据见闻此前文章，当地时间1月7日，特朗普及其顾问正计划在未来几年内主导委内瑞拉石油行业。总统告诉助手，他相信自己的努力可以帮助将 油价降至他所希望的每桶50美元的水平。 特朗普政府力推的每桶50美元油价目标并非遥不可及，但这一宏愿的实现与维持将面临复杂的市场博弈与潜在的供应侧反弹风险。 在委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被美方控制的消息传出前，美国基准原油期货价格已在每桶57美元附近徘徊，甚至一度跌破60美元关口。受巴西、圭亚那 及加拿大等地强劲产出的推动，市场本就面临供应过剩的压力。美国能源信息署（EIA）曾在12月的预测中指出，2026年全球石油库存日均增量 将超过200万桶。在此背景下，委内瑞拉潜在的产量恢复将进一步推动价格下行。 高盛预计，如果委内瑞拉日产量能增加40万桶，今年原油均价可能降至每桶50美元。尽管委内瑞拉目前在全球原油产量中的占比不足1%，但这一 增量足以对市场定价产生实质性压制。 然而，这种低油价环境面临着来自全球两大供应力量——OPEC+与美国本土生产商的严峻考验，两者分别占据全球供应量的约一半和五分之一。 委内瑞拉：短期增产的可行路径 目前该国日产量约为90万桶，高盛指出，通过相对短期的修复措施 ...

【最新数据一览】 2、美能源部长：委石油产量在18个月内可能增长50%。美参议院寻求限制特朗普对委继续动武，特朗 普对5名"倒戈"的共和党人发出威胁。特朗普筹划控制委国有石油公司，目标是将油价压低至50美元/ 桶。委内瑞拉重申致力于深化与中国的经济和贸易协定。委内瑞拉股指近期暴涨124%，外国投资者寻 求入场机会。 1月8日COMEX黄金库存1131.77吨，较前一交易日减少0.5吨；COMEX白银库存13762.66吨，较前一交 易日减少101.33吨。 1月8日SPDR黄金ETF持仓1067.13吨，较前一个交易日保持不变；SLV白银ETF持仓16215.43吨，较前一 个交易日增加115.6吨。 摘要北京时间周五(1月9日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.910附近，现货黄金开盘于4475.71美元/盎司， 目前交投于4458.76美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于1000.50元/克附近，沪金主力交投于1002.70元/克附 近。 1月8日延期补偿费支付方向：Au(t+d)--多付空，Ag(t+d)--空付多，mAu(t+d)--多付空。 北京时间周五(1月9日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.910附近， ...

临近中选，打击马杜罗政府有利于巩固和提升基本盘的支持。 多年以来，特朗普致力于塑造马杜罗政 府向美国大量输送非法移民和毒品的形象，MAGA群体对此类叙事尤为买账。另外，美国拉丁裔过往 常年支持民主党，2024年大选因通胀等原因倒向共和党，但是过去一年对特朗普的支持率又快速下 降。以古巴裔和委内瑞拉裔为代表的右翼拉丁裔广泛分布在得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州等地，打击马杜罗 政府将提升这部分群体的好感。 最好的情况是，如果能在委内瑞拉扶植起亲美政权，将有利于特朗普压低油价。 与2024年大选相同， 2026年中选的"题眼"依然是物价。对物价控制不力、底层民众生活成本上升，是特朗普中选面临的最 主要减分项。因此，无论是去年夏天的以伊冲突，还是此次委内瑞拉行动，特朗普都极力避免攻击能源 设施，而是寻求短期性价比最大化，利用美国在情报、渗透、武器等方面的优势，直取要害、扬长而 去。 巩固MAGA基本盘声望和拉动右翼拉丁裔的初级目标已经实现，"强势介入"委内瑞拉石 油产业、释放石油储备潜力的高级目标则遥遥无期。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤、厉梦颖 特朗普与马杜罗政府的恩怨由来已久。 特朗普在第一任期就表现出门罗主义倾向，对西半 ...

Core Points - The Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced a price adjustment for refined oil products, with increases in the prices of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel by 0.1 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.1 yuan per liter respectively [1] - The new maximum retail prices for 92 and 95 gasoline are set at 6.95 yuan and 7.44 yuan per liter, while 0 diesel is adjusted to 6.57 yuan per liter [1] - This adjustment marks the seventh price increase in 2025, with a total of 22 price adjustment windows this year, resulting in a net decrease of 620 yuan and 595 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel compared to the end of last year [4] Price Adjustment Details - The price adjustment is based on recent international oil price fluctuations and the National Development and Reform Commission's pricing information [1] - The next price adjustment window will open on November 24, 2025, with expectations of a potential decrease in prices due to current market conditions [5] - The three major oil companies (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are required to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies [5] Market Analysis - Industry experts suggest that short-term oil prices are currently in a narrow fluctuation range, with signs of weakening, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [5] - The Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission has called for increased market supervision to enforce compliance with national pricing policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil and gas stocks experienced significant gains, with major companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) seeing substantial increases in their stock prices, driven by OPEC+'s recent announcement regarding oil supply adjustments [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - CNOOC's stock rose over 4.8%, closing at 28.42 CNY per share, while China Petroleum's stock increased by 4.48%, reaching a new high of 9.56 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization surpassing 1.75 trillion CNY [3]. - Other companies, including Sinopec, Tongyuan Oil, and Zhongman Petroleum, also experienced stock price increases [3]. Group 2: OPEC+ Supply Adjustments - OPEC+ announced on November 2 that eight major oil-producing countries will increase oil supply by 137,000 barrels per day starting December, maintaining the previously announced modest increases for October and November [4]. - The organization will pause its production increase plans for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal factors, marking the first pause since resuming production cuts in April [4][6]. - Morgan Stanley adjusted its Brent crude oil price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $57.5 to $60 per barrel, indicating that OPEC+ is actively managing the market, which provides downward protection for oil prices [4]. Group 3: Impact on Oil Prices and Company Performance - OPEC+ has been supporting oil prices through production cuts, having announced a voluntary reduction of 1.65 million barrels per day in April 2023, originally set to last until the end of 2026 [6]. - The average price of Brent crude oil fell by approximately 14% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year, leading to a decline in average selling prices for major Chinese oil companies by 8% to 14% [6]. - The three major oil companies in China collectively reported a decline in net profits in the first three quarters, with a reduction of over 35 billion CNY compared to the previous year, equating to a daily loss of approximately 3.8 million CNY [6].

Group 1: Market Performance - Oil and gas stocks experienced significant gains, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) rising over 4.8% to 28.42 CNY per share, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) increasing by 4.48% to 9.56 CNY per share, reaching a new high for the year with a market capitalization of over 1.75 trillion CNY [1] - Other companies such as China Petroleum (PetroChina) and Tongyuan Petroleum also saw their stock prices rise [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Actions - OPEC+ announced on November 2 that eight major oil-producing countries will increase oil supply by 137,000 barrels per day starting in December, maintaining the previously announced slight increases for October and November, but will pause the increase plan for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal factors [2][3] - This marks the first pause in the increase since OPEC+ began restoring previously cut production levels in April [2][3] - Morgan Stanley adjusted its Brent crude oil price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $57.5 to $60 per barrel, indicating that OPEC+ is returning to active market management, which provides downward protection for oil prices [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - OPEC+ has been supporting oil prices through production cuts, having announced a voluntary reduction of 1.65 million barrels per day in April 2023, originally set to last until the end of 2026 [3] - The organization reiterated that the reduction may be partially or fully restored depending on market conditions [3] - The average price of Brent crude oil fell by approximately 14% year-on-year in the first three quarters, impacting the revenues of major Chinese oil companies, which reported a decline in average crude oil prices of 8% to 14% [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - Oil and gas stocks experienced significant gains, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) rising over 4.8% to 28.42 CNY per share, and China Petroleum (PetroChina) increasing by 4.48% to 9.56 CNY per share, reaching a new high for the year with a market capitalization exceeding 1.75 trillion CNY [1] - Other companies such as Sinopec and Tongyuan Petroleum also saw stock price increases, reflecting a broader upward trend in the sector [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Actions - OPEC+ announced on November 2 that eight major oil-producing countries will increase oil supply by 137,000 barrels per day starting in December, maintaining the previously announced modest increases for October and November, but will pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal factors [1][4] - This marks the first pause in production increases since OPEC+ began restoring previously cut production levels in April [1] Group 3: Price Forecast Adjustments - Following OPEC+'s announcement, Morgan Stanley adjusted its Brent crude oil price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $57.5 to $60 per barrel, indicating that OPEC+ is returning to active market management, which provides downward protection for oil prices and reduces volatility and crash risks during anticipated supply surpluses [2] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The oil market has faced significant uncertainty in 2023 due to various factors, including production policies from major oil-producing countries and international monetary policies, leading to a generally loose supply situation and fluctuating oil prices [5] - The average selling price of crude oil for major Chinese oil companies, including CNOOC and PetroChina, fell by 8% to 14% year-on-year in the first three quarters, contributing to a collective decline in net profits of over 35 billion CNY compared to the previous year, equating to a daily loss of approximately 380 million CNY [5]

Core Insights - Oil prices are set to drop significantly, with a decrease of 0.24-0.26 yuan per liter, marking the largest reduction since 2025 [3][5] - The nationwide adjustment will result in a reduction of 290 yuan per ton, effectively negating the price increase from June [3][5] - Current gasoline prices vary regionally, with 95-octane gasoline priced between 7.3-7.7 yuan per liter, highlighting disparities based on location [3][5] Price Adjustment Details - The price drop will allow car owners to save approximately 13 yuan when filling a 50-liter tank, equating to the cost of two cups of milk tea [7] - The adjustment reflects a 6.22% decrease in international oil prices, demonstrating the effectiveness of domestic price control mechanisms [5] - The next price adjustment window is anticipated on November 10, indicating a cyclical nature to oil pricing [7] Regional Price Disparities - There is a notable price difference for 98-octane gasoline, with prices in Shanghai at 9.37 yuan per liter compared to 8.09 yuan in Gansu, influenced by transportation costs and refinery distribution [5] - The upcoming price changes may alter regional price differences, which could be beneficial for cross-province travelers [5]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in September, reversing previous production cuts and aiming to capture a larger share of the global oil market [4]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ members have approved a daily increase of 548,000 barrels, marking a shift from previous production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [4]. - This decision is seen as a response to geopolitical tensions and high summer demand, aimed at alleviating pressure on consumers and is viewed as a victory for U.S. President Trump [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the increase in supply may lead to an oversupply situation by the end of the year, challenging market stability [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Implications - Following the announcement, Brent crude oil prices are expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel, reflecting that the potential increase in quotas is already priced in [4]. - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of surplus oil supply starting in October, with warnings from analysts about the risks of exacerbating this surplus [8]. - The geopolitical context, particularly U.S. sanctions threats against Russia, adds complexity to the oil market dynamics, potentially influencing prices and supply stability [5][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Considerations - The focus is shifting to the remaining production cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day, which are set to continue until the end of 2026 [4]. - Analysts emphasize the need for OPEC+ to balance market share recovery with the risk of falling oil prices, which could impact their revenues significantly [8]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of Brent crude prices fluctuating between $68 and $72 per barrel in the near term, influenced by geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production policies [9].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed in principle to significantly increase oil production in September, with plans to formally approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day during a video meeting on August 3 [1][3]. Group 1: Production Increase - OPEC+ plans to reverse the previous reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day implemented by eight member countries, including the UAE, which is gradually implementing additional production quotas [3]. - The increase in production marks a significant policy shift from price maintenance to volume expansion, aimed at capturing global market share amidst geopolitical tensions and summer demand [3]. - RBC Capital Markets anticipates that oil-producing countries will pause further increases to assess market conditions and macroeconomic trends as the voluntary reduction approaches its end [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The decision to increase production comes at a time when U.S. employment data fell short of expectations, raising concerns about global energy demand [1][5]. - Analysts warn that the increase in supply, combined with slowing global economic growth, could lead to an oversupply situation in the oil market by the end of the year [1][3]. - UBS analysts suggest that the potential quota increases are largely already reflected in current prices, with Brent crude expected to remain around $70 per barrel [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The timing of OPEC+'s decision is sensitive, as U.S. President Trump has threatened secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports to pressure Russia regarding its actions in Ukraine [5]. - Trump's potential sanctions could conflict with his goal of lowering oil prices, as any disruption in Russian oil exports may lead to higher international oil prices [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize the need for OPEC+ to balance market share recovery with the risk of falling oil prices, which could impact their revenues significantly [7].