Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market mostly expects the steel market to remain stable after the holiday. The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed up, and closed down at night [1] Important Information - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [1] - In late January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons (8.8%) from the previous ten - day period; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.57 million tons (4.0%) compared with the same ten - day period of last month; a decrease of 0.64 million tons (4.2%) compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 2.51 million tons (20.6%) compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [1] - In January, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 733.1 billion yuan [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,700 tons (0.4%); the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 592,400 tons (4.6%); the weekly consumption of five major products was 7.6066 million tons, a decrease of 5.1%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 16.6% month - on - month, and the consumption of plates increased by 0.1% month - on - month [1] Market Logic - The supply and demand of steel decreased in this period. As the holiday approaches, the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are gradually on holiday. The inventory continues to increase, and the winter storage intensity this year is significantly weaker than in previous years. The market for steel after the holiday is mostly expected to be stable. The disk trend depends on sentiment and funds [1] Trading Strategy - The pre - holiday steel market shows an oscillatory trend. Maintaining the previous view, 3050 for rebar is still a strong support. It is recommended to carefully layout short - term long positions between 3050 - 3100 and set stop - losses [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that the domestic refineries' asphalt production is decreasing, which reduces supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost side has the support of rising crude oil prices in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 in the short - term [8][9]. - The factors are mixed. The positives include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support and the reduction of supply pressure due to refinery production cuts. The negatives are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' asphalt production is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of the sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 214,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%. The sample enterprises' production is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed - coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On January 30th, the Shandong spot price is 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 03 - contract basis is - 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. The port diluted - asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 03 - contract futures price closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [9]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. Crude oil strengthens, and cost support strengthens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Overview**: The report provides the price, change, and change rate of different asphalt contracts (such as 12 - contract, 11 - contract, etc.), as well as the price, change, and change rate of asphalt in different regions (such as North China, South China, etc.), downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data [16]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude - oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [40][42]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [43][44]. - **Diluted - Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted - asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: It shows the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65]. - **Social Inventory and Refinery Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Refinery Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2019 to 2026 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of apparent asphalt consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It shows the year - on - year change trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and road - roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [96][97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [99][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, shoe - material TPR capacity utilization rate, road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, and waterproofing - membrane capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2026 [102][103][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly asphalt production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted - asphalt port inventory from October 2024 to January 2026 [106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, the downstream replenishment rhythm is average, the spot market of coal and coke has a weak rebound, and individual coal types have turned down. The futures market lacks upward drivers, so it is necessary to operate cautiously [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - This week, ferrous metals generally declined, and the prices of coal and coke futures led the decline. The night session yesterday continued the weak trend; the spot market was stable after rising, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal turned down this week, with a decline of 45 yuan/ton [2] Production Data - In December 2025, the coke output was 42.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%; the annual cumulative output was 502.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.34%, and the output hit a new historical high [2] Supply Side - The overall supply of coal is relatively strong. After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.978 million tons and 768,000 tons respectively (the statistical sample increased). The raw coal at the mine end continued to increase in inventory, and the clean coal inventory was further depleted. On the import side, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 1.958 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 312,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 488,000 tons, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level [2] Demand Side - The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, rising to about 40%; the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly last week, mainly due to maintenance. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 35,300 tons [2]

Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 85.34% (+5.71%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.43 million tons (+4.42). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 35.42% (+0.33%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 26.12 million tons (+0.31). The operating rate and daily average output of mines increased month-on-month, as did the capacity utilization rate and clean coal output of coal washing plants. After the import surge of Mongolian coal at the beginning of the year, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high last week, and overall supply increased [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons (+2.07), the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31% (+0.37%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.8 days (-0.08), and those in 230 independent coking plants were 13.68 days (+0.07). The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills continued to rise, the daily output of molten iron increased month-on-month, the available days of coking coal in steel mills slightly decreased, and those in coking plants slightly increased. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.9501 million tons (+1.67), that of all sample independent coking plants was 10.7168 million tons (+19.18), that of steel mills was 7.9773 million tons (-4.54), that of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.1965 million tons (-9.36), and that of major ports was 2.998 million tons (-1.5). Currently, the inventories of coking coal mines and coking plants have slightly accumulated, while those of coal washing plants, ports, and steel mills have slightly decreased, and the purchasing sentiment has weakened [4]. - Summary: Last week, the supply and demand of the coking coal market both increased. Affected by positive factors such as the warming of macro - sentiment and the reduction of production capacity in production areas, the futures market rebounded from a low level. Previously shut - down coal mines gradually resumed production, and the operating rate of mines in the main production areas was 85.34%. Domestic supply gradually recovered. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal imports remained at a high level in the new year. On the demand side, the daily output of molten iron continued to rise, and the coke output remained stable for the time being. Coking and steel plants still mainly engaged in rigid procurement, and there was no large - scale centralized restocking. Overall, domestic coal mines have returned to normal production, imports remain at a high level year - on - year, supply has increased, while downstream coking and steel enterprises have poor profitability, and there is no large - scale centralized restocking. The market generally maintains a low - level shock [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (-31), the capacity utilization rate of all sample independent coking plants was 72.69% (+0.97%), the daily output of all sample independent coking plants was 635,700 tons (+0.85), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 468,800 tons (+0.05). The loss of the average profit per ton of coke in coking plants continued to expand, and there was still an expectation of a fifth - round price cut for coke, putting pressure on coking profits. However, overall production remained stable for the time being. The main reason was that the sales situation had improved recently, some coking enterprises increased production, and the coke output of steel mills slightly increased [5]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons (+2.07), the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31% (+0.37), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.02 days (-0.08). The daily output of molten iron continued to rise, the blast furnace operating rate continued to increase, the inventory usage cycle of steel mills' coke slightly decreased, and there was a rigid demand for coke [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all sample independent coking plants was 860,700 tons (-5.53), that of major ports was 1.841 million tons (+4.01), and that of 247 steel mills was 6.4573 million tons (+1.74). The inventory of coking plants slightly decreased, while those of steel mills and ports slightly increased, and the overall social inventory of coke slightly increased [5]. - Summary: In terms of supply, the overall production level of coking enterprises remained stable for the time being. Due to the improved sales situation, some coking enterprises increased production. Coupled with the increase in the coke output of steel mills, the overall supply slightly increased. In terms of demand, the profitability of steel mills has improved, the resumption of blast furnaces has increased, the daily output of molten iron from steel mills has risen, and steel mills have a rigid demand for coke. Overall, the current supply and demand of coke both increased. Recently, the strengthening of raw materials supported the futures market to be relatively strong, but the market still has an expectation of a fifth - round price cut. It is expected that the futures market will follow and maintain a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the winter storage restocking demand [5]. Macro - Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) [7][11][15][19] Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data such as the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis of coking coal futures contracts, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the inventories of 314 sample coal washing plants, 523 sample mines, 247 steel mills, and all sample independent coking plants, the port coking coal inventory, the available days of coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants nationwide, and the customs clearance vehicle numbers of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port [22][26][32] Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks data including the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis of coke futures contracts, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventories of all sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, and port coke, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills [60][62][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rally signal has boosted bullish sentiment, causing the market to continue rising. It is not recommended to increase positions, and full profit - taking can be considered. Attention should be paid to the freight rates in November. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. For long - term strategies, it is advisable to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Freight Rate Index - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1267.15 points, up 14.4% from the previous period. On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, up 12.60% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 965.62 points, up 17.43% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% from the previous period. Also on October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, up 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1323.81 points, up 2.4% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 772.67 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5. In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The preliminary US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2][3]. Policy and Trade Information - The China - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2][3][4]. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers who were advised to build positions below 1500 in the EC2512 contract (with a profit of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is advisable to take profits when prices rise for each contract, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. Market Conditions - On November 5, the main contract 2512 closed at 1946.0, up 4.08%, with a trading volume of 4.12 million lots and an open interest of 34,100 lots, an increase of 3157 lots from the previous day. The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFI has risen significantly, but the end - of - month freight rates are still slightly down, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [3]. - In the short - term, the main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - loss [3]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, and then wait for the correction to stabilize before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period. On October 17, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI**: On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 11936 USD/FEU, up 31.9% from the previous period [2]. - **CCFI**: On October 17, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - **China**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - **US**: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [2]. Tariff and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has a slight decline, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [3]. Futures Market - On October 17, the main contract 2512 closed at 1654.7, down 0.5%, with a trading volume of 2.98 million lots and an open interest of 2.57 million lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical Situation - There are continuous conflicts in the Israel - Palestine region. On October 19, armed personnel in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip fired anti - tank missiles and opened fire on the Israeli army. The Israeli army launched air strikes and shelling in the Rafah area and also attacked the Deir al - Balah area in the central Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to take tough actions in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli senior officials expect more air strikes in the Gaza Strip [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market has a risk of price - cutting recently, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. Contract 12 has a relatively high - neutral valuation and may decline more in the short term. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers. Contract 02 has a higher cost - performance for long - positions compared to 12, and contract 04 has a high valuation, is suitable for short - positions in the short term but has low liquidity [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1105.9 with a - 0.34% change; EC2512 at 1645.3 with a - 1.60% change; EC2602 at 1566.1 with a - 0.80% change; EC2604 at 1255.2 with a - 2.52% change; EC2606 at 1453.5 with a - 1.03% change [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: EC2510 had a trading volume of 19585 and an open interest of 47173 with a change of - 2436; EC2512 had a volume of 9304 and an open interest of 20570 with a change of 183; EC2602 had a volume of 1549 and an open interest of 7215 with a change of 110; EC2604 had a volume of 1289 and an open interest of 8534 with a change of 200; EC2606 had a volume of 68 and an open interest change of 12 [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 539.4, with a day - on - day increase of 22.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 86.8; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 79.2, with a day - on - day decrease of 14.0 and a week - on - week decrease of 30.2 [2]. Spot Index Information - **SCFIS (European Line)**: As of 2025/9/15, it was 0, down 100.00% from the previous period and - 11.68% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI**: As of 2025/9/12, it was 1154 dollars/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period and - 11.21% from two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI**: As of 2025/9/12, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.19% from the previous period and - 2.79% from two periods ago [2]. - **NCFI**: As of 2025/9/12, it was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period and - 7.92% from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 39**: The average quotation was 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points). MSK was initially 1500 dollars and then rose to 1570 dollars, PA Alliance was 1550 - 1600 dollars, and OA Alliance was 1600 - 1720 dollars [3]. - **Week 40**: The average was 1525 dollars (equivalent to 1060 points). MSK opened at 1400 dollars, OOCL dropped to 1500 - 1550 dollars, and YML dropped to 1400 dollars [3]. - **Week 41**: MSK quoted 1400 dollars [3]. - **Thursday**: YML lowered the freight rates for Week 39 - 41 to 1300 dollars, the lowest of the year, equivalent to about 900 points. CMA dropped 100 dollars to 1600 dollars, and EMC quoted 1500 dollars for Week 40 [3]. News - On September 19, a Hamas senior official stated that the organization would not conduct negotiations currently due to Israel's continuous attacks. On the same day, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a cease - fire in Gaza [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view is that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The previous trading day saw a rebound in Shanghai zinc with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the reduction of short positions being slightly more. Technically, the price is above the 60 - day moving average with weak support, short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, long - position strength is rising, short - position strength is falling, and the long - short forces are starting to be in a stalemate [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22240, and the basis is - 35, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 68075 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 503 tons to 32791 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation. The LME inventory warrants continue to decrease, and the SHFE warrants remain at a high level [2][6][7]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating rebound trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main net position is long, changing from short to long, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on August 22 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, there were price changes. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22285, the opening price was 22215, the highest price was 22290, the lowest price was 22200, the settlement reference price was 22245, down 10 from the previous settlement and down 40 from another reference. The trading volume was 88662 lots, and the open interest was 107792 lots, a decrease of 2634 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on August 22 - The prices of various zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, etc. showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Aoshang was 22240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 11 - 21, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 99000 tons on August 11 to 117400 tons on August 21. Compared with August 14, it increased by 7200 tons; compared with August 18, it increased by 2300 tons [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on August 22 - The total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 32791 tons, an increase of 503 tons. In different regions, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 475 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 978 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 22 - The LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 41825 tons and a cancelled warrant of 26250 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 38.56% [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 22 - The prices of zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, etc. mostly decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with the price in most regions being 16930 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 22 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters such as Chengshan Yunda, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc. all decreased by 30 yuan/ton [13]. 3.13 June 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - The planned production value in June was 459700 tons, the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470300 tons [15]. 3.14 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 22 - For the zn2510 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (23380 lots, a decrease of 512 lots), Dongzheng Futures (21436 lots, a decrease of 359 lots), and Guotai Junan (16197 lots, a decrease of 2421 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (15360 lots, a decrease of 633 lots), Guotai Junan (5620 lots, an increase of 70 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (5377 lots, a decrease of 66 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (11446 lots, an increase of 93 lots), Dongzheng Futures (8542 lots, a decrease of 790 lots), and Guotai Junan (7752 lots, an increase of 73 lots) [18].