Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints -受宏观影响煤炭偏强，能化走势趋于一致，但交割临近品种基本面有强弱差异 [4] -甲醇09合约8月港口到港多，华东华南库存基本定满，港口09前压力大；内地因宝丰持续外采维持偏强，但传统下游采购积极性低 [4] -甲醇短期见底需看到港口倒流或内地停止外采 [4] -海外本月伊朗发运快，8月发运34万附近，本月预期80 - 90万，港口累库预期偏强 [4] -09基本面偏弱，关注下游抵抗行为、后续到货压力、港口 - 内地价差及港口提货情况 [4] -本周预计港口甲醇库存累库 [5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 2200 - 2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - **Scenario**: High finished - product inventory, worried about methanol price decline - **Strategy**: - To prevent inventory losses, short methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry interval of 2250 - 2350 [3] - Buy put options (MA2509P2250) to prevent sharp price drops, with a hedging ratio of 50% - Sell call options (MA2509C2350) to reduce capital costs, with an entry interval of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - **Scenario**: Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders - **Strategy**: - To prevent rising procurement costs, buy methanol futures (MA2509) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry interval of 2200 - 2350 [3] - Sell put options (MA2509P2300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry interval of 20 - 25 [3]

甲醇套保策略表 甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/08/05 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 港口库存方面，本周预计外轮抵港码头较为分散，到港量较为充足，预计港口甲醇库存累库。 . 免責声明 本报告仅供本公司境内客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。本报告并非意图发送、发布给在当地法律或监管规 则下不允许向其发送、发布的机构或人员，也并非意图发送、发布给因可得到、使用本报告的行为而使本公司违反或受制于当地法律或监 管规则的机构或人员。本报告中的信息均来源于已公开的资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告所载资料、意 见 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The recent methanol price fluctuations are mainly driven by macro factors rather than industry fundamentals, with intensified speculative sentiment. It is recommended to wait for the implementation of macro - policies. From an industrial perspective, methanol is not suitable for upward trading, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 and sell call options (MA2509C2) at 45 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can sell put options (MA2509P2) with a 75% ratio at 20 - 25 to reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The recent methanol price fluctuations are not industry - led, exceeding fundamental analysis, with intensified speculative sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, Iranian shipments are accelerating, with 610,000 tons shipped so far and an import forecast of around 1.25 million tons for July - August. Methanol coal - to - methanol profits remain high. The profit of methanol downstream is further compressed. It is not advisable to go long on methanol from an industrial perspective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall fundamentals of methanol have weakened recently. Although it tested the bottom around 2350, most varieties rebounded due to anti - involution, and market expectations for policies were high. However, the coal - chemical sector, including methanol, struggled to keep up. The short - term outlook for methanol is weak, and attention should be paid to whether port提货 improves [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2250) with a 50% ratio and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 45 - 60% ratio to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can also sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - Methanol tested the bottom around 2350, but the coal - chemical sector couldn't keep up with the market rebound. The fundamentals weakened due to normal recovery in Iran (150,000 shipments as of the weekend), rumors of mto - end Xingxing's ship rerouting and potential shutdown, and poor port提货 after the geopolitical conflict, along with increased arrivals at port public tank farms in July leading to inventory accumulation and potential inventory expansion [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so port methanol inventory is expected to increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2% [3]. - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 6800 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.56% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.2% [3]. - The predicted monthly price range for plastic is 6800 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.24% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about methanol price drops, shorting methanol futures (MA2509, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350) can lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Buying put options (MA2509P2250, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 15 - 20) can prevent significant price drops, and selling call options (MA2509C2350, 45 - 60) can reduce capital costs [3]. Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buying methanol futures (MA2509, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2350) can lock in procurement costs [3]. - Selling put options (MA2509P2300, 75% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 25) can earn premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - Inland methanol performs better than port methanol due to recent inland plant maintenance, external purchases by inland CTO plants, and purchases of inland methanol by port MTO plants [4]. - After the anti - involution meeting in the second half of the week, the commodity and financial markets rose, leading to premium transactions in plant auctions [4]. - After the end of the short - squeeze in late June at the port, the external supply is gradually recovering, and the basis is continuously weakening [4]. - Currently, the inventory is low, the port inventory is accumulating slowly, and Iran has suffered actual production losses, but there are significant differences in July shipments and no conclusion on Iran's inventory [4]. - As of the weekend, Iran's plants are gradually recovering, with 3 ships shipped at a decent pace [4]. - In late July, Chengzhi's large plant plans to shut down for 1 - 2 months, and Zhongyuan Ethylene shut down on June 27 for 1 - 2 months [4]. - The forecasted inventory in Taicang in July is around 230,000 tons, and the current high basis in Taicang may lead to a correction later [4]. 4. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at the port is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, which may lead to an increase in port methanol inventory [5].