Report Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook on the market [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in the market is a technical adjustment due to delivery and position - limit measures, not the end of the anti - involution theme market, with a relatively large adjustment amplitude. The market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [3][5] - The feed sector is expected to be bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Week Market Data Overview - Anti - involution varieties fluctuated sharply last week. Due to concentrated capital inflows and slow position transfers of the main contracts, the exchange introduced position - limit measures, leading to a sharp decline in the main contracts as liquidity suddenly flowed out. The 09 contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal led the decline. However, the anti - involution theme is a long - term policy strategy. Although some varieties have high inventories, the probability of prices falling back to the June lows is extremely low. The market recognizes the anti - involution policy, but the high positions in the near - term contracts forced the exchange to take measures to resolve potential delivery risks. Additionally, soybean meal has deviated from the decline of US soybeans recently [4] Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow was 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed and breeding, and soft commodities sectors all had capital outflows, while the oil and fat sector had a capital inflow of 646 million yuan [8] - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 18.7%, and the inventory percentile is 42.6% [8] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: The table presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.9%, and the inventory percentile is 43.7% [10] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of agricultural products, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 3.4%, and the inventory percentile is 32.0% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 1.74% to close at 77,440 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the potential impact of Trump's policies on tariffs have affected copper prices. Currently, sentiment has improved. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. On the industrial side, domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory is 203,450 tons, with a slight decrease last week. SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54,858 tons to 116,753 tons compared with last week [3] - The PMI is declining, the copper market was in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. Exchange inventories remain high, while bonded zone inventories remain at a low level [8][10][14][18] - Processing fees are recovering slowly, CFTC non-commercial net long positions are flowing out [22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.74% to close at 77,440 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors affected copper prices, and currently, sentiment has improved. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54,858 tons to 116,753 tons compared with last week [3] 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [8] - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The copper market was in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The 2018 - 2024 China annual supply - demand balance sheet shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [10][13] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories remain high, and bonded zone inventories remain at a low level [14][18] 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are recovering slowly [22] - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: No specific information provided - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided - **Warehouse Receipts**: No specific information provided

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by Trump to suspend tariffs for 90 days on countries that do not retaliate, leading to a rebound in various markets, including commodities and stock indices [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - Following Trump's tariff suspension announcement, international oil prices experienced a strong rebound, with a reported increase of 3.46% to 484.2 yuan per barrel [1][10]. - As of April 4, U.S. crude oil inventories totaled 839.055 million barrels, up by 2.829 million barrels from the previous week, while gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels [2][10]. - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.458 million barrels per day, down by 122,000 barrels from the previous week but up by 358,000 barrels compared to the same period last year [2][10]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices stabilized and rebounded due to market reactions to tariff concerns, with gold maintaining a strong position despite some price corrections [3][17]. - The exclusion of precious metals from Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" alleviated market pressures, leading to a recovery in prices [3][17]. - Market sentiment remains cautious due to inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding future U.S. monetary policy [3][17]. Group 3: Stock Indices - The U.S. stock market surged following Trump's tariff suspension announcement, with significant rebounds in various indices, including a 1.50% increase in IH2504 and a 3.33% increase in IM2504 [4][6]. - The total trading volume reached 1.74 trillion yuan, reflecting increased market confidence due to coordinated efforts from multiple regulatory bodies to stabilize the market [4][6]. - The A-share market has shown resilience against downward pressures from tariffs, with implied volatility decreasing significantly [4][6]. Group 4: Domestic News - The Central Surrounding Work Conference emphasized the importance of building a community of shared destiny with neighboring countries, focusing on strategic mutual trust and regional stability [6]. - The conference highlighted the need for enhanced cooperation in supply chains and infrastructure connectivity among regional countries [6]. Group 5: Automotive Industry - In March, retail sales in the passenger car market reached 1.94 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and a month-on-month increase of 40.2%, the highest growth rate for March in nearly a decade [8]. - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in March reached 991,000 units, up by 38% year-on-year and 45% month-on-month [8].