广发期货研究 . 推送广发期货研究所的最新报告和观点 以下文章来源于广发期货研究 ，作者研究所 文 | 周敏波 来源 | 广发期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 11月11-14日走访了山西太原、介休等地了解山西煤焦市场情况。 2025年以来，煤焦市场走出深"V"的先抑后扬行情，上半年由于煤矿超产严重，供需平衡偏宽松，但随 着价格下跌、煤矿亏损减产以及"反内卷"政策驱动，下半年走出触底反弹行情，供需向平衡偏紧转变。 临近年底，我们赴山西调研部分具有代表性煤焦企业，了解现货市场实际情况，发现后市机会。 四季度山西煤焦市场呈现"供需偏紧、供给受限、需求良好"的核心特征，竞拍价格持续上涨，大多煤种 已经达到年内最高水平。经历上半年大幅去库后，产业各环节库存处于相对低位，煤矿大多预售订单为 主 ， 库 存 压 力 不 大 ， 供 给 受 到 安 监 、 环 保 、 产 量 核 查 等 因 素 影 响 受 限 ； 下 游 补 库 需 旺 盛 ， 由 于 预 期 扭 转，下半年以来，贸易商补库积极，实体企业也加大采购，认为年底之前煤价难跌。但由于焦煤2601合 约市场参与者套保和交割量较大，可能压制期货盘面 ...

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面承压运行 关注需求变化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡季压力向原材料端的传导。焦煤价格尚在 1100-1300 元/吨 区间内运行。 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 18 日 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比前一周增加 1.9 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月18日08时15分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷短线快速上涨，上方面临 60 日均线和布林带上轨的压 制，布林带开口收窄，期价有可能企稳，但中线下行趋势仍没有改变。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待回调后做多，中线交易。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3097 | 44 | 1.44% | 53 | 1.74% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 ...

Report Title - Coal and Coke: Increase in Mongolian Coal Clearance, Prices Fluctuate [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, the domestic coal mine output has not recovered, which supports the market's confidence in price support; the demand is in a slow decline trend, and attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price should focus on the previous high pressure [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated, and weakened at night. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Domestic coal prices rose again, the third round of coke price increases was gradually implemented, and some coke enterprises in certain regions started the fourth round of price increases [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output declined significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 2 thousand tons compared with the previous week and 4.6 thousand tons compared with the same period last year [3] - **Import**: From November 3rd to 8th, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 195.2 thousand tons, an increase of 30.9 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] - **Demand Side**: The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The daily average pig iron output dropped to 234.22 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.14 thousand tons compared with the previous week. The recent decrease in pig iron output was affected by the significant narrowing of profits and the environmental protection production - restriction policy in the Tangshan area [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production of coal mines [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, which supports the market's confidence in holding prices; the demand is in a slow decline trend, generally still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is temporarily not large. The coking coal price should focus on the pressure at the 1320 yuan/ton level [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded in a volatile manner, and the night - session continued the rebound trend, performing stronger than steel and ore. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, domestic coal prices rose again, and the third round of price increases for coke was gradually implemented [3] Policy Changes - The Dalian Commodity Exchange recently issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard. The overall content change is not significant, mainly adjusting the premium and discount ranges of the reaction strength and sulfur content after coking coal is made into coke. The new delivery quality standard does not affect the current existing contracts [3] Fundamental Situation - This week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output declined significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons compared with the previous week and 4.6 million tons year - on - year. The decline in output stimulated the market's bullish sentiment [4] Demand Side - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, from past experience, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills for the time being. Later, attention should be paid to changes in profitability and production - cut actions of steel mills [4] Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production of coal mines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The steel industry lacks upward drivers, with near - term contracts converging towards weak spot prices. The eighth round of price hikes for coking coal and coke has been put on hold, and there are rumors of price cuts. For iron ore, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment cycle at high hot metal production levels provides price support [3][5][63][113] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron ore production is stable around 240wt, with potential short - term declines due to the parade. Scrap steel consumption is at a high level year - on - year, and steel inventories are accumulating seasonally. Policy - related production cuts may have limited impact on total output [5] - **Demand**: Weekly production and sales data show a slight recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious. Some spot goods from previous basis trading are flowing back into the market. Export policies may face new tightening [5] - **Inventory**: Total inventory is at a low level, but the current high production may increase future inventory pressure. The rebar inventory has exceeded last year's level [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has recovered. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 120, up about 19 from the previous week [5] - **Profit**: Long - process steel mills still have profits, but they have been significantly compressed compared to early August. Electric furnace profits have also been compressed [5] - **Valuation**: Industry profits are compressed, and the futures price has returned to a neutral valuation range [5] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an increased expectation of a US interest rate cut in September, and China is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the impact of the parade on production [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Monitor the impact of the parade on production and market sentiment, and watch for potential mismatches during the peak seasons [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, stop losses on short - term long positions and wait and see. For arbitrage, there are no recommendations. For basis trading, take rolling profits on positive basis positions [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Steel inventory accumulation is faster than the seasonal norm. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the profitability rate of steel mills has declined [63] - **Coking Coal Supply**: There are more production cuts in domestic coal mines, Mongolian coal imports remain at a relatively high level, and overseas coal prices are falling [63] - **Coke Supply**: Environmental protection has led to a significant short - term reduction in coke production, but coking profits remain high [63] - **Inventory**: Downstream procurement has slowed down, and upstream production is still restricted before the parade. Overall, there is no obvious oversupply [63] - **Basis/Spread**: After the seventh round of coke price hikes, the warehouse receipt cost is 1645, and the port trade warehouse receipt cost is 1629. The coking coal warehouse receipt cost in Shanxi is around 1130, and that of Mongolian coal is around 1070, with near - term contracts almost at par [63] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills has slightly decreased, while coking profits have increased [63] - **Summary**: Maintain a view of weakening oscillations. Pay attention to the steel inventory situation and wait for the first round of coke price cut news before evaluating long - position layouts [63] - **Trading Strategy**: Actively sell spot goods and adopt a high - short strategy in the futures market. For arbitrage, wait and see [63] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The average daily shipment has slightly increased, mainly due to the recovery of Brazilian and non - mainstream ore shipments. The arrival volume has slightly decreased, and the future arrival volume is expected to continue to decline [114] - **Demand**: Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profitability rate has declined. Iron ore inventory will transfer from ports to steel mills in September. Steel demand shows a slight recovery, mainly from building materials [114] - **Inventory**: Steel mills will continue to replenish inventory, and it is difficult for inventory to accumulate significantly at high hot metal production levels [114] - **Profit**: Steel mills' profits are still high, and hot metal production can remain at a high level in the short term [114] - **Valuation**: The valuation is relatively neutral at high hot metal production levels [114] - **Summary**: The black sector is oscillating. In September, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment will support iron ore prices. Pay attention to the impact of the SCO meeting and the parade on hot metal production [114] - **Investment View**: Bullish [114] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [115]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has improved, and coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed of upstream coal mines has slowed down. In the short term, coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - Yesterday, the overall price of coking coal and coke continued the upward trend of fluctuations. Currently, the coking coal 09 contract has rebounded 12% from the bottom, and coke has rebounded 7%. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price - cut dynamic for the time being [2]. - Recently, affected by safety factors, some coal mines in Changzhi area have received notices to stop production for self - inspection. The shutdown period is about 3 days. Coal mines in Qinyuan area have received shutdown notices, involving a verified production capacity of 22.3 million tons. According to the latest research, it affects the daily output of raw coal by 82,200 tons, and the affected coal types are lean coal and lean primary coking coal. In the short term, the supply has tightened, but the long - term impact is limited [2]. Inventory Data - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high [2]. Downstream Conditions - Downstream steel mills' start - up is relatively stable, and the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [2]. Import Data - According to customs data, in May, China imported 738,690 tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 4.37139 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8056 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. The decrease in imports is mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 2.00486 billion tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0025 million tons, a decline of 16.6%. In addition, affected by high tariffs, the import of US coal was zero in May [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term market sentiment has warmed up, and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at high levels, inventory pressure remains high, and price rebounds are still weak [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Logic**: Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, with a slight decline in the night session, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, after the third round of price cuts for coke in the production areas, the prices temporarily stabilized, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound. This week, some coal mines in Shanxi that were shut down due to safety reasons gradually resumed production, and production increased. The decline in spot coal prices narrowed this week, market transactions improved, and low - price resources got better, but coal mine inventories continued to increase. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed recently, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines, and the fundamentals still lack the driving force for coal price rebounds [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will remain weak in the short term. Coking coal prices are likely to be weak, while coke is expected to run weakly and stably [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in production areas have halted operations, leading to a slight tightening of overall supply. Downstream procurement is cautious, with more declines than increases in online transaction prices. After previous price drops, the decline has significantly narrowed, and the probability of further sharp drops is low. In the short term, coal prices will run weakly and stably [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 150.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main coking coal position is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: After three consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, coking enterprise profits have slightly shrunk, and they mainly consume inventory, reducing the demand for raw coal. Coupled with the off - season in the finished product market and the decline in hot metal production, the rigid demand for the coking coal market is under pressure. It is expected that coking coal prices will be weak in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: An increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After three rounds of coke price cuts, the profitability of coking enterprises has declined. Some coking enterprises have actively reduced production due to losses and inventory pressure. However, the market is观望, steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is generally low, and some coking enterprises still have inventory accumulation. They mainly focus on active sales [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1320, with a basis of - 45.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons. The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main coke position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Recently, due to stricter environmental inspections, the operating rate of coking enterprises has been restricted. However, considering the traditional off - season in the steel market, the terminal demand expectation remains weak, and steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is still cautious. Some steel mills continue to adopt a strategy of controlled procurement, and the overall market supply is still abundant. It is expected that coke will continue to run weakly and stably in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: An increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Price - **Coking Coal**: On June 17th (17:30), the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and regions are provided, with prices ranging from 668 to 1250 [9]. - **Coke**: On June 17th (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from different ports and origins have declined, with a decrease of 10 for some prices [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. Other Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view is that the short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling, but fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coal and coke have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large, so prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 - Yesterday, affected by the news of coal mine production cuts in the production areas, the overall price of coal and coke continued a slight rebound trend. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area has been stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period; coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - According to Mysteel research, due to environmental protection factors, inspections in multiple areas of Linfen have become stricter. Some pit coal washing plants in Pu County have stopped production, involving a pit coal washing capacity of 8.7 million tons, and the resumption time is uncertain. Some coal mines also have production - stop plans, and the number of passively or actively shut - down coal mines in the region may increase in the short term, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of coking coal in Linfen [2] - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons with a slightly slower growth rate; the raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production - cut behavior of coal mines, and the driving force for coal price rebound in terms of fundamentals is still insufficient [2]