山西证券指出，动力煤本周价格回调幅度扩大，港口与产地价普跌，前期悲观情绪有所释放，后续冬季 日耗提升、年末供给收缩及库存回落将支撑其止跌企稳；炼焦煤本周稳中有升，京唐港主焦煤库提价环 比上涨，产地价基本平稳，虽处需求淡季，但库存低位、年末供给增量有限叠加下游冬储补库需求，预 计价格窄幅震荡趋稳。 煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪的是中证煤炭指数（399998），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开采、加工 及相关服务等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指 数具有较强的行业代表性，配置上侧重于煤炭产业。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存 拐点 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251215-20251221） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）当前焦煤价格正处于下游季节性补库带动下偏强的时期，建议关注焦煤 板块的配置机会；（2）动力煤需要重点关注港口库存拐点，在拐点出现后动力煤价格有 望止跌企稳，相关标的：、中国神华(601088，增持)、中煤能源(601898，增持)、陕西煤 业(601225，增持)、晋控煤业(601001，增持)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 21 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-633263 ...

Supply - Coal imports have continued to decline year-on-year, with a monthly decrease of 23% in September and a cumulative decline of 11.1% from January to September [1] - Domestic production is expected to remain constrained in Q4 due to stricter safety regulations and capacity verification documents [1] Demand - Despite being traditionally a low-demand season, hydropower generation has experienced negative growth from April to August due to ongoing drought conditions [1] - A peak demand season is anticipated in Q4, with significant cooling in northern regions, leading to an early start of heating in Taiyuan on October 19 [1] - Supply and demand are expected to remain tight [1] Q3 Profitability - The coal industry is projected to see improved performance in Q3, with potential early capital positioning [1] Dividends - The current dividend yield of the China Securities Coal Index stands at 4.99%, which may attract further capital inflow due to market risk aversion [1] - Since September, coal ETFs have attracted over 2 billion [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a slight increase in prices and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, suggesting a potential balance between supply and demand [6][23] - The report highlights the importance of positioning in high-dividend coal companies and those undergoing turnaround in coking coal and coke sectors [6][23] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 5, 2025, the CITIC coal industry index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.81%, resulting in a 0.91 percentage point advantage [2] - The highest weekly stock price increase was seen in Yunmei Energy, with a rise of 4.03% [2] Supply and Demand Data - Average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises were 6.67 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [2] - The average daily coal production was 6.64 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 25.85 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 9.1% year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was 676 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [3] - The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1550 CNY/ton, down 4.9% week-on-week [4] - The report notes fluctuations in prices across various coal types, with some showing declines while others have remained stable [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to rebound in September, with long-term contract prices for different grades of coal being 674, 613, and 551 CNY/ton respectively [6][23] - Recommended companies for investment include major thermal coal firms such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, as well as coking coal companies like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6][23]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) has seen significant inflows, with over 2 billion yuan in net inflows in the past 10 days and over 3 billion yuan in the past 20 days, bringing its total size to over 10.4 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF in the cyclical sector [1] - The National Energy Administration has organized inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure production adheres to announced capacities, emphasizing the importance of addressing "involution" in the industry [1] - In July, the total electricity consumption increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and thermal power generation rose by 4.3%, indicating a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [1] Group 2 - In July, raw coal production was 380 million tons, a decrease of 40 million tons month-on-month, primarily due to extreme weather conditions in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi affecting production and sales [1] - Looking ahead, it is expected that national coal production will slightly decline in the second half of the year due to "overproduction checks," with an annual production forecast of 4.75 to 4.8 billion tons, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The coal industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in the second quarter of 2025, with downwards risks being fully released, making it a favorable time for long-term capital allocation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a slow recovery in supply, with coal prices continuing to rise. The port coal price increased by 6 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 704 CNY/ton [3][13] - The supply side is constrained due to adverse weather conditions affecting production, particularly in the Ordos region, where capacity utilization has decreased by 1.42 percentage points [3][13] - Demand remains strong due to high temperatures, with daily coal consumption in coastal and inland power plants increasing by 11.2 and 14.8 thousand tons respectively [3][21] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, emphasizing their high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields [70] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Supply is tightening again, with port inventories decreasing and prices rising [3][13] - As of August 20, capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased to 88.57%, with a weekly production drop of 190 thousand tons [19] - Daily coal consumption in coastal power plants reached 249.6 thousand tons, up 11.2 thousand tons week-on-week [21] - Port inventories in northern regions decreased by 421 thousand tons week-on-week [25] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production recovery is limited, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.49 percentage points due to the resumption of previously halted mines [4][69] - The average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu port increased to 1212 trucks, up 132 trucks week-on-week [37] - Coking coal prices at the port remained stable at 1610 CNY/ton [34] 3. Coke - The seventh round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with an increase of 50-55 CNY/ton [46] - The overall inventory of coke remains low, with production rates showing some variability [53] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to 23 CNY/ton, up 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [49] 4. Investment Focus - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with a focus on companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [70] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of coal production, iron water output, and market conditions during the upcoming military parade [69][70]

Group 1 - The coal market is currently operating with a stable to strong trend, with both thermal coal and coking coal prices showing an upward trajectory [1] - Production limitations due to rainfall and some coal mines completing monthly tasks leading to production halts or reductions have tightened overall supply in the production areas [1] - The port's incoming coal volume is running at a low level, resulting in a continuous decline in inventory, making high-quality resources scarce in the market [1] Group 2 - Stable demand from end-users, recent price increases by large groups, and the continuous decline in inventory at northern ports have boosted market confidence, leading to increased purchasing enthusiasm among traders [1] - Current high shipping costs at ports and concentrated supply sources create a situation where prices are more likely to rise than fall, indicating a challenging environment for price declines [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and sales, highlighting the industry's cyclical nature and sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the negative impact from the mid-year report has been fully absorbed, and the fundamentals of the coal industry remain upward [1] - The coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.74% compared to a 1.09% increase in the index, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.83 percentage points [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.31 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventory by 4% week-on-week, while year-on-year inventory has increased by 19.8% [2] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector saw 6 stocks rise and 31 stocks fall during the week, with ST Dazhou showing the highest increase of 4.89% [2] - The average daily sales of thermal coal increased by 3.2% week-on-week, while coking coal sales rose by 1.9% [2] Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 663 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1420 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 8.4% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that social inventory continues to decline, and current demand remains promising, with domestic power plants showing a significant increase in daily coal consumption [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that are experiencing turnaround potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - Social inventory has decreased for the first time, and summer demand is expected to remain strong. Domestic power plants are increasing daily coal consumption, leading to rising coal prices. Policies to control production and improve quality are being emphasized, supporting the fundamentals of both coking coal and thermal coal [6][29] - The report highlights that the overall level of social inventory is stable, with a significant increase in daily consumption expected due to hot weather and ongoing replenishment needs at power plants. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to potential declines in capacity utilization driven by environmental factors [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82%. A total of 34 stocks in the sector increased in price, while 3 declined. Meijin Energy had the highest weekly increase at 10.8% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.21 million tons from July 4 to July 10, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 662 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. The price index for imported thermal coal rose by 1.21% to 750 CNY/ton [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1310 CNY/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke remained stable at 1320 CNY/ton [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 131.73 million tons as of July 10, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The demand from the power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year decrease of 3% and an increase of 16.6%, respectively [2][28] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in the power sector is expected to rise significantly, with the total social inventory of coal at 32.86 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.6% [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that may experience a turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Meijin Energy among others [6][29]

Group 1 - The coal industry is benefiting from technological breakthroughs and policy regulation, with significant developments in mining technology and a focus on improving product quality while phasing out outdated production capacity [1] - Recent increases in coal demand and high oil-coal price differentials have been noted, with domestic power plants experiencing higher daily consumption and rising coal prices [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need to control production and improve quality, while the Central Financial Committee has called for the regulation of low-price competition among enterprises [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) is the only ETF tracking the coal industry, covering leading companies across various segments such as thermal coal, coking coal, and coal chemicals, and is recognized as a high-dividend defensive investment tool [2] - The ETF has a scale of 4.63 billion yuan and is becoming a "cash cow" in the market, reflecting strong industry representation [2]