Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on quality-driven growth in the Chinese liquor market, particularly in the clear aroma liquor segment, which is aiming for a 20% market share. This strategy is supported by systematic practices in raw material control, process innovation, and full-chain standards [2][11]. Group 1: Quality Control and Raw Material Strategy - The company has established its "first workshop" for liquor production in the barley golden production area at 45°N latitude, emphasizing the importance of quality in the liquor market [2]. - The core process of the company relies on high-quality Daqu, with barley being a key raw material that influences fermentation efficiency and flavor transformation [4][6]. - The company has locked in its barley seed base in Qitai County, Xinjiang, recognized as a "barley hometown," combining 4,000 years of agricultural history with modern breeding techniques to ensure raw material quality [4][6]. Group 2: Innovation in Barley Varieties - In 2024, the company will launch a customized barley variety, "Fenjiu Barley No. 1," developed in collaboration with agricultural research institutions, which shows a 15% yield increase and a 20% improvement in saccharification efficiency [6][7]. - The new barley variety is designed to meet the specific needs of clear aroma liquor production, enhancing the flavor profile and fermentation process [6][7]. Group 3: Integrated Supply Chain Management - The company has established approximately 1.4 million acres of raw material bases across several provinces, ensuring the uniformity of raw material quality through a standardized management model [8][9]. - The management model includes land registration and unified standards for planting, management, procurement, storage, and transportation, ensuring high-quality raw materials for liquor production [9]. Group 4: Industry Leadership and Future Outlook - The company has achieved significant revenue growth and aims to maintain its position among the top players in the liquor industry, focusing on high-quality development and brand value enhancement [11][15]. - The company is positioned to lead the revival of the clear aroma liquor segment, with high-end products like Qinghua 30 and Qinghua 40 expected to drive brand value and market growth [15].

Summary of Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily focused on the **yellow wine** and **white wine** industries, with specific references to companies such as **Kuai Jie Shan** and **Shen Zhou** [1][2][4][9]. Key Points and Arguments Yellow Wine - The yellow wine sector has seen a continuous increase, with **Kuai Jie Shan** as a notable example of this trend [1]. - There is a consensus that while there may be some capital market divergences, the overall sentiment towards yellow wine stocks is relatively positive [1]. - The long-term logic for investment in yellow wine remains intact, with companies demonstrating strong brand management and industry understanding [2]. White Wine - Recent events in the white wine sector include shareholder meetings where companies like **Fen Jiu** and **Mao Tai** have ceased providing alcoholic beverages, raising concerns about public consumption and potential impacts on high-end consumption [4][5]. - The impact of anti-corruption measures on public consumption is acknowledged, but the actual effect on white wine consumption is deemed minimal [6]. - The white wine industry is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn, with business activities under pressure, leading to a general consumption slump [7]. - Companies are expected to adjust their supply to match demand, mitigating risks of significant price drops [8]. - Despite current challenges, the valuation of white wine stocks is considered reasonable, with high dividend yields suggesting potential investment opportunities [15]. Company-Specific Insights - **Shen Zhou** has maintained a positive outlook during its shareholder meeting, indicating confidence in market conditions and future growth [9][10]. - The company plans to introduce new products and maintain a balanced allocation of resources across different price segments [10][12]. - There is a focus on expanding market presence through a "nationalization 2.0" strategy, emphasizing local market growth and brand accumulation [13]. - The management is optimistic about achieving double-digit growth in the second quarter, particularly in local markets [13]. Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment in the white wine market is currently pessimistic, but the low valuations and high dividend yields present a potential for recovery [15]. - Companies are encouraged to focus on high-end products and maintain stable pricing strategies to navigate the current market environment [14]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion highlighted the importance of adapting to market conditions and consumer preferences, with companies actively exploring new product lines and marketing strategies [16][18]. - The impact of raw material costs on profit margins was noted, with a focus on cost control and efficiency improvements [17]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the yellow and white wine industries and specific company strategies.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory with a target price of RMB 210.00, while the current price is RMB 176.39 [2]. Core Views - The company is entering the second phase of its revitalization program, focusing on stability and quality of earnings rather than aggressive growth targets. The strategy includes controlling the volume of certain products and expanding others to cover the entire price range [3][13]. - The baijiu industry is currently in a rebalancing phase, transitioning from government reliance to business and personal consumption, supported by recent consumer policies [12][13]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.1% in revenue and 45.5% in net profit from 2015 to 2023, securing a top-three position in the industry for revenue in 2024 [13]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin increased from 67.4% to 76.2% and net profit margin from 9.1% to 34.0% from 2014 to 2024, indicating strong profitability [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is reported at 35.2%, the highest among baijiu companies, showcasing robust financial health [14]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 37.9 billion, with net profit expected to reach RMB 12.8 billion, corresponding to an EPS of RMB 10.5 [15]. Market Strategy - The company aims to increase its revenue share from outside its home province to over 65% by 2025, focusing on high-end marketing strategies in key regions [4][14]. - The company plans to launch new products and enhance existing ones to drive growth in both domestic and provincial markets [4][14].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu held an online performance briefing for Q1 2025, highlighting its growth strategies and financial performance [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu reported revenue of 16.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.648 billion yuan, up 6.15% year-on-year [5]. Strategic Focus - The company is advancing its annual marketing plan and aims for steady growth through strategies focused on regional sales, product volume increases, and profit growth [6]. - The company is implementing a product strategy that includes controlling the volume of "Glass Fen" and increasing the volume of "Old White Fen" and "Qinghua 20" [6]. Industry Trends - The white liquor industry is experiencing a trend where consumption is concentrating on quality, production capacity is focusing on specific regions, and market share is consolidating around well-known brands [6][12]. - The consensus in the industry is to maintain stability in the market, channels, and prices [12]. Growth Initiatives - Shanxi Fenjiu is launching the second phase of its revival program (2025-2030), focusing on national expansion 2.0, youth-oriented strategies 1.0, and internationalization 1.0 [6][8]. - The company aims to enhance its brand strategy and market positioning, particularly for the "Qinghua Fen" series and "Bamboo Leaf Green" targeting the silver-haired market [6][7]. Internationalization Strategy - The company has elevated internationalization to a strategic level, aiming to enhance brand innovation and management through global market competition [10]. - The goal is to establish a strong presence in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on the Yangtze River Delta and southern China for future growth [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][53]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.06% last week, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.02 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [4][9]. - The liquor segment is in a bottoming phase, with a focus on leading companies for recovery. The impact of recent "alcohol bans" is expected to be limited, as business banquets and personal consumption remain the primary drivers of demand [4][9]. - The beer sector is showing signs of improvement as the peak consumption season approaches, with April production figures indicating a 4.8% year-on-year increase [4][23]. - The snack segment is characterized by high growth potential, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels [4]. - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize as upstream production capacity adjusts, with milk prices anticipated to recover gradually [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 1.06%, with soft drinks showing a notable increase of 9.27% [4][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Junyao Health and Kweichow Moutai, with gains of 38.58% and 32.17% respectively [4][9]. 2. Key Consumer Products and Raw Material Prices 2.1 Liquor Prices - As of June 1, 2025, the price for 2024 Moutai (bottle) is 2,070 CNY, down 50 CNY from the previous month [18]. 2.2 Beer Data - April production for major beer companies reached 2.896 million kiloliters, a 4.8% increase year-on-year [23]. 2.3 Upstream Raw Material Data - As of May 30, 2025, the price of fresh milk is 12.17 CNY per liter, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.49% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Significant growth in wine sales was reported during the JD 618 shopping festival, with red wine sales increasing by 200% year-on-year [50]. - Guangdong province's beer production increased by 1.3% in the first four months of 2025 [50]. 4. Core Company Dynamics - Fuling Zhacai announced a cash dividend of 4.20 CNY per share, totaling 4.85 billion CNY [52]. - Haitian Flavoring announced a cash dividend of 8.60 CNY per share, totaling 47.73 billion CNY [52].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.72%, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, which is a 6.15% increase year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 26.532 billion yuan and 9.342 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [1] - Revenue from the domestic market reached 13.500 billion yuan, while the revenue from the external market was 22.374 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [1] - The number of distributors increased significantly, with 835 in the domestic market and 3,718 in the external market, net additions of 15 and 598 respectively compared to the end of 2023 [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix improvements [2] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance were 10.35%, 4.02%, 0.41%, and -0.03% respectively, with slight increases year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 34.00%, up 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2] Growth Potential and Market Strategy - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, and positive growth in Q1 2025, reflecting strong brand equity and growth momentum [3] - The product strategy focuses on enhancing the "Qinghua" series, strengthening mid-tier products, and maintaining the market position of "Guangping" liquor [3] - The company is expanding its market presence, particularly in southern regions, by targeting county-level markets and focusing on core distributors to increase terminal numbers [3] Investment Outlook - Based on the operational performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 13.63 billion yuan, 15.11 billion yuan, and 16.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.4%, 10.8%, and 10.4% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu aims to maintain steady growth in revenue amidst a low-growth environment in the liquor industry, with a focus on internationalization as a key future direction [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.01 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, marking a historical high and ranking third in the liquor industry [2]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenues of 16.52 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7.72% and 6.15%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Growth Strategy - The company plans to continue its steady growth trajectory, emphasizing the importance of high-end product sales as a key driver [3]. - In 2023, revenue from mid-to-high-priced liquor reached 26.532 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.35%, primarily due to the increased share of the Qinghua Fenjiu series [3]. Group 3: Product Development - Shanxi Fenjiu's product strategy for 2024 focuses on four key product lines: Qinghua 30 and its combinations, Qinghua 20, Bolifen, and Laobai Fen, with a strategy of controlled volume for Bolifen and increased sales for Laobai Fen [3][4]. - The company introduced a new product, Qinghua Fenjiu 26·Revival, to fill the price gap between 600 and 800 yuan, enhancing its product matrix [4]. Group 4: Internationalization Efforts - The management highlighted that international markets will be a significant breakthrough for the liquor industry, with a focus on high-quality overseas expansion [5]. - The company has successfully filled market gaps in 11 countries, with liquor export revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year, and organized over 700 promotional events internationally [5].

Core Viewpoint - Both Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are focusing on national expansion while maintaining strong positions in their respective home markets, with an emphasis on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing brand appeal among younger consumers [2][4]. Group 1: National Expansion Strategies - Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue from markets outside Shanxi is projected to exceed 62% in 2024, with a faster growth rate compared to its home province, adding 598 new distributors outside Shanxi [2][5]. - Fenjiu is targeting the southern markets, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, by refining channel strategies and focusing on core distributors [3]. - Gujing Gongjiu has achieved a national coverage rate of over 70%, with a 6:4 revenue structure between domestic and provincial markets, aiming to create scale in provincial markets [3]. Group 2: Youth Engagement and Product Strategy - Fenjiu is launching a "Young Fenjiu" initiative starting in 2025, focusing on seven aspects of youth engagement, including product aesthetics and cultural expression [4]. - Gujing Gongjiu is implementing a "White Liquor+" strategy, enhancing consumer experiences and developing innovative products to cater to younger demographics [4]. - Gujing Gongjiu continues to focus on a mid-to-high-end strategy, expanding its product range to meet diverse consumer price preferences [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Both companies have refrained from setting specific growth targets for the upcoming year, citing a shift from rapid growth to structural growth in the industry [5]. - The white liquor industry is facing challenges such as oversupply, high inventory, and intense competition, leading to a consensus on slower growth [5]. - Fenjiu holds approximately one-third market share in the clear aroma segment but currently has no plans for major asset restructuring or acquisitions [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu aims to stabilize growth and enhance product structure through strategic adjustments and market segmentation, focusing on maintaining a reasonable growth target rather than merely increasing sales figures [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 12.79% to 36.011 billion yuan and a net profit rise of 17.29% to 12.243 billion yuan [2]. - Revenue from high-end liquor (priced at 130 yuan per liter and above) grew by 14.35% to 26.532 billion yuan, while revenue from other liquor categories (priced below 130 yuan) increased by 9.40% to 9.342 billion yuan [2]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on the "青花" (Qinghua) series, with plans to complete the replacement of old and new products by the end of Q2 2024, aiming for a seamless transition in the market [3][4]. - The resource allocation strategy for the "四轮驱动" (Four-Wheel Drive) approach distributes resources among different product lines, with a focus on increasing the market presence of "老白汾" (Old Bai Fen) and "青花26" (Qinghua 26) [4][5]. Market Expansion - The company is expanding its dealer network, with the number of provincial dealers increasing from 642 in 2019 to 835 in 2024, and the number of provincial dealers rising from 1,847 to 3,718 in the same period [7]. - The revenue from provincial markets increased by 11.72% to 13.5 billion yuan, while revenue from non-provincial markets grew by 13.81% to 22.374 billion yuan [6][7]. Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Shanxi Fenjiu is implementing a new marketing strategy that includes performance incentives based on both shipment volume and bottle opening rates, alongside targeted consumer promotions [8][9]. - The company is focusing on digital marketing and precise expense management to enhance operational efficiency and market penetration [9].

导 语：泸州老窖确定的2025年目标并不算高，仅为维持正增长。 "高调"停货的背后 在2024年财报发布的三天前，也是国窖1573高度酒跌到840元之际，泸州老窖（000568.SZ）开始全 品系停货。 在每年最大的消费旺季——春节前压一波库存、完成公司业绩增长的目标之后，酒企往往于淡季停 止发货。停货的目的，消化积压库存的同时稳定价格体系，这属于业内常规操作模式。 停货之前，无论是3个月左右的渠道库存还是今年一季度的发货量，均已维持在不算低的水位。因 此在4月底发出停货指令，也是应有之义，本身并不值得过度关注。 但"宣告"停货的动作，可以看作是一种渠道精细化管理的手段。 泸州老窖董事长刘淼与总经理林峰，是泸州老窖的核心人物。二人均是出身销售一线的营销高手， 都出任过老窖销售公司总经理，其中林峰还担任过泸州老窖营销总监。 多年来，二人搭班联合主政泸州老窖的销售体系，帮助泸州老窖在2016年-2021年行业景气周期中超额 增长。当然，他们也在这一轮行业下行周期中，承受着保业绩增长的巨大压力。 | | 国窖系列 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 昌名 | 散瓶行情 | 涨跌 | | 52度国容1 ...