Report Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook on the market [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in the market is a technical adjustment due to delivery and position - limit measures, not the end of the anti - involution theme market, with a relatively large adjustment amplitude. The market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [3][5] - The feed sector is expected to be bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Week Market Data Overview - Anti - involution varieties fluctuated sharply last week. Due to concentrated capital inflows and slow position transfers of the main contracts, the exchange introduced position - limit measures, leading to a sharp decline in the main contracts as liquidity suddenly flowed out. The 09 contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal led the decline. However, the anti - involution theme is a long - term policy strategy. Although some varieties have high inventories, the probability of prices falling back to the June lows is extremely low. The market recognizes the anti - involution policy, but the high positions in the near - term contracts forced the exchange to take measures to resolve potential delivery risks. Additionally, soybean meal has deviated from the decline of US soybeans recently [4] Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow was 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed and breeding, and soft commodities sectors all had capital outflows, while the oil and fat sector had a capital inflow of 646 million yuan [8] - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 18.7%, and the inventory percentile is 42.6% [8] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: The table presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.9%, and the inventory percentile is 43.7% [10] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of agricultural products, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 3.4%, and the inventory percentile is 32.0% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 1.74% to close at 77,440 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the potential impact of Trump's policies on tariffs have affected copper prices. Currently, sentiment has improved. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. On the industrial side, domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory is 203,450 tons, with a slight decrease last week. SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54,858 tons to 116,753 tons compared with last week [3] - The PMI is declining, the copper market was in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. Exchange inventories remain high, while bonded zone inventories remain at a low level [8][10][14][18] - Processing fees are recovering slowly, CFTC non-commercial net long positions are flowing out [22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.74% to close at 77,440 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors affected copper prices, and currently, sentiment has improved. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54,858 tons to 116,753 tons compared with last week [3] 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [8] - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The copper market was in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The 2018 - 2024 China annual supply - demand balance sheet shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [10][13] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories remain high, and bonded zone inventories remain at a low level [14][18] 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are recovering slowly [22] - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: No specific information provided - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided - **Warehouse Receipts**: No specific information provided

首席点评： 关税反转，全面反弹 特朗普再次翻云覆雨，于北京时间 4 月 10 日凌晨 1 点多宣布：已经授权对不采取报复行动的国家，实 施 90 天的关税暂停。中央周边工作会议在北京举行。会议强调，构建周边命运共同体，要与周边国家 巩固战略互信，支持地区国家走稳自身发展道路，妥善管控矛盾分歧；深化发展融合，构建高水平互联 互通网络，加强产业链供应链合作；共同维护地区稳定，开展安全和执法合作，应对各类风险挑战；扩 大交往交流，便利人员往来。国内商品期货夜盘，原油合约收涨 3.46% 报 484.2 元 / 桶。沪金收涨 1.48% 报 732 元 / 克，沪银收涨 2.21% 报 7879 元 / 千克。 重点品种： 原油、贵金属、股指 原油： 特朗普宣布暂缓部分关税 90 天，国际油价尾盘强劲反弹。美国能源信息署数据显示，截止 4 月 4 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.39055 亿桶，比前一周增长 282.9 万桶；美国商业 原油库存量 4.42345 亿桶，比前一周增长 255.3 万桶；美国汽油库存总量 2.35977 亿桶，比前一周下降 160 万桶；馏分油库存量为 1.11082 ...