证券研究报告 印度宣布焦煤为战略性矿产， 看好焦煤弹性 ——煤炭行业周报（1月第4周） 2026年2月1日 行业评级：看好 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年1月30日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨3.98%，沪深300指数上涨0.08%，跑赢沪深300指数3.9个百分点。全板块整周30只股价上涨，6 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为14.5%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月23日-2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为758万吨，周环比增加0.9%，年同比增加59.6%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周增加1.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少2.7%，无烟煤销量较上周增加0.4%。截至2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为753万吨，周环比增加1.5%，年同比增加 56.5%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2225万吨，周环比减少1.5%，年同比减少25.2%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Securities indicates that the price of thermal coal has seen a significant decline this week, with both port and production prices falling, although previous pessimism has eased. Future winter demand, year-end supply contraction, and inventory reduction are expected to support price stabilization [1] Group 1: Thermal Coal Market - The price of thermal coal has experienced a broader decline this week, with both port and production prices decreasing [1] - Previous pessimistic sentiments in the market have started to ease, suggesting a potential for recovery [1] - Anticipated increases in winter consumption, along with a reduction in supply and inventory, are expected to support price stabilization [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal has remained stable to slightly increased, with the main coking coal stock at the Jing Tang port seeing a month-on-month price increase [1] - Production prices have remained relatively stable despite being in a low-demand season [1] - Low inventory levels, limited year-end supply increases, and downstream winter storage demand are expected to lead to narrow price fluctuations and stabilization [1] Group 3: Coal ETF and Index - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and related services to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - The index is noted for its strong industry representation and focuses on coal industry allocations [1]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Coking coal prices are rebounding due to seasonal restocking in downstream sectors, indicating a strong short-term outlook for coking coal prices [3][7] - Attention is required on the turning point of thermal coal port inventories, as prices are expected to stabilize after this point [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Current coking coal prices are supported by seasonal restocking, suggesting investment opportunities in the coking coal sector [3][60] - Thermal coal requires close monitoring of port inventory turning points, with potential price stabilization expected post-turning point. Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088, Buy), China Coal Energy (601898, Buy), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225, Buy), and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001, Buy) [3][60] Industry Fundamentals - Coking coal inventory trends show a shift from midstream to downstream, with sample steel mills' coking coal inventory at 8.05 million tons (up 1.30% MoM) and independent coking plants at 8.81 million tons (down 0.22% MoM) [7] - As of December 19, coking coal futures closed at 1,108 RMB/ton (up 9.00% MoM) [7] - Thermal coal demand remains weak, with port inventories at seasonal highs affecting railway shipment volumes [7] - The supply side shows coal mine operating rates at low levels, with 462 thermal coal mines operating at 90.4% capacity (down 2.1 percentage points MoM) [7][27] Price Trends and Valuation - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal has significantly rebounded, with the ratio at 1.40 as of December 19, compared to 1.20 the previous week [7] - The coal industry index PB is at 1.44 times, indicating a historical median valuation level [7][56]

Supply - Coal imports have continued to decline year-on-year, with a monthly decrease of 23% in September and a cumulative decline of 11.1% from January to September [1] - Domestic production is expected to remain constrained in Q4 due to stricter safety regulations and capacity verification documents [1] Demand - Despite being traditionally a low-demand season, hydropower generation has experienced negative growth from April to August due to ongoing drought conditions [1] - A peak demand season is anticipated in Q4, with significant cooling in northern regions, leading to an early start of heating in Taiyuan on October 19 [1] - Supply and demand are expected to remain tight [1] Q3 Profitability - The coal industry is projected to see improved performance in Q3, with potential early capital positioning [1] Dividends - The current dividend yield of the China Securities Coal Index stands at 4.99%, which may attract further capital inflow due to market risk aversion [1] - Since September, coal ETFs have attracted over 2 billion [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a slight increase in prices and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, suggesting a potential balance between supply and demand [6][23] - The report highlights the importance of positioning in high-dividend coal companies and those undergoing turnaround in coking coal and coke sectors [6][23] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 5, 2025, the CITIC coal industry index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.81%, resulting in a 0.91 percentage point advantage [2] - The highest weekly stock price increase was seen in Yunmei Energy, with a rise of 4.03% [2] Supply and Demand Data - Average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises were 6.67 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [2] - The average daily coal production was 6.64 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 25.85 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 9.1% year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was 676 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [3] - The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1550 CNY/ton, down 4.9% week-on-week [4] - The report notes fluctuations in prices across various coal types, with some showing declines while others have remained stable [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to rebound in September, with long-term contract prices for different grades of coal being 674, 613, and 551 CNY/ton respectively [6][23] - Recommended companies for investment include major thermal coal firms such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, as well as coking coal companies like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6][23]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) has seen significant inflows, with over 2 billion yuan in net inflows in the past 10 days and over 3 billion yuan in the past 20 days, bringing its total size to over 10.4 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF in the cyclical sector [1] - The National Energy Administration has organized inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure production adheres to announced capacities, emphasizing the importance of addressing "involution" in the industry [1] - In July, the total electricity consumption increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and thermal power generation rose by 4.3%, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [1] Group 2 - In July, raw coal production was 380 million tons, a decrease of 40 million tons month-on-month, primarily due to extreme weather conditions in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi affecting production and sales [1] - Looking ahead, it is expected that national coal production will slightly decline in the second half of the year due to "overproduction checks," with an annual production forecast of 4.75 to 4.8 billion tons, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The coal industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in the second quarter of 2025, with downwards risks being fully released, making it a favorable time for long-term capital allocation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a slow recovery in supply, with coal prices continuing to rise. The port coal price increased by 6 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 704 CNY/ton [3][13] - The supply side is constrained due to adverse weather conditions affecting production, particularly in the Ordos region, where capacity utilization has decreased by 1.42 percentage points [3][13] - Demand remains strong due to high temperatures, with daily coal consumption in coastal and inland power plants increasing by 11.2 and 14.8 thousand tons respectively [3][21] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, emphasizing their high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields [70] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Supply is tightening again, with port inventories decreasing and prices rising [3][13] - As of August 20, capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased to 88.57%, with a weekly production drop of 190 thousand tons [19] - Daily coal consumption in coastal power plants reached 249.6 thousand tons, up 11.2 thousand tons week-on-week [21] - Port inventories in northern regions decreased by 421 thousand tons week-on-week [25] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production recovery is limited, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.49 percentage points due to the resumption of previously halted mines [4][69] - The average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu port increased to 1212 trucks, up 132 trucks week-on-week [37] - Coking coal prices at the port remained stable at 1610 CNY/ton [34] 3. Coke - The seventh round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with an increase of 50-55 CNY/ton [46] - The overall inventory of coke remains low, with production rates showing some variability [53] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to 23 CNY/ton, up 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [49] 4. Investment Focus - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with a focus on companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [70] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of coal production, iron water output, and market conditions during the upcoming military parade [69][70]

Group 1 - The coal market is currently operating with a stable to strong trend, with both thermal coal and coking coal prices showing an upward trajectory [1] - Production limitations due to rainfall and some coal mines completing monthly tasks leading to production halts or reductions have tightened overall supply in the production areas [1] - The port's incoming coal volume is running at a low level, resulting in a continuous decline in inventory, making high-quality resources scarce in the market [1] Group 2 - Stable demand from end-users, recent price increases by large groups, and the continuous decline in inventory at northern ports have boosted market confidence, leading to increased purchasing enthusiasm among traders [1] - Current high shipping costs at ports and concentrated supply sources create a situation where prices are more likely to rise than fall, indicating a challenging environment for price declines [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and sales, highlighting the industry's cyclical nature and sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the negative impact from the mid-year report has been fully absorbed, and the fundamentals of the coal industry remain upward [1] - The coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.74% compared to a 1.09% increase in the index, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.83 percentage points [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.31 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventory by 4% week-on-week, while year-on-year inventory has increased by 19.8% [2] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector saw 6 stocks rise and 31 stocks fall during the week, with ST Dazhou showing the highest increase of 4.89% [2] - The average daily sales of thermal coal increased by 3.2% week-on-week, while coking coal sales rose by 1.9% [2] Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 663 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1420 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 8.4% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that social inventory continues to decline, and current demand remains promising, with domestic power plants showing a significant increase in daily coal consumption [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that are experiencing turnaround potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - Social inventory has decreased for the first time, and summer demand is expected to remain strong. Domestic power plants are increasing daily coal consumption, leading to rising coal prices. Policies to control production and improve quality are being emphasized, supporting the fundamentals of both coking coal and thermal coal [6][29] - The report highlights that the overall level of social inventory is stable, with a significant increase in daily consumption expected due to hot weather and ongoing replenishment needs at power plants. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to potential declines in capacity utilization driven by environmental factors [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82%. A total of 34 stocks in the sector increased in price, while 3 declined. Meijin Energy had the highest weekly increase at 10.8% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.21 million tons from July 4 to July 10, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 662 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. The price index for imported thermal coal rose by 1.21% to 750 CNY/ton [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1310 CNY/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke remained stable at 1320 CNY/ton [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 131.73 million tons as of July 10, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The demand from the power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year decrease of 3% and an increase of 16.6%, respectively [2][28] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in the power sector is expected to rise significantly, with the total social inventory of coal at 32.86 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.6% [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that may experience a turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Meijin Energy among others [6][29]