Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Due to the warm domestic market sentiment, lead prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation, resulting in a weak fundamental situation. However, strong market bullish sentiment may lead to zinc prices trading in a range in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,955 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,020.50 dollars/ton, down 0.12%. The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.39, up 0.51% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 63.37%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of recycled lead enterprises was 40.7%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.86%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase. The electric bicycle trade - in program has boosted the industry, with a 113.5% average monthly - on - month increase in sales from January to June 2025, and a 27.6% year - on - year increase in the production of the top ten brands [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For recycled lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. As the inventory of electrolytic lead in factories decreases, the market's acceptance of high - priced recycled lead has improved. The market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases at the end of the month for inventory checks [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,829.00 dollars/ton, down 0.40%. The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.09, down 0.16% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 59.42%, a 0.30 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.03%, a 0.92 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.99%, a 0.33 - percentage - point decrease. The total inventory of zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 35.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.6 million tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic smelters are negotiating next - month's zinc processing fees, and it is expected that processing fees will continue to rise in August. With the continuous strength of zinc prices during the week, downstream off - season purchases have significantly decreased [1].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce reported a significant increase in the sales of electric bicycles through trade-in programs, with a monthly average growth rate of 113.5% from January to June this year [1] Sales Performance - From January to June, the total number of electric bicycles exchanged through the trade-in program reached 8.465 million units, which is 6.1 times the figure for 2024 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For lead, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.58%. With no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to rising scrap lead - acid battery prices and limited raw materials. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down. However, due to the inventory accumulation risk, the upward momentum of lead prices is limited [1]. - For zinc, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 1.07%. Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and the output is showing an increasing trend. The demand is weak, and most downstream enterprises only replenish inventory as needed. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, but the rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price: 16,925.00 yuan/ton, - 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 17,100.00 yuan/ton, - 0.58% [1] - Shanghai lead basis: - 175.00 yuan/ton, + 75.00 [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,039.00 US dollars/ton, - 0.12% [1] - Shanghai - London lead price ratio: 8.39, - 0.46% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price: 22,210.00 yuan/ton, - 0.94% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 22,255.00 yuan/ton, - 1.07% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis: - 45.00 yuan/ton, + 30.00 [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,713.50 US dollars/ton, - 1.00% [1] - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio: 8.20, - 0.06% [1] 2. Inventory Data Lead - LME inventory: 270,075.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory: 46,389.00 tons, + 0.22% [1] Zinc - LME inventory: 114,900.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory: 6,824.00 tons, - 3.57% [1] 3. Trading Volume and Open Interest Data Lead - Futures active contract trading volume: 31,387.00 lots, - 2.89% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 51,411.00 lots, + 0.01% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 0.61, - 2.90% [1] Zinc - Futures active contract trading volume: 178,683.00 lots, + 11.04% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 134,433.00 lots, - 4.10% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 1.33, + 15.79% [1] 4. Industry News Lead - Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Rules for the Replacement Subsidy of Electric Bicycles in Shanghai in 2025". From July 1 to December 31, 2025, individual consumers who trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones will receive a one - time 500 - yuan subsidy, and an additional 100 - yuan subsidy for those who trade in for lead - acid battery electric bicycles [1] - Nandu Power signed a 1.4GWh energy storage system supply contract for a large - scale new - energy photovoltaic project in India [1] Zinc - In April 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 137,600 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, and the total production from January to April was 458,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [1] - A mine in southwest China's zinc ore tender price in July was 3,770 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/metal ton [1] - Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter resumed full - scale operation with normal capacity utilization after a three - day shutdown [1]

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed results with Dow Jones up by 0.91%, while Nasdaq fell by 0.82% and S&P 500 decreased by 0.11% [1] - Notable declines in major tech stocks: Tesla down 5.34%, Nvidia down 2.97%, Meta Platforms down 2.56%, Microsoft down 1.08%, and Google A down 0.22% [1] - Amazon and Apple saw gains, with Amazon up 0.49% and Apple up 1.29% [1] Solar Industry - Solar concept stocks generally rose as the US Senate removed Trump's proposals regarding wind and solar projects from the tax law draft [2] - The Senate also overwhelmingly rejected Trump's AI regulatory ban with a vote of 99 to 1 [2] Economic Indicators - The US ISM Manufacturing Index has contracted for four consecutive months [4] - The JOLTS job openings for May were significantly better than expected [4] Domestic Developments - China's Central Economic Committee emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy [6] - The Shanghai government announced a subsidy program for electric bicycles, providing a one-time subsidy of 500 yuan for consumers trading in old bikes for new ones [13] Electric Vehicle Market - BYD reported sales of 382,600 new energy vehicles in June, while Xiaomi delivered 25,000 units and XPeng saw a year-on-year increase of 224% in deliveries [8] Semiconductor and Technology - New and existing companies are making significant advancements in semiconductor technology, with companies like Huawai Design and TaiLing Micro achieving notable stock price increases [19] - Google signed a power purchase agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems, marking a significant step in the emerging nuclear fusion energy sector [14] IPO and Market Activity - He Yuan Bio's IPO application was approved on the same day it was submitted, marking a significant event for the STAR Market [8] - Several companies are expected to see significant profit increases in the upcoming half-year, including Xinhe Cheng with a projected net profit of 3.3 to 3.75 billion yuan, representing a 50% to 70% year-on-year growth [17]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce has issued the implementation details for the "2025 Electric Bicycle Trade-in Subsidy," which will provide a one-time subsidy of 500 yuan for consumers trading in old electric bicycles for new compliant models from July 1 to December 31, 2025 [1] - An additional subsidy of 100 yuan will be provided for consumers trading in old electric bicycles for new lead-acid battery electric bicycles [1] - The policy encourages consumers to purchase new electric bicycles from companies that meet the "Electric Bicycle Industry Standard Conditions" [1] Group 2 - The electric bicycle trade-in program has seen over 6 million units traded in this year, with monthly trade-ins exceeding 1 million units [1] - As of May 20, 2023, the nationwide trade-in program has facilitated the sale of 1.782 billion yuan worth of new electric bicycles [1] - Compared to the total of 1.38 million units traded in during the same period last year, the new national subsidy policy has significantly boosted demand [1] Group 3 - The electric bicycle industry is expected to see improved sales in the second and third quarters due to seasonal trends and manufacturers' production schedules [2] - The implementation of new national standards will require manufacturers to redesign and upgrade production lines, intensifying competition in the industry [2] - Companies with scale and channel advantages, such as Aima Technology (603529), and those with R&D and product strength, like Ninebot, are recommended for attention [2]

Group 1 - The core initiative is the launch of the 2025 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) rural promotion activity in Jiangsu, organized by five government departments [1] - The program aims to select typical county-level cities with low NEV promotion ratios and significant market potential, encouraging participation from various market entities in production, sales, finance, charging, and after-sales services [4] - The initiative will implement promotional schemes combining vehicle purchase discounts, energy support, and service guarantees, utilizing both online and offline methods [4] Group 2 - Over the past five years, more than 29 special events and hundreds of promotional activities have been held across over 10 provinces and regions, resulting in the release of over 400 NEV models and nearly 15 million units sold [6] - In Beijing, since the launch of the old-for-new electric bicycle program in September 2024, over 140,000 applications have been submitted, leading to new vehicle sales exceeding 380 million yuan [7] - The sales volume of electric bicycles in stores has increased, with overall sales growth of approximately 15% to 20% compared to the same period in 2024 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong province is actively promoting the electric bicycle trade-in program, achieving significant sales growth and consumer engagement through government subsidies and multi-department collaboration [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales and Market Impact - As of May 26, 2023, Guangdong has sold 174,000 electric bicycles through the trade-in program, which is three times the volume from the previous year [1] - The program has utilized 87.08 million yuan in subsidies, driving over 400 million yuan in new electric bicycle consumption [1] - Major cities in the Pearl River Delta, including Guangzhou and Foshan, have shown remarkable results, accounting for approximately 80% of the total trade-in volume [1] Group 2: Policy and Implementation - The national government has introduced policies to support large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs for electric bicycles, with Guangdong's departments implementing these policies effectively [1][2] - A total of 6,992 sales enterprises and 84 qualified recycling companies are participating in the trade-in program, with 486 promotional events conducted [1][2] Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Incentives - The trade-in policy has significantly boosted sales, with some stores reporting over a 30% increase in sales compared to the same period last year [2] - Companies like Aima and Yadi are offering additional incentives, such as discounts of up to 1,600 yuan for consumers participating in the trade-in program [2] - The introduction of innovative systems, such as the "Electric Vehicle Expert Service Terminal" in Guangzhou, has improved the efficiency of old vehicle recycling and subsidy distribution [2] Group 4: Recycling and Environmental Impact - Guangdong has established a comprehensive recycling system for waste lead-acid batteries, with 94 collection points and an annual collection capacity of 800,000 tons [3] - The province aims to enhance the convenience of the trade-in process by creating a "one-stop" shopping experience for consumers, integrating recycling, new vehicle selection, and subsidy applications [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong province is accelerating the promotion of electric bicycle trade-in programs, achieving significant results in the number of bicycles exchanged and the amount of subsidies utilized [2][4]. Group 1: Trade-in Program Performance - As of May 26, Guangdong has sold 174,000 electric bicycles through the trade-in program, ranking first in the country, with the exchange volume approximately three times that of the previous year [2]. - The total subsidy amount utilized is 87.08 million yuan, which has stimulated over 400 million yuan in new electric bicycle consumption [2]. - The top five cities in terms of trade-in numbers are Guangzhou (38,000), Foshan (37,000), Huizhou (29,000), Shenzhen (18,000), and Dongguan (16,000), collectively accounting for about 80% of the province's total [2]. Group 2: Recycling and Environmental Management - Guangdong has established a comprehensive system for the recycling and management of waste lead-acid batteries, with 94 collection points and an annual collection capacity of 800,000 tons [3]. - The province has built five recycling lead enterprises with an annual processing capacity of 500,000 tons, fully meeting the recycling and processing needs [3]. - The management of old vehicles includes strict verification and monitoring processes to prevent old vehicles from re-entering the market, ensuring compliance with environmental regulations [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Oversight - Since 2025, the Guangdong market supervision system has conducted inspections involving 59,000 personnel, checking 43,000 electric bicycle production, sales, and repair units, leading to 993 legal cases and the seizure of over 2,300 related products [5]. - The total value of seized products reached 2.56 million yuan, with fines and confiscations amounting to 3.75 million yuan, creating a strong deterrent effect against violations [5].

为深入贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署，落实消费品以旧换新、电动自行车安全隐患全链条整治工作要 求，推动电动自行车以旧换新工作提速增量，2025年5月8日，商务部流通发展司在河北省保定市开展电 动自行车以旧换新调研并组织座谈。座谈会上，河北省商务厅、保定市人民政府等介绍了经验做法，部 分省级商务主管部门发言，流通发展司司长李佳路同志讲话。会议要求，各地商务主管部门要在当地电 动自行车安全隐患全链条整治专班的指导和支持下，从优化流程畅通堵点、加强统筹协调、完善工作保 障、防范化解风险等方面发力，将电动自行车以旧换新这项既利当下、又利长远，既保安全、又促消 费，既助企业、又惠民生的工作开展好。(商务部) ...