2026年这个"红马年"，可能比我们想象的更不一般。 最近，一句老话"太岁丙午年，春夏多洪水"被反复提起，很多人觉得这只是古人的玄学。 但当我翻看历史记录和最新的气候预测时，发现事情没那么简单。 上一个丙午年1966年，长江流域发生了大洪水；再上一个1906年，南方遭遇了特大洪水袭击。 根据国家气候中心等机构的研判，2024-2026年正处在拉尼娜等气候现象的活跃期，全球变暖也在持续加剧极端天气。 古人说的"火旺至极而生水"，似乎正与现代科学观测到的"极端高温后易发强对流暴雨"的规律隐隐呼应。 2026年，我们或许真得对"水"多留个心眼。 2026年是农历丙午年。 在干支纪年法中，"丙"和"午"在五行中都属火，火色为红，所以也叫"红马年"或"赤马年"。 这种"双火叠加"的年份，在古人长期的观察中，往往与异常气候挂钩。 流传下来的《地母经》里明确写着："太岁丙午年，春夏多洪水。 种植宜高地，低源遭水冲。 " 另一部《枕中记》也有几乎一样的描述："丙午水滔滔，种植最宜高。 低田遭水没，天虫口如刀。 "这些古籍不约而同地指向同一个预警：春夏季节雨水可 能格外多，低洼地区容易遭殃。 回顾历史上的丙午年，这种关联并非毫 ...

Group 1 - The recent market behavior is perplexing, with the A-shares declining despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which is typically seen as a positive signal [3][5] - The brokerage sector has experienced a significant drop of 10% in a week, contributing to the overall market downturn [3] - Historical patterns show that markets often react negatively to anticipated good news, as seen in previous instances of "preemptive rate cuts" [3][5] Group 2 - The easing of U.S.-China relations, highlighted by a positive communication between the two leaders, should theoretically boost the market, yet stock prices remain stagnant [3] - A critical observation is the concept of "stronger getting stronger" and "extreme reversal," indicating that stocks in an upward trend will continue to rise with good news, while those at their peak may face corrections regardless of positive developments [5][15] - Institutions have an advantage over retail investors due to their access to trading data that is not visible to the average trader, allowing them to make informed decisions [7][9] Group 3 - The concept of "institutional inventory" shows that while stock prices may be declining or stagnant, institutional buying activity can remain high, indicating accumulation during market pessimism [9][15] - Examples of stocks with high institutional inventory during price corrections include a leading technology company, a consumer staple, and a new energy leader, all demonstrating that institutions are strategically building positions [11][13][15] - The current A-share market is at a pivotal moment where long-term positive factors like the Fed's rate cut and improved U.S.-China relations will eventually have an impact, despite short-term market reactions [15]

Core Viewpoint - The key to capturing a "big market trend" in futures and options trading lies not only in market judgment but also in the ability to endure and maintain positions through volatility [1]. Group 1: Conditions for Capturing Big Trends - Patience is essential as big trends are rare and often characterized by extreme price movements and supply-demand mismatches [2]. - Identifying anchor points is crucial for predicting market trends, focusing on production costs and market sentiment rather than solely on technical indicators [3]. - Commitment to holding positions is vital, as many traders fail due to a lack of patience and discipline [4][5][6]. Group 2: Common Issues Faced by Traders - Many traders exit positions too early, fearing profit loss, which can lead to missed opportunities [4]. - A lack of personal standards and reliance on others' opinions can prevent traders from capitalizing on favorable market conditions [5]. - Focusing only on short-term trends without considering longer cycles can result in premature exits from positions [6]. Group 3: Trading Philosophy - Trading requires discipline and the ability to withstand emotional fluctuations, especially during periods of profit [7]. - The market is filled with opportunities, but success depends on the ability to wait, endure, and persist [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between wealth, skills, and cognitive ability, emphasizing that for most ordinary people, the primary way to earn money is through selling their skills and time rather than relying solely on cognitive enhancement [8][12][24] - It highlights the societal stratification in terms of income generation, where the lowest tier sells pure time, the middle tier sells skills along with time, and the top tier engages in high-risk, high-reward activities [2][3][4] - The article suggests that many individuals mistakenly believe that enhancing their cognitive abilities will directly lead to wealth, while in reality, practical skills and the ability to sell are more crucial [17][24][25] Group 2 - The text points out that a significant number of people with high cognitive abilities still struggle financially due to a lack of practical skills or luck, indicating that cognitive enhancement alone is insufficient for financial success [12][26] - It mentions that many wealthy individuals often rely on marketing and risk-taking rather than deep knowledge, suggesting that practical experience and the ability to sell are more valuable in the marketplace [18][24] - The article concludes that for ordinary people, the best approach to achieving success is through passion and repetition, which can lead to skill improvement and increased opportunities [29][31]