信达证券表示，从供给看，2025年以来国家推动包括石化化工在内的重点行业进行"反内卷"整治，工信 部等七部门发布的《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》也表明要淘汰落后产能和优化供 给结构。在供给格局优化、需求稳步复苏背景下，炼化行业有望迎来景气上行周期。从需求看，由于国 内成品油需求达峰，石油消费结构转变或进一步深化，化工用油需求仍处于长期增长通道中，国内石化 产品需求缓慢复苏或成为主基调。 12月17日早盘，A股市场小幅回暖，中证石化产业指数快速上行涨超1%，成分股跌涨跌互现，盐湖股 份、鲁西化工、万华化学等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）跟随指数上行。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.1%，石油石化行业占比为32.7%，随着石化产业淘汰落后产能和加强 技术创新，产业链的价值将进一步提升。 每日经济新闻 ...

信达证券（601059）发布研报称，2026年原油基本面见底有望，油价中枢有望在多重因素制衡下，维持 在55-65美元/桶的区间内宽幅震荡。从需求看，由于国内成品油需求达峰，石油消费结构转变或进一步 深化，化工用油需求仍处于长期增长通道中，国内石化产品需求缓慢复苏或成为主基调。在供给格局优 化、需求稳步复苏背景下，炼化行业有望迎来景气上行周期。 上游开采方面，该行重点推荐红利属性凸显的中国海油（600938）/中国海洋石油(600938.SH/00883)、 中国石油（601857）(601857.SH)、中国石化（600028）(600028.SH);业绩正逐步兑现的油服企业中海油 服（601808）(601808.SH)、海油工程（600583）(600583.SH);原油产量成长空间较大的民营企业中曼石 油（603619）(603619.SH)等。 下游炼化方面，该行重点推荐具备规模优势、化工产业链条长、高附加值产品布局丰富的民营大炼化企 业：恒力石化（600346）(600346.SH)、荣盛石化（002493）(002493.SZ);逐步增强产业链协同优势的涤 纶长丝龙头桐昆股份（601233）(6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sinopec, indicating a positive outlook on the company's long-term investment value in the context of industry competition [7]. Core Insights - Sinopec's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was under pressure due to declining oil and product prices, resulting in a 10.69% year-on-year decrease in revenue to CNY 2,113.44 billion and a 32.23% drop in net profit to CNY 29.98 billion [1][4]. - The average Brent crude oil price for the first three quarters of 2025 was USD 70 per barrel, down 15% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in the third quarter [4]. - The exploration and production segment saw a 2.2% increase in oil and gas equivalent production, reaching 394.48 million barrels, while natural gas production rose by 4.9% [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Sinopec reported revenue of CNY 704.39 billion, a 10.88% year-on-year decline but a 4.56% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The company's net profit for Q3 2025 was CNY 8.50 billion, a slight decrease of 0.50% year-on-year but a 3.43% increase from the previous quarter [2]. - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025, with estimates of CNY 40.41 billion, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [7]. Segment Performance - The exploration and production segment achieved operating income of CNY 355 billion, while refining, marketing, and chemical segments reported mixed results, with refining showing slight improvement [4]. - The refining segment optimized its processing load and adjusted product structure, resulting in a decrease in crude oil processed by 2.2% to 186 million tons [4][5]. - The chemical segment saw a 10% increase in light oil production, with ethylene output rising by 15.4% to 11.59 million tons [5]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that Sinopec, as a leading player in the petrochemical industry, is expected to benefit from the current competitive landscape characterized by limited new capacity and the exit of inefficient players [7]. - The anticipated recovery in the refining industry is expected to provide performance elasticity for Sinopec in the coming years [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Sinopec's performance in the first half of 2025 was under pressure due to weak supply and demand in the refining sector, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [1][4] - The report highlights that the company achieved a historical high in oil and gas equivalent production, despite a slight decrease in crude oil output [4][5] - The long-term investment value of Sinopec is viewed positively, given its position as a leading player in the petrochemical industry amid a competitive landscape [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, Sinopec reported total revenue of CNY 1,409.05 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 21.48 billion, down 39.83% [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of CNY 673.70 billion, a year-on-year decline of 14.31%, and a net profit of CNY 8.22 billion, down 52.73% [2] - The average Brent oil price in the first half of 2025 was USD 71 per barrel, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, impacting the company's inventory and overall performance [4] Segment Performance Summary - The exploration and development segment achieved operating income of CNY 23.6 billion, while refining, marketing, and chemical segments reported operating incomes of CNY 3.5 billion, CNY 8 billion, and a loss of CNY 4.2 billion, respectively [4] - The company processed 120 million tons of crude oil in the first half of 2025, producing 71.4 million tons of refined oil, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year [4] - The chemical segment showed improvement with ethylene production increasing by 16.4% year-on-year to 7.56 million tons [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is CNY 46.17 billion, CNY 47.86 billion, and CNY 51.73 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.38, CNY 0.39, and CNY 0.43 [7] - The report anticipates a net profit growth rate of -8.2% for 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 3.7% and 8.1% in 2026 and 2027 [7]