Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Demand expectations are weak and there are phased emission reduction controls. Steel mills have started to lower raw material purchase prices, while the supply side is in the recovery period, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the rebound space of coking coal and coke prices is limited [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Market Situation**: On March 5, 2026, according to Mysteel, some steel mills in the Hebei region began to lower the coke purchase price. The wet - quenched coke was reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and the dry - quenched coke was reduced by 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented on March 6. Affected by market sentiment, coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated and declined, and coking coal basically gave back the previous day's gains, showing a wide - range volatile trend. The price of coking coal in the production area was reduced by 20 - 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Policy Impact**: During the important meeting this week, on the one hand, pay attention to the changes in macro - policy expectations; on the other hand, some steel enterprises in North China will implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11. At that time, the blast furnace load will be independently reduced by no less than 30%, which will put some pressure on the demand for coking coal and other furnace materials in the short term [2]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Supply**: This week, coal mines continued the resumption process. After the Lantern Festival, coal mines in the main production areas basically resumed production comprehensively. This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.829 million tons and 748,000 tons respectively, an increase of 313,000 tons and 99,000 tons compared with the previous week. After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port has returned to a relatively high level. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume was about 176,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area was still at a high level, suppressing the futures price [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces was about 2.33 million tons. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed the raw material inventory in the factory. Some coking enterprises had limited coke外运, and the inventory in the factory was accumulated. Affected by the environmental protection and production restriction policy this week, it is expected that the growth rhythm of hot metal production may slow down [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - During the important national meetings, steel mills are expected to implement phased emission reduction controls, putting pressure on the rigid demand for coking coal and other furnace materials. The mining end is in the复产 phase, and the supply - demand mismatch may lead to the weak operation of coking coal prices [2] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher at the end of the day, with a slight correction in night - trading prices, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern. Spot prices in the production areas remained stable for the time being, while port resource prices fluctuated slightly [2] Impact of External Events - The escalation of the overseas situation over the weekend had a relatively limited impact on the ferrous metal sector [2] Policy Influences - This week, important national meetings will be held. On one hand, pay attention to the expected changes in macro policies. On the other hand, some steel enterprises in North China will implement phased emission reduction controls from March 4th to March 11th, with blast furnace loads reducing emissions independently by no less than 30%. Short - term emission reduction measures will put pressure on the demand for coking coal and other furnace materials [2] Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - Last week, coal mines entered the peak of resuming production, with most private coal mines starting to resume production. The daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.516 million tons and 0.649 million tons respectively, an increase of 0.43 million tons and 0.19 million tons compared to the previous week. After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of about 176,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area is still at a high level, suppressing the futures prices [2] Demand - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces was about 2.33 million tons. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed their in - plant raw material inventories. Some coking enterprises had restricted coke transportation, resulting in an increase in in - plant inventory. Affected by environmental protection and production restriction policies this week, the growth rhythm of hot metal output is expected to slow down [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the overall supply of coking coal and coke has increased month - on - month, and downstream replenishment is nearing the end. The upward driving force for coal prices is not strong. It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded slightly and fluctuated at night. In the spot market, some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan regions raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 30th, and this round of price increases is gradually being implemented. This week, the price of coking coal has been generally weak and stable [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Near the Spring Festival, some regional coal mines have reduced production due to safety inspections and underground conditions. This week, the production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.978 million tons and 0.771 million tons respectively. It is expected that private mines will gradually stop or reduce production during the holiday next week, and the overall production will decrease significantly. However, recently, downstream coking and steel enterprises have been actively transporting for order inventory, and the inventory at the mine end has decreased slightly, which is in line with seasonal patterns. In terms of imports, last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons compared with the previous week and 32,400 tons compared with the same period last year, and the port inventory remains at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [2] - **Demand side**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of the daily average pig iron production has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 90 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 26,500 tons compared with the same period last year [2]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The fundamental performance remains weak, lacking support for price rebound, and the price is under overall pressure [3] Group 3 Market performance - Before the New Year's Day holiday, the coking coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, maintaining an overall volatile trend [3] - Last week, steel mills completed the fourth round of price cuts for coke prices. Since the end of November, the coke price has cumulatively dropped by 200 - 220 yuan/ton. Coke enterprises' profits have been continuously compressed, and some coke enterprises in certain regions have plans to raise prices [3] Supply side - In the last week of the year, major coal - producing areas began to conduct centralized year - end production reduction and maintenance. The reduction in coal mines was obvious. The daily production of raw coal was 1.772 million tons, and the daily production of clean coal was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons and 49,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week [3] - The market transactions were still sluggish, and the inventory at the mine end further accumulated [3] - On December 29th and January 1st, the three major ports were closed and resumed customs clearance on January 2nd. At the beginning of the month, the average daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port was 156,200 tons, an increase of 37,600 tons year - on - year, remaining at a relatively high level [3] Demand side - In the past two weeks, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills' blast furnaces stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 2nd, it was 2.2743 million tons, an increase of 8,500 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 22,300 tons year - on - year. It is expected to maintain this level in the short term [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent market sentiment has slightly improved, and prices are experiencing a periodic rebound, but the fundamentals remain weak and lack support for the price rebound [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures opened high and closed low, ending the session with a decline, and continued the weak and volatile trend at night with relatively sharp price fluctuations. Spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained stable for the time being. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [3] Supply - This week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the year. Coking enterprises began to replenish stocks moderately, but overall market transactions remained weak. The long - term agreement of large mines had low cost - effectiveness, and downstream buyers were inactive. Mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 5.4 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 4.2 tons and 10.1 tons respectively [3] Demand - Demand improved slightly this week. The molten iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling at 2.2658 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 tons, and it is expected to maintain this level in the short term [3] Import - Customs data showed that China's coking coal imports have generally remained at a relatively high level in recent months. In November, imports were 1.07315 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November, cumulative imports were 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, imports of Mongolian coking coal were 624,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data showed that Mongolian coal clearance remained high in December, and the inventory in the port supervision area mainly increased. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed for one day on December 29 (next Monday) for Mongolia's National Liberation and Independence Day and will resume clearance on December 30; on January 1 (next Thursday), the three major ports will be closed for New Year's Day and will resume clearance on January 2 [3]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that after the rapid decline of the futures price, the pessimistic sentiment is released, and the price experiences a periodic rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [3] Group 3 - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, closing higher at the end of the session. The spot market is generally weak and stable, and the auction failure rate in the market has steadily decreased. After two rounds of price cuts, the coke price has temporarily stabilized [3] - From a fundamental perspective, coal mines continue to reduce production, and downstream replenishment has gradually started. Last week, the inventory accumulation rate at the mine end slowed down, and sales improved after some coal mines reduced prices. However, due to the still negative market sentiment, coal prices are under pressure, and the market needs to wait for the concentrated release of downstream replenishment demand to stop falling and stabilize [3] - The import of coking coal remains at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal was 188,000 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 84,000 tons year-on-year. In addition, the overall arrival volume of seaborne coal remains high at 9.4941 million tons [3] - In terms of demand, the pressure of the seasonal off - season will become more apparent. The profitability rate of steel mills is about 35%. The blast furnace hot metal output is still in a slow decline trend, dropping to 2.292 million tons last week, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 32,700 tons year - on - year, which continuously suppresses the rigid demand for raw materials [3] - Recently, attention should be paid to the changes in the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills after the decline in coal and coke prices [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high customs clearance expectation of Mongolian coal is strengthened, and the coking coal and coke prices lack upward driving force, and are expected to operate under pressure. Currently, the main contract of coking coal futures has switched to the 2605 contract, and the price has not stabilized yet, so operations need to be cautious [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, in a weak market atmosphere, the pressure test at the Ceke Port of Mongolian coal was completed beyond expectations, intensifying the market's pessimistic sentiment, and the center of the coking coal and coke futures prices moved down again. The spot market is generally weak, with the price of imported Mongolian coal leading the decline and domestic coal prices following suit. Steel mills have completed the first round of price cuts for coke, and there is still an expectation of further cuts [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: It is expected that the supply of coking coal will maintain a relatively stable pattern. The production of domestic coking coal mines is relatively limitedly boosted by coal supply guarantee, and it is difficult for the coking coal output to increase significantly in the off - season of downstream demand. The import of coking coal remains at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal increased to 192,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 67,700 tons. On Monday of this week, the Ceke Port conducted a customs clearance pressure test, with 2,126 vehicles cleared on the test day, exceeding the expected 2,000 vehicles. Previously, the daily customs clearance at the Ceke Port was about 1,000 vehicles. The high customs clearance expectation intensified the pessimistic sentiment. In addition, the overall arrival volume of seaborne coal last week was 9.5863 million tons, reaching a new high since November last year [2] - **Demand**: The pressure of the seasonal off - season will be further manifested. The profitability rate of steel mills is about 35%, and the blast furnace hot metal production is still in a slow decline trend, which continuously suppresses the rigid demand for raw materials. Since December, steel mills have begun to transfer the pressure to the raw material end. The key variable of demand lies in the inventory replenishment rhythm before the Spring Festival. If downstream enterprises start to replenish raw material inventories intensively in mid - to late December, the demand side may receive short - term support, but the intensity of inventory replenishment will still be restricted by finished product sales and profit conditions, and the sustainability is expected to be weak [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market in Shanxi is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance in Q4 2023, with prices rising due to limited supply and strong demand, despite some pressure on coke producers from rising raw material costs [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The coal and coke market has shown a "V" shaped recovery since 2025, with a significant rebound in the second half of the year after a period of oversupply and price declines [3]. - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines in Shanxi was 84.53%, down 6.16% year-on-year, indicating reduced production capacity [6]. - Coking coal prices have reached new highs, with Anze low-sulfur coking coal increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 1710 CNY/ton, a total increase of 170 CNY/ton since October [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand remains strong, with coal mines reporting full orders and low inventory levels, leading to expectations of stable or rising prices until the end of the year [6][9]. - Trade merchants are actively replenishing inventory, anticipating that coal prices will not decline significantly before year-end [3][9]. - Despite the strong demand, some high-sulfur coking coal prices have seen slight declines due to rapid price increases leading to weakened purchasing demand [6]. Group 3: Challenges for Coking Enterprises - Coking enterprises are facing profit pressures due to the rising costs of raw materials, with coking coal prices increasing significantly while coke price increases lag behind [7][8]. - The price of low-sulfur coking coal has risen from 1144 CNY/ton to 1688 CNY/ton since mid-June, while the price of coke has only increased from 990 CNY/ton to 1440 CNY/ton, indicating a disparity in profit margins [7]. - Some coking enterprises are considering reducing supply to clients who do not accept price increases, as they face challenges in maintaining profitability [4][16]. Group 4: Inventory and Trading Strategies - Current inventory levels are low, with many traders indicating that they will wait for a price correction of 50-100 CNY/ton before increasing purchases [9][19]. - A significant portion of the market is cautious about replenishing inventory due to the rapid rise in coal prices, with many traders preferring to wait for a market pullback [9][19]. - The futures market has shown a divergence from the spot market, with concerns about the quality and pricing of delivery affecting trader confidence [10]. Group 5: Company Insights - Company A, a leading coking coal producer, reports strong sales with no inventory pressure, but production capacity is limited due to aging mines [12][13]. - Company B, a major coking enterprise, is facing profit challenges due to high raw material costs and plans to adjust its purchasing strategy based on coal price movements [15][16]. - Company C, a local coal producer, has a strong order book and expects continued demand through year-end, with prices remaining high [17].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly rebounded; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price is still running within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to the Directory - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, and there was a sharp decline at night. The decline of the near - month coking coal contract exceeded 3.5%, and it traded at a discount to the spot, with the weak delivery logic dragging down the near - month price. The coking coal spot market stabilized, and coke completed the fourth round of price increase [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side**: Last week, coal mine production in many parts of Shanxi recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Although most coal mines have little inventory pressure, the raw coal inventory of coal mines has stopped falling and started to rise, and it will be a bit difficult for coal prices to rise later. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, an increase of 1.9 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.3 tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to November 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 tons, a decrease of 2.07 tons compared with the previous week, but still at a relatively high level overall, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side**: The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. Recently, the phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area was lifted, which promoted the recovery of hot metal production. The daily average hot metal production last week recovered to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week. Later, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and the changes in the production rhythm of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the thread steel and hot-rolled coil sector, the supply-demand situation shows that the apparent demand for thread steel decreased last week, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot-rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. As steel mill profit margins have dropped sharply and the peak consumption period has passed, mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have weakened, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, on the daily K-line chart, both thread steel and hot-rolled coil have risen rapidly in the short term, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and while prices may stabilize, the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Regarding the iron ore sector, last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to follow the seasonal trend and decline, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Steel and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel's apparent demand, production, and inventory decreased last week. Hot-rolled coil inventory decreased but was still above historical levels. Steel mill profit margins dropped, and production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, short-term rapid price increases face resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [2]. - **Data**: Includes various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, production, inventory, and demand data [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to decline, putting pressure on raw material prices [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [5]. - **Data**: Covers various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, shipment volumes, freight rates, exchange rates, arrival and departure volumes, and inventory data [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From November 10 - 16, 2025, China's 47-port iron ore arrivals totaled 2369.9 million tons, a decrease of 399.4 million tons from the previous period; 45-port arrivals totaled 2268.9 million tons, a decrease of 472.3 million tons; and northern six-port arrivals totaled 1041.3 million tons, a decrease of 484.5 million tons [7]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3516.4 million tons, an increase of 447.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2908.7 million tons, an increase of 360.1 million tons [8]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown. It has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and mainly produces low-sulfur coking coal. It is currently in the commissioning phase and is expected to resume production this week [8]. - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate increased. The total listed volume was 1.445 million tons, the成交 volume was 1.039 million tons, and the failure rate was 28.1%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points from the previous period. Auction prices mostly rose, and the daily price fluctuation range increased significantly [8]. - Coking enterprise operating rates continued to decline. The actual production in this period was 3.1782 million tons, a decrease of 0.0015 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the operating rate was 67.49%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period; inventory decreased to 0.3465 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous period [8]. - The UK is formulating countermeasures as Prime Minister Starmer fails to reach an agreement to mitigate the impact of the EU's proposed steel tariff increase. The EU plans to cut the existing foreign steel tariff-free quota by nearly half and double the tariff on excess quotas to 50% [9].