2025 年 08 月 24 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 [Table_Title] 供给恢复偏慢，煤价继续上行 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/08/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -1.4% | 2.8% | -1.1% | | 沪深 300 | 6.3% | 11.9% | 32.1% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：查超产影响下供给恢复偏 慢，煤炭基本面旺季强势依旧（推荐）*煤炭开采* 陈晨》——2025-08-17 《煤炭开采行业动态研究：7 月煤炭基本面超预期 改善（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-08-16 《煤炭开采事件点评：新《煤矿安全规程》的影响 如何？（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-08-14 《煤炭开采行业周报：本周港口煤价周涨幅创年内 最高，现货、长协结束倒挂（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈 晨》——2025-08-10 炼焦煤和焦炭来看，对于炼焦煤，本周样本煤矿（8/13-8/20）产 ...

Group 1 - The coal market is currently operating with a stable to strong trend, with both thermal coal and coking coal prices showing an upward trajectory [1] - Production limitations due to rainfall and some coal mines completing monthly tasks leading to production halts or reductions have tightened overall supply in the production areas [1] - The port's incoming coal volume is running at a low level, resulting in a continuous decline in inventory, making high-quality resources scarce in the market [1] Group 2 - Stable demand from end-users, recent price increases by large groups, and the continuous decline in inventory at northern ports have boosted market confidence, leading to increased purchasing enthusiasm among traders [1] - Current high shipping costs at ports and concentrated supply sources create a situation where prices are more likely to rise than fall, indicating a challenging environment for price declines [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and sales, highlighting the industry's cyclical nature and sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the negative impact from the mid-year report has been fully absorbed, and the fundamentals of the coal industry remain upward [1] - The coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.74% compared to a 1.09% increase in the index, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.83 percentage points [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.31 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventory by 4% week-on-week, while year-on-year inventory has increased by 19.8% [2] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector saw 6 stocks rise and 31 stocks fall during the week, with ST Dazhou showing the highest increase of 4.89% [2] - The average daily sales of thermal coal increased by 3.2% week-on-week, while coking coal sales rose by 1.9% [2] Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 663 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1420 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 8.4% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that social inventory continues to decline, and current demand remains promising, with domestic power plants showing a significant increase in daily coal consumption [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that are experiencing turnaround potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - Social inventory has decreased for the first time, and summer demand is expected to remain strong. Domestic power plants are increasing daily coal consumption, leading to rising coal prices. Policies to control production and improve quality are being emphasized, supporting the fundamentals of both coking coal and thermal coal [6][29] - The report highlights that the overall level of social inventory is stable, with a significant increase in daily consumption expected due to hot weather and ongoing replenishment needs at power plants. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to potential declines in capacity utilization driven by environmental factors [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82%. A total of 34 stocks in the sector increased in price, while 3 declined. Meijin Energy had the highest weekly increase at 10.8% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.21 million tons from July 4 to July 10, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 662 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. The price index for imported thermal coal rose by 1.21% to 750 CNY/ton [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1310 CNY/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke remained stable at 1320 CNY/ton [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 131.73 million tons as of July 10, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The demand from the power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year decrease of 3% and an increase of 16.6%, respectively [2][28] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in the power sector is expected to rise significantly, with the total social inventory of coal at 32.86 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.6% [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that may experience a turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Meijin Energy among others [6][29]

Group 1 - The coal industry is benefiting from technological breakthroughs and policy regulation, with significant developments in mining technology and a focus on improving product quality while phasing out outdated production capacity [1] - Recent increases in coal demand and high oil-coal price differentials have been noted, with domestic power plants experiencing higher daily consumption and rising coal prices [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need to control production and improve quality, while the Central Financial Committee has called for the regulation of low-price competition among enterprises [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) is the only ETF tracking the coal industry, covering leading companies across various segments such as thermal coal, coking coal, and coal chemicals, and is recognized as a high-dividend defensive investment tool [2] - The ETF has a scale of 4.63 billion yuan and is becoming a "cash cow" in the market, reflecting strong industry representation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to benefit from rising international oil prices and a gradual reduction in inventory levels [3]. - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to remain stable despite being in a traditional off-peak season, supported by supply constraints and reduced imports [3]. - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as the peak season approaches, driven by improved steel production and profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - June marks the annual "Safety Production Month" in China, emphasizing safety and emergency preparedness [9]. - Coal transportation from Xinjiang has increased, with a total of 39.4 million tons shipped out, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [9]. Price Trends for Thermal and Coking Coal - As of June 13, thermal coal prices remained stable, with various grades reporting little to no change [10][11]. - Coking coal prices have shown slight declines, but the report suggests a potential for stabilization as demand from steel mills increases [13]. International Oil Price Surge - Brent crude oil prices rose significantly, with a reported increase of $7.76 per barrel, marking an 11.67% rise [17]. - The relationship between international oil prices and coal prices has shown a downward trend, indicating a potential impact on coal pricing dynamics [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - Inventory levels at the Bohai Rim ports have decreased, with coal stock down to 28.688 million tons, a reduction of 63.10% week-on-week [22]. - Domestic shipping costs have declined, with average coastal shipping rates falling by 2.96% [29]. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [34]. - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal are recommended for their stable operations and high dividend yields [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rebound of thermal coal prices and the active investment in coal ETFs, with a net inflow of over 170 million yuan for five consecutive days [1] - Guosen Securities predicts a significant reduction in domestic supply by April 2025, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 18 million tons in national raw coal production, but a month-on-month decrease of about 51 million tons [1] - As of May 25, the cumulative production of sample coal mines in May showed a slight year-on-year increase but a minor month-on-month decline [1] Group 2 - In the first four months of 2024, the cumulative national raw coal production reached 1.58 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with April's production at 390 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.6% [1] - The coal ETF (code: 515220) is the only coal ETF in the market, tracking the CSI Coal Index (code: 399998), which includes listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and sales [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Coal ETF Connect C (008280) and Guotai CSI Coal ETF Connect A (008279) [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index, with a drop of 2.19% from April 28 to April 30, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.43%, resulting in a 1.76 percentage point underperformance [3] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.24 million tons, remaining flat week-on-week but down 1.9% year-on-year [3] - The total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises reached 33.07 million tons as of April 29, a decrease of 0.8% week-on-week but an increase of 32.6% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices by mid-May, driven by seasonal demand and a decrease in supply [7] Summary by Sections Industry Market Performance Review - The coal industry has underperformed, with a year-to-date decline of 14.42%, trailing the CSI 300 index by 10.24 percentage points [27] - The overall market performance of coal stocks was poor, with only 8 out of 37 stocks rising in price [28] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 7.24 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [3] - The cumulative coal sales volume for the year was 81.82 million tons, down 4.2% year-on-year [10] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was 677 CNY/ton, down 0.15% week-on-week [4] - The price of coking coal remained stable at 1400 CNY/ton, while the futures settlement price for coking coal was 927.5 CNY/ton, down 2.93% week-on-week [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [7] - It also recommends attention to coking coal companies like Huaibei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as coking companies with improved year-on-year profits like Jinneng Technology and Meijin Energy [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has faced pressure due to volume and price impacts, with a need to wait for demand recovery [1] - The overall performance of the coal sector has lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.76% compared to a 0.38% increase in the index [3] - The report anticipates short-term downward pressure on coal prices, with a potential rebound expected around mid-May [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal sector's year-to-date decline is 12.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.75 percentage points [25] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.18, showing a slight increase of 0.45 from the previous week [25] - Among 37 A-share stocks in the coal sector, 14 saw price increases, while 22 experienced declines [26] Supply and Demand - Average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises reached 7.24 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [3] - Total coal inventory at monitored enterprises was 33.34 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 28.4% [3] - The report notes that electricity and chemical industries have seen coal consumption changes, with electricity down by 5.2% and chemicals up by 17% year-on-year [3] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) remains stable at 678 CNY/ton, while the imported thermal coal price index increased by 0.95% to 849 CNY/ton [4] - The report highlights a downward trend in prices for both thermal and coking coal, with expectations for price recovery during peak demand seasons [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [7] - It also recommends attention to coking coal companies like Huaibei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as coking companies with improved profits like Jinneng Technology and Meijin Energy [7]