作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 1.02%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，商品情绪偏暖，叠加原料走势偏强，热卷价格低位回升，但供增需 弱局面下基本面并未好转，上行驱动不强，预计走势维持震荡运行态 势，谨防交易逻辑回归产业端，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.73%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，铁矿石供应偏高，而需求改善受限，矿石基本面并未改善，矿价继 续承压，相对利好则是商品情绪偏暖与节前补库预期，多空因素博 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪变换，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.71%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应有所回升，而需求季节性走弱，基本面表现偏弱，淡季钢价 承压运行，相对利好的是商品情绪偏暖，预期现实博弈钢价延续震荡运 行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.55%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷需求迎改善，而供应处于低位，供需格局有所好转，给予价格 支撑，但需求韧性存疑，且库存水 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-25 商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 油脂：昨日菜油偏强，关注国内外油脂产需预期变化 蛋白粕：库存压力持续，双粕低位震荡 玉米/淀粉：降雪天气，阶段性影响产区上量 生猪：部分区域二育增加，猪价止跌反弹 天然橡胶：商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 合成橡胶：盘面跌后反弹 棉花：反弹延续 白糖：空头获利了结，带动糖价反弹 纸浆：商品市场氛围回暖，纸浆期货维持震荡偏涨 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点：商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 逻辑：天胶昨日强势上涨，其中浅色胶RU相较于NR更强，收盘时已经突破 近3个月的震荡区间上沿。昨日偏强表现背后的原因我们认为更多来自于 宏观的带动，即整体商品资金的情绪大好。不过虽说小幅突破震荡区间， 但听闻盘后上游出货偏多，盘面上方套保压力或依旧偏大。目前来说从基 本面的角度仍属于没有强驱动的阶段，且地缘炒作我们认为暂时难以验证 实质影响，需持续关注。基本面具体来说，目前海外供应季节性上量相对 顺利，但原料价格坚挺一 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, while having strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and the index fluctuates while having strong support below [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress downstream demand, and market risk preference declines, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial driving force is limited in the near term, and the price maintains high - level fluctuations [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity continues to be released, production and inventory increase, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the risk of cornering the market drives the price up. The price is expected to remain high, but chasing high prices requires caution due to domestic over - supply [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price may rebound with fluctuations, but beware of high inventory suppression. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is over - supply [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the production schedule in October is stable. The futures price fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range in the short term, with support below. Pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff ruling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity resumes, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season weakens. Polysilicon production in November decreases [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates. The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is coming, energy storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, pay attention to the upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand are supportive, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It follows glass, but the supply and demand are average, and the upward resistance of the price is large [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's trend is tangled near the previous high, and coke's high - point price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases. The steel - coke game is intense, and the price may return to the shock range [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short term. A rebound may occur if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The purchase of US soybeans by China may bring a loose expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders brings a relaxation expectation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed presses the price [1]. - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton demand is uncertain. The downward space of the futures price is limited, but the basis and the futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: The price has seasonal upward momentum in the short term, but the rebound space is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The supply still faces selling pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a medium - to - long - term rebound expected [1]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean futures are expected to follow the US market and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the global supply pattern restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. The downward pressure on the futures price is large, and a 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price follows the spot price and stabilizes and then weakens. There is still pressure on the supply in November [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bearish. The cost support weakens, and the supply is loose [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price follows the decline of crude oil, but the cost support from coal strengthens slightly [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price follows the cost closely, and the basis strengthens [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene plants decreases [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and the upward space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **PE**: The inventory pressure is large under high supply, the maintenance intensity weakens, and the downstream demand increases slowly [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large due to reduced maintenance and new production capacity, but the cost support strengthens [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a risk of cornering the market due to planned alumina production in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic spot market stabilizes [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: Macro - positive sentiment is digested, the expected price increase in the peak season is pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report Although the current fundamentals of manganese - silicon are still unfavorable, based on several interesting points, a possible scenario of a trend - rising market is "imagined" under the combination of "unexpected events in the manganese ore sector" and "a turn in commodity sentiment". This scenario, while not guaranteed to materialize, is worthy of attention, especially when the market generally believes that ferroalloys lack market drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese - silicon's Current Situation and Past Analysis - The ferroalloy market has been dull, and in a previous June 2025 report, it was thought that under extremely pessimistic conditions, manganese - silicon prices might reach the "4" level. However, after the 20th Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, the coal price rose and the commodity market's pessimistic atmosphere improved. But the manganese - silicon price did not rise significantly due to its loose fundamentals and lack of effective drivers [4]. - Currently, the supply of manganese - silicon remains high and demand is weak (mainly in the building materials sector), with the loose pattern unchanged and high visible inventory. The price is at a low - valuation state, with the Inner Mongolia cost around 5800 yuan/ton (Steel Union's data) and 5700 yuan/ton (Ferroalloy Online's data), and the current market price close to 5800 yuan/ton [5]. Objective Signals from the Manganese - silicon Market - The manganese - silicon market price (using the weighted index as an example) has gradually converged and is approaching the end of the convergence range after a long - term consolidation. Meanwhile, its volatility (VIX) has dropped to a low level. This combination usually indicates that the commodity may make a directional choice and potentially start a trending market [8][10]. Similarities in the Commodity Environment - The current situation, including the sharp rise of gold and silver, the start of copper's upward trend, and other commodities' stabilization and recovery, gives a strong sense of similarity to the commodity environment in the first quarter and early second quarter of 2024. At that time, gold, silver, and copper led the way, driving up commodity sentiment and causing significant increases in some low - valued and fundamentally - driven commodities. Currently, the commodity market is starting to turn bullish, but it may take time for positive sentiment to accumulate and spread [15][19]. Potential Drivers from the Manganese Ore Sector - Historically, manganese - silicon market drivers mainly come from the supply side or cost - push factors such as environmental inspections, power shortages, and manganese ore issues. However, due to "dual - carbon" reforms and the substitution of thermal power by solar and wind power, the likelihood of environmental inspections or power shortages driving the market is low. - Since this year, although Australian ore shipments have become more regular, port manganese ore inventories have remained at significantly low levels compared to the same period in the past six years, resulting in relatively resilient manganese ore prices and providing a basis for a manganese ore - related narrative. But for a significant upward trend in manganese - silicon, an "unexpected event" in manganese ore supply from major importing countries is needed, and the market is "waiting for the wind" [22][30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend under the game of long and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the commodity sentiment is warm and the ore price is at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - There are changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. During the holiday, steel mill production was weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level. Considering the increasing contradictions in the steel market, the positive effects are weakening [2]. - During the holiday, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports was high. With high ore prices, overseas ore shipments were active, and the domestic ore supply will resume after the holiday, increasing the supply pressure [2]. - After the holiday, the commodity sentiment is warm, and the demand has certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the ore supply remains at a high level, the fundamental outlook is weakening, and the upward driving force is not strong [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report MEG - The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol (MEG) is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4400. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options with an exercise price of 4150 [1][3][5]. PX - TA - In the short term, the absolute price of the PX - TA industry chain is under pressure, but the compression space is limited. It is advisable to consider cautious long positions or expand the TA - SC spread. For the processing fee, it is recommended to expand the TA01 contract processing fee below 270 [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs MEG Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The total load remains stable at 74.93% (+0.02%), with coal - based load rising to 79.38% (+2.69%). The port inventory is expected to increase by about 10,000 tons. The coal - based marginal profit is under significant pressure [2]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand is lackluster, and the speculative sentiment is weak. The bottle - chip processing fee has improved [2]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and MEG in East China decreased from 4378 to 4352 yuan/ton [8]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the MEG coal - based profit dropped from 39 to - 64 yuan/ton [8][10]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased from 45.9 to 46.5 tons [9]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of MEG show certain fluctuations, with production, import, and demand changing over time [12]. Maintenance Situation - Many domestic and foreign MEG devices are in maintenance, such as Xinjiang Tianye Phase III, which was restarted and then shut down again, and two sets of Shell's devices in the United States are under maintenance [1][15]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The PX load is adjusted down to 86.3% (-1.5%), and the PTA load remains stable at 76.8%. The PX is expected to accumulate inventory by about 100,000 tons in September [6]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak [7]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and PTA in East China decreased from 4565 to 4555 yuan/ton [10]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the PTA domestic processing fee increased from 115 to 151 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The PTA social inventory increased from 208 to 210 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of PX - TA change over time, with production, import, and demand showing different trends [13]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX and PTA devices are under maintenance, such as Fuhai Dahua's 700,000 - ton PX line and Zhongtai Petrochemical's PTA device [6][17][18]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has slightly increased [2][7]. Key Data - Price: POY decreased from 6650 to 6625 yuan/ton, and FDY dropped from 7025 to 6875 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread and profit: The POY processing fee increased from 185 to 207 yuan/ton, and the FDY processing fee decreased from 110 to 7 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory: The POY inventory days increased from 19.3 to 21.7 days, and the FDY inventory days increased from 21.4 to 22.7 days [11]. Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester fiber filament and staple fiber shows certain fluctuations [112]. Export and Import - The export and import volumes of polyester products show different trends over time [116][119]. Profit - The processing profit of polyester products such as filament and staple fiber shows certain seasonal changes [121]. Downstream of Polyester Weaving - The weaving start - up rate remains stable, and the inventory of grey cloth is high. The order volume is insufficient [2][7]. Spinning Mill - The start - up rate of the spinning mill shows certain fluctuations, and the inventory of yarn is at a certain level [137][139]. Terminal Macro - The production and sales data of downstream products such as cloth, yarn, and soft drinks show certain seasonal changes [149][150][151]. Spinning and Clothing Export - The export volume and value index of textile and clothing show certain fluctuations [153][155][157]. Global Spinning and Clothing - The import, inventory, and export data of textile and clothing in countries such as the United States, Vietnam, and India show different trends [162][163][165].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon fundamentals have little change, with overall supply and demand basically balanced. It is expected to fluctuate following the overall commodity sentiment. The polysilicon market has a large - scale correction, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [2][4][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weak. The main contract 2511 opened at 8555 yuan/ton and closed at 8410 yuan/ton, a change of - 135 yuan/ton (- 1.58%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 held 286040 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49955, a change of 33 from the previous day [2] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable. Due to a 400 - yuan/ton increase in coal prices, the price of bonding silicon coal in Xinjiang rose by about 270 yuan/ton to 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption Side**: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10500 - 10800 yuan/ton. Due to the non - appearance of the traditional "Golden September" peak season effect and the on - demand procurement strategy, the demand release was not concentrated, and the DMC price rebound faced resistance. In the short term, the domestic DMC price will mainly fluctuate slightly [3] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 9, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 had a large - scale correction, opening at 55555 yuan/ton and closing at 53520 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.73% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 142980 positions (154011 in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 584927 [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. The price of N - type material was 49.20 - 54.00 yuan/kg (- 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 21.10, a change of - 0.90% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW, a change of - 6.65% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 30200.00 tons, a change of - 2.58% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer production was 13.78GW, a change of 3.53% week - on - week [5] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.28 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.63 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 yuan/piece [5] - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Cross - period**: None - **Cross - variety**: None - **Spot - futures**: None - **Options**: None [4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation - **Cross - period**: None - **Cross - variety**: None - **Spot - futures**: None - **Options**: None [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, and its futures market is mainly fluctuating with the overall commodity sentiment. For polysilicon, the spot price center has moved up, but the market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][8] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (3.66%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 283,578 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, an increase of 553 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton. The total social inventory in major regions on August 21 was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from last week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton this week, down 500 yuan/ton from last week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' prices were 11,000 - 11,500 yuan/ton, down 500 - 1000 yuan/ton from last week [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 52,200 yuan/ton and closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.28% from the previous trading day. The position was 149,610 lots, and the trading volume was 447,553 lots [5] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% change; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a - 12.07% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 29,100 tons, a - 0.68% change; the silicon wafer output was 12.29GW, a 1.57% change [5] Other Products - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.21 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.56 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.36 yuan/piece [7] - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7] Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price remains stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly this week. The fundamentals have changed little, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment [3] Polysilicon - In the short - term, it is suitable for range trading. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]