Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each variety: - **Thread Steel**: Hold [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Hold [1] - **Iron Ore**: Reduce Short Positions [1] - **Coke**: Hold [1] - **Coking Coal**: Hold [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously Bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously Bullish [1] Core Views - **Steel**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. For thread steel, production and apparent demand have both increased month - on - month, and total inventory has decreased slightly, with supply and demand relatively balanced. For hot rolled coil, production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions [1][3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, molten iron production has declined, supply - side shipments have increased, and arrivals have decreased due to typhoons, with expected subsequent increases in arrivals. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased. The market sentiment has turned cautious after the coking coal position limit, and attention should be paid to policy announcements [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot coke price increases have lagged behind futures since the previous low, the fourth round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further increases. Coke enterprises' profits are still in a loss state, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally relatively balanced, and inventory is relatively stable. Market sentiment may fluctuate due to policy expectations for later meetings [1][8][10]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has generally increased recently, and the absolute level is similar to the same period last year. Upstream inventory has transferred to downstream, and total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection of over - production on output may be limited. There is still a possibility of capital - game market conditions, and market sentiment may fluctuate due to later meetings and policy expectations [1][12][14]. - **Ferroalloys**: For silicomanganese, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. Manganese ore shipments and arrivals have continued to decline, mainly from South Africa, and the decline in port clearance volume has slowed, with expected low - level port inventory. The current port ore price is firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices. For ferrosilicon, last week's fundamentals showed both supply and demand increases, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure [1][16][18]. Summary by Variety Thread Steel - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3353, 3399, and 3294 respectively, with changes of 29, 88, and 20. Spot prices in different regions (Tangshan, Shanghai, etc.) range from 3150 to 3480, with price changes from - 20 to 60. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][2]. - **Fundamentals**: Production and apparent demand have both increased month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, and molten iron production has slightly declined but remains at a high level [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term market has entered high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to hold and pay attention to whether the end - of - month important meeting reiterates anti - involution policies, with a price range of [3340, 3400] [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3507, 3500, and 3503 respectively, with changes of 98, 81, and 106. Spot prices in different regions (Tianjin, Shanghai, etc.) range from 3420 to 3590, with price changes from 40 to 70. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][2]. - **Fundamentals**: Production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is currently trading around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production - restriction policies. The production - restriction news has boosted market expectations again, and the market has entered a high - level operation. It is advisable to hold and pay attention to the meeting results, with a price range of [3500, 3580] [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The report does not provide detailed price information but gives a price range of [790, 830] [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Molten iron production has declined, supply - side shipments have increased, and arrivals have decreased due to typhoons, with expected subsequent increases in arrivals. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce short positions and pay attention to policy announcements [1][7]. Coke - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (January, May, September) are 1690.5, 1746.5, and 1633.0 respectively, with price changes of 40.0, 69.5, and 24.5. Spot prices in different regions (Lüliang, Rizhao, etc.) range from 1180 to 1420, with price changes from - 10 to 50. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Spot coke price increases have lagged behind futures since the previous low, the fourth round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further increases. Coke enterprises' profits are still in a loss state, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally relatively balanced, and inventory is relatively stable [1][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to hold in the short term, with a price range of [1640, 1730] [1][11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (January, May, September) are 1214.5, 1241.0, and 1120.5 respectively, with price changes of 34.5, 56.5, and 20.0. Spot prices in different regions (Lüliang, Gujiao, etc.) range from 1150 to 1480, with price changes from - 93 to 0. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][13]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coking coal production has generally increased recently, and the absolute level is similar to the same period last year. Upstream inventory has transferred to downstream, and total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection of over - production on output may be limited [1][14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to hold in the short term, with a price range of [1120, 1174.5] [1][15]. Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 6286, 6306, and 6212 respectively, with price changes of 184, 176, and 184. Spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) range from 5800 to 5850, with price changes from 100 to 150. Basis, spreads, and other data also show different values and changes [1][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. Manganese ore shipments and arrivals have continued to decline, mainly from South Africa, and the decline in port clearance volume has slowed, with expected low - level port inventory. The current port ore price is firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices [1][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Market sentiment has cooled. Continue to pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and the performance of coking coal, with an expected price range of [6070, 6356] [1][19]. Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 6216, 6230, and 6110 respectively, with price changes of 268, 240, and 270. Spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) range from 5600 to 5650, with price changes from 0 to 50. Basis, spreads, and other data also show different values and changes [1][17]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week's fundamentals showed both supply and demand increases, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure [1][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, market sentiment has cooled. Continue to pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and the performance of coking coal. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still be under pressure, with a price range of [5950, 6270] [1][19].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3399 | 46 | 热卷01 | 3518 | 46 | | 螺纹05 | 3418 | 40 | 热卷05 | 3522 | 43 | | 螺纹10 | 3356 | 62 | 热卷10 | 3507 | 51 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 3160 | 40 | 张家港废钢 | 2140 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3280 | 20 | 热卷： 天津 | 3440 | 30 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3430 | 50 | 热卷:上海 | 3500 | 30 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3490 | 40 | 热卷:杭州 | 3530 | 30 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3490 | 20 | 热卷:广州 | 3510 | 40 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3470 | 40 | 热卷:成都 | 3590 | 20 | | 基差 | 最新 | ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3324 | -43 | 热卷01 | 3448 | -44 | | 螺纹05 | 3350 | -36 | 热卷05 | 3459 | -31 | | 螺纹10 | 3274 | -33 | 热卷10 | 3438 | -39 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 3110 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2140 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3260 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3410 | -10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3380 | 10 | 热卷:上海 | 3450 | -20 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3430 | 10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3500 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3480 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3480 | -10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3430 | 1 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3570 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term long - position profit - taking, mid - term short - position layout [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: Stay on the sidelines [1][9][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Stay on the sidelines [1][13][15][16] - **Ferroalloys**: Cautiously bullish [1][17][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The news of coal production restrictions drives the overall upward movement of the black market, strengthening the bullish sentiment. For rebar, production and apparent demand decline month - on - month, with a slight increase in total inventory, showing off - season characteristics. The significant increase in hot metal production boosts the expected demand for furnace materials. For hot - rolled coils, production, apparent demand, and inventory change little, with a relatively stable fundamental situation and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal production increases significantly, with both supply - side shipments and arrivals rising, and there will be more shipments later. Ports are destocking while steel mills are restocking. Recently, steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the locked - in profits on the futures market drive the strong performance of iron ore. However, as the recent rise is rapid, there are profit - taking opportunities, so previous long positions should be closed, and attention should be paid to the subsequent supply - side reform policies [1][7]. - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increases has started, and there are still expectations for further increases. The news of coal production restrictions boosts market sentiment. After the rapid price increase, steel mills' restocking makes the market more positive. However, the current market atmosphere seems overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: The news of coal production restrictions strengthens the bullish sentiment in the market, and the futures price has risen significantly recently. In terms of supply and demand, domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching last year's level. Some shut - down coal mines have resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase later. The inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, and the total inventory remains stable. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. However, the futures market sentiment is overly exuberant, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply increases while the demand decreases. Although the hot metal production is at a high level, the month - on - month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for ferromanganese, but the slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost. For ferrosilicon, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The factory inventory pressure has been relieved, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3367 with a rise of 90; rebar 05 is at 3386 with a rise of 93; rebar 10 is at 3307 with a rise of 83. Hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3492 with a rise of 82; hot - rolled coil 05 is at 3490 with a rise of 77; hot - rolled coil 10 is at 3477 with a rise of 83. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also show certain changes [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Rebar is expected to continue its strong performance with limited short - term decline due to policy expectations and the increase in hot metal production. Hot - rolled coils may maintain a strong short - term trend due to factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production restrictions, as well as the sharp rise in raw material prices [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore 01 is at 794 with a rise of 17; iron ore 05 is at 771 with a rise of 16; iron ore 09 is at 823 with a rise of 14. The prices of various iron ore powders also change accordingly, and there are also fluctuations in spreads, basis, freight rates, and spot indices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should take profits, and mid - term short positions can be considered [1][8]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coke is at 1752.0 with a rise of 98.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1797.5 with a rise of 98.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1697.5 with a rise of 94.5. There are also changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as capacity utilization, production, and inventory [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines due to the over - exuberant market atmosphere [1][12]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: The 1 - month contract of coking coal is at 1137.0 with a rise of 81.0; the 5 - month contract is at 1154.0 with a rise of 79.5; the 9 - month contract is at 1048.5 with a rise of 42.5. There are changes in basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as the start - up rate of coal washing plants, production, and inventory [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines because of the overly exuberant futures market sentiment [1][16]. Ferroalloys - **Price Information**: Manganese silicon 01 is at 6084 with a rise of 120; manganese silicon 05 is at 6130 with a rise of 142; manganese silicon 09 is at 6012 with a rise of 98. Silicon iron 01 is at 5952 with a rise of 206; silicon iron 05 is at 6012 with a rise of 220; silicon iron 09 is at 5874 with a rise of 206. There are also changes in spot prices, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise start - up rates and production [18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, short - term trading is mainly driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the price may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state. For ferrosilicon, the short - term high market sentiment may lead to a correction, and in the medium term, the price will still face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish [3] - Iron Ore: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [9] - Coke: Bullish [10] - Coking Coal: Bullish [14] - Ferroalloys: Bullish [18] Core Views - The steel market is driven by factors such as government policies on capacity reduction and raw material price increases, and is expected to continue its strong performance. The iron ore market has seen an increase in iron - making water production and supply, but due to rapid price increases, short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short positions can be considered. The coke market has a rising expectation of price hikes and a warm market atmosphere. The coking coal market has improved supply and demand conditions and positive market sentiment. The ferroalloy market is mainly driven by market sentiment, with medium - term supply expected to return to a loose state [4][8][12][16][20]. Summary by Variety Steel 1. Rebar - **View**: Driven by government capacity - reduction policies and raw material price increases, although it is in the off - season with declining production and demand and rising inventory, it is expected to run strongly due to increased iron - making water production and positive market sentiment. Price range: [3200, 3250] [1][4][5] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3277, 3293, and 3224 respectively, with increases of 86, 86, and 77. Spot prices in different regions range from 3060 to 3450, with price increases of 30 - 80 [2] 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **View**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term due to factors such as macro - policies and raw material price increases. Price range: [3370, 3420] [1][4][5] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3410, 3413, and 3394 respectively, with increases of 90, 86, and 84. Spot prices in different regions range from 3340 to 3520, with price increases of 70 - 90 [2] Iron Ore - **View**: The production of iron - making water has increased significantly, and supply has also increased. The market has strengthened due to strong steel - mill profits, but rapid price increases have compressed profit margins, so short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short positions can be considered. Price range: [790, 830] [1][8][9] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 777, 755, and 809 respectively, with increases of 24. Spot prices of different iron ore powders range from 675 to 815, with price increases of 5 - 25 [6] Coke - **View**: After the first round of spot price hikes, there is an expectation of further hikes. Market sentiment is positive due to factors such as production - restriction news and steel - mill restocking, and it is expected to run strongly. Price range: [1600, 1640] [1][12][13] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1654, 1699, and 1603 respectively, with increases of 85 - 101. Spot prices in different regions range from 1030 to 1340, with some prices remaining unchanged and some increasing by 70 [11] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic production has recovered, supply is expected to increase, upstream inventory has decreased, and market sentiment has improved. Driven by downstream restocking, it is expected to run strongly in the short term. Price range: [1000, 1040] [1][16][17] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1056, 1074.5, and 1006 respectively, with increases of 80 - 83.5. Spot prices in different regions range from 1008 to 1390, with price increases of 50 - 58 [15] Ferroalloys 1. Manganese Silicon - **View**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. In the short term, it is mainly driven by market sentiment, and in the medium term, the price may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. Price range: [5820, 6010] [1][20][21] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5964, 5988, and 5914 respectively, with increases of 110 - 138. Spot prices in different regions range from 5650 to 5700, with price increases of 30 - 50 [19] 2. Ferrosilicon - **View**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. There is pressure from delivery inventory. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium term, the price may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage. Price range: [5570, 5770] [1][20][21] - **Price Data**: Futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5746, 5792, and 5668 respectively, with increases of 160 - 180. Spot prices in different regions range from 5330 to 5400, with price increases of 50 [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [3][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [8][9] - Coke: Bullish [10][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [14][17] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Sideways [18][21] Core Views of the Report - Multiple factors drive steel prices to continue rising, with rebar showing off-season characteristics and hot-rolled coil having a relatively stable fundamentals [4] - Iron ore prices are strong due to increased iron production, but rapid price increases compress profit margins, so chasing the rise is not advisable [8] - After the first round of coke price increases, there are expectations for further increases, and the market sentiment is positive [12] - Coking coal production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and the market sentiment is improving, with downstream restocking boosting the market [16] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, and prices may face pressure in the medium term [20][21] Summary by Variety Steel - **Rebar** - **View**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced capacity reduction in the steel industry, and the sharp rise in raw materials drives up steel prices. Rebar production and apparent demand continue to decline month-on-month, and total inventory rises slightly, showing off-season characteristics [4] - **Operation**: Iron production increases significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials. The market sentiment is strong, and it may continue to run strongly, with a price range of [3170, 3220] [1] - **Hot-rolled coil** - **View**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, and the fundamentals are relatively stable with limited contradictions [4] - **Operation**: The market trades around factors such as macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production restriction policies. The sharp rise in raw materials also promotes the strong performance of steel, and it may maintain a strong operation in the short term, with a price range of [3350, 3400] [1] Iron Ore - **View**: Iron production increases significantly, supply and arrivals both increase, and inventories at ports and steel mills accumulate. Steel mills have good profits and strong production enthusiasm, driving up the price of iron ore. However, the rapid price increase compresses the profit margin on the futures market [8] - **Operation**: Short-term observation is recommended, and medium-term short positions can be considered, with a price range of [780, 820] [1][9] Coke - **View**: After the first round of price increases, there are expectations for further increases. Market rumors of production restrictions affect sentiment, and steel mill restocking makes the market more positive [12] - **Operation**: It may maintain a strong operation, with a price range of [1520, 1570] [1][13] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic coking coal production has rebounded recently, approaching the level of the same period last year. Some coal mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot transactions have improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking boosts the market [16] - **Operation**: It may continue to run strongly in the short term, with a price range of [930, 970] [1][17] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Silicomanganese** - **View**: The fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. Although iron production is high, the significant month-on-month decline in rebar production drags down the demand for silicomanganese. The slight increase in raw material prices strongly supports the cost [20] - **Operation**: In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the increase is relatively limited compared to other black commodities. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton, with a price range of [5710, 5900] [1][21] - **Ferrosilicon** - **View**: The fundamentals also show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, and there is obvious near-term warehouse receipt pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of inter-month reverse arbitrage [20] - **Operation**: In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still face pressure, with a price range of [5410, 5605] [1][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [1][3][4][5] - Iron ore: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish [1][10][12][13] - Coking coal: Bullish [1][14][16][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Range-bound [1][18][20][21] Core Views of the Report - The steel market continues to be driven by production cut news and significant increases in raw material prices, with rebar showing seasonal weakness in production and demand but still expected to run strongly due to increased hot metal production and positive market sentiment; hot-rolled coil has relatively stable fundamentals and may maintain a strong trend in the short term due to macro policies and raw material price increases [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has seen a significant increase in hot metal production, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins, so it is not advisable to chase the rise, and short-term observation is recommended while considering short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - The coke market has seen the first round of spot price increases implemented, with expectations of further increases. Market sentiment is affected by production cut news, and steel mill restocking has made the market more positive, so it may maintain a strong trend [1][12][13] - The coking coal market has seen a recent increase in domestic production, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased, spot trading has improved, and downstream restocking has boosted the market, so it may continue to run strongly in the short term [1][16][17] - The ferroalloy market has limited supply-demand contradictions. The ferromanganese market has increasing supply and decreasing demand, with cost support from manganese ore but potential cost weakening. The ferrosilicon market has both supply and demand decreasing, with lower production area electricity prices and high factory inventories, so it is expected to trade within a range [1][20][21] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - **Market situation**: There are still occasional production cut news, and significant increases in raw material prices drive the steel price up. Production and apparent demand have decreased month-on-month, total inventory has increased slightly, showing obvious seasonal weakness. Hot metal production has increased significantly, driving up the expected demand for furnace materials [1][4][5] - **Price range**: [3150, 3190] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May continue to run strongly [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory changes are small, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions. The market is trading around macro policies, anti-involution, and industry production cut policies, and raw material price increases have also pushed up the steel price [1][4][5] - **Price range**: [3320, 3360] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May maintain a strong trend in the short term [1][5] Iron Ore - **Market situation**: Hot metal production has increased significantly, with both supply and arrivals increasing, and subsequent shipments expected to rise. Ports and steel mills have both seen inventory accumulation. Steel mills have good profits and high production enthusiasm, and locking in profits on the futures market has driven up the iron ore price. However, the rapid recent price increase has compressed profit margins [1][8] - **Price range**: [785, 815] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term observation, consider short positions in the medium term [1][9] Coke - **Market situation**: The first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations of further increases. There is a lot of production cut news in the market, which affects market sentiment. Steel mill restocking after the rapid price increase has made the market more positive [1][12] - **Price range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May maintain a strong trend [1][13] Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Domestic production has recently increased, approaching last year's levels. Some mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month-on-month, spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Downstream restocking has boosted the market [1][16] - **Price range**: [920, 950] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: May continue to run strongly in the short term [1][17] Ferroalloys Ferromanganese - **Market situation**: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost weakening due to lower electricity costs in multiple production areas and slightly lower long-term quotes from some mines. Hot metal production is at a high level, providing rigid support for ferromanganese demand [1][20] - **Price range**: [5700, 5890] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton integer mark [1][21] Ferrosilicon - **Market situation**: Both supply and demand are decreasing. Production area electricity prices have decreased, further lowering the cost line. Factory inventories are still relatively high, some factories plan to resume production, and the downstream consumption off-season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de-stocking [1][20] - **Price range**: [5390, 5575] [1] - **Operation suggestion**: Short-term trading is mainly sentiment-driven, and the market is expected to trade within a range [1][21]