Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East has significantly impacted the crude oil market, with the interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz being the main factor. The duration of the strait's interruption is the key to determining the future risk premium level of oil prices [74]. - If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the estimated export loss in the Middle East will be 800 - 900 million barrels per day, accounting for about 8% of global total consumption. The major oil - producing countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation will face varying degrees of production cuts, and OPEC+'s remaining theoretical idle production capacity of about 3 million barrels per day cannot be effectively released [23][36]. - The release of the IEA's strategic petroleum reserve can provide short - term supply buffering, but the inventory distribution is uneven, and different markets have different capabilities to withstand the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz [42]. - In the long - term, the United States has the greatest potential for supply growth, while South America's supply growth potential in 2026 is difficult to increase significantly [62][70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Middle East Oil Export and Strait of Hormuz Impact - The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 27% of global crude oil and petroleum product exports. In 2025, the daily transportation volume of crude oil and petroleum products through the strait reached 1,491 million barrels and 332 million barrels respectively. The major Middle East oil - producing countries are highly dependent on the strait for oil exports [5][7]. - 83% of the crude oil and petroleum products exported through the Strait of Hormuz flow to Asia. Crude oil exports are concentrated in Asia (86%), while petroleum product exports are relatively more dispersed, with Asia accounting for 61%, and Europe and Africa each accounting for 16% [8][12]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously closed, the estimated export loss in the Middle East will be 800 - 900 million barrels per day, accounting for about 8% of global total consumption. In the four weeks before the conflict, the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was at a low level. In the week of March 29, the crude oil transportation volume through the strait was about 7% of the normal level [23]. Bypass Routes for Oil Export - Some countries can use over - land pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for partial exports. Saudi Arabia's "East - West Oil Pipeline" has a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day after expansion, and the estimated stable loading capacity of Yanbu Port is 4.3 - 4.5 million barrels per day, with a maximum export capacity of 5 - 5.5 million barrels per day. However, the south - bound route of Yanbu Port passes through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, and some oil tankers may face the risk of attack by the Houthi armed forces [15]. - The ADCOP pipeline in the UAE has an estimated capacity of 1.5 - 1.8 million barrels per day. Since 2024, the increase in the pipeline's utilization rate has led to an increase in the crude oil export volume of Fujairah Port to about 1.15 million barrels per day, accounting for about 33% of the UAE's total exports. However, the high utilization rate of the pipeline limits its remaining capacity to divert the transportation volume of the Strait of Hormuz, and Fujairah Port has been reported to have been attacked multiple times since the conflict [15]. - Iraq used to export about 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day through the Ceyhan Port in Turkey, which was once interrupted. Since last October, the export volume has recovered to 150,000 - 200,000 barrels per day. Recently, due to Iraq's production cuts, the loading at the Botas Ceyhan terminal has also been affected [15]. Iran's Oil Export Situation - 94% of Iran's crude oil exports come from Kharg Island. Although the military facilities on the island were attacked by the United States, the export terminal was not damaged, and the loading volume has remained at a normal level since the conflict. Iran's crude oil export volume is expected to remain stable at about 1.6 million barrels per day, and the total amount of Iranian crude oil at sea is 180 million barrels, with the floating storage inventory of those floating for more than 15 days dropping to about 24 million barrels [18]. Impact on Oil Production and Supply - The major oil - producing countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation will face varying degrees of production cuts due to the depletion of on - land storage capacity. Iraq and Kuwait are the most affected due to the lack of bypass capabilities, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also announced different degrees of production restrictions [36]. - The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz will also result in about 3 million barrels per day of OPEC+'s remaining theoretical idle production capacity being unable to be effectively released to the market, further reducing the supply buffer [36]. Global Oil Inventory and Product Inventory - After the global seaborne crude oil in - transit volume decreases, the consumption of on - land inventory will accelerate. As of the end of March, the total global on - land inventory (excluding countries along the Persian Gulf) was about 2.8 billion barrels, and the overall level of global on - land crude oil inventory is not high [42]. - The gasoline inventory in Europe and the United States is slightly higher than the five - year average, while the diesel inventory level is relatively low. The price of middle distillates has risen more sharply after the conflict, and Europe faces a greater risk of supply shortage due to its relatively high dependence on aviation kerosene and diesel from the Middle East [45]. IEA's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release - As of the end of December 2025, the IEA's government inventory was 1.245 billion barrels, and the industry inventory was 2.826 billion barrels. On March 11, the IEA announced the largest - ever release of strategic petroleum reserves, about 400 million barrels [51]. - The United States plans to release 172 million barrels of crude oil SPR in the form of "swap" within 120 days (1.435 million barrels per day) and requires enterprises to replenish the reserves in full by March 2028. Europe plans to release 34.4 million barrels of crude oil and 73.1 million barrels of petroleum products, and Asia - Pacific countries plan to release 65.2 million barrels of crude oil and 43.4 million barrels of petroleum products [51]. Asian Market and Sanction Oil - Asian countries generally have a high degree of dependence on crude oil imports from the Persian Gulf, and the seaborne import proportion of major consumers is over 40%. In the case of continuous supply interruption in the Middle East, the problem of supply mismatch in the market segmented by sanctioned oil may become more prominent [56]. - Even if the United States temporarily relaxes sanctions, the settlement problem of sanctioned oil, especially Iranian crude oil, may still limit buyers' purchases. The threat of drone attacks on Russian ports has also increased, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect Russia's export volume [61]. Long - term Supply Growth Potential - In the long - term, the United States has the greatest potential for supply growth. If the long - term oil price center moves up, the growth rate of U.S. production may accelerate. The average oil price required for profitable drilling in the Permian region is 67 US dollars per barrel [67]. - South America's supply growth potential in 2026 is difficult to increase significantly. Brazil's annual crude oil production is expected to rise to 4.2 million barrels per day, with an increase of about 300,000 barrels per day [70]. Oil Price Outlook - The passage of the Strait of Hormuz will be the decisive factor in determining the future risk premium level of oil prices. The interruption of the strait has had a substantial impact on the market supply, and the duration of the interruption is the key to testing energy security [74]. - In the short - term, the oil price may remain highly volatile as the expectations of "progress in negotiations" and "escalation of military operations" alternate. If the conflict ends quickly, the risk premium will significantly decline [74]. - In the long - term, the restoration of supply in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East is expected to be gradual, and the oil price fluctuation range is expected to fall to 80 - 100 US dollars per barrel, with the center higher than the pre - conflict level [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction on the crude oil end remains unresolved, and spot prices have generally increased. Although the IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the market's core contradiction has not been resolved. Middle - East geopolitical conflicts continue, and the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, leading to a significant tightening of Middle - East oil supply. If the strait is blocked for too long, domestic refineries may face raw material shortages after inventory depletion [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On March 12, the closing price of the main BU2604 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 4002 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton or 5.967% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 46,805 lots, down 6,109 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 196,327 lots, down 20,536 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 4256 - 4430 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3800 - 4150 yuan/ton; South China, 3900 - 4200 yuan/ton; East China, 3890 - 3890 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot price in the Northwest region was relatively stable yesterday, while prices in other regions increased to varying degrees [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The strategy is neutral, with a focus on short - term wait - and - see. Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not provided [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "long" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle - East geopolitical situation is unclear. The release of oil strategic reserves may temporarily relieve but cannot fundamentally solve the impact of the suspension in the Strait of Hormuz. International crude oil fluctuates sharply. Pure benzene previously faced the expectation of reduced raw material input, leading to an expectation of tightened supply in the market. Major downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, and aniline have good profitability. In the short term, the price of pure benzene strengthens again under cost - push and the enhanced blending logic. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2604 rose by 516 yuan to 8450 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 7965 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 145), and the spot price in Shandong was 7403 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 849). In terms of positions, the long positions decreased by 372 lots to 20,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 549 lots to 21,900 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: In February, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.8591 million tons, a decrease of 87,300 tons from the previous month and an increase of 138,500 tons from the same month last year [2] - **Inventory**: On March 9, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 302,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous inventory of 303,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%; compared with the inventory of 141,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 161,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 114.18%. From March 2nd to March 8th, the incomplete statistics showed that the arrival was 12,000 tons and the pick - up was about 13,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 1 storage area decreased, 1 storage area increased, and 5 storage areas remained stable [2] - **Price Adjustment**: Sinopec Chemical Sales lowered the listed price of pure benzene by 3000 yuan/ton today. The resources along the Yangtze River of the East China, North China, South China, and Central China branches all implement 8000 yuan/ton. This price will be officially implemented from March 10th [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of styrene was 74.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the operating rate of aniline was 89.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 69.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8% [2] - **International Oil Price**: The shipping blockage in the Strait of Hormuz continued to push up the supply risk. The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, but it will be implemented in steps and no specific plan was announced. International oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 3.80 dollars/barrel to 87.25 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 4.18 dollars/barrel to 91.98 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.76%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract fell 83.2 to 649.2 yuan/barrel and rose 45.8 to 695 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle - East geopolitical situation is unclear. The release of oil strategic reserves may temporarily relieve but cannot fundamentally solve the impact of the suspension in the Strait of Hormuz. International crude oil fluctuates sharply. Pure benzene previously faced the expectation of reduced raw material input, leading to an expectation of tightened supply in the market. Major downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, and aniline have good profitability. In the short term, the price of pure benzene strengthens again under cost - push and the enhanced blending logic [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish thinking or focus on the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market expectations for crude oil supply and demand have been cautious, with a key focus on whether OPEC will resume production increases. Recent attention on this issue has diminished [1] Supply Analysis - Predictions of a daily surplus of 3 to 4 million barrels in the crude oil market did not materialize in actual inventory data, indicating a discrepancy in demand assessments rather than supply calculations [2] - The U.S. shale oil supply has become less elastic due to long-term factors, making it difficult to increase production in response to price spikes caused by geopolitical events [3] - Non-OPEC countries' crude oil production growth is nearly zero, with significant challenges in increasing output from deepwater projects in Brazil and Guyana [3][4] OPEC Situation - OPEC confirmed in early February that it would maintain production levels unchanged through March, reflecting a strong consensus among member countries [4] - Concerns about Venezuela's potential to release significant oil production capacity may be overstated, as U.S. companies are cautious about investing in the region due to high risks and low cash flow priorities [5] Demand Analysis - The IEA forecasts moderate growth in global oil demand this year, supported by signs of economic recovery and strategic oil reserve increases in China [6][7] - China's strategic oil reserve has rapidly increased, with plans for further expansion, which could significantly impact global oil demand [7] - The U.S. has also been considering strategic oil reserve replenishment, which could provide additional support for international oil prices [8] Investment Opportunities - The oil ETF (561360) is recommended as a potential investment vehicle, tracking the China Securities Oil and Gas Industry Index, which includes major players and offers exposure to various segments of the oil industry [8]