2025/12/1 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 碳酸锂周报 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比减少440吨至23875吨，11月产量环比增加3%至103740吨。宁德枧下窝矿山仍未复产， 宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，供应受到影响。三季度澳矿实现对成本的管控，澳矿进一步降本空间极为有限， 主流澳矿基本均已下调25财年资本开支。海外进口方面，2025年10月国内进口锂精矿为65.2万吨，环比减少8.3%，其中进口量前三 的国家分别为澳大利亚、津巴布韦、尼日利亚。10月澳大利亚进口锂精矿环比减少15%，来自津巴布韦进口15万吨，环比增加41%， 来自尼日利亚进口12万吨，环比持平。10月碳酸锂进口23881吨，环比增加21.9%，来自智利进口1.48万吨，占比62%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [3] Group 2: Weekly View Supply Situation - Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 465 tons week-on-week to 24,315 tons, and October production increased by 10% month-on-month to 105,040 tons [5] - Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re-review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply [5] - In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the space for further cost reduction is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25 [5] - In October 2025, China imported 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Imports from Australia decreased by 15% month-on-month, those from Zimbabwe increased by 41% to 150,000 tons, and those from Nigeria remained flat at 120,000 tons [5] - In October, carbonate lithium imports were 23,881 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.9%. Imports from Chile were 14,800 tons, accounting for 62% [5] - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week-on-week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand Situation - In October, overall production scheduling increased month-on-month. In September, the production scheduling of large battery cell manufacturers increased by 8% month-on-month [6] - In October, the combined production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 50.5%. The combined export was 28.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 33.5%. Sales were 166.0 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 13.3% and a year-on-year increase of 50.8% [6] - The trade-in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax on the policy side are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales in the Chinese market [6] Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 1,430 tons, market inventory increased by 426 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 322 tons [6] Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is still shut down. In October, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 10% month-on-month, imports of lithium concentrate were 652,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%, and the total imports of carbonate lithium were about 24,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand remain in a tight balance. It is expected that subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply [7] - From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. It is expected that the production scheduling of cathode materials in October will increase by 4% month-on-month after an 8% increase in September. The risk of mining licenses in Yichun persists. With profit recovery, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center moves up. The process of new contract signing and application for Yichun mining enterprises is still undetermined. Downstream production scheduling exceeds expectations, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end [7] - Downstream enterprises are actively purchasing carbonate lithium, and destocking continues. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [7] Group 3: Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax-included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, factory monthly inventory, average price of lithium concentrate, production of different raw materials for carbonate lithium, production and loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of carbonate lithium, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, and average price of ternary materials type 8 NCA [9][10][19]

Group 1: Energy Sector Developments - The National Energy Administration emphasizes that by 2030, integrated development will become a significant approach for renewable energy, enhancing reliability and market competitiveness, thus supporting a comprehensive green transformation of the economy [2] - Major energy state-owned enterprises are accelerating their relocation to Xiong'an New Area, with headquarters and subsidiaries establishing a collaborative development pattern that includes headquarters, research bases, and supporting enterprises [2] - In October, China's production of power and other batteries reached 170.6 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 50.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.9% [4] - Two 500 kV substations in Sichuan have been put into operation, adding a total of 480 MVA capacity, which will support the electricity supply and high-quality development in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [4] - A significant natural gas discovery in Daban City, Xinjiang, has been reported, with an estimated geological resource of over 200 billion cubic meters, indicating potential for a large oil and gas field [5] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Changes - The Market Supervision Administration has revoked 1,557 mandatory product certification certificates following a validity check on 3,001 batches of products, indicating a focus on compliance in the certification process [3] - The global largest 65-ton lithium battery counterbalance forklift has been launched, representing a technological benchmark in the heavy-duty electric vehicle sector [3] Group 3: International Energy Market Impact - Bulgaria faces a fuel supply crisis due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, with available gasoline stocks sufficient for only about 35 days [6] - Russian shareholders of Serbia's oil company are willing to transfer control to a third party in response to U.S. sanctions, indicating potential shifts in ownership and operational control in the energy sector [6] Group 4: Power Demand Trends - Xinjiang's power grid recorded a historical peak load of 49.6 million kilowatts, reflecting a stable operation and reliable power supply amidst increasing demand [7]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Government Actions - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced countermeasures against the U.S. for implementing restrictions on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors based on the Section 301 investigation results [1] - China has placed five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Marine on a countermeasure list as part of its response to U.S. actions [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased reverse repurchase operations [2] - This operation will add 100 billion yuan to the existing 500 billion yuan of six-month reverse repos maturing in October [2] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - JD.com, GAC Group, and CATL are collaborating to launch a new vehicle on November 9, targeting the mass market with prices ranging from 50,000 to 300,000 yuan [3] - The vehicle aims to meet over 90% of daily commuting needs and will feature innovations in safety, battery technology, and user services [3] Group 4: Smart Terminal Industry Growth - Shanghai aims to grow its smart terminal industry to over 300 billion yuan by 2027, with plans to develop influential consumer brands and leading enterprises [4] - The action plan includes enhancing AI computing capabilities and expanding production capacity for AI smartphones and robotics [4] Group 5: Battery Production and Sales - In September, China's production of power and other batteries reached 151.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [5] - Cumulative production for the first nine months of 2025 was 1,121.9 GWh, reflecting a 51.4% year-on-year growth [5] Group 6: Electric Vehicle Battery Installations - In September, the installation of power batteries in vehicles reached 76.0 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 39.5% [6] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 81.8% of the total installation volume, showing a significant growth trend [6] Group 7: Data Center Energy Demand - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for global data center electricity demand in 2030 to a 175% increase compared to 2023, indicating a substantial rise in energy consumption [7] - The report highlights that AI applications are driving this demand, with predictions that AI-focused data centers will see a fourfold increase in energy needs [7] Group 8: Investment Opportunities in Energy Sector - Goldman Sachs suggests investors focus on reliability, availability, and efficiency in the energy sector, particularly in power generation, equipment, and demand-side management [8] - The "6P framework" is proposed to identify investment opportunities related to AI and energy consumption [8]

Group 1 - Shenghe Resources reported a year-on-year increase of 696.82% to 782.96% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [1] - Far East Global announced that it is not involved in "controlled nuclear fusion" related business [1] - Ruiyi Group is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected violations of information disclosure [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with Nvidia dropping over 4% and the China concept index falling by 1.95% [2] - WTI crude oil for November delivery fell by 1.33%, closing at $58.7 per barrel [2] - A Bank of America survey indicated that bullish sentiment on gold has replaced bullish sentiment on the seven major U.S. tech stocks as the most crowded trade [2] - A record high percentage of fund managers believe that AI stock valuations have entered a bubble [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year [2] - The IEA's monthly report suggests that the oil market will face a more severe supply surplus than previously expected [2] - Oracle plans to deploy 50,000 AMD AI chips in its cloud services starting in the second half of 2026 [2] - Japanese stocks fell by 2.58%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 11 [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed may stop balance sheet reduction in the coming months [2] - Powell hinted at support for further interest rate cuts due to a cooling U.S. labor market [2] - Trump threatened to impose a ban on edible oil imports from China in retaliation for China's refusal to buy U.S. soybeans [2] - The IMF's latest report projects a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for this year [2] - Li Qiang emphasized the need for effective counter-cyclical adjustments and resource utilization through reform measures [2] - The Power Battery Industry Alliance reported that China's sales of power and other batteries reached 146.5 GWh in September, a year-on-year increase of 42.2% [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on October 15 [2] - Shanghai is enhancing its robotics capabilities and accelerating the industrialization of core components such as edge-side chips and batteries [2] - Shanghai is advancing the layout of core chips like SoC and CPU, covering three major technology routes: X86, ARM, and RISC-V [2] - Shanghai aims to scale up intelligent computing terminal capabilities, driving the large-scale application of core components like autonomous GPUs and interconnection modules [2] - Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology saw a 172.41% increase in its dark market trading, with a profit of 10,000 HKD for one lot [2] - Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology is set to be listed on the Hong Kong stock market today, with A-share companies Super Electronics and Taikai Ying accepting subscriptions [2] - Southbound funds have reduced holdings in SMIC and Alibaba for four consecutive days, while net buying of Xiaomi has continued for seven days [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese power battery industry is experiencing significant growth, with total battery sales reaching 146.5 GWh in September, marking a month-on-month increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 42.2% [1] Battery Sales Breakdown - Power battery sales accounted for 110.5 GWh, representing 75.5% of total sales, with a month-on-month growth of 11.8% and a year-on-year growth of 44.4% [1] - Other battery sales totaled 36.0 GWh, making up 24.5% of total sales, with a month-on-month increase of 1.0% and a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [1] Cumulative Sales Data - From January to September, total battery sales in China reached 1067.2 GWh, reflecting a cumulative year-on-year growth of 55.8% [1] - Cumulative power battery sales were 786 GWh, which is 73.7% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 48.9% [1] - Cumulative sales of other batteries reached 281.1 GWh, accounting for 26.3% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 78.9% [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week's carbonate lithium production increased by 250 tons to 21,000 tons, and August production increased by 7.8% to 92,380 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine will be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for mineral right transfer review, affecting supply. In Q1, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. The top three import countries were Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa. The import volume of carbonate lithium in July was 14,000 tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease [5]. - Demand side: The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease but a 23.9% year - on - year increase. Sales were 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase [6]. - Price outlook: It is expected that the import of South American lithium salts will supplement supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good. The cost center has shifted upward. It is expected that the short - term price of carbonate lithium will be supported, but it will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Zhoudu Viewpoint (Weekly Viewpoint) - **Supply situation**: The production volume, mine shutdown, mineral right review, and import volume of lithium ore and carbonate lithium are as described above. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using外购 lithium ore for carbonate lithium production faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. - **Demand situation**: The September production schedule increased, and the production, export, and sales data of power and other batteries in August are as mentioned. The new energy vehicle market in China is expected to be supported by policies [6]. - **Inventory situation**: This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state, with factory inventory increasing by 360 tons, market inventory decreasing by 2,663 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,994 tons [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material factories [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - **Price data**: It includes the historical prices of carbonate lithium (such as Shanghai - colored spot tax - included average price, average price of 99.2% industrial - grade carbonate lithium), lithium spodumene concentrate, and related battery materials like average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, average price of NCA - type ternary materials [9][18][21]. - **Production data**: It involves the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, the monthly production of power batteries, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials in August 2024 (salt lake 21.56%, lithium mica 23.05%, lithium spodumene 43.87%), and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [5][10][12][25]. - **Import data**: It contains the import volume of lithium spodumene and the import volume of lithium ore from different countries in July 2025 [5][39]. - **Inventory data**: It consists of the weekly and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, and the inventory of smelters and downstream [14][19][22].

Macro Economic Group - In August, M2 growth was 8.8% year-on-year, the highest since December 2023, while M1 growth was 6.0%, the highest since January 2023, indicating a significant acceleration in the speed of money circulation [5][6] - The total social financing (TSF) in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, lower than the previous year's figure by 463 billion yuan, with a notable decrease in government bonds and loans [5] - Bank credit increased by 590 billion yuan in August, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in both household and corporate loans [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Recent US sanctions on Chinese companies, including Shanghai Fudan, may lead to short-term stock sell-offs, but China's countermeasures could benefit domestic analog chip manufacturers [9] - The global analog chip market is recovering, with price increases from major manufacturers, suggesting improved profitability for domestic firms if anti-dumping investigations succeed [9] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In August, China's battery sales reached 134.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for the majority of the growth [11] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims for new energy storage capacity to reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving significant investment in the sector [12] - The automotive industry is projected to see a 3% increase in total sales in 2025, with a 20% growth in new energy vehicle sales, indicating a shift towards smart and electric vehicles [12] Consumer Group - Jiangnan Buyi reported a total revenue of 5.548 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, a 4.6% increase, driven by online sales and store expansion [14] - The company's membership system plays a crucial role, with over 80% of retail revenue coming from members, highlighting the importance of customer loyalty [14] Bond Research Group - The bond market experienced an overall rise in interest rates, influenced by concerns over high redemption fees for bond funds and a weak inflation outlook [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of various financial markets, including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, along with important macroeconomic and industry - specific news. It shows a complex picture of market trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and economic data releases. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.23% at $3673.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.12% at $42.07 per ounce [3][44] - US oil and Brent crude oil futures declined, with US oil down 2.25% at $62.24 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.78% at $66.29 per barrel [4][44] - London base metals all rose, with LME aluminum up 2.06% at $2679.00 per ton, LME zinc up 0.64% at $2905.00 per ton, LME nickel up 0.49% at $15220.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.44% at $10057.00 per ton [4][45] - Domestic futures contracts were mixed, with some like soybeans and palm oil rising and others like low - sulfur fuel oil and glass falling [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - As of September 11, Ningbo Zhoushan Port's container throughput exceeded 30 million TEUs, 23 days earlier than last year [8] - From September 1 - 7, the national passenger car market retail sales were 304,000 units, down 10% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month, with cumulative sales of 15.069 million units this year, up 9% year - on - year [8] - In August, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, up 13% and 16.4% year - on - year [8][32] - US investors' interest in the Chinese market reached the highest level since 2021 [9] - US August CPI data was higher than expected, but Fed rate cuts next week are still likely due to a weak job market [9] - US initial jobless claims reached a nearly four - year high, increasing bets on Fed rate cuts, but strong CPI may prevent large - scale cuts [11] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 11, East China port methanol inventory was 808,100 tons, up 98,200 tons from last week [13] - Singapore fuel oil and light distillate inventories decreased, while medium distillate inventory increased [13] - IEA raised 2025 global oil supply and demand growth forecasts [13] - OPEC maintained 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts, and OPEC + production increased in August [15] - US natural gas inventory increased in the week ending September 5 [15] Metal Futures - Ningde Times' subsidiary made decisions for lithium mine复产 [17] - In August, China's power and other battery exports were 22.6GWh, down 2.6% month - on - month and up 23.9% year - on - year [17] - Vietnam plans to open a gold exchange and allow gold imports [18] - Gold prices exceeded the inflation - adjusted peak of 45 years ago [18] Black - Series Futures - This week, rebar inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [20] - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines increased, and coal inventory decreased [20] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [20] Agricultural Futures - India should adjust sugar and ethanol prices and allow sugar exports [22] - Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September, and inventory may increase in September [22][24] - Brazilian soybean and corn production forecasts were positive [24][25] - US soybean, corn, and cotton planting areas affected by drought increased [25] Financial Markets Finance - A - shares rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.65%, Shenzhen Component Index up 3.36%, ChiNext Index up 5.15%, and STAR 50 up 5.32% [28] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.43%, and southbound funds had large net purchases [28] - A - share refinancing market activity increased significantly this year [30][31] - Hesai Technology's Hong Kong IPO price was set, and funds raised are expected to be HK$4.16 billion [31] Industry - From 2026, new energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved [32] - China will include HPV vaccines in the national immunization program [32] - Multiple illegal accounts related to enterprise - related online "black mouths" were dealt with [32] - 15 platform companies will sign algorithm and labor rule agreements [33] - 2025 securities firm classification evaluation results are expected to be released in mid - to - late September [35] - Bank wealth management companies' scale increased in August [35] - Some Taobao merchants suspended gold repurchase due to platform rule adjustments [35] - China's express delivery development index increased in August [36] Overseas - The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged, and the market expects the end of the rate - cut cycle [37] - South Korea may need to cut rates due to US tariffs [37] - Switzerland proposed a comprehensive plan to resolve trade disputes with the US [37] - Turkey's central bank cut rates by more than expected [39] International Stocks - US stocks reached new highs, with the Dow up 1.36%, S&P 500 up 0.85%, and Nasdaq up 0.72% [40] - European stocks rose, driven by positive economic data and rate - cut expectations [40] - Asian - Pacific stocks continued to rise, with Japanese and South Korean stocks hitting new highs [40] - Japan's central bank plans to reduce ETF holdings [41] - Tata Capital plans a large - scale IPO [41] - Adobe released its Q3 financial results and Q4 earnings forecast [43] Commodities - Precious metals had mixed performance, with gold down and silver up [3][44] - Crude oil prices fell due to supply - demand changes [4][44] - Base metals rose, influenced by Fed rate - cut expectations [45] Bonds - China's bond market had a mixed performance, with short - to - medium - term bonds strengthening and 30 - year bonds weakening [47] - US bond yields had different trends [47] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly, and the US dollar index fell [48]

Production and Sales Data - In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China reached 139.6 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [1] - From January to August, the cumulative production of power and other batteries was 970.7 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 54.3% [1] - In August, the total sales of power and other batteries amounted to 134.5 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 45.6% [1] - The sales of power batteries in August were 98.9 GWh, accounting for 73.5% of total sales, with a month-on-month increase of 8.5% and a year-on-year increase of 44.4% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August, the total sales reached 920.7 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 58.2% [1] Export Data - In August, the total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% but a year-on-year increase of 23.9% [2] - The export of power batteries in August was 15.1 GWh, which accounted for 66.6% of total exports, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [2] - From January to August, the cumulative export reached 173.1 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 48.5% [2] - The cumulative export of power batteries was 111.5 GWh, accounting for 64.4% of total exports, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3% [2]