Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Platinum price is expected to fluctuate due to the uncertain development of the US - Iran situation. Trump's statements have affected market expectations, and while the long - term weakening of the US dollar is beneficial for platinum valuation, the current geopolitical conflict still significantly influences the market and platinum prices [2]. - Palladium price is also expected to oscillate. Supply - side uncertainties continue with potential tariffs and sanctions, and demand faces structural pressure. It mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - On March 25, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 5.63% to 505.85 yuan/gram [1]. - Trump's statements have led to a change in market expectations for the US - Iran situation, with a decline in oil prices and an improvement in interest - rate cut expectations, causing the platinum price to rise. However, Iran's attitude remains unchanged, and Trump's statements may be inconsistent, leading to short - term market volatility. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still impacts the market and platinum price [2]. Palladium - On March 25, 2026, the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 5.07% to 368.55 yuan/gram [1]. - Supply - side uncertainties persist as the US has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. Demand for palladium faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is loosening, and in the short term, supply disruptions remain, with the price mainly following the overall precious metal sector [3]. Commodity Index - On March 25, 2026, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index was 2505.87, down 0.37%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, down 1.12% [48]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On March 25, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2594.45, with a daily increase of 0.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.84%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.41% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol port inventory continues to decline, and the short - term port methanol inventory is expected to decrease further. Attention should be paid to the impact of changes in提货量 and geopolitical situation on supply expectations. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants increased last week, and the MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 3351 yuan/ton, with a环比 increase of 219 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 241 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 592,125 lots, a环比 decrease of 2,261 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,871 lots, a环比 increase of 5,459 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,641, with no change [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 3,230 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 240 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,292.5 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 697.5 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 117.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 121 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 21 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 395 US dollars/ton, a环比 increase of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 555 US dollars/ton, a环比 increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 433 euros/ton, a环比 increase of 9 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 160 US dollars/ton, a环比 decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a环比 decrease of 0.03 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 94.52 tons, a环比 decrease of 2.76 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 31.65 tons, a环比 decrease of 2.35 tons. The methanol import profit is - 209.5 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 79.97 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 tons, a环比 increase of 31.64 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 485,400 tons, a环比 decrease of 37,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 92.87%, a环比 increase of 2.72 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.43%, a环比 increase of 4.83 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.49%, a环比 increase of 1.36 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 85.4%, with no change; the MTBE operating rate is 69.51%, a环比 increase of 0.57 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 84.08%, with no change. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1,060 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 117 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 75.8%, a环比 increase of 0.42 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 57.28%, a环比 increase of 0.2 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 74.37%, a环比 decrease of 5.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 74.38%, a环比 decrease of 5.89 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 48.54 tons, a环比 decrease of 3.77 tons, or 7.21%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 27.93 tons, a环比 increase of 1.40 tons, or 5.26%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 126.17 tons, a环比 decrease of 5.11 tons. East and South China ports both saw inventory decreases. The overall methanol production increased as the production capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from restored production. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.57%, a环比 increase of 3.08%. The restart of the Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei Phase II plant and the increase in the load of Tianjin Bohua led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The methanol port inventory continues to decline. The short - term port methanol inventory is expected to continue to fall, and attention should be paid to the changes in提货量 and the impact of geopolitical situations on supply expectations [3]. - The MTO industry's start - up decreased due to the short - term shutdown of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - The short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,912 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 193 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton [3]. - The main contract's open interest is 611,729 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 44,841 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 17,583 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 21,501 lots [3]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 11,117, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,212.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 607.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 32 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 355 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 510 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 390 euros/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 155 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 US dollars [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 97.28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 34 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.51 tons [3]. - The methanol import profit is - 125.17 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons [3]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 485,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 37,700 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.15%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 37.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.88%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 4.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.28% [3]. - The acetic acid operating rate is 85.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.29%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.94%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.22% [3]. - The olefin operating rate is 84.08%, unchanged from the previous week; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 908 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 238 yuan/ton [3]. 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 70.61%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 53.2%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 66.17%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 66.18%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.43% [3]. 7. Industry News - As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 485,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,700 tons or 7.21%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 279,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 140,000 tons or 5.26% [3]. - As of March 18, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 27,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 23,500 tons. The port inventory continued to decline this week [3]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.82%. The second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei had a short - term shutdown, causing a decline in the MTO industry's start - up [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the production of urea slightly decreased as two shut - down plants resumed production, while continuing the previous cycle's plant changes. The high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants increased, leading to more consumption of urea in the industry. In the Hebei region, more plants are expected to resume production or increase their loads, and the operating rate is expected to continue rising. Recently, due to the international geopolitical conflict, the market trading sentiment has been boosted, and the downstream's enthusiasm for receiving goods has increased again, facilitating the smooth shipment of urea plants. Most urea enterprises' inventories in various regions have decreased to different extents, and the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased last week, with a short - term expectation of continued inventory reduction. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has pushed international prices to a high level. Affected by market sentiment, the domestic urea market fluctuates strongly, but the factory quotes are relatively stable due to the guidance price. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 11; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 39 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16. The trading volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 249,604 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 17,683; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 48,333. The number of exchange warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou urea is 8055 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong are 1900 yuan/ton, with no change in Hebei and Shandong and a 10 - yuan increase in Jiangsu; the price in Henan is 1870 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase; the price in Anhui is 1890 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 570 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 77.5; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 645 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 80 [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 18.9 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 95.76 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.05 million tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 93.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the daily output of urea is 219,700 tons, with no change. The export volume of urea is 28 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 32 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,289,610 tons, with an increase of 271,170 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 45.56%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.54%; the operating rate of melamine is 53.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 286 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 534 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.1799 million tons, with an increase of 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, with an increase of 2,500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.76 million tons, a decrease of 14.05 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.79%. As of March 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 18.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.53%. As of March 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5376 million tons, a decrease of 0.03 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period, showing a slight downward trend. Recently, the domestic urea output has slightly decreased. This week, 2 enterprises' plants are planned to shut down, and 3 shut - down enterprises' plants may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output is expected to have little fluctuation. Recently, agricultural demand has decreased, but due to strong market sentiment, a few dealers have replenished their stocks [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the methanol market has increased recently. The inventory of inland enterprises has slightly increased, and the port inventory has basically remained stable, with accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will decline this week, and specific attention should be paid to changes in unloading speed and提货量. The operation of domestic MTO enterprises' devices is stable, and it is expected that the industry's operating rate will continue to be stable. The short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 535,848 lots, a decrease of 103,373 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 47,517 lots, a decrease of 5,724 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9,896, a decrease of 500 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2,202.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 657.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 205 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 341 US dollars/ton, an increase of 32 US dollars; the price in Southeast Asia is 405 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 365 euros/ton, an increase of 3 euros; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, an increase of 27 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 106.84 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 37.51 tons, a decrease of 2.74 tons. The import profit of methanol is 1.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 63.64 yuan; the monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, an increase of 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.65%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 28.72%, an increase of 14.02 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 2.85%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 84.11%, unchanged; the operating rate of MTBE is 67.72%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 84.08%, unchanged; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 627 yuan/ton, an increase of 629 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 58.78%, an increase of 7.75 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 81.59%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 26.85%, an increase of 5.55 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 81.62% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 552,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.19%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 295,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 104.91%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4435 million tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with the previous period. East China accumulated inventory, and South China destocked. Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the output of restored production capacity, and the overall output has decreased. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 85.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is strong, and the reference view is oscillation. The coking coal price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern due to limited fundamental support and a long - term expectation of loose supply and demand [1][5]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the reference view is oscillation. The coke price is expected to run at a low level with stable supply and demand in the short term and limited cost support from coking coal [1][6]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Short - term supply contracts during the Spring Festival but will quickly recover after the festival. In the long - run, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to loose supply - demand expectations [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The main driving factors are the short - term supply contraction during the Spring Festival, the long - term loose supply - demand situation, and the low - level stabilization of thermal coal prices. There are also three potential positive risks: geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions, and potential "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The fundamentals have no obvious change, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The cost support from coking coal is limited, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6]. - **Driving Factors**: The supply and demand are stable during the Spring Festival. Although the supply of coking coal contracts in the short term, the coking enterprises and steel mills have sufficient coal stocks, and the resumption of coal mine production after the festival limits the cost support for coke. The uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6].

Report Overview - The report is a coal and coking morning report from Baocheng Futures on February 12, 2026, covering short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on coking coal and coke, along with their price driving logic [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern before the Spring Festival, with coking coal influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and domestic policies, and coke having stable supply - demand and limited price - moving factors [1][5][6] According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - For coking coal (2605), short - term view is oscillatory, medium - term view is oscillatory, intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillatory, with attention on Middle - East geopolitics and domestic policy impacts [1] - For coke (2605), short - term view is oscillatory, medium - term view is oscillatory, intraday view is oscillatory and slightly strong, and the overall view is oscillatory, due to stable supply - demand and range - bound price [1] 2. Main Variety Price Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - Intraday view is strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory [5] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1230.0 yuan/ton, a 2.50% week - on - week increase. Before the Spring Festival, coal mine production decreases, but downstream inventory is sufficient, and production will quickly resume after the festival. The long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, so the price is expected to oscillate at a low level before the Spring Festival [5] - There are three major upside risks: potential escalation of US - Iran geopolitical conflicts during the Spring Festival, economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, and possible "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to low coal prices [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view is oscillatory and slightly strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory [6] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change, and the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a 0.68% week - on - week decrease. The supply - demand at both ends has a small increase at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]