Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, suggesting a return to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1x during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on stable profitability and high-quality development [3][4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a focus on scale to quality, with an emphasis on risk management and structural optimization. The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes the goal of building a strong financial nation, highlighting the importance of high-quality development [3][16]. - The report identifies key changes in the banking industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan," including a shift in credit structure, a focus on profitability, and the need for banks to balance risk and efficiency [2][4]. - Regulatory support is expected to stabilize net interest margins, which have reached record lows, with a projected recovery in the coming years [5][19]. Summary by Sections 1. From Quantity to Quality - The banking industry has evolved through three five-year plans, with a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on quality and risk management. The current phase emphasizes high-quality development and financial support for key sectors [2][10]. 2. Developments During the "14th Five-Year Plan" 2.1 ROE: Resilience of State-Owned Banks and Advantages of City Commercial Banks - The return on equity (ROE) for listed banks has remained around 10%, with city commercial banks showing a slight advantage due to higher leverage and better provisioning [19][20]. 2.2 Credit: Moving Away from Scale to Balance Capital and Efficiency - Banks are prioritizing structural transformation over sheer volume, focusing on supporting key sectors and optimizing credit distribution [4][12]. 2.3 Interest Margin: Recovery from Continuous Decline - The report anticipates a stabilization of net interest margins, which have been under pressure, with regulatory measures aimed at supporting banks [5][19]. 2.4 Risk: Provisioning to Support Stability - The banking sector is expected to manage risks more effectively, with a focus on maintaining adequate provisions to support profitability during challenging economic conditions [4][19]. 2.5 Financial Markets: An Alternative Revenue Stream - The report highlights the increasing importance of financial market activities as a means to smooth revenue amid declining interest income, with banks diversifying their investment strategies [4][19]. 3. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report suggests a dual strategy of focusing on leading banks and undervalued city commercial banks, anticipating a recovery in valuations for state-owned banks that have been lagging [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating a "buy" rating for the sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, emphasizing risk management and efficiency in capital utilization. This shift is driven by the need to support the real economy while managing risks effectively [2][3]. - The report highlights that the return on equity (ROE) for listed banks has remained resilient, averaging around 10%, with city commercial banks leading at 11%-12% ROE, while state-owned banks maintain about 10% [2][3]. - Key changes observed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include a shift away from scale-driven growth towards a balanced approach between capital and efficiency, a stabilization of net interest margins, and an increased focus on capital markets as a revenue source [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. From Quantity to Quality - The banking industry has evolved through three five-year plans, with a core transformation focusing on risk and efficiency rather than mere volume [2][3]. 2. High-Quality Development During the "14th Five-Year Plan" 2.1 ROE: Resilience of State-Owned and City Commercial Banks - Listed banks' ROE has slightly declined but remains around 10%, reflecting operational pressures while showcasing resilience [23]. 2.2 Credit: Balancing Capital and Efficiency - The focus has shifted from merely increasing credit volume to optimizing the structure of credit distribution, with significant changes in loan allocation towards technology and green sectors [16][19]. 2.3 Net Interest Margin: Stabilization Efforts - Regulatory support is expected to stabilize net interest margins, which have reached record lows, with proactive measures to prevent further declines [2][3]. 2.4 Risk Management: Provisioning for Stability - The banking sector has moved past peak risk levels, with provisions supporting ROE stability, while new economic challenges require ongoing risk management [2][3]. 2.5 Capital Markets: A New Revenue Stream - Capital market activities have become increasingly important, with banks leveraging these for revenue amidst pressure on interest income [2][3]. 3. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report suggests a focus on stable, high-quality development, with an expectation for bank valuations to return to 1x price-to-book (PB) ratios. It emphasizes a dual strategy of investing in leading banks and quality city commercial banks [3][4].

华福证券 2026 年度策略系列报告 于变局中开新局 摘要： 2025收官启新谋全局，"十五五"规划编制扎实推进。2025年是中国 "十四五"规划收官与"十五五"规划启动的关键之年，围绕"十五五"规 划的编制与谋篇布局，从顶层设计到领域细化、从凝聚共识到夯基定调，一 系列高规格、系统性的工作贯穿全年。 2026年"十五五"规划展望：稳中求进谋开局。2026年作为"十五五" 规划的开局之年，承担着"起好步、定基调、破难题"的核心使命，需要筑 牢未来五年攻坚根基。2025年10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》已发布，2026年关于"十五五"规划的预 计进程为1月中旬讨论草案并征求意见，2月下旬讨论拟提请全国人民代表大 会审议的草案，3月中旬经全国人民代表大会表决通过后，正式发布规划纲 要。 2026年，"十五五"规划纲要将循着草案讨论、征求意见至全国人大表 决通过的规范流程稳步落地，政策蓝图即将转化为"全面发力"的具体行 动，紧抓这一战略机遇期，紧扣转型红利与政策战略导向，以下几大重点方 向值得深度关注： 华福证券 1）现代产业体系建设，固本升级与创新育新并举。"十五五"规 ...

王江 习近平 总 书记 2 023年10月在中央金融工作会议上首次明确提出加快建设金融强国的宏伟目标，2024年1月又在省部级主要领导干部推动 金融高质量发展专题研讨班上进一步对金融强国的主要特征、目标指向、实践要求等进行了深入系统阐述。党的二十届四中全会对"十五 五"时期加快建设金融强国提出明确要求、作出战略部署，为扎实高效做好"十五五"时期金融工作提供了基本遵循，必须深刻学习领会，不 折不扣抓好贯彻落实。 一、深刻认识加快建设金融强国的重大意义 加快建设金融强 国，是以 习近平 同志为 核心的党中央着眼于以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业全局，为我国金融事业发 展擘画的壮阔蓝图，对于做好新时代新征程金融工作具有极其重大而深远的指导意义。 加快建设金融强国是全面建成社会主义现代化强国的必然要求。实现社会主义现代化是由各领域分目标耦合而形成的整体目标，建设金融强 国与全面建成社会主义现代化强国之间是局部服从整体、分目标服务于整体目标的关系。一方面，现代化强国必然是金融强国，金融是国民 经济的血脉，是国家核心竞争力的重要组成部分，是大国博弈的必争之地，社会主义现代化强国建设离不开强大金融体系的关键支撑 ...

Group 1 - The 19th Shenzhen International Financial Expo and the 2025 China Financial Institutions Annual Conference have been jointly held for the first time, attracting nearly 2,000 industry elites from various financial sectors [1] - The theme of the conference is "Empowering and Reshaping Value," featuring multiple sub-forums focused on banking, securities, asset management, futures, trust, investment banking, and insurance [1] - The total assets of China's banking sector reached 474.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, maintaining its position as the largest globally [2] Group 2 - The insurance industry's total assets have risen to 40.4 trillion yuan, while the trust industry's asset management scale surpassed 30 trillion yuan by the second quarter of this year [2] - The conference emphasized the importance of financial services in supporting technological innovation and nurturing new productive forces [2] - AI is seen as a transformative force in asset management, expanding business boundaries and reshaping processes within the industry [3] Group 3 - Public funds are encouraged to align with national strategies and enhance their investment research capabilities to better serve customer needs and long-term funding [3] - The conference serves as a platform to showcase the latest achievements in financial reform and open up collaboration opportunities [2]

Core Points - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a report meeting to promote the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period for foundational work and comprehensive efforts [1][2][3] - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing highlighted the need for the regulatory system to deeply understand the significance of the "two establishments," enhance the "four consciousnesses," strengthen the "four self-confidences," and achieve the "two safeguards" [3][4] - The meeting focused on the strategic tasks and major initiatives for the capital market during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to enhance market resilience, stability, and the quality of listed companies [3][4] Summary by Sections Meeting Overview - The CSRC organized a report meeting to discuss the implementation of the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, with a focus on the economic and social development strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Strategic Focus - Wu Qing emphasized the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period for solidifying foundations and making comprehensive efforts, aligning with the goals of building a financial powerhouse [3][4] - The meeting underscored the need for the CSRC to actively contribute to the goals set by the Central Committee through effective regulation and market development [3][4] Implementation and Training - The CSRC is tasked with ensuring thorough training and research to effectively implement the directives from the Central Committee, focusing on risk prevention, regulatory strength, and promoting high-quality market development [4]

Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, as articulated by General Secretary Xi Jinping, which provides a strategic direction for economic and social development over the next five years and beyond [1][2] Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a crucial time for consolidating foundations and making comprehensive efforts, highlighting the need for the CSRC to enhance its understanding of the "two establishments" and strengthen its commitment to the "four consciousnesses" [1] - The CSRC is tasked with developing a strategic plan for the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on enhancing market resilience, stability, and the quality of listed companies [1][2] - The regulatory framework is expected to become more inclusive and attractive, with an emphasis on effective enforcement and deeper levels of openness in the capital market [1] Group 2 - The CSRC is urged to prioritize the learning and implementation of the Plenary Session's spirit as a significant political task, ensuring comprehensive training and research efforts [2] - The focus is on translating the learning outcomes into tangible results that promote risk prevention, strengthen regulation, and encourage high-quality development in the capital market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on the strategic tasks and major initiatives for the capital market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing resilience, stability, inclusiveness, and higher quality of listed companies [2][3]. Group 1 - The CSRC aims to enhance market resilience and stability, create a more inclusive and attractive regulatory framework, and improve the quality and value of listed companies [2][3][4]. - The importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan period is highlighted as a critical time for consolidating foundations and making comprehensive efforts towards high-quality development and modernization [3]. - The CSRC is committed to implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the construction of a financial powerhouse and ensuring effective regulatory enforcement [3][4]. Group 2 - The CSRC plans to conduct extensive training and research to ensure the effective implementation of the session's spirit, transforming learning outcomes into practical results for risk prevention and high-quality market development [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and its implications for China's economic and social development, particularly focusing on the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period and the role of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in implementing these directives [1][2]. Group 1 - The CSRC is tasked with understanding and implementing the significant directives from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which outlines the strategic goals and tasks for the next five years [2]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is described as a critical time for consolidating foundations and making comprehensive efforts towards high-quality development and modernization [2]. - The CSRC aims to enhance the resilience and stability of the capital market, improve the quality and value of listed companies, and ensure effective regulatory enforcement [2][3]. Group 2 - The CSRC is expected to conduct extensive training and research to ensure the effective implementation of the directives from the Fourth Plenary Session [3]. - There is a call for a comprehensive and rigorous approach to governance within the CSRC, emphasizing the need for strict adherence to party leadership and regulatory frameworks [2][3]. - The article highlights the importance of translating the learning outcomes from the Fourth Plenary Session into tangible results in risk prevention, regulatory strength, and promotion of high-quality market development [3].

Core Points - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a report meeting to promote the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing the importance of understanding the "two establishments" and enhancing the "four consciousnesses" [1] - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing highlighted the need for the financial system to implement new requirements for building a financial powerhouse, focusing on the strategic tasks and major measures for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1 - The CSRC aims to enhance market resilience and stability, improve the quality and value of listed companies, and ensure more effective regulatory enforcement [1] - The commission is committed to deeper and higher-level market openness, alongside stricter governance within the CSRC system [1] - The overall goal is to contribute positively to the capital market's role in achieving the objectives set by the Central Committee for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]