1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪弱势，钢矿承压下行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.56%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应高位平稳运行，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延续弱势格局，叠 加商品情绪偏弱，淡季钢价承压偏弱运行，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱运行，录得 1.24%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均维持高位，基本面弱势运行，叠加商品情绪不佳， 热卷承压偏弱运行，且需谨防需求走弱引发产业矛盾激化，关注需求表 现情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong overall sentiment, driven by supply reductions and cost support, despite weak demand conditions [3] Supply - As of January 2026, the estimated crude steel production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The production forecast for February is 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and initiating maintenance ahead of the holiday season [2] Inventory - Social inventory has slightly accumulated, with a trend of decreasing warehouse receipts [2] - As of January 30, the social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,950 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The nickel ore market is tight due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines, with nickel ore premiums rising to $28-32 per wet ton [3] - The high-nickel pig iron market is experiencing weak inquiries, leading to a narrowing of price increases [3] - The chromium iron market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply growth [3] Demand - Demand is weak, with traditional and emerging sectors showing reduced purchasing activity due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on production from the 300 series stainless steel is 485,000 tons due to maintenance and production cuts [3] Price Outlook - The main price reference is set between 14,200 and 15,200, with expectations of strong fluctuations in the short term [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.12%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应平稳，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延续弱势，淡季钢价承压运 行，相对利好则是商品情绪偏暖，乐观情绪主导下钢价震荡企稳，关注 库存变化情况。 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡走高 热轧卷板：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.79%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均维持 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.32%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应增加，而需求表现疲弱，供增需弱局面下基本面持续走弱， 淡季钢价易承压，相对利好则是商品情绪偏暖，预计走势延续低位震荡 运行态势，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷产量有所回落，而需求同样走弱，供需双减局面下产业格局弱 稳运行，但库存偏高，价格仍易承 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, with the fundamentals operating weakly. Steel prices in the off - season continue to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. Subsequently, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily decrease of 0.09%, also showing decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, hot - rolled coil supply is continuously increasing while demand has slightly declined. Both supply and demand are at high levels, and the supply - increasing and demand - weakening fundamentals are operating weakly, putting pressure on prices. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. It is expected that the price trend will maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.06%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, iron ore supply remains at a high level, and the improvement in demand is limited. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and inventories are rising at a high level, with weak upward drivers. The relatively positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5%. The total value of imports and exports reached a new high, and China will continue to maintain its position as the world's largest goods trading country [7]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached new historical highs, with production at 34.531 million vehicles and sales at 34.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. It has ranked first in the world for 17 consecutive years. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for over 50% of domestic new vehicle sales. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, and exports of new energy vehicles reached 2.615 million vehicles, doubling year - on - year [8]. - In 2025, China exported 119.019 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%, and imported 517,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. From January to December, China imported 6.059 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. From January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,341 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan, and the national average price was 3,308 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,970 yuan. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,110 yuan. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 821 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis): The price was 782 yuan. - Ocean freight: Australia was 7.56 yuan, and Brazil was 20.83 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 108.19 yuan. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): The price was 108.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,162 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 764,719 contracts, a decrease of 73,160 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,691,461 contracts, an increase of 3,518 contracts [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,306 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%. The trading volume was 309,018 contracts, a decrease of 95,043 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,448,875 contracts, an increase of 8,625 contracts [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 821.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 238,116 contracts, a decrease of 73,505 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 662,688 contracts, an increase of 9,381 contracts [14]. Related Charts - Steel inventories: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [16]. - Iron ore inventories: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (inventory and its monthly change, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [24]. - Steel mill production: Included charts of the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [31]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory. Building steel mills are continuously resuming production, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and has room for further increase. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. High - frequency transactions have rebounded due to holiday factors, but both are still at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. Subsequently, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [41]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much. Plate steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and is at a relatively high level, and the high inventory level has not alleviated the supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency daily transactions are at a low level. The relatively positive factor is that the production of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, providing support for hot - rolled coil demand, but industrial contradictions are accumulating, and export performance is average, so there are concerns about demand. It is expected that the price trend will maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is operating weakly, and inventories are continuously rising. Steel mills are starting to resume production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills increased month - on - month, but the overall increase was not large. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the off - season steel market can hardly accommodate a large - scale increase in production, so the room for improvement in iron ore demand is limited and the positive effect is weak. Meanwhile, port arrivals are continuously increasing, and the shipments of miners are weakly stable, both at relatively high levels. Overseas iron ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply is also rebounding, so iron ore supply remains at a relatively high level. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.60%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing open interest. With supply increasing and demand weak, the fundamental contradiction has accumulated. Although the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, the rebar price is expected to continue the oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil also oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.55%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. In the current situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are weak, and the price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and its trend is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.92%, and both volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the supply of iron ore is high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and pre - holiday restocking support. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price maintains a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, 482 projects started across the country with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start - up investment in December were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of January 12, 2026, 21 car companies announced their 2025 production and sales data. These 21 car companies sold a total of 25.0233 million vehicles in 2025. BYD led the domestic market with sales of 4.6024 million vehicles. SAIC Group ranked first in production with 4.602 million vehicles in 2025, followed by BYD with 4.5374 million vehicles. 18 car companies saw their sales increase in 2025. XPeng Motors had the highest growth rate of 125.94%, followed by Leapmotor with 103.10%, and BAIC BluePark with 84.06% [8]. - Since January 12, 2026, Handan has launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which is expected to be lifted around January 17 due to poor atmospheric diffusion conditions [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan, and the national average was 3,341 yuan. The price changes were 20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 4 yuan respectively [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan, and the national average was 3,311 yuan. The price changes were 20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 5 yuan respectively [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,970 yuan with a change of - 10 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,090 yuan with no change [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 825 yuan with a change of 7 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet - basis): The price was 777 yuan with no change [10]. - Freight rates: Australian freight was 7.84 yuan with a change of - 0.08 yuan, and Brazilian freight was 21.13 yuan with a change of - 0.46 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 108.34 yuan with a change of 0.49 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR): The price was 108.50 yuan with a change of 0.30 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,165 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.60%. The highest price was 3,174 yuan, the lowest was 3,141 yuan, the trading volume was 957,432 lots (a decrease of 212,075 lots), and the open interest was 1,726,703 lots (an increase of 11,840 lots) [13]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,311 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The highest price was 3,320 yuan, the lowest was 3,289 yuan, the trading volume was 408,729 lots (a decrease of 106,874 lots), and the open interest was 1,427,498 lots (an increase of 10,408 lots) [13]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 822.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92%. The highest price was 826.0 yuan, the lowest was 817.0 yuan, the trading volume was 272,044 lots (an increase of 1,717 lots), and the open interest was 654,834 lots (an increase of 14,950 lots) [13]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 - 2026 [15][21][25]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, inventory of 247 steel mills, and inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [23][24][26]. - Steel mill production: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][33][35]. 5. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened. The weekly output increased by 2.82 tons, and the demand decreased by 25.48 tons. With the accumulation of fundamental contradictions, the rebar price is under pressure in the off - season. Although there is positive commodity sentiment and cost support, it is expected to continue the oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output increased by 1.00 tons, and the demand decreased by 2.43 tons. With high inventory and weakening demand, the price is under pressure. Although the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The inventory is rising, and the demand improvement is limited due to the poor profitability of steel mills and the off - season steel market. The supply is at a relatively high level. Although there is warm commodity sentiment and pre - holiday restocking support, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 1.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Supported by the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the rebar price rebounded from a low level. However, with continuous supply increase and weak demand, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the price in the off - season remains under pressure. The cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 1.02%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the positive commodity sentiment and the strong performance of raw materials have led to a rebound of the hot - rolled coil price from a low level. But the fundamentals have not improved under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain an oscillating state. Be cautious of the trading logic returning to the industrial side, and pay attention to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.73%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. At present, the supply of iron ore is high, while the improvement of demand is limited, and the fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, so the ore price continues to be under pressure. The positive factors are the positive commodity sentiment and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price maintains a high - level oscillating state. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, China's PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month. The purchasing price of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; it increased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month. In 2025, the PPI decreased by 2.6% for the whole year, and the purchasing price of industrial producers decreased by 3.0% [7]. - The Ministry of Water Resources aims to maintain large - scale and high - level water infrastructure construction and investment in 2026, ensuring a good start for water - related work during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [8]. - The iron ore project in Amapá, Brazil, owned 35.7% by British company Cadence Minerals, has obtained a preliminary environmental permit. The project is working on restarting production, with the initial restart time expected to be in 2026. The plant is expected to produce 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron ore concentrate annually, and the production may gradually increase to 5.5 million tons per year [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,260, 3,200, and 3,340 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 10, and - 10. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,190, and 3,306 respectively, with price changes of - 20, - 20, and - 13. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,090 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,170 [10]. - The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 817 with a change of 2, the price of Tangshan iron ore concentrate was 782 with no change. The ocean freight from Australia was 7.92 (down 0.26) and from Brazil was 21.59 (down 0.46). The SGX swap price (current month) was 107.85 (down 1.00), and the Platts index (CFR) was 108.20 (down 1.05) [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,144, with a decline of 1.10%, the highest price was 3,174, the lowest was 3,128, the trading volume was 1,169,507 (down 181,095), and the open interest was 1,714,863 (down 66,939) [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3,294, with a decline of 1.02%, the highest price was 3,317, the lowest was 3,274, the trading volume was 515,603 (down 181,277), and the open interest was 1,417,090 (down 23,805) [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 814.5, with a decline of 0.73%, the highest price was 819.0, the lowest was 809.5, the trading volume was 270,327 (down 172,278), and the open interest was 639,884 (up 3,210) [12]. 4. Related Charts - The section includes charts related to steel inventory (rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (port inventory, steel mill inventory, domestic mine inventory), and steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization, proportion of profitable steel mills, etc.) [14][22][29]. 5. Future Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased significantly, and construction steel mills are resuming production. The weekly output of rebar increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month, and supply continues to rise with room for further increase. Demand continues to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. Although high - frequency trading volume has rebounded due to holiday factors, both are still at low levels in recent years. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Plate steel mills' production has stabilized, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and remains at a relatively high level, and inventory is also high, so supply pressure persists. Demand has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month, and daily high - frequency trading volume is at a low level. Although the high output of downstream cold - rolled products provides some support for hot - rolled coil demand, industrial contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory continues to rise. Steel mills are resuming production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the overall increase is small. The improvement space of ore demand is limited, and the positive effect is not strong. Port arrivals have increased, and miner shipments have declined from a high level. Overseas ore supply is high, and domestic ore supply is shrinking, so the overall supply pressure remains. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating state under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.71%, and the volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded while demand is seasonally weak, with a weak fundamental situation. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season. However, the positive commodity sentiment means that the steel price is expected to continue an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil has improved while the supply is at a low level, and the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing price support. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.58%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and positive commodity sentiment, iron ore is at a high level. However, the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high, with a weak fundamental situation and limited upward driving force. It is expected to continue a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among the main industries in the machinery industry, the total profit of 5 major industries increased, including a 4.8% increase in the general equipment manufacturing industry, 4.6% in the special equipment manufacturing industry, 7.5% in the automobile manufacturing industry, 4.2% in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and 3% in the instrument and meter manufacturing industry [7]. - According to the production schedule report of three major white - goods released by Industrial Online, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in January 2026 was 34.53 million units, a 6% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners in January was 18.51 million units, an 11% increase; the production schedule of refrigerators was 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase; and the production schedule of washing machines was 8.1 million units, a 1.8% decrease [8]. - As of December 27, 14 steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring. To date, 264 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, Tianjin was 3,170 yuan, and the national average was 3,326 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,280 yuan, Tianjin was 3,180 yuan, and the national average was 3,294 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,940 yuan. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,090 yuan. - PB powder (Shandong ports): The price was 799 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 782 yuan. - Shipping costs: Australia was 8.89 yuan, and Brazil was 23.43 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 107.15 yuan. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 107.85 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,130 yuan, with a 0.71% increase, the highest price was 3,150 yuan, the lowest was 3,116 yuan, the trading volume was 1,051,146 lots, a decrease of 81,487 lots, the open interest was 1,530,792 lots, a decrease of 3,632 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,287 yuan, with a 0.55% increase, the highest price was 3,308 yuan, the lowest was 3,280 yuan, the trading volume was 511,982 lots, an increase of 21,578 lots, the open interest was 1,276,297 lots, an increase of 43,907 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 796.5 yuan, with a 2.58% increase, the highest price was 803.0 yuan, the lowest was 782.0 yuan, the trading volume was 461,928 lots, an increase of 170,810 lots, the open interest was 629,681 lots, an increase of 48,950 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, 45 - port iron ore inventory, and 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, as well as charts on steel mill production such as blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [16][21][29]. 5. Future Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. Rebar weekly production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week, and supply continues to rebound but remains at a relatively low level. Demand is seasonally weak, with both weekly apparent demand and daily high - frequency transactions declining. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, and it is expected to continue an oscillatory trend due to positive commodity sentiment [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, with an expanding inventory decline. Weekly production increased by 16,300 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low level within the year. Demand is showing improvement, with weekly apparent demand increasing by 87,600 tons week - on - week. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the high inventory level limits the upward driving force. It is expected to continue an oscillatory trend [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, with port inventory rising to a high level. Steel mill production is stable, and terminal ore consumption is stable. Overseas ore supply is positive, with a significant increase in miner shipments. It is expected to continue a high - level oscillatory trend, and the pre - holiday steel mill restocking is a positive factor [38].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market shows a mixed trend, with different agricultural products having their own price movements and influencing factors. For example, natural rubber prices rose due to strong commodity sentiment, but face potential pressure from hedging; while soybean - related products are affected by factors such as South American harvest expectations and domestic inventory levels [1][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 (1)油脂 - **观点**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Pay attention to the changes in domestic and international oil production and demand expectations. - **Logic**: Concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest led to a bearish trend in US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. The macro - environment includes a strong US Q3 GDP and a weakening US dollar, and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical concerns. From the industrial side, South American soybean harvest expectations are strong, US soybean demand is uncertain, domestic soybean inventories are high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period in December, and the probability of inventory reduction in the origin is high. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. The oil market is facing a game of multiple factors and may continue to fluctuate in the near future [5]. (2)蛋白粕 - **观点**: Inventory pressure persists, and the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) prices fluctuate at a low level. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean market is closed during the Christmas period. US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and exports to China grew slowly. South American soybeans have a good production outlook. Domestically, spot and basis are stable, soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, downstream aquaculture is in a loss, and consumption is not strong during the peak season. The purchase volume of imported soybeans in Q4 2025 decreased year - on - year, while that in Q1 2026 increased year - on - year. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [6]. (3)玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. - **Logic**: In the upstream, snow in the Northeast has slowed down the grain - selling process, and in the North China region, the purchase of local corn has increased. In the downstream, feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have different inventory and procurement strategies. The market is in a tight - balance state, with prices having both upward and downward pressures, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain - selling progress, and downstream profits [8][9]. (4)生猪 - **观点**: The increase in secondary fattening in some areas has led to a stop in the decline of pig prices and a rebound. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the short - term supply of large pigs is increasing, the medium - term supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until April 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. In terms of demand, the demand during the Winter Solstice has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of pigs has increased. In the short - term, the increase in consumption has driven the rebound of pig prices, but high - weight pigs may limit the price increase. In the medium - term, the supply - demand situation is generally loose, and in the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to gradually weaken. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. The near - term prices are expected to be weak, while the far - term prices are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [10]. (5)天然橡胶 - **观点**: Strong commodity sentiment has driven up rubber prices. - **Logic**: Natural rubber prices rose strongly yesterday, mainly due to macro - level driving. Although it slightly broke through the shock range, there may still be large hedging pressure above. The current fundamentals lack strong driving forces. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is still a risk of decline. The demand side is weak. If there is no continuous capital inflow, rubber prices are likely to return to the range - bound market. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and rubber prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with no obvious trend - based single - side market [12]. (6)合成橡胶 - **观点**: The market rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The BR contract recovered all the previous day's losses and rose slightly. It is favored by funds due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of the BR contract. The butadiene market price fluctuated upward last week, but there was resistance to high - price transactions later. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is still short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term [14]. (7)棉花 - **观点**: The rebound continues. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are expected to rise, mainly due to the possible tight - balance situation in the new year and potential positive policies. Currently, commercial inventories are accumulating during the peak cotton - listing period. The planting policy is expected to tighten next year, which may lead to a decrease in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [14]. (8)白糖 - **观点**: Short - sellers taking profits have driven up sugar prices. - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract rebounded from the low level. Short - sellers taking profits was the main reason for the sharp rise. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is still at a high level, and the new - season production in the Northern Hemisphere shows different trends. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply in the new season. In the domestic market, the supply of sugar will increase marginally. - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, as the new - season global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [16]. (9)纸浆 - **观点**: The warming atmosphere in the commodity market has led to a fluctuating and rising trend in pulp futures. - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuated at a high level yesterday. The fundamental factors include both positive and negative aspects. The positive factors are more likely to be realized in the short - term, and the negative factors are mainly related to the transmission of high prices in the long - term. Overall, the positive factors in the pulp market are more, which will push up the bottom of the futures price. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate strongly. Positive news will lift the bottom, but the hedging pressure above still exists [17]. (10)双胶纸 - **观点**: Fluctuate. - **Logic**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable. Some paper mills have announced price - increase plans for January 2026, which slightly boosts market confidence. However, the supply - surplus situation is difficult to change, and the market expectation is cautious. The supply pressure still exists, downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand is in a weak - balance state. - **Outlook**: The weak supply - demand pattern is expected to continue, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to whether paper mills will shut down production [18]. (11)原木 - **观点**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and logs are expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Logic**: The current contradiction in the log market lies in the realization process of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the futures price of the 03 contract has a certain support level. In the medium - term, the arrival pressure is expected to be relieved, and there are game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to reverse - spread or low - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts [20]. 2.品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋⽩粕", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: - The special index shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. - **板块指数**: - The agricultural product index on December 24, 2025, increased by 0.31% today, with a 0.63% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.86% change in the past month, and a - 3.52% change since the beginning of the year [178][180].