白酒消费溃不成军，消费市场里，老登已经不那么重要。 白酒，这个承载着千年文化、浸润着我国社会基因的"液体黄金"，曾被视为宴席上的"硬通货"、商务谈判的敲门砖、人情往来的润滑剂，但今天，白酒却开 始走下神坛。 当时代的车轮驶入2025年，白酒行业正经历着前所未有的困境：库存堆积如山，价格倒挂严重，经销商含泪抛货，龙头企业高管们为"讨好"年轻人焦头烂 额。 曾经支撑白酒消费的主力军，"老登"逐渐退场，而年轻人对白酒的热情却日益冷却。白酒，这个曾经的"神坛之子"，如今正经历一场消费的溃败。 库存爆仓价格腰斩背后，为什么老登们集体不爱喝酒了？ 白酒的黄金时代，本质上还是建立在特定社会结构与消费文化之上的。老登作为白酒消费最核心的群体，其消费行为与时代背景紧密相连。 但随着多重因素的叠加，如今这一消费模式正在加速瓦解。 首先就是消费场景的萎缩，通俗来说就是，白酒从过去的刚需到今天的"被边缘化"。 白酒的传统消费场景高度依赖商务宴请、人情往来和婚宴庆典。但随着一纸禁令，以及职场文化的转变和消费观念的升级，这些白酒传统消费场景正在逐渐 萎缩。 另外高端白酒的"礼品属性"也开始被削弱。而职场中，酒桌文化也被越来越多年轻人反感 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional consumption patterns dominated by government and business to a new model that emphasizes personal enjoyment and self-consumption [3][4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry faced its worst quarterly performance in nearly a decade in Q3 2025, with Shanxi Fenjiu being one of the few companies to maintain growth [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu reported revenue of 32.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.41 billion yuan, up 0.5% [3]. Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is adapting its strategy in response to the changing market dynamics, focusing on both traditional and emerging markets while emphasizing youth and internationalization as key growth drivers [5]. - The company plans to launch a new low-alcohol product line, "Fenxiang Youth 28 Degrees," and expand its offerings in fruit, floral, and herbal flavors to attract younger and older consumers [5]. Consumer Behavior Insights - Consumer preferences are evolving, with a notable shift towards self-consumption and diverse drinking scenarios, which presents new challenges for liquor companies [6]. - A survey indicated that 70% of consumers are indifferent or even resistant to traditional marketing messages, preferring user-generated content and social media trends [5]. Market Trends - The liquor market is expected to see a coexistence of social drinking, self-enjoyment, and investment collection, with a focus on experiential and diversified consumption [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, while the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing strong growth, with products like Guo Fen from Shanxi Fenjiu showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in consumer preferences from "face consumption" to "substance consumption" [1][2]. Industry Overview - The market size of light bottle liquor has grown from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.8% from 2013 to 2021 [1][2]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies showing growth, with a reported revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [1][2]. Product Contribution - The Guo Fen product line has been a significant contributor to Shanxi Fenjiu's growth, with analysts noting that it achieved over 10% growth in the first three quarters, contrasting with the declining sales of many other products [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has attracted numerous companies to increase their investments in this segment, with brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao launching new products aimed at capturing market share [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Despite overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands. Traditional brands like Niulanshan are facing significant challenges, with reported revenue declines of nearly 20% year-on-year [4][5]. Consumer Trends - The shift in consumer behavior is evident, with younger consumers moving from luxury packaging to a focus on quality and cost-effectiveness, prompting companies to adapt their strategies to meet the demand for high-value products [3][6]. Future Outlook - The light bottle liquor segment is expected to continue expanding, but competition is intensifying, leading to a clear differentiation among brands. Companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions are likely to thrive [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the price of Moutai reflects a significant shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics, moving from a status symbol to a regular product, influenced by younger generations' preferences for casual drinking experiences over traditional high-end brands [1][11][19] Group 1: Price Decline and Market Dynamics - The wholesale price of 53-degree Moutai has dropped below 1600 yuan, marking a historical low, down from a peak of around 3000 yuan in late 2021, indicating a nearly 50% decrease in just four years [1][6][10] - Moutai's price decline is attributed to a combination of increased production capacity, changing consumption scenarios, and the impact of e-commerce platforms reshaping pricing structures [4][12][15] - The once high demand for Moutai as a "social currency" has diminished, with younger consumers favoring a more relaxed drinking culture, leading to a significant drop in sales and a shift in market perception [11][19] Group 2: Inventory and Production Challenges - Moutai's production capacity has expanded significantly, with 2023 output reaching 57,200 tons and projections for 2025 to reach 67,200 tons, resulting in an oversupply situation with approximately 700 million bottles available in the market [12][14][15] - The high inventory levels have created a vicious cycle of price drops, as distributors rush to sell off stock, further driving down prices [14][15] - The traditional consumption scenarios for Moutai, heavily reliant on government and high-end business banquets, have been negatively impacted by new regulations and changing corporate spending habits [12][15][18] Group 3: Industry-Wide Implications - The entire Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with significant inventory levels across various companies, indicating a broader market challenge beyond just Moutai [16][18] - Moutai's attempts to pivot towards more casual consumption and younger demographics have faced difficulties, as younger consumers show a preference for lower-alcohol beverages and different drinking experiences [18][19] - The shift in consumer behavior emphasizes the need for liquor companies to adapt to changing market demands, focusing on genuine consumption rather than speculative investment [19]