Report Title - Commodity Strategy Weekly Report: August 18, 2025 - Oscillating and Waiting for the Wind [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the past week, as anti - involution varieties cooled down and volatility decreased, the market was fully digested, and the willpower of the remaining funds became more resolute, which is beneficial for the next round of market. The release of short - selling sentiment in non - anti - involution varieties also cleared some obstacles for the anti - involution varieties [3][5] - In the short term, it is bearish, and in the long term, it is bullish. The short - term bearish mainly shows as oscillating consolidation, and the anti - involution theme market is a long - term layout [4][5] - The short - selling power mainly comes from energy - related varieties due to the overall weakness of crude oil, but the overall valuation of these varieties is not high, and the space for further price decline is limited, so the short - selling power may soon turn from attack to defense [4] - In specific sector varieties, the outlook for oils and fats and black metals is bullish [3] Summary by Directory Market Situation - The anti - involution theme, affected by measures such as position limits and fee increases, has cooled down on the surface, and the hotspots have shifted to the hidden. Only after the short - selling power in the market is fully released will there be a smooth upward trend. Currently, the trading volume of leading varieties has decreased, along with the activity and capacity of funds. Polysilicon and coking coal were in a narrow - range oscillating consolidation stage this week [4] Sector and Variety Data Plate Fund Flow - The total capital is 9.883 billion. Among them, precious metals had an outflow of 2.292 billion (- 40.4%), non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 2.159 billion (36.5%), black metals had an inflow of 968 million (21.6%), energy had an outflow of 428 million (- 28.7%), chemicals had an inflow of 141 million (4.4%), feed and breeding had an outflow of 782 million (- 37.5%), oils and fats had an inflow of 823 million (18.3%), and soft commodities had an inflow of 76 million (4.6%) [9] Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 19.1%, and the inventory percentile is 60.5% [9] Energy and Chemical Weekly Data - Similar data is provided for energy and chemical varieties such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For example, the price percentile of fuel oil is 2.8%, and the inventory percentile is 48.7% [11] Agricultural Products Weekly Data - Data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 5.8%, and the inventory percentile is 29.2% [12]

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook on the market [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in the market is a technical adjustment due to delivery and position - limit measures, not the end of the anti - involution theme market, with a relatively large adjustment amplitude. The market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [3][5] - The feed sector is expected to be bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Week Market Data Overview - Anti - involution varieties fluctuated sharply last week. Due to concentrated capital inflows and slow position transfers of the main contracts, the exchange introduced position - limit measures, leading to a sharp decline in the main contracts as liquidity suddenly flowed out. The 09 contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal led the decline. However, the anti - involution theme is a long - term policy strategy. Although some varieties have high inventories, the probability of prices falling back to the June lows is extremely low. The market recognizes the anti - involution policy, but the high positions in the near - term contracts forced the exchange to take measures to resolve potential delivery risks. Additionally, soybean meal has deviated from the decline of US soybeans recently [4] Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow was 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed and breeding, and soft commodities sectors all had capital outflows, while the oil and fat sector had a capital inflow of 646 million yuan [8] - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 18.7%, and the inventory percentile is 42.6% [8] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: The table presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.9%, and the inventory percentile is 43.7% [10] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of agricultural products, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 3.4%, and the inventory percentile is 32.0% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a volatile trading pattern characterized by sharp rises followed by declines, indicating a consolidation phase rather than a clear trend direction [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold has shown a pattern of rising and then falling back, with a notable drop from a high of 3450 to a low of 3365, reflecting a fluctuation of 100 USD [5][6]. - The current trading strategy suggests a short-term approach, with a focus on both bullish and bearish opportunities, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook [5][6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3365 and 3350, while resistance levels are at 3405, 3430, and 3450, with a potential target of 3500 if the upward trend continues [5][6][7]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - International silver has seen a breakout above the previous high of 37, reaching a maximum of 37.2, but the overall upward movement is limited [7]. - The domestic silver market remains strong, but there is caution against pursuing long positions due to the uncertainty of further price increases [7]. - The strategy for silver suggests either avoiding trades or taking light short positions, with a focus on observing market trends for potential reversals [7]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has rebounded from a low of 69.3 to 74.5, indicating a strong bullish trend, with support identified around 73 [8]. - The domestic fuel oil market has shown resilience, with a recent low of 3011 and a subsequent rise to 3180, suggesting continued bullish sentiment [8]. - Future opportunities for oil trading are anticipated around the 3050 mark, with short-term targets set at 3250 and long-term expectations reaching 3400 [8].