新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-22 基本面变化不大，工业硅多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-08-21，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2511开于8420元/吨，最后收于8635元/吨，较前一日结算变化（305） 元/吨，变化（3.66）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓283578手，2025-08-21仓单总数为51166手，较前一日变化 553手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9700 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8600（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8400-8500（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。。 SMM统计8月21日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.7万吨， 较上周环比持平，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-11500（0）元/吨。SMM报道，本周山东单体 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and the port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market port inventory has been depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish inventory has declined [2]. - Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical sector has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, have experienced continuous delays in maintenance, which may have a significant impact on the future market. This has also been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease. Polyester sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has had a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - **PTA**: The market risk preference has recovered, and the crude oil price has slightly increased during the day, strengthening the cost support. The PTA supply side has seen both restarts and maintenance. The PTA spot price has slightly increased following the futures price. On August 12, 2025, the PTA main futures price was 4726 yuan/ton, the spot price was 4705 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee was 218.3 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee was 229.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The spot negotiation price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4507 - 4509 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The ethylene glycol futures have maintained a relatively strong trend, and the spot price has continued to rise, while the basis negotiation has slightly weakened [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 76.56%, the MEG start - up rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 58.74%, and the polyester load decreased by 0.21 percentage points to 86.88% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6730 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7095 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F increased by 30 yuan/ton to 7935 yuan/ton. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY were - 51, - 186, and - 46 respectively, with changes of - 10, 40, and 20 compared to the previous day. The sales of polyester filament increased from 40% to 41% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased by 20 yuan/ton to 6570 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to 139, and the sales increased from 57% to 58% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5815 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to - 66, and the sales increased from 89% to 115% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Commodity sentiment has weakened, PTA basis has weakened and trading volume has declined. Domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, and PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The overall polyester inventory is not high, and the polyester load has dropped to 88% [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Spot Price and Closing Price - PTA spot price increased from 4670 to 4700, with a change of 30; MEG domestic price increased from 4465 to 4484, with a change of 19; PTA closing price increased from 4684 to 4706, with a change of 22; MEG closing price increased from 4384 to 4414, with a change of 30 [2] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Price - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6550; short fiber basis increased from 152 to 155, with a change of 3; 8 - 9 spread decreased from 32 to 28, with a change of 4; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, with a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5700; the spread between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber remained unchanged at 850; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5918 to 5929, with a change of 11; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5918 to 5929, with a change of 11; carbonated polyester bottle chip price increased from 6018 to 6029, with a change of 11; outer market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 775; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 429 to 408, with a change of -21.02 [2] Yarn Price and Processing Fee - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3750; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14860 to 14900, with a change of 40; polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1340 to 1325, with a change of -15.12; primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7060; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 371 to 339, with a change of -32.02; primary low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7330 [2] Operating Rate and Sales Ratio - Direct-spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, with a change of -0.01; polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 56.00% to 57.00%, with a change of 1.00%; polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) decreased from 65.00% to 66.00%, with a change of -0.01; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, with a change of -0.06 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market is waiting for the peace - talk information between the US and a European country. International oil prices are weak, and PTA has insufficient cost support. With a weak supply - demand structure, the PTA market declined slightly today. The PTA supply has shrunk, and port inventories have decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, but alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. PTA basis has weakened, and market replenishment willingness has declined [2] - The coal price has rebounded, driving up the ethylene glycol price. However, the macro - sentiment has weakened slightly, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may significantly affect the market. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, downstream weaving profits have shrunk, and terminal loads have significantly declined, which is a negative impact on the market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 501.0 yuan/barrel on August 7th to 489.8 yuan/barrel on August 8th, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased from 1047.2 yuan/ton to 1124.6 yuan/ton, a rise of 77.39 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2876 to 1.3159, an increase of 0.0283. The PTA main - contract futures price dropped from 4688 yuan/ton to 4684 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price dropped from 4690 yuan/ton to 4670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 150.6 yuan/ton to 191.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 41.2 yuan/ton. The futures - based processing fee increased from 163.6 yuan/ton to 205.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 42.2 yuan/ton. The PTA main - contract basis increased from (20) to (18), an increase of 2.0. The PTA warehouse - receipt quantity remained unchanged at 33459 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 840 to 831, a decrease of 9. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 259 to 261, an increase of 2 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main - contract futures price dropped from 4396 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (90.51) yuan/ton to (89.70) yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price dropped from 4486 to 4465, a decrease of 21.0. The MEG main - contract basis decreased from 76 to 73, a decrease of 3.0 [2] 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 78.11%. PTA operating rate dropped from 76.09% to 74.50%, a decrease of 1.59%. MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 58.15%. Polyester load remained unchanged at 87.09% [2] 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price dropped from 6665 to 6660, a decrease of 5.0. POY cash flow increased from (98) to (79), an increase of 19.0. FDY150D/96F price dropped from 6965 to 6960, a decrease of 5.0. FDY cash flow increased from (298) to (279), an increase of 19.0. DTY150D/48F price dropped from 7910 to 7890, a decrease of 20.0. DTY cash flow increased from (23) to (49), an increase of 4.0. Polyester filament production and sales increased from 38% to 40%, an increase of 2% [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6550. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 137 to 161, an increase of 24.0. Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 46% to 57%, an increase of 11% [2] - **Polyester Chips**: Semi - bright chip price dropped from 5805 to 5795, a decrease of 10.0. Chip cash flow increased from (58) to (44), an increase of 14.0. Chip production and sales decreased from 92% to 89%, a decrease of 3% [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 720 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw - material logistics [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Commodity sentiment has weakened, PTA basis has weakened and trading volume has declined. Domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance period. Market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. Overall polyester inventory is not high, and polyester load has dropped to 88% [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4825 to 4750, a decrease of 75 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4503 to 4480, a decrease of 23 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6650 to 6600, a decrease of 50 [2] Price and Spread Changes of Polyester Staple Fiber - Short fiber basis increased from 136 to 140, an increase of 4 [2] - The 8 - 9 spread increased from 18 to 48, an increase of 30 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber decreased from 900 to 850, a decrease of 50 [2] Price and Processing Fee Changes of Polyester Bottle Chips - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price dropping by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The domestic and foreign prices of various types of bottle chips all decreased, and the bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 386 to 359, a decrease of 26.83 [2] Price and Profit Changes of Polyester Yarn - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300, and the processing fee increased from 3650 to 3700, an increase of 50 [2] - The price of polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16300, and the profit increased from 1297 to 1335, an increase of 38.82 [2] Load and Production and Sales Changes - Direct-spun staple fiber load decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a decrease of 0.01. Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 43.00% to 50.00%, an increase of 7.00%. Polyester yarn startup rate decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a decrease of 0.01. The regenerated cotton-type load index decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a decrease of 0.06 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, and the port inventory of PTA has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market's port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens. However, the basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish has declined [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and has been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, to 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, with a change of 2.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1014.6 yuan/ton to 947.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 67.62 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: It decreased from 1.2641 to 1.2453, a change of - 0.0189 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price dropped from 866 to 858, a change of - 8 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It decreased from 277 to 250, a change of - 27 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4856 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: It decreased from 4860 to 4825 yuan/ton, a change of - 35.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: It increased from 179.3 yuan/ton to 189.0 yuan/ton, a change of 9.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: It decreased from 185.3 yuan/ton to 177.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from (10) to (15), a change of - 5.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 29738 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4450 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, a change of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: It decreased from (112.68) to (116.87) yuan/ton, a change of - 4.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: It decreased from 4527 to 4503 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 79.45% to 76.64%, a change of - 2.81% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 58.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: Remained unchanged at 6760 [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from (162) to (124), a change of 38.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: Increased from 7060 to 7065, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (362) to (319), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: Increased from 7955 to 7960, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from (167) to (124), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Decreased from 6665 to 6650, a change of - 15 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 93 to 116, a change of 23.0 [2]. - **Semi - Bright Polyester Chip**: Decreased from 5920 to 5905, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Polyester Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (102) to (79), a change of 23.0 [2]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Long - Filament Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 110% to 27%, a change of - 83% [2]. - **Short - Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: Increased from 42% to 49%, a change of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 89% to 72%, a change of - 17% [2]. 5. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - After the Politburo meeting on July 25 fell short of expectations, commodity sentiment cooled down, and today it hit rock - bottom. Most energy and chemical products, except for PVC and two types of rubber, mainly fluctuated with market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in sentiment and the trend of crude oil on the cost side [3][4] - Trump's remarks pressuring Russia briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has soared. The North American peak season is coming to an end, and the off - season is approaching. The supply - demand pressure for crude oil will gradually emerge [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: Trump's remarks briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply - demand pressure will gradually appear. The North American peak season is ending, and the off - season is approaching, with the United States' refined oil inventories increasing for three consecutive weeks and crude oil inventories starting to accumulate [5] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose and then fell today, with intraday fluctuations. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle, and the short - term support is at the 526 level [5] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply start - up has increased, port inventories have continued to accumulate, total inventories are at a historically high level compared to the same period, actual demand has not improved, and new device production is approaching. The fundamental driving force remains bearish [8] - Technical Analysis: Short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It continued to fall today and closed at a new low. The short - term pressure above is temporarily at the 7440 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: Precipitation disturbances in Hainan and Southeast Asia postponed the supply increase, but a new typhoon is moving north, and supply increase is a relatively certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The current rubber inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish [12] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 15120 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Supply device start - up has increased, synthetic rubber production has significantly rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The cost of butadiene has some support due to low port inventories, but the medium - term fundamental pressure on synthetic rubber remains high [17] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 11950 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: Polyester start - up continues to decline, demand expectations are pessimistic, supply start - up has rebounded, and supply - demand is weak. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [20] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20] PTA - Logic: Short - term supply - demand changes are not significant, inventory levels are not high, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. However, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [22] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22] PP - Logic: Downstream demand is sluggish, supply - side start - up fluctuates slightly, but previously shut - down devices will gradually restart, and new production capacity will be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to remain. Inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [24] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly cycle is close to breaking through but has not been confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply is at a high level compared to the same period, downstream demand is weak, short - term arrivals are normal, port inventories continue to accumulate, and overseas Iranian device start - up is stable. The short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to cost and recent sentiment drivers [29] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline/shock on the daily level, short - term decline structure. It fell with reduced positions today, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29] PVC - Logic: Supply has increased, demand remains sluggish during the off - season, inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [31] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It broke through downward with increased positions today, and the short - term trend reversal was confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Start - up has slightly decreased, demand is weak, port inventories fluctuate at a low level, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The fundamental driving force is weak. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [33] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear, but the 15 - minute level confirmed a decline. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [33] Plastic - Logic: Shut - down devices gradually restarted in late July, start - up has increased, downstream overall start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the delivery logic as the 09 basis weakens. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [37] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It has followed market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first fluctuated upward, then dropped to a short - term low and rebounded again. Except for EC2510, the prices of other monthly contracts slightly recovered. From the perspective of the positions of the top 20 institutions in the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract increased by 1960 lots to 28074 lots, the short positions increased by 2913 lots to 34037 lots, and the trading volume increased by 28898 lots to 83222 lots (bilateral). The Sino - US economic and trade talks basically continued the previously agreed tariff levels, having a neutral - slightly - positive impact on market sentiment. Commodity sentiment also drove up the EC price. However, some major shipping companies still lowered the spot freight rates, which set an upper limit on the increase of EC and brought certain negative factors to the market, causing the futures price to fall after rising to a certain level. For the future market, it is expected that the EC will likely fluctuate slightly downward, but the impact of commodity sentiment and the capital side needs to be vigilant [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand and Market Sentiment - **Positive Factors**: From July 28th to 29th, local time, the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden reached a consensus to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days, which had a neutral - slightly - positive impact on market sentiment [1][2]. - **Negative Factors**: CMA CGM lowered the spot freight quotes for the European line in the past three weeks [2]. Futures Market - **Contract Price Performance**: On July 30, 2025, except for EC2510, the prices of other monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures slightly recovered. For example, EC2508 closed at 2139.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.33% and a weekly decrease of 4.50%; EC2510 closed at 1468.7 points, with a daily increase of 0.60% and a weekly decrease of 4.44% [1][3]. - **Position and Trading Volume Changes**: For the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 1960 lots to 28074 lots, the short positions increased by 2913 lots to 34037 lots, and the trading volume increased by 28898 lots to 83222 lots (bilateral) [1]. Spot Market - **Container Shipping Quotes**: On August 7th, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1846, up $10 from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3102, up $10. On August 14th, the 20GP total quote was $1715, up $10, and the 40GP total quote was $2870, up $10. In the past three weeks, for Hapag - Lloyd's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the 20GP total quote was $1935, down $100, and the 40GP total quote was $3135, down $200 [5]. - **Global Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS for the European route was 2316.56 points, down 3.50%; for the US - West route, it was 1284.01 points, down 1.37%. SCFI for the European route was $2090/TEU, up 0.53%; for the US - West route, it was $2067/FEU, down 3.50%. XSI for the European line was $3399/FEU, down 0.03%; for the US - West line, it was $2179/FEU, down 2.2%. The FBX composite freight rate index was $2377/FEU, up 0.46% [6][7]. Port and Shipping Conditions - **Port Waiting Time**: On July 29th, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.808 days, down 0.179 days from the previous day; at Shanghai Port, it was 1.023 days, down 0.026 days; at Yantian Port, it was 1.097 days, down 0.044 days; at Singapore Port, it was 0.660 days, up 0.136 days; at Jakarta Port, it was 1.132 days, down 0.505 days; at Long Beach Port, it was 2.339 days, up 0.267 days; at Savannah Port, it was 1.222 days, up 0.084 days [11]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Ships**: On July 29th, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.867 knots, down 0.045 knots from the previous day; for 3000 + container ships, it was 14.700 knots, down 0.082 knots; for 1000 + container ships, it was 13.124 knots, up 0.055 knots. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 17, down 2 from the previous day [21]. Risk Management Strategies - **Space Management**: If a company has obtained shipping space but has full capacity or poor booking volume during the peak season and is worried about falling freight rates, it can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended entry range of 1700 - 1800 [1]. - **Cost Management**: If a shipping company increases blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and it wants to book space according to orders, it can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the booking cost in advance, with a recommended entry range of 1350 - 1450 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market has been affected by numerous non - fundamental factors recently. As August approaches, fundamentals will become the dominant factor. It is advisable for investors to adopt a light - position hedging strategy. The overall futures prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate, and basis and inventory can be used as benchmarks for hedging [3]. - For different varieties: - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors support prices, but there is supply pressure. The high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide short - term support. Oil prices will oscillate, and geopolitical risks should be monitored [9]. - Asphalt: Spot prices are falling, and futures prices fluctuate around 3600 yuan/ton. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is significant downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and reduced demand. It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Although there are negative factors, the current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil** - Price: Overnight prices rose. - Main logic: The risk of increased US sanctions on Russian oil has increased. There is supply pressure from OPEC +'s production increase, but high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide support. - Outlook: The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure will balance each other, leading to price oscillation. Geopolitical risks should be watched [9]. - **Asphalt** - Price: The main futures contract closed at 3602 yuan/ton, with spot prices in different regions varying. - Main logic: OPEC +'s production increase will put pressure on the cracking spread. The accumulation of floating storage and supply pressure on raw materials will affect futures prices. Demand is not strong enough for a bull market. - Outlook: The absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 2879 yuan/ton. - Main logic: OPEC +'s possible over - production, falling natural gas prices, and reduced power generation demand will lead to increased supply and decreased demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 3588 yuan/ton. - Main logic: It follows crude oil prices. There are negative factors such as reduced shipping demand, but the low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil. - Outlook: It will follow the oscillation of crude oil prices [12]. - **PX** - Price: On July 28, CFR China Taiwan was 851 (- 23) dollars/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment led to price drops, but the increase in crude oil prices at night provided cost support. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 4845 (- 55) yuan/ton. - Main logic: Weak polyester yarn sales, cooling commodity sentiment, but cost support remains. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in early August [14]. - **Pure Benzene** - Price: On July 28, the 2603 contract closed at 6241 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The improvement in fundamentals was limited by inventory pressure. - Outlook: The market may enter an oscillation period, and attention should be paid to high - level statements and Fed data [15]. - **Styrene** - Price: On July 28, the East China spot price was 7340 (- 160) yuan/ton. - Main logic: There is a weakening expectation in supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to commodity sentiment [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - Price: On July 28, the DCE main contract 2509 closed at 4436 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and typhoon - induced inventory reduction. However, supply is expected to increase in August and September. - Outlook: Inventory may reach an inflection point [17][18]. - **Short - fiber** - Price: On July 28, the PF2509 contract closed at 6482 yuan/ton. - Main logic: Cooling sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees will remain stable, and prices will follow raw materials [18][19]. - **Bottle - chip** - Price: On July 28, the East China market price dropped to 6035 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of "anti - involution" sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees have support, and prices will follow raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol** - Price: On July 28, the Taicang spot price was 2385 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and the drag from coal prices. There is limited impact from policies, and the upper price limit is restricted by downstream feedback. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Urea** - Price: On July 22, the factory - warehouse and market low prices were 1780 (+ 20) and 1830 (+ 20) yuan/ton respectively. - Main logic: Strong supply and weak demand. Market sentiment temporarily boosts prices, but the fundamental support is limited. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the return to fundamentals [22]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 7300 (- 50) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand in the off - season. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [25]. - **PP** - Price: On July 28, the East China PP拉丝 price was 7100 (- 40) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of macro - level sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [26][27]. - **PL** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong low - end price was 6170 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The short - term decline in commodity sentiment and the influence of PP and methanol fluctuations. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [27]. - **PVC** - Price: On July 28, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 5150 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment and fundamental pressure, with an expected increase in production and cost. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy details [29]. - **Caustic Soda** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong 32% caustic soda price was 2594 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment, low inventory in Shandong, and cost support. - Outlook: The downward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to policy orientation [29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.8 with a change of 0.02, and PX having various inter - period spreads with corresponding changes [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 206 with a change of 41, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82180 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 340 with a change of 185 [33]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific content is not fully presented, it is expected to involve detailed monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc. [34][46][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].