Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in the number of market pigs sold, but faced losses in Q3 due to low pig prices [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 563.9 million yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.7 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.57% in revenue but a decrease of 58.69% in net profit [1][3]. - The average selling price of market pigs showed a declining trend from July to September, impacting the company's profitability [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 192.2 million yuan and a net loss of 7.4 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +11.57% in revenue and -124.32% in net profit [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.44%, down 7.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 was 4.11%, down 22.26 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Production and Sales - The company sold 2.931 million market pigs in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.64%, and 1.025 million in Q3, up 45.98% year-on-year [2]. - The company aims to achieve an annual market pig output of around 4 million heads, in line with its initial targets [2]. Cost and Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.45%, down 2.71 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control despite the revenue growth [3]. - The decline in various expense ratios was attributed to the increase in revenue, which diluted the overall expense burden [3]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 121 million yuan, 604 million yuan, and 896 million yuan, respectively, with a significant expected recovery in 2026 and 2027 [3][5]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in pig output and has strong cost control capabilities, positioning it well for medium to long-term growth [3].

Core Insights - The significant decline in live pig futures prices reflects market expectations regarding the pork industry [1] - The future trend of pig prices remains uncertain, influenced by various market factors [1] - The impact of African swine fever on the industry is currently minimal, suggesting resilience in the market [1] Group 1 - The sharp drop in live pig futures indicates a bearish sentiment among investors [1] - Market expectations are shaped by supply and demand dynamics, as well as external factors affecting the pork industry [1] - The resilience of the industry against African swine fever suggests that current biosecurity measures are effective [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 3.717 billion yuan and net profit of 181 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 66.49% and 504.12% respectively [1][5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a decline in net profit due to low pig prices, with revenue of 2.072 billion yuan and net profit of 52 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 61.34% but a decline of 44.66% in net profit [1][5] - The company achieved a substantial increase in pig output, with 1.907 million pigs sold in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 75.02%, and 1.077 million pigs in the second quarter, up 85.12% [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's pig farming business generated revenue of 3.432 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 68.32% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.38%, an increase of 2.00 percentage points [2] - The average selling price of pigs in the first half of 2025 was 14.49 yuan per kilogram, with a decline to 14.12 yuan in the second quarter due to market conditions [2] Cost Management - The company effectively reduced breeding costs, contributing to the improvement in gross margin [2] - The feed business also saw revenue growth of 15.96% year-on-year, reaching 179 million yuan, although the gross margin decreased by 2.27 percentage points [2] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 569 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 9.8%, 52.3%, and 28.8% for the years 2025 to 2027 [3] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18.9, 12.4, and 9.7 respectively [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates a significant year-on-year increase in the hog output of listed pig companies in July 2025, but a seasonal demand weakness and policy adjustments have led to a month-on-month decline. Despite the growth in output, the drop in hog prices has negatively impacted revenue, resulting in an overall industry revenue decline of 6.64% month-on-month [1][2]. Group 1: Output and Performance - The hog output of listed pig companies in July 2025 reached 15.5382 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.36% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.59% [1]. - Among leading companies, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe reported hog outputs of 6.355 million, 3.1648 million, and 1.3025 million heads respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.02%, +36.22%, and +3.21%, while month-on-month changes were -9.46%, +5.24%, and -2.07% [1]. - The cumulative output from January to July 2025 for listed pig companies was 110 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.97% [1]. Group 2: Revenue Analysis - The operating revenue of listed pig companies in July 2025 was 24.647 billion yuan, down 9.85% year-on-year and 6.64% month-on-month [2]. - Leading companies reported July sales revenues of 11.639 billion, 4.877 billion, and 1.802 billion yuan for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.41%, -8.72%, and -24.63% [2]. - The cumulative revenue from January to July 2025 for listed pig companies was 180.473 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.77% [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - The average selling price of hogs for listed companies in July increased by 1.90% month-on-month but decreased by 22.35% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling prices for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe were 14.30, 14.58, and 14.44 yuan per kilogram respectively, with month-on-month increases of 1.56%, 1.32%, and 1.83% [3]. Group 4: Weight Metrics - The average weight of hogs sold in July was 105.7 kg per head, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.34% but a year-on-year increase of 0.53% [4]. - The average weights for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe were 128.07, 105.69, and 95.81 kg per head respectively, with month-on-month changes of -1.11%, -7.03%, and -3.43% [4].