华福证券 2026 年度策略系列报告 于变局中开新局 摘要： 2025收官启新谋全局，"十五五"规划编制扎实推进。2025年是中国 "十四五"规划收官与"十五五"规划启动的关键之年，围绕"十五五"规 划的编制与谋篇布局，从顶层设计到领域细化、从凝聚共识到夯基定调，一 系列高规格、系统性的工作贯穿全年。 2026年"十五五"规划展望：稳中求进谋开局。2026年作为"十五五" 规划的开局之年，承担着"起好步、定基调、破难题"的核心使命，需要筑 牢未来五年攻坚根基。2025年10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》已发布，2026年关于"十五五"规划的预 计进程为1月中旬讨论草案并征求意见，2月下旬讨论拟提请全国人民代表大 会审议的草案，3月中旬经全国人民代表大会表决通过后，正式发布规划纲 要。 2026年，"十五五"规划纲要将循着草案讨论、征求意见至全国人大表 决通过的规范流程稳步落地，政策蓝图即将转化为"全面发力"的具体行 动，紧抓这一战略机遇期，紧扣转型红利与政策战略导向，以下几大重点方 向值得深度关注： 华福证券 1）现代产业体系建设，固本升级与创新育新并举。"十五五"规 ...

随着中共二十届四中全会结束、中美会谈取得阶段性成果、三季报披露完毕等利好集中落地，市场也进 入到一段时间的业绩、事件、政策真空期。但大部分券商认为，在政策基调明确、美联储降息周期开启 等多重因素的影响下，A股慢涨行情有望延续。近来沪指在4000点上下"折返跑"，多家券商认为， 11月 市场有望保持震荡蓄势的走势，为年底重要会议后发动跨年行情进行蓄势。 而在市场蓄势的阶段，短期调整将在所难免，主动权益基金净值也可能随行情波动而上下起伏。高盛与 摩根士丹利两大投行日前就预计，未来一至两年内全球股市可能面临10%至20%的回调。但他们认为这 是长期牛市的正常特征，对客户的核心建议是保持投资、定期调整组合，而非试图"择时进出"市场。 Wind数据统计，截至2025年11月6日，汇安多策略混合A(005109)/汇安多策略混合C(005110)复权单位净 值创成立来新高，分别达2.1115元和2.0334元。该基金聚焦科创板、创业板微盘，重点选择那些具有较 强科技创新能力、研发投入比例较高的一些具有科技属性的小微公司。 回顾今年三季度，汇安多策略混合基金在控制风险敞口(包括但不限于行业、风格、市值暴露等方面)的 前提下 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a slight decline on October 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3954.79 points, down 0.81%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.14% to 13378.21 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.31% [3][8]. - Key sectors such as cultural media, software development, automotive parts, and internet services showed strong performance, while insurance, small metals, semiconductors, and electronic components lagged behind [3][8]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.33 times and 50.25 times, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][14]. - The market is supported by multiple positive factors, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing technological self-reliance and modern industrial system construction, as well as a thawing in U.S.-China relations, which enhances market risk appetite [3][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On October 31, the A-share market opened lower and experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3954 points. The market showed a mixed performance across various sectors, with over 70% of stocks rising [8][10]. - The total trading volume for the day was 23,501 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][14]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy between technology growth and dividend value, focusing on both offensive and defensive positions. Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in cultural media, software development, automotive parts, and internet services [3][14].

Group 1 - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a rise despite the overall market decline, with the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (516880) increasing by over 1% [1] - Key stocks in the photovoltaic sector, such as Arctech, GoodWe, and Sungrow, have seen significant price increases, with Arctech rising over 11% and GoodWe over 10% [1] - GoodWe's Q3 2025 report shows a substantial revenue increase of 25.30% year-on-year, reaching 6.194 billion yuan, and a net profit surge of 837.57%, amounting to 81.12 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is benefiting from multiple favorable factors, including a national emphasis on technological self-reliance and modern industrial system construction, which provides a clear investment path [2] - The market's risk appetite has been significantly boosted, creating a favorable external environment for the A-share market, with expectations of a steady upward trend [2] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, grid equipment, and securities [2]

Market Overview - On October 29, the A-share market opened high and experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 4003 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33 points, up 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95% to 13691.38 points[8] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 22,909 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, and grid equipment, while semiconductor and banking sectors showed weaker performance[3] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets rose, with energy metals and photovoltaic equipment leading the gains[8] Valuation Metrics - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.34 times and 50.24 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current market environment is favorable for medium to long-term investments due to multiple positive factors, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and improved US-China relations[3] Investment Strategy - A balanced investment approach is recommended, seeking equilibrium between growth and dividend value, while considering both offensive and defensive strategies[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors like photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, and grid equipment[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and international relations affecting the economic environment[4]