证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 百胜中国启动 RGM3.0 战略，确立未来三年财 务目标 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ►百胜中国启动 RGM3.0 战略，确立未来三年财务目标 2025 年全年展望：经营利润率 10.8%-10.9%；餐厅利润率，百 胜中国约 16.2%-16.3%，肯德基约 17.3%，必胜客约 12.7%； 每股自由现金流 2.2-2.3 美元。 2026-2028 年未来三年增长目标（以 2025 年为基准年）： 1）财务：同店销售额指数同比实现 100-102，系统销售额中 至高单位数增长，经营利润高单位数增长，每股摊薄盈利和 每股自由现金流均双位数增长。 2）门店：稳步推进 2026 年门店总数达 2 万家，2028 年门店 总数增加至超过 2.5 万家，到 2030 年门店总数力争突破 3 万 家。 3）资本开支：平均年度支出约 6-7 亿美元。 4）股东回馈：自 2027 年起，计划将约 100%的自由现金流扣 除支付给子公司少数股东的股息后回馈 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·商贸零售 商社行业2026年度策略： 强&变&新-外需与内需——消费出海与资源商贸 吴劲草 首席证券分析师 S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 石旖瑄 证券分析师 S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn xiy@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2025年11月23日 阳靖 证券分析师 郗越 证券分析师 S0600524080008 张家璇 证券分析师 S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 王琳婧 证券分析师 S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 摘要 2 ❑ 复盘2025年商社行业： ● 国补刺激+低基数下，可选品实现修复。2025年1-10月，在国补带动下，限额以上体育娱乐、家电音像、文化办公、家具、通讯器材等可选品品类均实现 18~21%的高增速；金银珠宝类受益于金价上涨，有较大的增幅；服装、化妆品、日用品等可选消费品也实现4%或以上的增速。分消费类型看，商品零 售好 ...

"十五五"规划明确提出"大力提振消费"，并将消费置于扩大内需和构建新发展格局的核心位置。相关提 法系统性强、政策精准。消费主题成为当前权益市场上长期价值投资的主要方向。 日前，锚定港股通泛消费主题的优质公司的主题基金：浦银安盛港股通消费混合型发起式证券投资基金 (A类：025940C类：025941)正式发行，该基金择股优先考虑公司成长性和行业竞争格局，挖掘基本面 扎实、且估值与股价匹配的公司。港股汇聚A股稀缺的泛消费领域龙头企业，在政策支持和年轻消费需 求推动下，正成为兼具成长潜力与稀缺性的投资选择。利用团队长期投资港股的经验，寻找具有成长潜 力、创新能力和市场拓展能力的好公司。 纵观全球主要市场，港股今年表现尤为亮眼，截至11月14日，恒生指数年初至今涨幅达35.41%。港股 在科技、消费、医药和高股息等领域汇聚了一批优质上市公司，以消费板块为例，以潮玩、特色茶饮、 黄金首饰等为代表的新兴消费企业，更贴近年轻人的消费趋势和情感需求，受到市场广泛关注。截至 2025年10月底，已有80家企业完成港股IPO，融资规模达2160亿港元，有望成为全球募资金额最高的市 场，预计未来会有更多好公司在港股上市，进一步提 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a structural differentiation in consumption performance since 2025, with companies like Pop Mart, Miniso, and Lao Pu Gold successfully expanding overseas, leading to better performance for export-oriented companies [1][2] - By 2026, the report anticipates an acceleration in consumer exports, driven by a backdrop of the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and easing tariffs, with Southeast Asia surpassing the US as China's largest export destination [1][2] - The report outlines three main paths for companies going overseas: raw materials and medical devices, skincare products leveraging cost-effectiveness and Chinese herbal ingredients, and acquisitions to expand global market presence [2][3] Group 2 - The beauty industry is characterized by a steady global market demand, with emerging markets in Southeast Asia showing higher growth potential compared to East Asia and Europe [2] - The jewelry market is experiencing demand differentiation, with product upgrades and a broader consumer base, particularly in Asia, North America, and Europe [2][3] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is witnessing a globalized supply chain, with significant competition in Southeast Asia, and a shift towards high-value consumer electronics in the region [3][4] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong organizational structures and management capabilities in the beauty sector, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, while recommending premium jewelry brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji [3][4] - The report suggests that the cross-border e-commerce sector will benefit from tariff conflicts easing and a recovering demand cycle, recommending companies like Xiao Shangpin City and Jiao Dian Technology [3][4] - The retail sector is expected to improve due to effective adjustments, with a focus on companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant rise on November 10, driven by multiple positive news releases, with traditional and new consumption sectors showing strong performance, particularly China Duty Free Group reaching a two-year high [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares saw strong performances in sectors such as liquor, aviation, and duty-free, with notable stocks like China Duty Free Group hitting the daily limit and a total buy order of 5.03 billion yuan [2] - In Hong Kong, stocks like Hou Shang A Yi and Mi Xue Group rose by over 13% and 9% respectively, while Pop Mart increased by over 8% [2] - The consumer sector has been under pressure for several quarters, with the liquor index down approximately 5.45% year-to-date, while the retail index only increased by 0.75% [3] Group 2: Policy and Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Finance announced continued implementation of policies to boost consumption, while the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, has seen an expanding growth rate for six consecutive months, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [3] Group 3: Fund Management Trends - Public funds have shown a divergence in their operations, with some reducing holdings in traditional consumer stocks like Kweichow Moutai, while others maintain or increase their positions, reflecting differing outlooks on the consumer market [4][5] - The number of funds holding Pop Mart decreased from 286 to 180, with a significant reduction in the number of shares held, indicating a cautious approach towards new consumption stocks [4][5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are focusing on the dual aspects of domestic demand and overseas expansion as key investment themes, believing that the current low valuation levels provide a safety margin for investments [5][6] - There is a growing emphasis on the potential for Chinese brands to expand internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as companies leverage their domestic market strengths to gain competitive advantages abroad [6]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant rally on November 10, driven by multiple positive news, with traditional and new consumption sectors showing strong performance, particularly China Duty Free Group reaching a two-year high [1][2][3]. Consumer Sector Performance - On November 10, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw a collective rise in the consumer sector, with notable performances from liquor, aviation, and duty-free stocks. China Duty Free Group's A-shares hit the daily limit, with a buy order of 5.03 billion yuan [2]. - In Hong Kong, stocks like Hou Shang Ayi and Mijue Group saw increases of over 13% and 9% respectively, while Pop Mart and others also experienced significant gains [2]. Positive News Drivers - The rise in the consumer sector was supported by favorable news, including the Ministry of Finance's report on continuing consumption-boosting policies and the National Bureau of Statistics indicating a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3]. - The performance of individual stocks also positively influenced fund performance, with tourism and food and beverage ETFs showing significant gains, some increasing nearly 6% [3]. Fund Management Trends - There has been a divergence in public fund operations, with some funds reducing their holdings in traditional consumer stocks like liquor, while others remain optimistic about the long-term potential of these stocks [4][5]. - For instance, the market value of Guizhou Moutai held by active equity funds decreased to 27.455 billion yuan, with the number of funds holding it dropping to 573 [4]. Focus on Domestic Demand and Overseas Expansion - Fund managers are currently focusing on the dual aspects of domestic demand and overseas expansion for investment opportunities in the consumer sector, citing the current low valuation levels as providing a safety margin [5][6]. - The emphasis on overseas expansion is particularly relevant as Chinese brands in sectors like food and beverage and apparel are increasingly penetrating markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, presenting significant growth potential [6].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - Starbucks has formed a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to establish a joint venture aimed at expanding Starbucks' store count in China to 20,000 from the current 8,000 [1][21] - Yum China reported a revenue of $3.206 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 4% year-on-year increase, with same-store sales growth of 1% [2][26] Summary by Sections Industry and Company Dynamics - Starbucks and Boyu Capital's joint venture will manage Starbucks' retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% equity and Starbucks retaining 40% [1][21] - Yum China's Q3 2025 performance included a net profit of $282 million, down 5% year-on-year, but up 7% when excluding the impact of its investment in Meituan [2][26] Macroeconomic and Industry Data - In September, China's total retail sales reached 4.20 trillion yuan, growing by 3.0% year-on-year, with a notable decline in restaurant revenue growth [26][27] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year from January to September, indicating a stable performance in physical store operations [27][28] Investment Recommendations - Five investment themes are highlighted: 1. Continuous upgrades in AI technology with beneficiaries including companies like Core International and Focus Technology [3][55] 2. Enhanced consumer willingness to pay for emotional value, benefiting new retail players like Miniso and Pop Mart [3][55] 3. Recovery in cyclical sectors under domestic demand stimulation, with beneficiaries including Yum China and Haidilao [3][55] 4. Expanding opportunities for domestic brands overseas, with a focus on service providers and strong product offerings [3][55] 5. Revitalization of traditional business formats as offline traffic returns, benefiting companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Kidswant [3][55]

Core Insights - The stock price of Pop Mart dropped by 5.88% on November 7, resulting in a market value loss of over 17 billion HKD due to a "live streaming incident" [1][2] - Despite a significant revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year in Q3, the stock has seen a nearly 40% decline since reaching its peak in August [2][4] - The decline in stock price has negatively impacted other consumer stocks, with notable declines in companies like Giant Bio and Anta Sports [3] Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a Q3 revenue growth of 245%-250%, with domestic revenue increasing by 185%-190% and overseas revenue rising by 365%-370% [2] - The stock's dynamic P/E ratio decreased from 40 times to 21 times as of November 7 [4] Market Sentiment and Fund Activity - Public funds showed a mixed response, with a reduction in the number of funds holding Pop Mart from 286 to 180 in Q3, and a decrease in heavy holdings by approximately 31% [4] - Despite the reduction, 70 funds chose to increase their positions in Pop Mart, indicating a belief in the company's long-term growth potential [4][5] Industry Trends - The consumer sector, particularly in Hong Kong, has faced challenges, with the Hang Seng Consumer Index dropping over 6% [6] - Fund managers are optimistic about the potential for new opportunities in the consumer sector during upcoming shopping festivals and peak seasons [6][7] - The trend of "going overseas" is seen as a key growth factor for consumer brands, with increasing competitiveness in international markets [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in Pop Mart's stock price due to a "live streaming incident," which resulted in a market value loss of over 170 billion HKD in a single day. Despite impressive quarterly earnings, concerns about the sustainability of its popular IPs have led to a mixed response from public funds [1][3][6]. Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price fell by 5.88% on November 7, closing at 204.8 HKD per share, with a cumulative decline of nearly 40% over the past 50 trading days [3][4]. - The stock had previously reached a high of 339.8 HKD per share in August, with a market capitalization exceeding 450 billion HKD [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Pop Mart reported a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year, with domestic revenue increasing by 185%-190% and overseas revenue by 365%-370% [3][4]. - Despite these strong financial results, the stock price continued to decline, attributed to falling second-hand market prices for its popular IP LABUBU and ongoing market concerns about future performance sustainability [3][4]. Fund Activity - Public funds showed a trend of reducing their holdings in Pop Mart during Q3, with the number of funds holding the stock decreasing from 286 to 180, and the number of shares held dropping by approximately 31% [6][7]. - Some funds, however, chose to increase their positions, citing the potential for a second wave of growth due to expanding fan bases and overseas market penetration [7][8]. Market Impact - The decline in Pop Mart's stock has negatively affected other consumer stocks, with notable declines in companies like Giant Bio and Anta Sports, among others [4]. - The Hang Seng Consumer Index has also seen a drop of over 6% in Q4, reflecting broader market challenges [9]. Future Outlook - Fund managers express optimism about the new consumption sector, anticipating opportunities during upcoming shopping festivals and the holiday season [9][10]. - The trend of "going overseas" is highlighted as a key growth factor for consumer brands, with increasing competitiveness of Chinese brands in international markets [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in Pop Mart's stock price due to a "live streaming incident," which resulted in a significant market value loss, despite strong financial performance in Q3 [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 7, Pop Mart's stock dropped by 5.88%, leading to a market value loss of over 17 billion HKD [1]. - The stock has seen a nearly 40% decline over the past two months after reaching a high of 339.8 HKD per share in August [2][3]. - Despite a strong Q3 report showing a revenue increase of 245%-250%, the stock price continued to fall, attributed to concerns over the sustainability of its popular IP products [3][5]. Group 2: Fund Management and Market Sentiment - Public funds have shown a mixed response, with a reduction in the number of funds holding Pop Mart shares from 286 to 180 in Q3, and a decrease in heavy holdings by approximately 31% [5][6]. - Some funds have chosen to increase their positions, citing the potential for a second wave of growth due to expanding fan bases and overseas market penetration [2][6]. Group 3: Industry Context and Future Outlook - The decline in Pop Mart's stock has negatively impacted other consumer stocks, with significant drops observed across various companies in the sector [4]. - The overall consumer sector has faced challenges, but there is optimism for recovery during upcoming shopping festivals and the holiday season [7][8]. - The trend of "going overseas" is highlighted as a key growth factor for consumer brands, with increasing competitiveness in international markets [8][9].