12月29日养殖板块温和上涨。生猪方面，随着"政策端强力去化"+"市场端亏损去化"的双重叠加， 生猪供应将出现实质性收缩，猪价有望开启震荡上行通道。黄鸡方面，随着消费季节性提升，价格或已 筑底完成，且行业亏损之下供给端可能进一步收缩。蛋鸡行业受海外引种受限（禽流感、航班等问题） 的滞后影响，2026年上游祖代种鸡的缺口将逐步传导至商品代，鸡苗和毛鸡价格中枢有望抬升，龙头企 业凭借高市占率有望释放业绩弹性。 成本端，全球粮食供应相对宽松，玉米、豆粕等饲料原料价格大概率维持低位震荡，对养殖业利润 形成支撑。总体而言，经历过2024、2025年的震荡磨底及产能去化后，2026年养殖业有望迎来利润与估 值的同时修复，感兴趣的投资者可以关注养殖ETF（159865）。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人 进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固 有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及 预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector continues to rise against market pressure, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) showing strong performance and attracting significant net inflows of over 52 million yuan on the previous trading day [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 13, the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector maintained an upward trend, with the agricultural ETF (159275) rising by 0.4% [1]. - The agricultural ETF (159275) has a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.64, placing it in the 32.14% percentile over the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [1]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" measures implemented since May are expected to positively influence pig prices in the coming year, with various government bodies focusing on controlling production capacity and reducing weights [1]. - The recent policy implementations are showing initial positive effects, and with increased enforcement, a faster reduction in industry capacity is anticipated in the fourth quarter, leading to a potential rise in pig prices in the second half of next year [1]. Group 3: ETF Composition - The agricultural ETF (159275) passively tracks the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with major holdings including leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [2]. - The index has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten industries accounting for over 90% of the weight, focusing on opportunities across the entire agricultural and fishery supply chain [2].

Group 1 - The pig farming sector experienced a rise in stock prices, with the breeding ETF (516760) increasing by 1.72% and significant trading volume observed. Key stocks such as Muyuan Foods (002714) rose by 6.79%, Xiaoming Co. (300967) by 4.70%, and Shengnong Development (002299) by 3.88% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that the national average pig-to-grain price ratio fell below 6:1, prompting the government to initiate central frozen pork reserves. The China Storage Network announced a one-time pork reserve of 10,000 tons on August 25 and a rotational storage of 19,000 tons from August 26 to 29 [1] - The combination of government storage initiatives and previous factors such as outbreaks and large pig sales has led to a perception of bottoming pig prices, with expectations of a new upward trend in prices as supply decreases and consumption improves [1] Group 2 - The breeding ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock breeding sector [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the breeding ETF's tracked index is 13.71, which is below the historical average of 15.46%, indicating that the valuation is at a historical low, with sufficient safety margins [2] - The current industry outlook is at a bottom, with expectations of supply contraction and potential increases in corporate profitability and stability, suggesting that quality pig farming companies may see a revaluation [2]

Group 1 - The pig farming sector experienced a rise in stock prices, with the breeding ETF (516760) increasing by 0.72% and key stocks such as Muyuan Foods (002714) up by 3.02%, Shennong Development (002299) by 2.14%, and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) by 1.73% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that the national average pig-to-grain price ratio fell below 6:1, prompting the government to initiate central frozen pork reserve storage, with 10,000 tons to be stored on August 25 and 19,000 tons from August 26 to 29 [1] - The storage initiatives are expected to support pig prices, which are anticipated to begin a new upward trend due to previous factors such as the pandemic and large pig sales leading to overselling [1] Group 2 - The breeding ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock breeding sector [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Livestock Breeding Index is 13.71 times, which is below the historical average of 15.46%, indicating that the valuation is low compared to 84.54% of the time over the past three years [2] - The current low valuation and high safety margin in the sector suggest that investors should actively consider the breeding ETF (516760.SH) [2]

Group 1 - The pig farming sector experienced a rise in stock prices, with the breeding ETF (516760) increasing by 0.43% and key stocks like Xinghuo Technology (600866) and Muyuan Foods (002714) rising by 2.04% and 2.02% respectively [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that the national average pig-to-grain price ratio fell below 6:1, prompting the government to initiate central frozen pork reserves, with 10,000 tons to be stored on August 25 and 19,000 tons from August 26 to 29 [1] - The storage initiative is expected to boost market sentiment for pig prices, which are anticipated to rise due to previous factors such as outbreaks of disease and oversupply, leading to a reduction in supply and improved consumption at the end of the month [1] Group 2 - The breeding ETF closely tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the breeding ETF is 13.71 times, which is below the historical average of 15.46%, indicating that the valuation is low compared to 84.54% of the time over the past three years [2] - The current low valuation of the sector suggests a high margin of safety, prompting a recommendation to actively monitor the breeding ETF (516760.SH) [2]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported that the average pig-to-grain price ratio has fallen below 6:1, prompting the central government to initiate frozen pork reserve collection [2][4] - The China National Storage Network announced plans to collect 10,000 tons of pork on August 25 and 19,000 tons from August 26 to 29, which is expected to boost market sentiment and support a rebound in pork prices [2][4] - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 13.73 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 6.51 yuan/kg [1][5] Group 2 - In July 2025, China's pet food export value reached $130 million, marking a month-on-month increase of 13.35% despite a year-on-year decline of 3.85% [3] - The 27th Asia Pet Expo held from August 20-24 showcased continued domestic pet consumption growth, with significant sales reported by companies like Petty Holdings [3][4] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, reinforcing the logic of domestic brand growth [4] Group 3 - The investment logic for the pig industry is improving due to dual drivers from fundamental and policy aspects, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [4] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, supported by strong overseas demand, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [4] - The pet sector's growth is further supported by domestic consumption upgrades, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that a new round of price increases for pigs may gradually begin, with the African swine fever vaccine opening growth opportunities for the animal health sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes that the investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, with recommendations for specific companies [5][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - As of August 15, 2025, the national average price of live pigs is 13.73 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [4][13] - The price premium for 150kg fat pigs over 120kg standard pigs is 0.28 CNY/kg, indicating a tightening supply [4][13] Weekly Market Performance (August 11-15) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.84 percentage points, with the agricultural index down 0.14% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70% [6][35] - Key stocks that led the gains include COFCO Sugar (+41.04%), Shunli Biological (+13.97%), and Xiaoming Co. (+8.86%) [6][35] Price Tracking (August 11-15) - The average price of live pigs on August 15 is 13.76 CNY/kg, a slight increase from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of piglets is 28.87 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 5.03% from the previous week [6][46] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.20 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.84% [6][51] Key News (August 11-15) - The central government allocated 1.146 billion CNY for agricultural disaster relief, supporting major grain-producing provinces [6][41]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China has announced a comprehensive adjustment of pig production capacity to prevent significant fluctuations in production and prices, aiming to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - China's pig production capacity is currently at a phase of being excessively high, prompting the need for regulatory measures [1] - Short-term pig prices are under pressure due to factors such as high temperatures, concentrated market supply from individual farmers, and panic selling [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - As temperatures are expected to cool in late August, there may be a marginal improvement in demand, while supply tightens due to previous overselling of pigs, potentially leading to a higher price center for pigs [1] - The third quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a critical period for policy-driven price increases and adjustments in breeding sows, with ongoing supportive policies expected to strengthen the pig sector [4]