（来源：上观新闻） 怒江边的甫跃辉 第一次见甫跃辉，他没有喝酒。 那是二〇二一年五月，黄浦江畔，我撑一把雨伞，被黄昏咬着脚后跟，走不快。大都会码头的路面湿 滑，凉风扑面，我等到他，踩着木板跳上了船，两人都没有摔跤。船不错，是万小刀花"巨款"租的一艘 游艇。万小刀是我大哥，每年他赚了钱，都会呼朋引伴，一同游山玩水，聚一聚。聚一聚，自然要喝 酒。但是这一次，甫跃辉没有喝。 甫跃辉当时还在做编辑，戴眼镜，留长发，但也不是很长，半长不长，不及肩。我说头发很文艺，他笑 笑，说，等长篇写完再剪。我之前和他不相识，偶然看过他的访谈，说他每稿必复，是个有良心的，就 给他邮箱投稿，投到第三篇，终于过了审，这才让我加了微信。我看他头像是个小男孩，抱着个瓶子， 穿着过分清凉了，就说甫老师头像很酷啊，他也没有解释，只是发了个笑脸说，网上找的。这一年三 月，小说发表了，就是《黄昏鸟》。两个月后，我来上海，微信与他说，他很爽快。后来才知道，他住 松江，打车过来要两小时。 人聚齐，游艇启航。行至江心，夜色像丝绸一样垂下来，笼盖四野。雨仍在下着，隔着玻璃可见江面阔 大，开出一朵又一朵小花，远处外滩的灯火璀璨，东方明珠像一支发着光的巨笔，直插 ...

中国食品安全网讯（记者 谭妮妮）当拥有6000年酿造史的清香汾酒，遇见追求个性、健康与体验的Z世代，会碰撞出怎样的火花？在国潮奔涌、新消费勃兴 的时代背景下，作为"国酒之源、清香之祖、文化之根"的汾酒正以一场深刻而系统的"年轻化"变革，回应着这一命题。其答案的核心，并非简单的包装更迭 或营销狂欢，而是以"品质坚守 "为不可动摇的基石，以"产品创新"为关键切口，最终通向"品牌价值与消费者共生"的可持续发展之路，为行业提供了一 个"守正创新"的范本。 2025汾酒全球经销商大会 历史基因的现代表达 汾酒"清蒸二次清、一清到底"的传统工艺，本就蕴含着对纯净酒体的极致追求。如今，这一基因被转化为一套贯穿全产业链的现代化食品安全管控体系。从 高粱、大麦、豌豆的产地生态管控，到酿造、储存、灌装的全流程数字化溯源，每一瓶走向年轻消费者的汾酒，都可实现"从田间到舌尖"的透明追溯。在汾 酒国家级技术中心，检测项目远超国标，与国际权威标准接轨，确保每一滴酒都经得起最苛刻的检验。 系统战略与情感共鸣 汾酒的年轻化，并非单点突破，而是一套从产品到文化、从渠道到传播的系统工程。其最终目标，是实现品牌与年轻一代的价值共生与情感共鸣。 在 ...

Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on the "Old Bai Fen" product as a key growth driver during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming for significant market expansion in central, eastern, and southern China [1][2] - The company has set ambitious targets for its major products, including "Old Bai Fen," which is currently underperforming compared to its other series [1][2] - The management acknowledges the need for improvement in brand collaboration and market penetration for high-end products [3] Group 1 - "Old Bai Fen" is identified as a crucial growth area, with plans to enhance its market presence and achieve breakthrough expansion [1] - The company reported a decline in "Old Bai Fen" sales this year, but other products like "Glass Fen" have shown double-digit growth, helping maintain overall revenue growth [2] - The management emphasizes the importance of respecting market realities and consumer needs in the high-end liquor segment, which is facing supply-demand imbalances [2] Group 2 - For 2026, the company aims to implement "four continuous promotions" and "five unwavering commitments" to enhance its market strategy [3] - The management has identified four key areas for improvement, including brand synergy, market penetration of high-end products, aggressive category strategies, and optimization of distribution processes [3] - The "Zhuyeqing" brand is a significant part of the company's strategy, focusing on core consumer groups and product innovation [3][4] Group 3 - The main brand has initiated the "Fen Enjoy Youth" project, which includes the development of over ten new product designs aimed at younger consumers [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1][6] Core Insights - The company has established a solid foundation for steady growth, with effective order management and a focus on product innovation and market expansion [6] - The company aims to enhance its brand synergy and improve its marketing strategies to better adapt to market demands and consumer preferences [6] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected revenue growth and stable profit margins, despite some challenges in brand collaboration and market competition [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 36,011 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.8%, and is expected to grow to 40,011 million by 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12,243 million in 2024, remaining stable in 2025, and then increasing to 13,282 million by 2027 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 10.04 in 2024, with slight declines in 2025 and 2026, before rising to 10.89 in 2027 [2] Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining market order and channel management, which is expected to help it navigate through economic cycles effectively [6] - The stock's target price is set at 285 yuan, compared to the current price of 192.16 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [2][6] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to focus on four key areas: national expansion, youth engagement, internationalization, and precise consumer service [6] - Product innovation and marketing strategies will be enhanced to attract younger consumers and improve brand visibility [6] - The company is committed to maintaining market order and ensuring channel cooperation, which is crucial for sustaining growth in a competitive environment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of Shanxi Fenjiu's sales system, including the appointment of a dedicated chairman and the clarification of executive responsibilities, is a strategic response to previous governance issues and aims to enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness [2][10][19]. Management Changes - Zhang Yongyong has been appointed as the chairman of the Fenjiu Sales Company, with Qiao Yuxing as the general manager, marking a significant shift in the company's leadership structure [3][4]. - Both Zhang and Qiao have extensive experience within the Fenjiu system, having held various marketing and management positions over the years [4][5]. Historical Context - The previous leadership under Li Jun faced scrutiny due to allegations of corruption, leading to a lack of transparency and concentrated power within the sales company [5][9]. - Li Jun's absence from key meetings and subsequent investigation raised concerns about governance and operational integrity, prompting the need for structural changes [5][9]. Market Dynamics - Fenjiu has experienced rapid growth in recent years, but the market is shifting from expansion to managing existing inventory, creating pressure on sales channels [11][13]. - The company faces challenges such as high inventory levels and price fluctuations, which could impact its competitive positioning in the market [13][14]. Strategic Focus - The new leadership aims to shift the focus from rapid sales growth to improving inventory management and optimizing sales quality, addressing the structural issues that have emerged [14][15]. - The restructuring is seen as a proactive measure to stabilize the sales network and ensure sustainable growth amid changing market conditions [10][22]. Industry Context - The white liquor industry is entering a period of deep adjustment, with competition increasingly focused on channel control rather than brand promotion [18][19]. - The governance structure of state-owned liquor companies often involves a dual oversight mechanism, balancing political and market demands [19][20]. Future Outlook - The success of Fenjiu's restructuring will be critical in determining its ability to maintain price stability and brand value, especially in the southern markets where consumer preferences are still developing [22]. - The company's ability to manage inventory while supporting high-end product pricing will be a key indicator of the effectiveness of the recent governance changes [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, while the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing strong growth, with products like Guo Fen from Shanxi Fenjiu showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in consumer preferences from "face consumption" to "substance consumption" [1][2]. Industry Overview - The market size of light bottle liquor has grown from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.8% from 2013 to 2021 [1][2]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies showing growth, with a reported revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [1][2]. Product Contribution - The Guo Fen product line has been a significant contributor to Shanxi Fenjiu's growth, with analysts noting that it achieved over 10% growth in the first three quarters, contrasting with the declining sales of many other products [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has attracted numerous companies to increase their investments in this segment, with brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao launching new products aimed at capturing market share [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Despite overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands. Traditional brands like Niulanshan are facing significant challenges, with reported revenue declines of nearly 20% year-on-year [4][5]. Consumer Trends - The shift in consumer behavior is evident, with younger consumers moving from luxury packaging to a focus on quality and cost-effectiveness, prompting companies to adapt their strategies to meet the demand for high-value products [3][6]. Future Outlook - The light bottle liquor segment is expected to continue expanding, but competition is intensifying, leading to a clear differentiation among brands. Companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions are likely to thrive [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is declining, with only a few companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showing slight growth, while the majority face significant revenue drops [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the third quarter of 2025, 20 listed baijiu companies reported their earnings, with only Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving minor increases, while 18 others experienced varying degrees of decline [1]. - The baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to changing consumer environments and high channel inventories [1]. Market Trends - Despite the overall downturn, the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing robust growth, with products like Shanxi Fenjiu's Guo Fen showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters [1][5]. - The market size of light bottle liquor has expanded from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections indicating it will surpass 200 billion yuan in 2025 [1][5]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [2]. - The growth in Shanxi Fenjiu's performance is attributed to its light bottle products, particularly Guo Fen, which has shown significant sales increases [2][5]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has prompted many liquor companies to increase their investments in this segment, with notable entries from Yanghe and other brands [6][8]. - Analysts indicate a shift in consumer preferences from luxury packaging to quality and cost-effectiveness, driving the growth of light bottle liquor [8]. Market Challenges - Despite the overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands, with traditional brands like Niulanshan facing severe challenges [10][12]. - Niulanshan's revenue dropped by 19.79% to 5.869 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net profit decline of 79.85% [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many companies facing challenges due to changing consumer habits and market dynamics [13][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 8.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.899 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year [2][4] - The performance of the Qinghua 20 and Glass Fen products was strong, with significant growth in the out-of-province market. The company adjusted its product structure and sales strategy in response to economic conditions [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve low single-digit revenue growth for the full year, with profit growth remaining flat. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 12.302 billion, 12.899 billion, and 13.647 billion yuan, respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and profit increased by 5.0% and 0.48% year-on-year, respectively. The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 4.05% but a profit decrease of 1.38% [4][5] - The sales net profit margin for the first three quarters was 34.78%, down 1.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 76.10%, up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 31.928 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, and net profit at 10.438 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [8][9] Product and Market Analysis - The company’s product lines include strong performers like Glass Fen and Qinghua series, with the Qinghua 20 showing double-digit growth. However, the Qinghua 30 experienced a significant decline [4][5] - In terms of regional performance, the company saw a 7.52% decrease in revenue from the domestic market for the first three quarters, while the out-of-province market grew by 12.72% [4][5] Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 10.08 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.9, 18.0, and 17.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 37.0% in 2023 to 22.3% by 2027 [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company demonstrates robust performance with resilience, particularly highlighted by strong performance in markets outside its home province [4][5] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 32.924 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.405 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is effectively managing costs, with a gross margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 74.63% in Q3 2025 [5] - The product matrix is diversified, with significant growth in direct sales through group purchases and e-commerce channels [6] - The company is expanding its distribution network outside its home province, with a notable 31% increase in revenue from these regions in Q3 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total revenue was 8.960 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 1% to 2.899 billion yuan [4][5] - The company reported a decrease in sales collections by 3% to 8.343 billion yuan, with contract liabilities increasing by 5% to 5.781 billion yuan [5] Product and Market Strategy - The company has established a multi-tiered product system, with revenue from its flagship products showing a 5% increase, while other alcoholic products saw a 29% decline [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in southern markets, which is part of its national strategy [7] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 9.95, 10.57, and 11.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 18, and 17 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [4] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 8.96 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4% [1] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 32.92 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 11.40 billion yuan, an increase of 0.5% [1] - The report indicates that the company’s gross margin slightly increased to 74.6%, while net margin decreased to 32.7% due to fluctuations in tax rates [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue from Fenjiu was 8.8 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a decline of 28.6% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, cumulative revenue growth for Fenjiu was 5.5%, while other liquor categories experienced a decline of 15.9% [2] - The report forecasts diluted EPS for 2025-2027 to be 9.85, 10.14, and 10.69 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.1, 18.5, and 17.6 times [2][3] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company’s operating income for 2023A was 31.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A was 10.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025E is 12.02 billion yuan, indicating a decline of 1.8% year-on-year [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue from the domestic market, which fell by 35.2% in Q3 2025, while revenue from outside the province grew by 31.1% [2] - The company is focusing on inventory reduction in the domestic market, while growth in the external market is attributed to mid-to-low-end products [2]