【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-09-01 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 产 业 无 向 上 驱 动 ， 近 月 待 交 割 合 约 向 弱 现 货 回 归 第 八 轮 提 涨 暂 时 搁 浅 ， 市 场 传 出 提 降 风 声 02 焦煤焦炭 薛夏泽 03 铁矿石 高 铁 水 下 的 节 前 补 库 周 期 为 价 格 提 供 支 撑 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 钢材 螺纹周产量：短流程 螺纹表需 热卷表需 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 08/28 10/27 12/26 2 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has improved, and coal prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed of upstream coal mines has slowed down. In the short term, coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - Yesterday, the overall price of coking coal and coke continued the upward trend of fluctuations. Currently, the coking coal 09 contract has rebounded 12% from the bottom, and coke has rebounded 7%. On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, and there is no further price - cut dynamic for the time being [2]. - Recently, affected by safety factors, some coal mines in Changzhi area have received notices to stop production for self - inspection. The shutdown period is about 3 days. Coal mines in Qinyuan area have received shutdown notices, involving a verified production capacity of 22.3 million tons. According to the latest research, it affects the daily output of raw coal by 82,200 tons, and the affected coal types are lean coal and lean primary coking coal. In the short term, the supply has tightened, but the long - term impact is limited [2]. Inventory Data - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high [2]. Downstream Conditions - Downstream steel mills' start - up is relatively stable, and the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [2]. Import Data - According to customs data, in May, China imported 738,690 tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 4.37139 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8056 million tons, a decline of 8.01%. The decrease in imports is mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 2.00486 billion tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0025 million tons, a decline of 16.6%. In addition, affected by high tariffs, the import of US coal was zero in May [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term market sentiment has warmed up, and coal prices have stopped falling. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at high levels, inventory pressure remains high, and price rebounds are still weak [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Logic**: Yesterday, coal and coke prices oscillated overall, with a slight decline in the night session, and the upward momentum was still insufficient. On the spot side, after the third round of price cuts for coke in the production areas, the prices temporarily stabilized, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. Coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound. This week, some coal mines in Shanxi that were shut down due to safety reasons gradually resumed production, and production increased. The decline in spot coal prices narrowed this week, market transactions improved, and low - price resources got better, but coal mine inventories continued to increase. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed recently, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines, and the fundamentals still lack the driving force for coal price rebounds [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will remain weak in the short term. Coking coal prices are likely to be weak, while coke is expected to run weakly and stably [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in production areas have halted operations, leading to a slight tightening of overall supply. Downstream procurement is cautious, with more declines than increases in online transaction prices. After previous price drops, the decline has significantly narrowed, and the probability of further sharp drops is low. In the short term, coal prices will run weakly and stably [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 150.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main coking coal position is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: After three consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, coking enterprise profits have slightly shrunk, and they mainly consume inventory, reducing the demand for raw coal. Coupled with the off - season in the finished product market and the decline in hot metal production, the rigid demand for the coking coal market is under pressure. It is expected that coking coal prices will be weak in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: An increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After three rounds of coke price cuts, the profitability of coking enterprises has declined. Some coking enterprises have actively reduced production due to losses and inventory pressure. However, the market is观望, steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is generally low, and some coking enterprises still have inventory accumulation. They mainly focus on active sales [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1320, with a basis of - 45.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons. The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main coke position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Recently, due to stricter environmental inspections, the operating rate of coking enterprises has been restricted. However, considering the traditional off - season in the steel market, the terminal demand expectation remains weak, and steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is still cautious. Some steel mills continue to adopt a strategy of controlled procurement, and the overall market supply is still abundant. It is expected that coke will continue to run weakly and stably in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: An increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Price - **Coking Coal**: On June 17th (17:30), the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and regions are provided, with prices ranging from 668 to 1250 [9]. - **Coke**: On June 17th (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of quasi - first - grade and first - grade metallurgical coke from different ports and origins have declined, with a decrease of 10 for some prices [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [24]. Other Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74%, unchanged from last week [35]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [39].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view is that the short - term market sentiment has warmed up and coal prices have stopped falling, but fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coal and coke have declined slightly at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large, so prices should be treated with caution [3] Group 3 - Yesterday, affected by the news of coal mine production cuts in the production areas, the overall price of coal and coke continued a slight rebound trend. On the spot side, the coke price in the production area has been stable after the third round of price cuts, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton from mid - May to now, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the later period; coking coal spot also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [2] - According to Mysteel research, due to environmental protection factors, inspections in multiple areas of Linfen have become stricter. Some pit coal washing plants in Pu County have stopped production, involving a pit coal washing capacity of 8.7 million tons, and the resumption time is uncertain. Some coal mines also have production - stop plans, and the number of passively or actively shut - down coal mines in the region may increase in the short term, resulting in a slight reduction in the supply of coking coal in Linfen [2] - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons with a slightly slower growth rate; the raw coal inventory was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5 million tons, and the inventory level was still at an absolute high. Recently, the overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in start - up, which generally offsets the recent production - cut behavior of coal mines, and the driving force for coal price rebound in terms of fundamentals is still insufficient [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has warmed up, supporting the rebound of coal prices. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. The rebound should be treated with caution [3] Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Last week, short - covering and news stimulation on the coal supply side led to a phased bottom - out rebound in coal and coke futures prices. But the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the spot market remains weak. The third round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week was officially implemented, with the decline in this round increasing to 70 - 75 yuan/ton, and the cumulative decline in the three rounds since mid - May reaching 170 - 185 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices also remained weakly stable [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Coal mine production continued a slight downward trend, but there was no large - scale production suspension or reduction. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 189.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 7.8 million tons year - on - year. Some mines in Shanxi stopped production due to safety reasons for about 15 days. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.708 billion tons, an increase of 297 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 3.357 billion tons year - on - year; the clean coal inventory was 4.807 billion tons, an increase of 77 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.04 billion tons year - on - year [2] - **Demand side**: Coal and coke demand continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate was slow. The average daily pig iron output of steel mills last week dropped to 2.418 billion tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 6.05 million tons compared with the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in start - up rates, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines. There was still insufficient driving force for the coal price rebound in terms of fundamentals [2] Outlook - Pay attention to the changes in the start - up of steel mill blast furnaces and the customs clearance of imported coal [3]