Group 1 - The A-share market showed a slight recovery on December 17, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index rising over 1%, led by stocks such as Salt Lake Industry, Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [1] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) followed the index's upward trend, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the government is promoting "anti-involution" measures in key industries, including petrochemicals, with a plan to eliminate outdated production capacity and optimize supply structure from 2025 onwards [1] Group 2 - The refining industry is expected to enter a period of prosperity due to improved supply structure and steady demand recovery [1] - Domestic demand for refined oil has peaked, and the shift in oil consumption structure may deepen, while chemical oil demand remains in a long-term growth channel [1] - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.1% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.7% of the index [1]

Group 1 - The core view is that the oil market is expected to bottom out in 2026, with oil prices likely to fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel due to multiple factors [1] - On the supply side, OPEC+ is shifting to a moderate production increase model, while U.S. shale oil production growth is weak, leading to a tightening supply environment [1] - Global oil demand is entering a plateau phase before peaking, with a slow but resilient growth of approximately 800,000 to 1,000,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The refining supply structure is accelerating optimization, with the government promoting the elimination of backward production capacity and optimizing supply structure in the petrochemical industry [2] - The domestic demand for refined oil has peaked, and the transition in oil consumption structure is deepening, while chemical oil demand remains in a long-term growth channel [2] - The refining industry is expected to enter an upward cycle due to improved supply structure and steady demand recovery [2] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include upstream companies with strong dividend attributes such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, as well as oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [3] - In the downstream refining sector, recommendations focus on large private refining companies with scale advantages and rich product layouts, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [3] - Companies with enhanced industrial chain synergy, like Tongkun Co. and Xin Fengming, are also suggested for attention [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sinopec, indicating a positive outlook on the company's long-term investment value in the context of industry competition [7]. Core Insights - Sinopec's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was under pressure due to declining oil and product prices, resulting in a 10.69% year-on-year decrease in revenue to CNY 2,113.44 billion and a 32.23% drop in net profit to CNY 29.98 billion [1][4]. - The average Brent crude oil price for the first three quarters of 2025 was USD 70 per barrel, down 15% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in the third quarter [4]. - The exploration and production segment saw a 2.2% increase in oil and gas equivalent production, reaching 394.48 million barrels, while natural gas production rose by 4.9% [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Sinopec reported revenue of CNY 704.39 billion, a 10.88% year-on-year decline but a 4.56% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The company's net profit for Q3 2025 was CNY 8.50 billion, a slight decrease of 0.50% year-on-year but a 3.43% increase from the previous quarter [2]. - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025, with estimates of CNY 40.41 billion, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [7]. Segment Performance - The exploration and production segment achieved operating income of CNY 355 billion, while refining, marketing, and chemical segments reported mixed results, with refining showing slight improvement [4]. - The refining segment optimized its processing load and adjusted product structure, resulting in a decrease in crude oil processed by 2.2% to 186 million tons [4][5]. - The chemical segment saw a 10% increase in light oil production, with ethylene output rising by 15.4% to 11.59 million tons [5]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that Sinopec, as a leading player in the petrochemical industry, is expected to benefit from the current competitive landscape characterized by limited new capacity and the exit of inefficient players [7]. - The anticipated recovery in the refining industry is expected to provide performance elasticity for Sinopec in the coming years [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Sinopec's performance in the first half of 2025 was under pressure due to weak supply and demand in the refining sector, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [1][4] - The report highlights that the company achieved a historical high in oil and gas equivalent production, despite a slight decrease in crude oil output [4][5] - The long-term investment value of Sinopec is viewed positively, given its position as a leading player in the petrochemical industry amid a competitive landscape [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, Sinopec reported total revenue of CNY 1,409.05 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 21.48 billion, down 39.83% [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of CNY 673.70 billion, a year-on-year decline of 14.31%, and a net profit of CNY 8.22 billion, down 52.73% [2] - The average Brent oil price in the first half of 2025 was USD 71 per barrel, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, impacting the company's inventory and overall performance [4] Segment Performance Summary - The exploration and development segment achieved operating income of CNY 23.6 billion, while refining, marketing, and chemical segments reported operating incomes of CNY 3.5 billion, CNY 8 billion, and a loss of CNY 4.2 billion, respectively [4] - The company processed 120 million tons of crude oil in the first half of 2025, producing 71.4 million tons of refined oil, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year [4] - The chemical segment showed improvement with ethylene production increasing by 16.4% year-on-year to 7.56 million tons [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is CNY 46.17 billion, CNY 47.86 billion, and CNY 51.73 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.38, CNY 0.39, and CNY 0.43 [7] - The report anticipates a net profit growth rate of -8.2% for 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 3.7% and 8.1% in 2026 and 2027 [7]