当前港股消费的机会 - 对话鹏华基金张羽翔 20250910 摘要 国证港股通消费主题指数聚焦新消费领域，包含 IP 潮玩、茶饮、黄金珠 宝、户外运动服饰及美护等稀缺标的，受益于港股新消费板块的困境反 转逻辑，尤其是在 2025 年经济触底回升的预期下，该指数成分股有望 表现出高品质、高毛利、高增长的特性。 国证港股通消费指数与其他消费指数相比，更专注于新兴高成长性的消 费者领域，降低了家电、食品饮料（特别是酒类）的权重，与中证香港 综合大盘相比，也更纯粹地聚焦新兴消费，避免了互联网平台公司及智 能汽车等行业的干扰。 当前市场处于震荡上行通道，每次调整后的底部空间逐级抬升，政策底 线明确，特别国债发行、消费贷补贴等措施支撑实体经济恢复，大量存 款向权益类资产迁移，新兴高成长性消费者领域受益于政策支持和 Z 世 代推动，结构性机会明显。 Z 世代的崛起是新兴高成长性消费者领域脱颖而出的重要原因，他们追 求个性化、高品质、高科技产品，并愿意为此支付溢价，他们的消费习 惯和趋势引领了未来的重要方向，决定了未来公司和行业的成长空间。 Q&A 港股消费板块的投资机会有哪些？ 港股消费板块在当前市场环境下展现出显著的投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has become a focal point in 2023, with several companies reporting impressive mid-year performance, particularly the "three golden flowers": Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart achieved a revenue of 13.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit of 4.682 billion yuan, up 385.6%. The plush toy category was a significant driver, generating 6.139 billion yuan, a staggering growth of 1276.2% [4]. - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan, a 251% increase, and a net profit of 2.35 billion yuan, up 290.6%. Same-store sales grew by 200.8% [4]. - Mixue Group's revenue reached 14.875 billion yuan, a 39.3% increase, with a net profit of 2.718 billion yuan, up 44.1% [5]. Group 2: International Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue reached 2.851 billion yuan in the Asia-Pacific market (excluding China), a 257.8% increase, and 2.265 billion yuan in the Americas, up 1142.3%. The company operates 571 stores in 18 countries, with nearly 40% of total revenue coming from international markets [6]. - Lao Pu Gold's overseas revenue was 1.597 billion yuan, a 455.2% increase, with plans to expand into the Hong Kong and Macau markets [7][8]. - Mixue Group opened its first store in Kazakhstan and has around 4,700 overseas stores across 12 countries, optimizing operations in Indonesia and Vietnam [7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The Hong Kong new consumption sector is transitioning from a "beta" market to a more differentiated "alpha" market, with a focus on building long-term competitive advantages [9]. - The shift in consumer focus from family to individual spending, particularly among younger generations, is driving demand for emotional and social value in consumption [10]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong new consumption sector is expected to continue, with public funds projected to flow into the sector significantly in 2025 [10].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Consumption Index (HSCGSI) has shown a positive trend, with a 0.40% increase as of July 2, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Gu Ming (up 5.68%) and China Resources Beer (up 4.40%) [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) has rebounded over 15% since its low on April 8, 2025, indicating strong market performance [1] - The trading volume for the Hang Seng Consumption ETF reached 86.7 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.5% [1] Group 2 - The latest size of the Hang Seng Consumption ETF is 1.152 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 26.19% over the past year [2] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 22.30% since its inception, with an average monthly return of 5.42% and a total annual profit percentage of 100.00% [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the HSCGSI account for 60.72% of the index, with Pop Mart having the highest weight at 11.32% [2] Group 3 - In May, retail sales in China grew by 6.4% year-on-year, driven by policies promoting consumption and increased holiday periods, marking the highest growth rate since early 2024 [3] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism plans to launch a national summer cultural and tourism consumption season, offering over 570 million yuan in subsidies to boost consumer spending [3] - The Hong Kong stock market has become a hotspot for consumer companies since September 2024, with brands like Mi Xue Ice City and Lao Pu Gold listing, driven by favorable policies and capital inflow [3] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) offers T+0 trading and has associated off-market links for easy access to Hong Kong's new consumption sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by the emotional spending trends of the younger generation, particularly the Z generation, leading to high performance in stocks like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has seen leading stocks like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold achieving year-to-date increases of over 160% and 300%, respectively [1]. - The emotional consumption trend among the younger demographic is reshaping the market, with over 40% of their purchasing behavior driven by emotional satisfaction [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (fund code: 159245) is currently being issued, providing investors with a convenient tool to invest in the new consumption sector [1][4]. - The ETF tracks the National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme, which captures high-growth trends in the new consumption sector [4]. Group 3: Policy and Capital Flow - Strong underlying consumer demand is complemented by policy incentives and inflows of southbound capital, which are driving the consumption sector's strength [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.1 trillion yuan in sales generated from five major categories by May 31 [3]. - Southbound capital has accelerated its inflow into Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding 610 billion yuan by June 3, focusing on non-essential consumption and technology sectors [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current period is seen as an optimal time to invest in the Hong Kong new consumption sector, with clear signs of consumption recovery and improving liquidity in the market [4]. - The leading new consumption companies are still in the early stages of overseas expansion, indicating substantial growth potential [4].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.07% to close at 23,906.97 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.93% to 5,319.96 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.26% to 8,684.73 points [2][4] Sector Performance - The technology sector led the gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Kuaishou (+5%), Alibaba (+over 3%), Meituan (+2.6%), Xiaomi and JD.com (+1.5%), and Baidu and NetEase (+1%) [2][4] - Financial stocks remained active, with significant gains in Citic Securities (+2.68%), China Galaxy (+2.53%), New China Life Insurance (+4.35%), and China Pacific Insurance (+3.5%) [4][5] - Semiconductor and mobile supply chain stocks also saw substantial increases, with Hongguang Semiconductor rising nearly 11% and SMIC up over 4% [4] Consumer Sector - The tea beverage sector experienced a pullback, with stocks such as Guming, Mixue Group, and Chabaidao declining by 7.97%, 7.72%, and 7.72% respectively [6] - Other consumer stocks like Laoputang, Pop Mart, and Maogeping also faced declines of 9.05%, 1.22%, and 6.67% respectively [8] - Analysts noted that the recent surge in new consumer stocks was driven by multiple favorable factors, including southbound capital inflows, policy support, and strong performance, but valuations may have already priced in future growth [8] Individual Stock Movements - Dongfeng Motor Group saw a significant drop of 14.45%, closing at HKD 3.61 per share, attributed to market concerns over the company's controlling shareholder's restructuring plans [8] - Conversely, Jinli Permanent Magnet surged over 12%, supported by rising overseas rare earth prices, which are expected to transmit to domestic markets [8][9] Regulatory Changes - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced new export licensing management for medium and heavy rare earth materials, requiring approval for exports, which may lead to a significant price increase due to supply shortages [9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Consumption Index (HSCGSI) rose by 1.02% as of June 4, 2025, with significant gains from stocks like Huabao International (up 13.64%) and Smoore International (up 12.87%) [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) increased by 1.27%, showing a cumulative rebound of 16% since its low on April 8 [1] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Hang Seng Consumption ETF is 18.06, indicating it is at a historical low, below 80.45% of the time over the past five years [1] Group 2 - As of June 3, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Consumption Index accounted for 59.23%, with Pop Mart being the most significant component [2] - Pop Mart's stock price has increased by 174.4% year-to-date, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 330 billion [2] - Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about the Chinese IP industry, highlighting Pop Mart as a preferred stock with an "overweight" rating [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities noted that the "Two New" policies and consumer incentive policies are effectively driving downstream consumption growth, supporting the manufacturing sector [3] - The overall manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery in May, with a rebound in export orders and strong performance in new consumption sectors [3] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) offers T+0 trading, providing an easy way to invest in Hong Kong's new consumption sector [4]

Core Insights - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF has shown strong performance, with a recent increase in value and a significant trading volume, indicating investor interest in the Hong Kong consumer sector [1][2] - The Hang Seng Consumption Index is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.85, suggesting potential for future growth [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Consumption Index account for 58.88% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in key players like Pop Mart and Anta Sports [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 26, 2025, notable stock performances include Farmer Spring rising by 4.92% and Pop Mart maintaining a strong upward trend [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF has recorded an average daily trading volume of 1.27 billion yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Potential - The Hang Seng Consumption Index's current P/E ratio of 17.85 is below 82.75% of its historical levels over the past five years, indicating a potentially undervalued market [1] - The consumer sector is showing investment value due to easing tariffs and supportive macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting consumption [2] Group 3: Company Insights - Pop Mart, a leading player in the trendy toy market, is projected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 185% in 2024, with overseas revenue increasing by 375% [2] - Companies with channel and product innovation capabilities are expected to demonstrate significant growth in the consumer sector [3]