投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 商品情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，假期钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但整体维持相对高位， 考虑到钢市矛盾不断累积，利好效应在趋弱。与此同时，假期国内港口铁矿石到货偏高，而高矿价下 海外矿石发运积极，且节后内矿供应将恢复，供应压力增加。目前来看，节后商品情绪偏暖，且需求 韧性尚可 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report MEG - The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol (MEG) is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4400. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options with an exercise price of 4150 [1][3][5]. PX - TA - In the short term, the absolute price of the PX - TA industry chain is under pressure, but the compression space is limited. It is advisable to consider cautious long positions or expand the TA - SC spread. For the processing fee, it is recommended to expand the TA01 contract processing fee below 270 [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs MEG Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The total load remains stable at 74.93% (+0.02%), with coal - based load rising to 79.38% (+2.69%). The port inventory is expected to increase by about 10,000 tons. The coal - based marginal profit is under significant pressure [2]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand is lackluster, and the speculative sentiment is weak. The bottle - chip processing fee has improved [2]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and MEG in East China decreased from 4378 to 4352 yuan/ton [8]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the MEG coal - based profit dropped from 39 to - 64 yuan/ton [8][10]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased from 45.9 to 46.5 tons [9]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of MEG show certain fluctuations, with production, import, and demand changing over time [12]. Maintenance Situation - Many domestic and foreign MEG devices are in maintenance, such as Xinjiang Tianye Phase III, which was restarted and then shut down again, and two sets of Shell's devices in the United States are under maintenance [1][15]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The PX load is adjusted down to 86.3% (-1.5%), and the PTA load remains stable at 76.8%. The PX is expected to accumulate inventory by about 100,000 tons in September [6]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak [7]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and PTA in East China decreased from 4565 to 4555 yuan/ton [10]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the PTA domestic processing fee increased from 115 to 151 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The PTA social inventory increased from 208 to 210 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of PX - TA change over time, with production, import, and demand showing different trends [13]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX and PTA devices are under maintenance, such as Fuhai Dahua's 700,000 - ton PX line and Zhongtai Petrochemical's PTA device [6][17][18]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has slightly increased [2][7]. Key Data - Price: POY decreased from 6650 to 6625 yuan/ton, and FDY dropped from 7025 to 6875 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread and profit: The POY processing fee increased from 185 to 207 yuan/ton, and the FDY processing fee decreased from 110 to 7 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory: The POY inventory days increased from 19.3 to 21.7 days, and the FDY inventory days increased from 21.4 to 22.7 days [11]. Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester fiber filament and staple fiber shows certain fluctuations [112]. Export and Import - The export and import volumes of polyester products show different trends over time [116][119]. Profit - The processing profit of polyester products such as filament and staple fiber shows certain seasonal changes [121]. Downstream of Polyester Weaving - The weaving start - up rate remains stable, and the inventory of grey cloth is high. The order volume is insufficient [2][7]. Spinning Mill - The start - up rate of the spinning mill shows certain fluctuations, and the inventory of yarn is at a certain level [137][139]. Terminal Macro - The production and sales data of downstream products such as cloth, yarn, and soft drinks show certain seasonal changes [149][150][151]. Spinning and Clothing Export - The export volume and value index of textile and clothing show certain fluctuations [153][155][157]. Global Spinning and Clothing - The import, inventory, and export data of textile and clothing in countries such as the United States, Vietnam, and India show different trends [162][163][165].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon fundamentals have little change, with overall supply and demand basically balanced. It is expected to fluctuate following the overall commodity sentiment. The polysilicon market has a large - scale correction, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [2][4][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weak. The main contract 2511 opened at 8555 yuan/ton and closed at 8410 yuan/ton, a change of - 135 yuan/ton (- 1.58%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 held 286040 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49955, a change of 33 from the previous day [2] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable. Due to a 400 - yuan/ton increase in coal prices, the price of bonding silicon coal in Xinjiang rose by about 270 yuan/ton to 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption Side**: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10500 - 10800 yuan/ton. Due to the non - appearance of the traditional "Golden September" peak season effect and the on - demand procurement strategy, the demand release was not concentrated, and the DMC price rebound faced resistance. In the short term, the domestic DMC price will mainly fluctuate slightly [3] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 9, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 had a large - scale correction, opening at 55555 yuan/ton and closing at 53520 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.73% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 142980 positions (154011 in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 584927 [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. The price of N - type material was 49.20 - 54.00 yuan/kg (- 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 21.10, a change of - 0.90% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW, a change of - 6.65% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 30200.00 tons, a change of - 2.58% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer production was 13.78GW, a change of 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.28 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.63 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 yuan/piece [5] - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Cross - period**: None - **Cross - variety**: None - **Spot - futures**: None - **Options**: None [4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation - **Cross - period**: None - **Cross - variety**: None - **Spot - futures**: None - **Options**: None [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, and its futures market is mainly fluctuating with the overall commodity sentiment. For polysilicon, the spot price center has moved up, but the market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][8] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (3.66%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 283,578 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, an increase of 553 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton. The total social inventory in major regions on August 21 was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from last week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton this week, down 500 yuan/ton from last week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' prices were 11,000 - 11,500 yuan/ton, down 500 - 1000 yuan/ton from last week [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 52,200 yuan/ton and closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.28% from the previous trading day. The position was 149,610 lots, and the trading volume was 447,553 lots [5] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% change; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a - 12.07% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 29,100 tons, a - 0.68% change; the silicon wafer output was 12.29GW, a 1.57% change [5] Other Products - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.21 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.56 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.36 yuan/piece [7] - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7] Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price remains stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly this week. The fundamentals have changed little, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment [3] Polysilicon - In the short - term, it is suitable for range trading. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and the port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market port inventory has been depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish inventory has declined [2]. - Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical sector has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, have experienced continuous delays in maintenance, which may have a significant impact on the future market. This has also been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease. Polyester sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has had a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - **PTA**: The market risk preference has recovered, and the crude oil price has slightly increased during the day, strengthening the cost support. The PTA supply side has seen both restarts and maintenance. The PTA spot price has slightly increased following the futures price. On August 12, 2025, the PTA main futures price was 4726 yuan/ton, the spot price was 4705 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee was 218.3 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee was 229.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The spot negotiation price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4507 - 4509 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The ethylene glycol futures have maintained a relatively strong trend, and the spot price has continued to rise, while the basis negotiation has slightly weakened [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 76.56%, the MEG start - up rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 58.74%, and the polyester load decreased by 0.21 percentage points to 86.88% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6730 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7095 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F increased by 30 yuan/ton to 7935 yuan/ton. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY were - 51, - 186, and - 46 respectively, with changes of - 10, 40, and 20 compared to the previous day. The sales of polyester filament increased from 40% to 41% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased by 20 yuan/ton to 6570 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to 139, and the sales increased from 57% to 58% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5815 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to - 66, and the sales increased from 89% to 115% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Commodity sentiment has weakened, PTA basis has weakened and trading volume has declined. Domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, and PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The overall polyester inventory is not high, and the polyester load has dropped to 88% [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Spot Price and Closing Price - PTA spot price increased from 4670 to 4700, with a change of 30; MEG domestic price increased from 4465 to 4484, with a change of 19; PTA closing price increased from 4684 to 4706, with a change of 22; MEG closing price increased from 4384 to 4414, with a change of 30 [2] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Price - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6550; short fiber basis increased from 152 to 155, with a change of 3; 8 - 9 spread decreased from 32 to 28, with a change of 4; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, with a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5700; the spread between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber remained unchanged at 850; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5918 to 5929, with a change of 11; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5918 to 5929, with a change of 11; carbonated polyester bottle chip price increased from 6018 to 6029, with a change of 11; outer market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 775; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 429 to 408, with a change of -21.02 [2] Yarn Price and Processing Fee - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3750; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14860 to 14900, with a change of 40; polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1340 to 1325, with a change of -15.12; primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7060; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 371 to 339, with a change of -32.02; primary low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7330 [2] Operating Rate and Sales Ratio - Direct-spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, with a change of -0.01; polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 56.00% to 57.00%, with a change of 1.00%; polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) decreased from 65.00% to 66.00%, with a change of -0.01; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, with a change of -0.06 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market is waiting for the peace - talk information between the US and a European country. International oil prices are weak, and PTA has insufficient cost support. With a weak supply - demand structure, the PTA market declined slightly today. The PTA supply has shrunk, and port inventories have decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, but alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. PTA basis has weakened, and market replenishment willingness has declined [2] - The coal price has rebounded, driving up the ethylene glycol price. However, the macro - sentiment has weakened slightly, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may significantly affect the market. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, downstream weaving profits have shrunk, and terminal loads have significantly declined, which is a negative impact on the market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 501.0 yuan/barrel on August 7th to 489.8 yuan/barrel on August 8th, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased from 1047.2 yuan/ton to 1124.6 yuan/ton, a rise of 77.39 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2876 to 1.3159, an increase of 0.0283. The PTA main - contract futures price dropped from 4688 yuan/ton to 4684 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price dropped from 4690 yuan/ton to 4670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 150.6 yuan/ton to 191.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 41.2 yuan/ton. The futures - based processing fee increased from 163.6 yuan/ton to 205.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 42.2 yuan/ton. The PTA main - contract basis increased from (20) to (18), an increase of 2.0. The PTA warehouse - receipt quantity remained unchanged at 33459 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 840 to 831, a decrease of 9. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 259 to 261, an increase of 2 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main - contract futures price dropped from 4396 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (90.51) yuan/ton to (89.70) yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price dropped from 4486 to 4465, a decrease of 21.0. The MEG main - contract basis decreased from 76 to 73, a decrease of 3.0 [2] 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 78.11%. PTA operating rate dropped from 76.09% to 74.50%, a decrease of 1.59%. MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 58.15%. Polyester load remained unchanged at 87.09% [2] 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price dropped from 6665 to 6660, a decrease of 5.0. POY cash flow increased from (98) to (79), an increase of 19.0. FDY150D/96F price dropped from 6965 to 6960, a decrease of 5.0. FDY cash flow increased from (298) to (279), an increase of 19.0. DTY150D/48F price dropped from 7910 to 7890, a decrease of 20.0. DTY cash flow increased from (23) to (49), an increase of 4.0. Polyester filament production and sales increased from 38% to 40%, an increase of 2% [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6550. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 137 to 161, an increase of 24.0. Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 46% to 57%, an increase of 11% [2] - **Polyester Chips**: Semi - bright chip price dropped from 5805 to 5795, a decrease of 10.0. Chip cash flow increased from (58) to (44), an increase of 14.0. Chip production and sales decreased from 92% to 89%, a decrease of 3% [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 720 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw - material logistics [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Commodity sentiment has weakened, PTA basis has weakened and trading volume has declined. Domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance period. Market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. Overall polyester inventory is not high, and polyester load has dropped to 88% [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4825 to 4750, a decrease of 75 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4503 to 4480, a decrease of 23 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6650 to 6600, a decrease of 50 [2] Price and Spread Changes of Polyester Staple Fiber - Short fiber basis increased from 136 to 140, an increase of 4 [2] - The 8 - 9 spread increased from 18 to 48, an increase of 30 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber decreased from 900 to 850, a decrease of 50 [2] Price and Processing Fee Changes of Polyester Bottle Chips - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price dropping by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The domestic and foreign prices of various types of bottle chips all decreased, and the bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 386 to 359, a decrease of 26.83 [2] Price and Profit Changes of Polyester Yarn - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300, and the processing fee increased from 3650 to 3700, an increase of 50 [2] - The price of polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16300, and the profit increased from 1297 to 1335, an increase of 38.82 [2] Load and Production and Sales Changes - Direct-spun staple fiber load decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a decrease of 0.01. Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 43.00% to 50.00%, an increase of 7.00%. Polyester yarn startup rate decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a decrease of 0.01. The regenerated cotton-type load index decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a decrease of 0.06 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, and the port inventory of PTA has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market's port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens. However, the basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish has declined [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and has been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, to 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, with a change of 2.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1014.6 yuan/ton to 947.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 67.62 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: It decreased from 1.2641 to 1.2453, a change of - 0.0189 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price dropped from 866 to 858, a change of - 8 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It decreased from 277 to 250, a change of - 27 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4856 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: It decreased from 4860 to 4825 yuan/ton, a change of - 35.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: It increased from 179.3 yuan/ton to 189.0 yuan/ton, a change of 9.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: It decreased from 185.3 yuan/ton to 177.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from (10) to (15), a change of - 5.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 29738 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4450 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, a change of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: It decreased from (112.68) to (116.87) yuan/ton, a change of - 4.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: It decreased from 4527 to 4503 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 79.45% to 76.64%, a change of - 2.81% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 58.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: Remained unchanged at 6760 [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from (162) to (124), a change of 38.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: Increased from 7060 to 7065, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (362) to (319), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: Increased from 7955 to 7960, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from (167) to (124), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Decreased from 6665 to 6650, a change of - 15 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 93 to 116, a change of 23.0 [2]. - **Semi - Bright Polyester Chip**: Decreased from 5920 to 5905, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Polyester Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (102) to (79), a change of 23.0 [2]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Long - Filament Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 110% to 27%, a change of - 83% [2]. - **Short - Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: Increased from 42% to 49%, a change of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 89% to 72%, a change of - 17% [2]. 5. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].