东方证券研报指出，温氏股份25年11月销售肉猪435.35万头，同比+49.71%，环比+11.83%，单月出栏量 再创历史新高。当前鸡价景气延续。2025Q3行业出栏增速放缓，供应缓解端压力，春节前鸡价仍存较 强支撑。继续看好政策与市场共振下的产能去化。从头部猪企出栏量、价情况来看，11月猪价磨底、行 业深亏状态仍在延续。考虑到12月行业理论出栏量依然处于高位，肥猪与仔猪价格难有起色，基于利润 驱动的市场化去产能将持续兑现。当前猪价现实与预期双弱，叠加政策驱动，生猪养殖行业去产能加 速，助力猪价长期上涨。根据可比公司估值法，给予公司26年14x估值，对应目标价22.68元，维持"买 入"评级。 ...

温氏股份 300498.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 生猪出栏创新高，黄鸡景气盈利延续 ——温氏股份 11 月销售简报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 1.01/1.62/2.35 元（原 25-26 年预测分别为 1.91/1.93 元，主要由于 24 年行业盈利后提升产能利用率导致周期波动，调整了营收 和毛利率），根据可比公司估值法，给予公司26年14x估值，对应目标价22.68元， 维持"买入评级"。 风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动；投资收益及公允价值 波动风险。 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年12月10日） | 16.86 元 | | 目标价格 | 22.68 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.88/15.11 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 665,393/596,271 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 112,185 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 农业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - In October, the pig farming industry experienced a significant increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, leading to a sharp decline in pork prices due to oversupply and weakened demand [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In October, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 17.2 million pigs, representing a month-on-month increase of 23.20% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85% [1][2]. - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods, WH Group, and New Hope reported slaughter increases of 26.97%, 17.07%, and 20.87% respectively [1][2]. - The total number of market pigs slaughtered by these companies was approximately 15.4 million, with a month-on-month increase of 23.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.58% [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The increase in slaughter volume has led to a significant drop in pork prices, with most listed companies reporting a price decline of over 10% month-on-month and over 30% year-on-year [2]. - The average weight of slaughtered pigs increased to 126.27 kg, up by 1.09 kg month-on-month, indicating a trend towards heavier pigs being brought to market [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current weak prices for both fattened pigs and piglets, alongside policy-driven factors, suggest that the pig farming industry may initiate a capacity reduction phase [4]. - The price of fattened pigs has fallen below 12 yuan per kg, while weaned piglet prices are around 200 yuan per head, indicating a phase of overall industry losses [4]. - Historical trends suggest that when both fattened and piglet prices are low, the industry is likely to undergo market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, enhancing long-term performance for companies like Muyuan Foods, WH Group, and others [5]. - The recovery in pig inventory is anticipated to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, benefiting companies in the downstream supply chain [5]. - The agricultural sector is showing positive trends with rising grain prices, presenting investment opportunities in large-scale agricultural companies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group has experienced a decline in net profit for the first nine months of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% to 5.26 billion yuan, while the third quarter net profit is projected at 1.78 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first nine months, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% [1] - The net profit for Q3 is estimated to be 1.78 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company will adhere to a prudent development strategy, aiming to reduce its debt ratio to around 45% [1] - The annual output of market pigs is expected to be completed smoothly [1] Group 3: Industry Context - The pig farming industry has entered a phase of overall losses due to a significant drop in pig prices, with the industry facing strict regulatory policies [1] - The government has held several meetings regarding pig farming, with policies aimed at reducing production by 1 million pigs by the end of the year for leading pig enterprises [1] - The report suggests that the capacity reduction in the pig farming industry is likely to accelerate due to comprehensive losses and stringent regulatory enforcement [1] Group 4: Market Position - Wens Foodstuff Group is the second-largest pig farming enterprise in the country and the largest yellow-feathered chicken farming enterprise [1] - The company's costs remain among the lowest in the industry, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, with a total revenue of 75.788 billion yuan for the first nine months, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year [1] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters was 5.26 billion yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year, with quarterly revenues showing fluctuations: Q1 at 24.32 billion yuan (+11.3%), Q2 at 25.53 billion yuan (+2.6%), and Q3 at 25.94 billion yuan (-9.8%) [1] - As of September 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 49.4%, down 1.2 percentage points from June, with a target to reduce it to around 45% [1] Livestock Production - The company achieved a pig output of 27.668 million heads from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, with a target of 33-35 million heads for the year [2] - Quarterly pig output was reported as 8.594 million heads in Q1, 9.338 million in Q2, and 9.736 million in Q3, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 19.7%, 29.8%, and 35.4% [2] - The estimated profit from the pig farming business for Q3 2025 is approximately 1.5 billion yuan, contributing to a total profit of about 6.6 billion yuan for the first nine months [2] Poultry Production - The company reported a total output of 948 million yellow feathered chickens from January to September 2025, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, with a quarterly output of 282 million in Q1, 316 million in Q2, and 350 million in Q3 [3] - The estimated profit from the chicken business for Q3 2025 is around 500 million yuan, despite a total loss of approximately 700 million yuan for the first nine months [3] - The company aims for a year-on-year growth of over 5% in chicken output for 2025 [3] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a significant reduction in pig production due to regulatory policies, with a projected output of 35 million heads in 2025, remaining stable in 2026, and a slight increase in 2027 [4] - The expected profit for the company is forecasted to be 6.735 billion yuan in 2025, with a notable increase to 10.85 billion yuan in 2026 and 13.945 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The company maintains its position as the second-largest pig farming enterprise and the largest yellow feathered chicken producer in the country, with competitive cost management [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.26 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% [5] - The company aims to maintain a stable development strategy, with a target to reduce the debt ratio to around 45% [5] - The company has a leading cost advantage in livestock and poultry, with Q3 profits from the meat chicken business estimated at 500 million yuan [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 75.788 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year [5] - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 49.4% by the end of September 2025, down 1.2 percentage points from June [5] - The company’s pig output for the first nine months was 27.668 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [7] - The company’s profit from pig farming for the first half of 2025 was approximately 5.1 billion yuan [6] Business Segment Performance - The company’s meat chicken output for the first nine months was 948 million birds, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [8] - The average selling price of fattening pigs in Q3 was 13.18 yuan/kg, with comprehensive breeding costs dropping to 12.2-12.4 yuan/kg [6] - The company’s profit from the chicken business in Q3 is estimated at 500 million yuan, despite a total loss of 700 million yuan for the first nine months [9] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve its annual target for pig output of 33-35 million heads, having completed 71.4%-75.7% of this target by September [7] - Forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a gradual increase in both pig and chicken output, with net profits projected to recover significantly in 2026 and 2027 [10][11]