitioning from quantity accumulation to structural optimization and quality enhancement, with strategic emerging industries expected to become the main force in future listings [12] - The implementation of the "Shenzhen Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Mergers and Acquisitions" will enrich the cases of mergers and acquisitions for listed companies [13] - Shenzhen's R&D investment has significantly increased, reaching 2.453 trillion yuan by 2024, with an R&D intensity of 6.67%, ranking first among cities in China [13]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) plans to invest in a new production base in Chengdu, with a total investment of 1.1 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The company intends to sign an investment agreement with the Chengdu Wenjiang High-tech Industrial Park Management Committee [1] - The project will involve the establishment of Chengdu Dongpeng Vitamin Beverage Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 100 million yuan [1] - The production base project will utilize 280 acres of industrial land in the Chengdu Wenjiang High-tech Industrial Park [1]

Core Insights - Mixue Ice City is diversifying its business model, with the "Snow King" IP being a significant focus for expansion and engagement [1][3][4] Group 1: Recruitment and Theme Park Development - Mixue Ice City has recently posted job openings related to a "Theme Park Project," indicating plans to develop a comprehensive experience around the "Snow King" IP [1] - The job roles include positions such as park performance coordinator, content writer, project manager, and product coordinator, with salaries ranging from 10,000 to 24,000 yuan per month [1] Group 2: Expansion and Flagship Stores - The company has been expanding its flagship stores across cities like Hangzhou, Jinan, and Guangzhou, featuring limited edition drinks and merchandise related to the "Snow King" [2] - The flagship store in Zhengzhou has shown strong customer attraction, with a peak daily footfall of 46,000 and a maximum daily revenue exceeding 350,000 yuan [2] Group 3: Brand and Marketing Efficiency - The "Snow King" IP has become a core competitive advantage for Mixue Ice City, significantly reducing marketing expenses, with brand promotion costs accounting for only 0.9% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The operational costs associated with the "Snow King" IP are low, and its popularity has been driven by the company's extensive store network rather than heavy promotional spending [3] Group 4: Future Investments - Approximately 7% (2.3 billion HKD) of the funds raised will be allocated to further develop the brand IP and enhance consumer recognition of the "Snow King" [5] - The recruitment for the theme park project may be a strategic move to capitalize on the economic potential of the "Snow King" [6]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage Group Co., Ltd. officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 3, 2026, marking its entry into the international capital market and providing a new financing platform for future growth [1] Summary by Sections Listing Details - The total number of H-shares offered globally is 40,889,900 shares, with an issue price of HKD 248.00 per share [1] - The expected net fundraising amount, assuming no exercise of the over-allotment option, is approximately HKD 9.994 billion after deducting related expenses [1] - The public offering in Hong Kong accounts for 10% of the total shares, while the international offering accounts for 90% [1] Shareholding Structure - Post-listing, the total share capital of the company will increase to approximately 561 million shares, with H-shares accounting for 7.29% and A-shares for 92.71% [1] - The controlling shareholder Lin Muqin and his concert parties will see their combined shareholding diluted from approximately 65.24% before the listing to about 60.49% after [1] Future Implications - The successful listing of H-shares signifies a new growth impetus for Dongpeng Beverage, enhancing its financing capabilities for future development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first consumer company to achieve "A+H share" listing in 2026, with a strong market presence and impressive financial performance [2][3]. Company Overview - Dongpeng Beverage issued 40.89 million H shares at a maximum price of 248 HKD, aiming to raise 10.14 billion HKD, with significant backing from 15 cornerstone investors [2]. - The company is recognized as a leading brand in China's functional beverage market, often referred to as the "Chinese version" of Red Bull, holding a market share of 26.3% in 2024 [3]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 4.34 billion and 4.59 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.46% to 37.97% [3]. - From 2021 to 2026, the company's revenue grew from 1.44 billion RMB in 2022 to 3.33 billion RMB in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52% [3]. - The company's net asset return rate stood at 45.62% as of September 2025, significantly higher than the industry average of 9.69% [5]. Growth Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage has maintained a high growth trajectory, with revenue increasing from 6.98 billion RMB in 2021 to 15.83 billion RMB in 2024, a 2.28 times increase [6]. - The company has adopted a high-leverage strategy, with its leverage ratio rising from 1.83 times in 2021 to 2.72 times by September 2025, exceeding the industry median [7]. Market Potential - The functional beverage market in China is projected to grow significantly, with retail sales expected to reach 1.3 trillion RMB by 2024, and the market for energy drinks alone anticipated to reach 180.7 billion RMB by 2029 [8]. Operational Efficiency - Dongpeng Beverage has increased its fixed asset investments from 2.23 billion RMB in 2022 to 3.67 billion RMB in 2024, with a focus on expanding production capacity [13]. - The company's fixed asset turnover ratio improved from 3.48 to 4.16 between 2022 and 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [14]. Financial Management - The company has effectively utilized a strategy of low-interest borrowing combined with diversified financial investments, resulting in interest income that covers interest expenses [16]. - Dongpeng Beverage's financial assets have grown significantly, from 300 million RMB in 2021 to 3.48 billion RMB in 2025, showcasing its financial management capabilities [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first functional beverage company in China to achieve a dual listing in both A-shares and H-shares, raising approximately HKD 10.1 billion through the issuance of 40.89 million shares at an offering price of HKD 248 per share [1][5]. Group 1: Listing Details - On its first trading day, Dongpeng Beverage's opening price matched the offering price at HKD 248.00 per share, but it later fell to HKD 247.2, representing a decline of 0.32% and a total market capitalization of HKD 138.7 billion [3]. - The cornerstone investor lineup for the IPO is notable, with 15 leading global institutions collectively subscribing over USD 600 million, including sovereign wealth funds, international long-term funds, and private equity [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue is projected to exceed RMB 20 billion by 2025, with estimates ranging from RMB 20.76 billion to RMB 21.12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.07% to 33.34% [9]. - The company reported revenues of RMB 85 billion, RMB 112.6 billion, RMB 158.3 billion, and RMB 168.4 billion for the years 2022 to 2025, with net profits of RMB 14.4 billion, RMB 20.4 billion, RMB 33.3 billion, and RMB 37.6 billion respectively [9]. Group 3: Strategic Intentions - The dual listing is aimed at enhancing the company's capital strength and overall competitiveness, improving its international brand image, and supporting its global business development needs [10]. - Dongpeng Beverage plans to invest up to USD 200 million to establish a production base in Indonesia, marking its first overseas manufacturing facility and further penetrating the Southeast Asian market [10].