供需格局失衡、价格盈利承压，行业已下行近2年时间 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，供需格局失衡、价格盈利承压，光伏行业已下行近2年时 间。在当前行业承压背景下推行"反内卷"政策，各环节企业共识性更强，行业亟需破局。2025年12月硅 料收储平台已正式成立，期待2026光伏拐点之年。国家/协会已出台多项政策措施发力，期待进展提 速。各大龙头公司目标2025/2026年业绩扭亏为盈，彰显对行业发展信心。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 1)硅料收储平台成立：2025年12月"北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司"正式成立。行业有望进入"市场化 运作+行业协同调控"新阶段。 2)期待行业整合加速：硅料产能集中度最高、最易于管控，且硅料成本占比最小，对下游价格接受度影 响小，并且卡位关键、投资/开停成本高。该行测算：硅料每上涨1万元/吨，对应组件成本增加2分/W， 如下游电站非技术成本优化、硅料具备涨价空间。期待未来硅料收储进展提速。 期待2026行业拐点向上，基金配置已处低位 1)国家/协会层面："反内卷"为国家意志，国家/协会已出台多项政策措施发力，期待进展提速。2)公司 层面：隆基、晶澳、弘元绿能相机发布股权激励/员工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of addressing "involution" competition and identified key sectors such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, and coal industries that have shown significant improvement, suggesting investment opportunities based on policy support and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Since July, all "anti-involution" themed industries have achieved positive returns, with lithium batteries and photovoltaics performing the best due to favorable policies and improved demand, particularly in domestic and international energy storage [1]. - The steel industry, while initially strong due to policy support, has seen a decline in performance as real estate investment and demand have decreased, leading to a significant drop in the past month [1]. - Sectors like express delivery and live pig farming have shown weaker performance, with limited gains since July and negative fluctuations recently [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Industrial product prices have not uniformly increased since July; instead, there has been a divergence, with photovoltaic materials, lithium carbonate, and thermal coal showing relative strength, while prices for pork and cement have fallen below July levels due to weak demand [2]. Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to be a long-term market focus, with investment opportunities identified based on three key factors: 1. Current policy support levels, with photovoltaic and coal industries receiving the most robust backing [2]. 2. Market structure, where industries with lower private capacity and higher concentration are better positioned for supply-side control [3]. 3. Demand side dynamics, particularly in the lithium battery sector benefiting from rising energy storage needs and seasonal demand increases for coal during winter [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" trend is anticipated to remain a central market theme, with optimistic expectations for sectors like lithium batteries, coal, and photovoltaics, which are supported by both policy and demand [3].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition to the U.S. measures against China, urging for corrections and dialogue based on mutual respect [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued a notice to implement instant settlement reforms for medical insurance funds by the end of 2025, aiming for 80% of local medical insurance fund settlements to be instant by the end of 2026 [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 236 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a special action to enhance computing power access networks, aiming for 70% coverage of millisecond latency in urban areas by 2027 [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft regulation focusing on food safety responsibilities in the takeaway industry, requiring transparency in food preparation processes [2] - China's foreign trade showed resilience in the first three quarters, with plans to enhance support for foreign trade enterprises through financial and policy measures [2] Group 3 - Guangdong's foreign trade in the first three quarters reached 7.02 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, accounting for 20.9% of the national total [3] - The "Linglong No. 1" modular small reactor completed its cold performance test, expected to generate 1 billion kWh annually, reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 880,000 tons [3] - There are rumors about the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform, but industry experts have indicated that these rumors are unfounded [3] Group 4 - Spot gold prices reached a historical high of $4,240 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 60% [4] - Several unprofitable companies have initiated their IPO processes, including He Yuan Bio and Xi'an Yicai, marking a significant trend in the market [4] - A record 13 companies in the A-share market have triggered mandatory delisting indicators due to major violations, with 8 already delisted [4] Group 5 - Apple is preparing to launch a new MacBook Pro with a touch screen and M6 series chip, expected to be released in late 2026 or early 2027, potentially at a higher price point [5] - Fuyao Glass announced a leadership change with the resignation of Chairman Cao Dewang, who will remain involved in the company [6] - TSMC reported Q3 revenue of 989.92 billion NTD, a 30.3% year-on-year increase, with net profit reaching a record high [6] Group 6 - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk's high compensation case is under judicial review, with efforts to restore a $56 billion compensation plan [7] - The U.S. government is facing a prolonged shutdown, now entering its 17th day, affecting economic data releases and overall economic stability [8] Group 7 - Guangdong's humanoid robot industry is gaining momentum due to capital investment and favorable policies, but challenges remain in core component autonomy and application development [9] - Nestlé plans to cut approximately 16,000 jobs globally over the next two years, aiming to save 1 billion Swiss francs annually by 2027 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe "involution" issues, leading to irrational price competition and widespread losses among companies due to supply-demand imbalances [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The root cause of "involution" is the supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by aggressive expansion from some companies and blind project approvals by local governments since 2020 [1][2]. - The global production capacity for photovoltaic materials is projected to reach 324.9 million tons for polysilicon, 1394.9 GW for silicon wafers, 1426.7 GW for battery cells, and 1388.9 GW for modules by 2024, while new installations are expected to be only 530 GW [1]. - The industry is experiencing a wave of losses, with some companies reporting losses since Q4 2023, leading to an industry-wide loss situation [2]. Group 2: Government and Industry Response - The "anti-involution" actions began in the second half of 2024, with government departments and industry associations organizing discussions to promote self-discipline, production cuts, and price controls [2][3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is emphasizing the need for standards to drive the exit of outdated production capacity, with new energy consumption standards being proposed for polysilicon and photovoltaic components [3][4]. Group 3: Standards and Quality Improvement - The implementation of new energy consumption standards is expected to significantly improve the supply-demand dynamics in the polysilicon market [4]. - The approach of using standards to guide the industry is seen as more effective than administrative interventions, promoting a healthier market environment [5]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Market Strategy - In a market characterized by widespread losses, companies must shift from low-price competition to value competition through technological innovation and the development of differentiated products [6]. - Companies like Longi Green Energy are focusing on technological breakthroughs and increasing R&D investments to transition from a manufacturing hub to an innovation hub [6][7]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards technology licensing and cross-licensing, which is expected to create a more orderly market competition [7]. - Companies are also adapting to international trade barriers by establishing overseas production and local partnerships, aiming for a win-win situation [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Companies like JinkoSolar are enhancing their product offerings to achieve sales premiums, with expectations that 40%-50% of existing capacity will upgrade to mainstream power levels of 640W or higher by the end of 2025 [7]. - Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar are focusing on differentiated competition through BC technology, with significant growth in their respective product shipments [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The "anti - involution" policy is compared with the supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017. Both aim to address supply - demand mismatches through capacity reduction, but there are differences in background, industries covered, policy measures, implementation cycles, and outcomes [14]. - The "anti - involution" policy is expected to have a longer implementation cycle and a more profound impact. It focuses on long - term mechanism building and is likely to achieve more sustainable and healthy results [50]. - Regarding the impact on the bond market, the "anti - involution" policy is unlikely to change the long - term bullish trend of the bond market. In the short term, there is adjustment pressure on bond interest rates due to a slight rebound in commodity prices, but a demand - driven bearish trend is unlikely. In the long run, if the policy can increase corporate profits and drive up factor prices, it may lead to an upward inflection point in bond interest rates [51][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Anti - involution" Policy Context Review - In 2024, the Central Political Bureau Meeting first proposed "preventing 'involution - style' vicious competition." On July 1, 2025, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission incorporated "anti - involution" into the national economic governance framework, accelerating policy implementation. Subsequently, various industries issued implementation opinions, such as the China Cement Association, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the photovoltaic industry, and 33 construction central enterprises [10][11]. 3.2 "Anti - involution" and Supply - side Reform Comprehensive Comparison 3.2.1 Background Motivation - Supply - side reform in 2015 was due to the transition from high - speed to medium - high - speed economic growth, with severe over - capacity in traditional industries like coal and steel, and diminishing marginal effects of demand - side stimulus [15]. - The "anti - involution" policy since 2022 is because PPI has been in the negative range again, and over - capacity is more concentrated in emerging industries such as photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and new - energy vehicles. "Involution" is a structural and institutional over - capacity, threatening the long - term health of industries [17][21]. 3.2.2 Key Industries - The "anti - involution" policy covers a wide range of industries, including traditional industries related to real - estate and infrastructure, emerging industries, and downstream consumer - related industries. The policy focuses on the "new three items" (new energy, semiconductors, high - end equipment) [24]. - The supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017 focused on upstream raw - material industries, mainly addressing over - capacity in traditional industries led by state - owned enterprises. In contrast, the "anti - involution" policy is more extensive, emphasizing emerging industries in the middle and lower reaches, with more private enterprises involved [28]. 3.2.3 Policy Measures - The supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017 used "three removals, one reduction, and one supplement" as the main policy tools, featuring administrative means, quantified targets for key industries, supplementary measures, and demand - expansion policies such as shantytown renovation monetization [34]. - The "anti - involution" policy currently mainly uses market - based means such as industry self - discipline, with milder administrative intervention and an emphasis on institutional building. Its ultimate goal is to build a new development pattern and promote high - quality development, and it is unlikely to be accompanied by large - scale demand - expansion policies [39][40]. 3.2.4 Policy Implementation Cycle and Outcomes - The supply - side reform had a short implementation cycle of about 2 years, with significant and rapid results. It led to a substantial increase in capacity utilization, commodity prices, and industrial profits, and had a "first positive, then negative" impact on interest - rate bonds [42][43]. - The "anti - involution" policy may have a longer implementation cycle. It focuses on long - term mechanism building and is expected to achieve more sustainable and healthy results through market - based and legal means [50]. 3.3 "Anti - involution" Impact on the Bond Market Outlook - The impact of the "anti - involution" policy on interest - rate bonds is mainly transmitted through factors such as expectations, commodity prices, monetary policy, and the demand side. Currently, the demand side is weak, and monetary policy remains loose [51]. - It is predicted that the year - on - year PPI will gradually recover to around - 1.5% within the year but will not turn positive immediately. In the short term, there is adjustment pressure on bond interest rates due to a slight rebound in commodity prices, but a trend - driven bear market is unlikely. In the long run, if the policy can increase corporate profits and drive up factor prices, it may lead to an upward inflection point in bond interest rates [63].

Market Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector increased by 1.94% this week, with wind power rising by 4.05%, industrial automation by 3.53%, power generation equipment by 3.5%, new energy vehicle index by 3.22%, lithium battery index by 2.72%, nuclear power by 2.18%, and photovoltaic by 1.26% [1][3]. New Energy Vehicles - In July, new energy vehicle sales faced slight pressure due to subsidy fund disbursement, but sales are expected to stabilize and recover gradually from August. By 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales are projected to maintain high growth, driving demand for batteries and materials [2]. - The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 54.0% in July, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Lithium Battery and Materials - The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly, which is expected to restore profitability in related sectors. The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price reached 71,961 CNY per ton on August 8, an increase of 1,012 CNY per ton [4]. - Companies are advised to focus on battery and cathode material sectors due to the positive price trends [2]. Solid-State Battery Technology - Funeng Technology has sent samples of sulfide solid-state batteries to leading robotics companies, indicating a clear trend towards industrialization. Future attention should be on the verification progress of solid-state battery-related materials and equipment [2]. Photovoltaic Sector - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to regulate "involution" competition and promote product quality, guiding companies to exit outdated production capacity. The industry chain prices remained stable this week, with all segments showing a willingness to maintain prices [2]. - The photovoltaic sector's catalyst lies in the actual production capacity release time and scale, with a focus on the silicon material segment and new technology directions [2]. Hydrogen Energy - Continuous policy support is driving the industrialization of hydrogen energy, with pilot projects being launched in the energy sector. Companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production, as well as those benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure construction, are recommended for attention [2]. Company Highlights - Aiko Solar reported a net profit of -238 million CNY for the first half of 2025, while Huaming Equipment achieved a net profit of 368 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.17% [5]. - Hewei Electric reported a net profit of 242 million CNY for the first half of 2025, up 56.79% year-on-year [5]. - Xianhui Technology signed contracts worth approximately 702 million CNY with CATL and its subsidiaries [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Daqo New Energy (DQ.US) has seen a pre-market increase of over 3.5%, reaching $21.39, driven by positive signals regarding supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic polysilicon sector since mid-July [1] - According to the report from CICC, there have been frequent releases of positive signals regarding supply-side reforms in the polysilicon segment, including plans to raise energy consumption standards and monitoring of existing capacity for energy savings [1] - The revision of the "Price Law" provides a legal basis for "anti-involution," supporting the rise in silicon material prices, which is expected to reflect a supply-side turning point in the polysilicon segment first [1] Group 2 - CICC believes that the supply-demand contradiction in the silicon material segment is relatively deep, and the cost curve is steep, indicating that the photovoltaic industry's long-term profit center may return to a reasonable profit level [1] - Leading companies in the industry are expected to leverage their cost advantages to achieve improvements in unit profitability and market share [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in major stock indices across the Asia-Pacific region, with specific focus on the performance of the A-share and Hong Kong markets, while also noting significant movements in the photovoltaic and AI application sectors. Market Performance - On August 1, major Asia-Pacific stock indices mostly fell, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.66% to 40,799.6 points, the Korean Composite Index down 3.88% to 3,119.41 points, and the Australian S&P 200 down 0.92% to 8,662 points [1][2]. - The A-share market also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.37% to 3,559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.17% to 10,991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.24% to 2,322.63 points [3]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector experienced a surge, with notable stocks such as Jiejia Weichuang rising 20% to a limit-up, and Haiyou New Materials increasing approximately 13% [4][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice regarding energy-saving inspections for the polysilicon industry, which is expected to optimize supply and potentially phase out outdated production capacity [7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector may lead to a recovery in industry profit margins, benefiting leading companies with cost advantages [8]. AI Application Sector - The AI application sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Qidi Design hitting a limit-up of 20%, and Guomai Culture and Dingjie Zhizhi rising over 16% [9][10]. - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the importance of advancing AI commercialization and integration across various sectors, which is expected to enhance the growth of related companies [11]. Notable Stock Movements - In the Hong Kong market, InnoScience saw a dramatic increase, rising over 60% at one point and closing up about 30%, following its inclusion as a partner with NVIDIA for 800V DC power architecture [12][13]. - InnoScience's collaboration with NVIDIA is anticipated to significantly enhance power density in AI data centers, marking a pivotal development in the semiconductor industry [14].

作 者丨曹恩惠 编 辑丨骆一帆 6月9日，有媒体报道称，一位接近合盛硅业（603260.SH）的人士透露， 该公司正在谋求股 权转让，特变电工是此前的意向"接盘方"之一。 上述报道指出，截至5月底，双方对价格的谈判未能取得积极成果。"据了解，以董事长罗立 国为代表的合盛硅业实控人罗氏家族，出让全部股权的意向对价在百亿元级别。而特变电工 认为该价格偏离预期。" "对于任何捏造、散布此类不实信息、误导市场及投资者的行为，公司将采取一切必要法律手 段，严厉追究相关方的法律责任，坚决维护公司及全体股东的合法权益。"公司称，"如未来 发生与该事项相关的情形，本公司及相关信息披露义务人将严格按照法律法规要求及时履行 信息披露义务。" 作为工业硅和有机硅领域的双龙头企业，合盛硅业截至2024年底已经形成了工业硅产能122万 吨/年，有机硅单体产能173万吨/年。该公司也布局了光伏多晶硅等光伏制造环节，但受到近 两年光伏产业周期迎来低谷期的影响，其光伏板块的业务表现远不及传统硅基业务。 2024年，合盛硅业实现营业收入266.92亿元，同比增长0.41%；实现归属于母公司股东净利润 为17.40亿元，同比减少33.6%。而今 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports suggested that Hoshine Silicon Industry (合盛硅业) is seeking to transfer its equity, with TBEA being a potential buyer, but the company has denied these claims, labeling them as rumors [1][2] Group 1: Equity Transfer Rumors - A source close to Hoshine Silicon indicated that the company is looking for a share transfer, with TBEA as a potential buyer [1] - Negotiations regarding the price have not yielded positive results, with Hoshine's controlling shareholder, the Luo family, reportedly seeking a price in the range of billions, which TBEA finds excessive [1] - Hoshine's securities department confirmed that there has been no contact or negotiation regarding equity transfer with TBEA or its affiliates [1] Group 2: Company Performance - For 2024, Hoshine Silicon reported a revenue of 26.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.6% to 1.740 billion yuan [2] - The company's performance has been affected by a decline in core product prices, although it remains profitable [2] - As of June 9, Hoshine's stock closed at 47.58 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 56.2 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Industry Context - Hoshine Silicon is a leading player in the industrial silicon and organic silicon sectors, with an annual production capacity of 1.22 million tons for industrial silicon and 1.73 million tons for organic silicon by the end of 2024 [1] - The company has also ventured into the photovoltaic sector, specifically in multi-crystalline silicon, but has faced challenges due to a downturn in the photovoltaic industry over the past two years [1]