期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 基本面支撑有限，焦煤维持低位 | | | | | | | | 震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 供需暂稳，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：春节期间煤矿停产休 ...

Report Overview - The report is a coal and coking morning report from Baocheng Futures on February 12, 2026, covering short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on coking coal and coke, along with their price driving logic [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern before the Spring Festival, with coking coal influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and domestic policies, and coke having stable supply - demand and limited price - moving factors [1][5][6] According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - For coking coal (2605), short - term view is oscillatory, medium - term view is oscillatory, intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillatory, with attention on Middle - East geopolitics and domestic policy impacts [1] - For coke (2605), short - term view is oscillatory, medium - term view is oscillatory, intraday view is oscillatory and slightly strong, and the overall view is oscillatory, due to stable supply - demand and range - bound price [1] 2. Main Variety Price Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - Intraday view is strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory [5] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1230.0 yuan/ton, a 2.50% week - on - week increase. Before the Spring Festival, coal mine production decreases, but downstream inventory is sufficient, and production will quickly resume after the festival. The long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, so the price is expected to oscillate at a low level before the Spring Festival [5] - There are three major upside risks: potential escalation of US - Iran geopolitical conflicts during the Spring Festival, economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, and possible "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to low coal prices [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view is oscillatory and slightly strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory [6] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change, and the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a 0.68% week - on - week decrease. The supply - demand at both ends has a small increase at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]