晨报 煤焦 煤焦：钢厂调降焦价 盘面宽幅震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 观点：需求预期偏弱叠加阶段性减排管控，钢厂开始调降原料采购价 格，而供给端处于恢复期，整体表现供强需弱；预计煤焦价格反弹空间有 限。 后期关注/风险因素：关注煤矿复产、钢厂减排管控情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：0 ...

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2026 年 3 月 3 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格先抑后扬，尾盘小幅收涨，夜盘价格小幅 回调，整体维持震荡运行。产地现货价格暂稳，港口资源价格小幅波动。 周末期间海外局势升级，但对黑色金属板块影响相对有限。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：蒙煤通关恢复至高位 价格延续震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 本周将迎来全国重要会议召开，一方面关注宏观政策预期变化；另一 方面关注华北部分钢企将在 3 月 4 日—3 月 11 日执行阶段性减排管控， 届时高炉负荷按不低于 30%比例自主减 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the overall supply of coking coal and coke has increased month - on - month, and downstream replenishment is nearing the end. The upward driving force for coal prices is not strong. It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded slightly and fluctuated at night. In the spot market, some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan regions raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 30th, and this round of price increases is gradually being implemented. This week, the price of coking coal has been generally weak and stable [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Near the Spring Festival, some regional coal mines have reduced production due to safety inspections and underground conditions. This week, the production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.978 million tons and 0.771 million tons respectively. It is expected that private mines will gradually stop or reduce production during the holiday next week, and the overall production will decrease significantly. However, recently, downstream coking and steel enterprises have been actively transporting for order inventory, and the inventory at the mine end has decreased slightly, which is in line with seasonal patterns. In terms of imports, last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons compared with the previous week and 32,400 tons compared with the same period last year, and the port inventory remains at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [2] - **Demand side**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of the daily average pig iron production has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 90 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 26,500 tons compared with the same period last year [2]

晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 5 日 逻辑：元旦节前一周，煤焦期货价格先抑后扬，整体维持震荡走势。 现货方面，上周钢厂完成对焦价的第 4 轮调降，自 11 月底至此焦价累计 下跌 200-220 元/吨。焦企利润被持续压缩，个别地区焦企有提涨计划。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：矿端保持增库 价格承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent market sentiment has slightly improved, and prices are experiencing a periodic rebound, but the fundamentals remain weak and lack support for the price rebound [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures opened high and closed low, ending the session with a decline, and continued the weak and volatile trend at night with relatively sharp price fluctuations. Spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained stable for the time being. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [3] Supply - This week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the year. Coking enterprises began to replenish stocks moderately, but overall market transactions remained weak. The long - term agreement of large mines had low cost - effectiveness, and downstream buyers were inactive. Mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 5.4 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 4.2 tons and 10.1 tons respectively [3] Demand - Demand improved slightly this week. The molten iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling at 2.2658 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 tons, and it is expected to maintain this level in the short term [3] Import - Customs data showed that China's coking coal imports have generally remained at a relatively high level in recent months. In November, imports were 1.07315 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November, cumulative imports were 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, imports of Mongolian coking coal were 624,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data showed that Mongolian coal clearance remained high in December, and the inventory in the port supervision area mainly increased. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed for one day on December 29 (next Monday) for Mongolia's National Liberation and Independence Day and will resume clearance on December 30; on January 1 (next Thursday), the three major ports will be closed for New Year's Day and will resume clearance on January 2 [3]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that after the rapid decline of the futures price, the pessimistic sentiment is released, and the price experiences a periodic rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [3] Group 3 - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, closing higher at the end of the session. The spot market is generally weak and stable, and the auction failure rate in the market has steadily decreased. After two rounds of price cuts, the coke price has temporarily stabilized [3] - From a fundamental perspective, coal mines continue to reduce production, and downstream replenishment has gradually started. Last week, the inventory accumulation rate at the mine end slowed down, and sales improved after some coal mines reduced prices. However, due to the still negative market sentiment, coal prices are under pressure, and the market needs to wait for the concentrated release of downstream replenishment demand to stop falling and stabilize [3] - The import of coking coal remains at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal was 188,000 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 84,000 tons year-on-year. In addition, the overall arrival volume of seaborne coal remains high at 9.4941 million tons [3] - In terms of demand, the pressure of the seasonal off - season will become more apparent. The profitability rate of steel mills is about 35%. The blast furnace hot metal output is still in a slow decline trend, dropping to 2.292 million tons last week, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 32,700 tons year - on - year, which continuously suppresses the rigid demand for raw materials [3] - Recently, attention should be paid to the changes in the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills after the decline in coal and coke prices [3]

逻辑：本周在市场氛围本就偏弱的情况下，蒙煤策克口岸压力测试超 预期完成，加剧了市场偏悲观情绪，煤焦期价重心再度下移。现货市场总 体偏弱，进口蒙煤价格领跌，国内煤价跟跌；钢厂对焦炭价格完成首轮调 降，仍存提降预期。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤高通关预期强化 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 从基本面来看，预计焦煤供应维持相对稳定格局。国内焦煤矿生产受 保供的提振作用相对有限，在下游需求进入淡季的阶段下，焦煤产量难有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market in Shanxi is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance in Q4 2023, with prices rising due to limited supply and strong demand, despite some pressure on coke producers from rising raw material costs [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The coal and coke market has shown a "V" shaped recovery since 2025, with a significant rebound in the second half of the year after a period of oversupply and price declines [3]. - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines in Shanxi was 84.53%, down 6.16% year-on-year, indicating reduced production capacity [6]. - Coking coal prices have reached new highs, with Anze low-sulfur coking coal increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 1710 CNY/ton, a total increase of 170 CNY/ton since October [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand remains strong, with coal mines reporting full orders and low inventory levels, leading to expectations of stable or rising prices until the end of the year [6][9]. - Trade merchants are actively replenishing inventory, anticipating that coal prices will not decline significantly before year-end [3][9]. - Despite the strong demand, some high-sulfur coking coal prices have seen slight declines due to rapid price increases leading to weakened purchasing demand [6]. Group 3: Challenges for Coking Enterprises - Coking enterprises are facing profit pressures due to the rising costs of raw materials, with coking coal prices increasing significantly while coke price increases lag behind [7][8]. - The price of low-sulfur coking coal has risen from 1144 CNY/ton to 1688 CNY/ton since mid-June, while the price of coke has only increased from 990 CNY/ton to 1440 CNY/ton, indicating a disparity in profit margins [7]. - Some coking enterprises are considering reducing supply to clients who do not accept price increases, as they face challenges in maintaining profitability [4][16]. Group 4: Inventory and Trading Strategies - Current inventory levels are low, with many traders indicating that they will wait for a price correction of 50-100 CNY/ton before increasing purchases [9][19]. - A significant portion of the market is cautious about replenishing inventory due to the rapid rise in coal prices, with many traders preferring to wait for a market pullback [9][19]. - The futures market has shown a divergence from the spot market, with concerns about the quality and pricing of delivery affecting trader confidence [10]. Group 5: Company Insights - Company A, a leading coking coal producer, reports strong sales with no inventory pressure, but production capacity is limited due to aging mines [12][13]. - Company B, a major coking enterprise, is facing profit challenges due to high raw material costs and plans to adjust its purchasing strategy based on coal price movements [15][16]. - Company C, a local coal producer, has a strong order book and expects continued demand through year-end, with prices remaining high [17].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly rebounded; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price is still running within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to the Directory - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, and there was a sharp decline at night. The decline of the near - month coking coal contract exceeded 3.5%, and it traded at a discount to the spot, with the weak delivery logic dragging down the near - month price. The coking coal spot market stabilized, and coke completed the fourth round of price increase [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side**: Last week, coal mine production in many parts of Shanxi recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Although most coal mines have little inventory pressure, the raw coal inventory of coal mines has stopped falling and started to rise, and it will be a bit difficult for coal prices to rise later. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, an increase of 1.9 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.3 tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to November 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 tons, a decrease of 2.07 tons compared with the previous week, but still at a relatively high level overall, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side**: The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. Recently, the phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area was lifted, which promoted the recovery of hot metal production. The daily average hot metal production last week recovered to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week. Later, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and the changes in the production rhythm of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the thread steel and hot-rolled coil sector, the supply-demand situation shows that the apparent demand for thread steel decreased last week, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot-rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. As steel mill profit margins have dropped sharply and the peak consumption period has passed, mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have weakened, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, on the daily K-line chart, both thread steel and hot-rolled coil have risen rapidly in the short term, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and while prices may stabilize, the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Regarding the iron ore sector, last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to follow the seasonal trend and decline, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Steel and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel's apparent demand, production, and inventory decreased last week. Hot-rolled coil inventory decreased but was still above historical levels. Steel mill profit margins dropped, and production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, short-term rapid price increases face resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [2]. - **Data**: Includes various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, production, inventory, and demand data [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to decline, putting pressure on raw material prices [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [5]. - **Data**: Covers various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, shipment volumes, freight rates, exchange rates, arrival and departure volumes, and inventory data [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From November 10 - 16, 2025, China's 47-port iron ore arrivals totaled 2369.9 million tons, a decrease of 399.4 million tons from the previous period; 45-port arrivals totaled 2268.9 million tons, a decrease of 472.3 million tons; and northern six-port arrivals totaled 1041.3 million tons, a decrease of 484.5 million tons [7]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3516.4 million tons, an increase of 447.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2908.7 million tons, an increase of 360.1 million tons [8]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown. It has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and mainly produces low-sulfur coking coal. It is currently in the commissioning phase and is expected to resume production this week [8]. - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate increased. The total listed volume was 1.445 million tons, the成交 volume was 1.039 million tons, and the failure rate was 28.1%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points from the previous period. Auction prices mostly rose, and the daily price fluctuation range increased significantly [8]. - Coking enterprise operating rates continued to decline. The actual production in this period was 3.1782 million tons, a decrease of 0.0015 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the operating rate was 67.49%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period; inventory decreased to 0.3465 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous period [8]. - The UK is formulating countermeasures as Prime Minister Starmer fails to reach an agreement to mitigate the impact of the EU's proposed steel tariff increase. The EU plans to cut the existing foreign steel tariff-free quota by nearly half and double the tariff on excess quotas to 50% [9].