Report Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook on the market [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in the market is a technical adjustment due to delivery and position - limit measures, not the end of the anti - involution theme market, with a relatively large adjustment amplitude. The market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [3][5] - The feed sector is expected to be bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Week Market Data Overview - Anti - involution varieties fluctuated sharply last week. Due to concentrated capital inflows and slow position transfers of the main contracts, the exchange introduced position - limit measures, leading to a sharp decline in the main contracts as liquidity suddenly flowed out. The 09 contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal led the decline. However, the anti - involution theme is a long - term policy strategy. Although some varieties have high inventories, the probability of prices falling back to the June lows is extremely low. The market recognizes the anti - involution policy, but the high positions in the near - term contracts forced the exchange to take measures to resolve potential delivery risks. Additionally, soybean meal has deviated from the decline of US soybeans recently [4] Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow was 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed and breeding, and soft commodities sectors all had capital outflows, while the oil and fat sector had a capital inflow of 646 million yuan [8] - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 18.7%, and the inventory percentile is 42.6% [8] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: The table presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.9%, and the inventory percentile is 43.7% [10] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of agricultural products, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 3.4%, and the inventory percentile is 32.0% [11]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（4.21~4.25） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜企稳反弹，沪铜主力合约上涨1.74%，收报于77440元/吨。宏观面看，俄乌战争持续，地缘政 治扰动铜价,川普上台后，全面关税启动，衰退逻辑弥漫市场，目前情绪面有所好转。国内方面，消费 将进入旺季，等待消费指引，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚 需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存203450吨，上周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周减54858 吨至116753吨。 期货主力 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2023供需紧平衡，2024过剩 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、 ...

首席点评： 关税反转，全面反弹 特朗普再次翻云覆雨，于北京时间 4 月 10 日凌晨 1 点多宣布：已经授权对不采取报复行动的国家，实 施 90 天的关税暂停。中央周边工作会议在北京举行。会议强调，构建周边命运共同体，要与周边国家 巩固战略互信，支持地区国家走稳自身发展道路，妥善管控矛盾分歧；深化发展融合，构建高水平互联 互通网络，加强产业链供应链合作；共同维护地区稳定，开展安全和执法合作，应对各类风险挑战；扩 大交往交流，便利人员往来。国内商品期货夜盘，原油合约收涨 3.46% 报 484.2 元 / 桶。沪金收涨 1.48% 报 732 元 / 克，沪银收涨 2.21% 报 7879 元 / 千克。 重点品种： 原油、贵金属、股指 原油： 特朗普宣布暂缓部分关税 90 天，国际油价尾盘强劲反弹。美国能源信息署数据显示，截止 4 月 4 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.39055 亿桶，比前一周增长 282.9 万桶；美国商业 原油库存量 4.42345 亿桶，比前一周增长 255.3 万桶；美国汽油库存总量 2.35977 亿桶，比前一周下降 160 万桶；馏分油库存量为 1.11082 ...