晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 5 日 逻辑：元旦节前一周，煤焦期货价格先抑后扬，整体维持震荡走势。 现货方面，上周钢厂完成对焦价的第 4 轮调降，自 11 月底至此焦价累计 下跌 200-220 元/吨。焦企利润被持续压缩，个别地区焦企有提涨计划。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：矿端保持增库 价格承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何 ...

煤焦：铁水产量止降 盘面震荡运行 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 海关总署数据显示，近几月我国炼焦煤进口总体保持偏高水平。11 月进口 1073.15 万吨，环比增加 1.31%，同比下降 12.72%；1-11 月累计 进口 1.05 亿吨，同比减少 668.7 万吨，降幅 5.99%。其中 11 月份进口蒙 焦煤 624.41 万吨，环比增加 16.38%，同比增加 19.65%。高频数据显示， 12 月蒙煤通关继续保持高位，口岸监管区增库为主。另外根据中蒙两国 双边协定，12 月 29 日（下周一）蒙古民族解放和独立日三大口岸闭关一 天，12 月 30 日恢复通关；1 月 1 日（下周四）元旦三大口岸闭关一天，1 月 2 日恢复通关。 观点：近期市场情绪稍有回暖，价格迎阶段性反弹，但基本面表现仍 偏弱 ...

成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 17 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：基本面表现仍弱 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格先抑后扬，尾盘收涨。现货市场总体弱稳， 市场竞拍流拍率稳步下降；焦炭价格完成 2 轮调降后暂稳。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，煤矿持续减产以及下游补库逐步启动，上周矿端累库 速度放缓，部分煤矿降价之后销售好转。但由于市场情绪依旧消极，煤价 承压，行情止跌企稳仍需等待下游补库需求集中释放。焦煤进口端仍处高 位，继续对国内煤价形成压制，其中 ...

逻辑：本周在市场氛围本就偏弱的情况下，蒙煤策克口岸压力测试超 预期完成，加剧了市场偏悲观情绪，煤焦期价重心再度下移。现货市场总 体偏弱，进口蒙煤价格领跌，国内煤价跟跌；钢厂对焦炭价格完成首轮调 降，仍存提降预期。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤高通关预期强化 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 从基本面来看，预计焦煤供应维持相对稳定格局。国内焦煤矿生产受 保供的提振作用相对有限，在下游需求进入淡季的阶段下，焦煤产量难有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market in Shanxi is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance in Q4 2023, with prices rising due to limited supply and strong demand, despite some pressure on coke producers from rising raw material costs [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The coal and coke market has shown a "V" shaped recovery since 2025, with a significant rebound in the second half of the year after a period of oversupply and price declines [3]. - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines in Shanxi was 84.53%, down 6.16% year-on-year, indicating reduced production capacity [6]. - Coking coal prices have reached new highs, with Anze low-sulfur coking coal increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 1710 CNY/ton, a total increase of 170 CNY/ton since October [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Downstream demand remains strong, with coal mines reporting full orders and low inventory levels, leading to expectations of stable or rising prices until the end of the year [6][9]. - Trade merchants are actively replenishing inventory, anticipating that coal prices will not decline significantly before year-end [3][9]. - Despite the strong demand, some high-sulfur coking coal prices have seen slight declines due to rapid price increases leading to weakened purchasing demand [6]. Group 3: Challenges for Coking Enterprises - Coking enterprises are facing profit pressures due to the rising costs of raw materials, with coking coal prices increasing significantly while coke price increases lag behind [7][8]. - The price of low-sulfur coking coal has risen from 1144 CNY/ton to 1688 CNY/ton since mid-June, while the price of coke has only increased from 990 CNY/ton to 1440 CNY/ton, indicating a disparity in profit margins [7]. - Some coking enterprises are considering reducing supply to clients who do not accept price increases, as they face challenges in maintaining profitability [4][16]. Group 4: Inventory and Trading Strategies - Current inventory levels are low, with many traders indicating that they will wait for a price correction of 50-100 CNY/ton before increasing purchases [9][19]. - A significant portion of the market is cautious about replenishing inventory due to the rapid rise in coal prices, with many traders preferring to wait for a market pullback [9][19]. - The futures market has shown a divergence from the spot market, with concerns about the quality and pricing of delivery affecting trader confidence [10]. Group 5: Company Insights - Company A, a leading coking coal producer, reports strong sales with no inventory pressure, but production capacity is limited due to aging mines [12][13]. - Company B, a major coking enterprise, is facing profit challenges due to high raw material costs and plans to adjust its purchasing strategy based on coal price movements [15][16]. - Company C, a local coal producer, has a strong order book and expects continued demand through year-end, with prices remaining high [17].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly rebounded; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price is still running within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to the Directory - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, and there was a sharp decline at night. The decline of the near - month coking coal contract exceeded 3.5%, and it traded at a discount to the spot, with the weak delivery logic dragging down the near - month price. The coking coal spot market stabilized, and coke completed the fourth round of price increase [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side**: Last week, coal mine production in many parts of Shanxi recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Although most coal mines have little inventory pressure, the raw coal inventory of coal mines has stopped falling and started to rise, and it will be a bit difficult for coal prices to rise later. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, an increase of 1.9 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.3 tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to November 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 tons, a decrease of 2.07 tons compared with the previous week, but still at a relatively high level overall, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side**: The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. Recently, the phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area was lifted, which promoted the recovery of hot metal production. The daily average hot metal production last week recovered to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week. Later, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and the changes in the production rhythm of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the thread steel and hot-rolled coil sector, the supply-demand situation shows that the apparent demand for thread steel decreased last week, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot-rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. As steel mill profit margins have dropped sharply and the peak consumption period has passed, mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have weakened, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, on the daily K-line chart, both thread steel and hot-rolled coil have risen rapidly in the short term, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and while prices may stabilize, the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Regarding the iron ore sector, last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to follow the seasonal trend and decline, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Steel and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel's apparent demand, production, and inventory decreased last week. Hot-rolled coil inventory decreased but was still above historical levels. Steel mill profit margins dropped, and production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, short-term rapid price increases face resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [2]. - **Data**: Includes various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, production, inventory, and demand data [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to decline, putting pressure on raw material prices [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [5]. - **Data**: Covers various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, shipment volumes, freight rates, exchange rates, arrival and departure volumes, and inventory data [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From November 10 - 16, 2025, China's 47-port iron ore arrivals totaled 2369.9 million tons, a decrease of 399.4 million tons from the previous period; 45-port arrivals totaled 2268.9 million tons, a decrease of 472.3 million tons; and northern six-port arrivals totaled 1041.3 million tons, a decrease of 484.5 million tons [7]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3516.4 million tons, an increase of 447.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2908.7 million tons, an increase of 360.1 million tons [8]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown. It has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and mainly produces low-sulfur coking coal. It is currently in the commissioning phase and is expected to resume production this week [8]. - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate increased. The total listed volume was 1.445 million tons, the成交 volume was 1.039 million tons, and the failure rate was 28.1%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points from the previous period. Auction prices mostly rose, and the daily price fluctuation range increased significantly [8]. - Coking enterprise operating rates continued to decline. The actual production in this period was 3.1782 million tons, a decrease of 0.0015 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the operating rate was 67.49%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period; inventory decreased to 0.3465 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous period [8]. - The UK is formulating countermeasures as Prime Minister Starmer fails to reach an agreement to mitigate the impact of the EU's proposed steel tariff increase. The EU plans to cut the existing foreign steel tariff-free quota by nearly half and double the tariff on excess quotas to 50% [9].

Report Title - Coal and Coke: Increase in Mongolian Coal Clearance, Prices Fluctuate [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, the domestic coal mine output has not recovered, which supports the market's confidence in price support; the demand is in a slow decline trend, and attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price should focus on the previous high pressure [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated, and weakened at night. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Domestic coal prices rose again, the third round of coke price increases was gradually implemented, and some coke enterprises in certain regions started the fourth round of price increases [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output declined significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 2 thousand tons compared with the previous week and 4.6 thousand tons compared with the same period last year [3] - **Import**: From November 3rd to 8th, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 195.2 thousand tons, an increase of 30.9 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] - **Demand Side**: The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The daily average pig iron output dropped to 234.22 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.14 thousand tons compared with the previous week. The recent decrease in pig iron output was affected by the significant narrowing of profits and the environmental protection production - restriction policy in the Tangshan area [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production of coal mines [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, which supports the market's confidence in holding prices; the demand is in a slow decline trend, generally still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is temporarily not large. The coking coal price should focus on the pressure at the 1320 yuan/ton level [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded in a volatile manner, and the night - session continued the rebound trend, performing stronger than steel and ore. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, domestic coal prices rose again, and the third round of price increases for coke was gradually implemented [3] Policy Changes - The Dalian Commodity Exchange recently issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard. The overall content change is not significant, mainly adjusting the premium and discount ranges of the reaction strength and sulfur content after coking coal is made into coke. The new delivery quality standard does not affect the current existing contracts [3] Fundamental Situation - This week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output declined significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons compared with the previous week and 4.6 million tons year - on - year. The decline in output stimulated the market's bullish sentiment [4] Demand Side - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, from past experience, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills for the time being. Later, attention should be paid to changes in profitability and production - cut actions of steel mills [4] Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production of coal mines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The steel industry lacks upward drivers, with near - term contracts converging towards weak spot prices. The eighth round of price hikes for coking coal and coke has been put on hold, and there are rumors of price cuts. For iron ore, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment cycle at high hot metal production levels provides price support [3][5][63][113] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron ore production is stable around 240wt, with potential short - term declines due to the parade. Scrap steel consumption is at a high level year - on - year, and steel inventories are accumulating seasonally. Policy - related production cuts may have limited impact on total output [5] - **Demand**: Weekly production and sales data show a slight recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious. Some spot goods from previous basis trading are flowing back into the market. Export policies may face new tightening [5] - **Inventory**: Total inventory is at a low level, but the current high production may increase future inventory pressure. The rebar inventory has exceeded last year's level [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has recovered. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 120, up about 19 from the previous week [5] - **Profit**: Long - process steel mills still have profits, but they have been significantly compressed compared to early August. Electric furnace profits have also been compressed [5] - **Valuation**: Industry profits are compressed, and the futures price has returned to a neutral valuation range [5] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an increased expectation of a US interest rate cut in September, and China is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the impact of the parade on production [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Monitor the impact of the parade on production and market sentiment, and watch for potential mismatches during the peak seasons [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, stop losses on short - term long positions and wait and see. For arbitrage, there are no recommendations. For basis trading, take rolling profits on positive basis positions [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Steel inventory accumulation is faster than the seasonal norm. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the profitability rate of steel mills has declined [63] - **Coking Coal Supply**: There are more production cuts in domestic coal mines, Mongolian coal imports remain at a relatively high level, and overseas coal prices are falling [63] - **Coke Supply**: Environmental protection has led to a significant short - term reduction in coke production, but coking profits remain high [63] - **Inventory**: Downstream procurement has slowed down, and upstream production is still restricted before the parade. Overall, there is no obvious oversupply [63] - **Basis/Spread**: After the seventh round of coke price hikes, the warehouse receipt cost is 1645, and the port trade warehouse receipt cost is 1629. The coking coal warehouse receipt cost in Shanxi is around 1130, and that of Mongolian coal is around 1070, with near - term contracts almost at par [63] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills has slightly decreased, while coking profits have increased [63] - **Summary**: Maintain a view of weakening oscillations. Pay attention to the steel inventory situation and wait for the first round of coke price cut news before evaluating long - position layouts [63] - **Trading Strategy**: Actively sell spot goods and adopt a high - short strategy in the futures market. For arbitrage, wait and see [63] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The average daily shipment has slightly increased, mainly due to the recovery of Brazilian and non - mainstream ore shipments. The arrival volume has slightly decreased, and the future arrival volume is expected to continue to decline [114] - **Demand**: Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profitability rate has declined. Iron ore inventory will transfer from ports to steel mills in September. Steel demand shows a slight recovery, mainly from building materials [114] - **Inventory**: Steel mills will continue to replenish inventory, and it is difficult for inventory to accumulate significantly at high hot metal production levels [114] - **Profit**: Steel mills' profits are still high, and hot metal production can remain at a high level in the short term [114] - **Valuation**: The valuation is relatively neutral at high hot metal production levels [114] - **Summary**: The black sector is oscillating. In September, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment will support iron ore prices. Pay attention to the impact of the SCO meeting and the parade on hot metal production [114] - **Investment View**: Bullish [114] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [115]