2025 年 12 月 12 日，白宫的一场高调签约仪式上，特朗普站在澳大利亚、日本、韩国等九国代表中 间，宣布启动 "Pax Silica 宣言" 联盟，高调宣称要 "彻底打破中国在稀土领域的垄断"。 这位向来擅长社交媒体造势的总统，将这份多边协议包装成 "重塑全球供应链的里程碑"，直言 "美国再 也不会为关键矿产被卡脖子而担忧"。 但现实很快给了这份雄心勃勃的计划一记响亮耳光 —— 就在联盟成立不到一个月，美国地质调查局的 最新报告显示，美国市场对中国氧化钇的依赖度仍高达 93%，所谓的 "联盟供应" 连缺口的零头都填补 不上。 特朗普政府的操作看似步步为营：2025 年 10 月先与澳大利亚敲定数十亿美元的稀土矿开发协议，11 月 联合日本共享分离技术，12 月拉上韩国负责加工环节，试图构建 "澳挖矿、日炼化、韩加工" 的闭环供 应链。 为了刺激本土产能，美国国防部还掏出 4 亿美元入股本土唯一稀土矿商 MP 材料公司，承诺以每公斤 110 美元的保底价格采购钕、镨等稀土，相当于市场价的两倍。 但这些动作终究是纸上谈兵，美国稀土产业链的短板早已根深蒂固 —— 本土虽有矿山，但精炼加工能 力近乎为零，2/ ...

表面上看，这个消息对日本来说似乎是个大好消息，意味着他们可能在稀土方面实现自给自足。然而，仔细分析后会发现，这个好消息背后也隐藏着巨大挑 战。虽然南鸟岛的稀土储量丰富，但开采的难度和成本都异常高昂。矿藏位于海底5500米深处，现有的设备根本无法到达这么深的地方。虽然日本在海洋工 程技术上有很高的水平，但面对这样的深海开采，也难以应对如此高的技术要求。 近期，日本政府宣布将启动南鸟岛的稀土开采计划，这个隐藏了多年的底牌终于浮出水面。稀土矿对于现代高科技产业的重要性不言而喻，它不仅是各类高 科技产品的关键原料，还在军事装备中占有重要地位。日本之所以迫不及待地开采南鸟岛的稀土矿，显然是对中国的稀土出口政策感到焦虑，担心因此受到 威胁。 从地理位置来看，南鸟岛位于日本和东南亚之间的太平洋，是日本已知的唯一可以开采稀土的地方。根据公开资料，这里的稀土矿早在2011年就被日本发 现，2013年确认了其存在，储量达到了1600万吨，主要是重稀土，足够全球使用约730年。 此外，日本面临的不仅仅是设备问题，还有技术难题。虽然日本在稀土提纯技术上取得了一定进展，位居世界前列，但与中国的5N级和6N级提纯技术相 比，日本的技术差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming talks between China and Europe in Brussels regarding rare earth issues are framed against a backdrop of exaggerated fears about a "rare earth supply crisis" and geopolitical tensions, questioning whether a real crisis exists between the two parties [1][3]. Group 1: China and Rare Earths - China is the world's largest producer and exporter of rare earths, which reflects the natural outcome of economic globalization and highlights the economic complementarity between China and Europe [1][2]. - China's export control policies are seen as a necessary step for the long-term stability of the rare earth supply chain, aligning with global green development trends [2][3]. - The Chinese government has established a "green channel" for European companies to facilitate the export process, with over 60% of EU companies expected to obtain export licenses through this channel by mid-2025 [2]. Group 2: European Concerns and Misconceptions - The anxiety expressed by some European officials regarding rare earths is fundamentally a cognitive issue, reflecting a misperception of dependency on China [3]. - The real challenge for Europe lies in overcoming geopolitical constraints and returning to a rational and pragmatic policy towards China, rather than succumbing to external pressures [3]. - The notion of using "economic weapons" against China may contradict European interests and raises questions about the true intentions behind such rhetoric [3]. Group 3: Future Cooperation - The focus should be on establishing a legally viable and reciprocal framework for cooperation on rare earths, which could stabilize the supply chain and send positive signals to the international community [3]. - Continuous emphasis on "reducing dependence on China" could overshadow practical cooperation and hinder Europe's ability to address its own competitiveness issues [3].

Group 1 - Rare earth elements are crucial for modern technology, impacting smartphones, electric vehicles, and military equipment [1][3] - China dominates the rare earth market, controlling 70% of global production and 90% of processing capacity, giving it significant leverage over high-tech industries [3][5] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths for defense and technology, facing supply chain disruptions due to China's export restrictions [5][9] Group 2 - In 2023, China reduced rare earth exports by nearly 40%, citing environmental and technological reasons, which is part of a broader national security strategy [5][11] - The U.S. is investing in recycling projects to reduce dependence on China, but current recovery rates are below 10%, making progress slow and costly [7][9] - Major U.S. companies like Tesla and Apple are experiencing significant supply chain pressures, with Tesla reporting a 30% increase in battery costs due to rare earth shortages [7][11] Group 3 - The cost of extracting rare earths from electronic waste is significantly higher than importing from China, leading to economic inefficiencies [9] - The U.S. is seeking alternative sources from allies like Australia and Vietnam, but their combined output is insufficient to meet U.S. demand [9][11] - The ongoing rare earth crisis highlights the importance of resource sovereignty and the need for a stable supply chain to maintain technological leadership [13]

Group 1 - The crisis in the Western world regarding rare earth resources is a result of long-term strategic misjudgments and arrogance [1] - Western countries underestimated China's legal framework in the rare earth sector, which rendered their usual sanctions ineffective [4] - The technological advancements in rare earth purification and recycling in China have created a significant gap, undermining Western plans for alternatives [6] Group 2 - The EU is struggling to secure rare earth quotas from China, highlighting its dependency on Chinese supplies, especially in the automotive sector [8] - Serbia's unique position as a candidate for EU membership and its friendly relations with China provide a pathway for rare earth supply, which is crucial for European companies facing production halts [10] - China's rare earth control policies are the result of over a decade of legal and strategic planning, marking a shift in the value perception of these resources [11] Group 3 - The ongoing U.S.-China competition in the rare earth sector is not just about resource acquisition but also involves technology, legal frameworks, and strategic patience [12] - The recent U.S.-China agreement on rare earth exports reflects a complex negotiation landscape, where concessions were made in other sectors in exchange for rare earth supply [13]

Rare Earth and Supply Chain - Suzuki had to halt production of its popular Swift model due to parts shortages caused by China's rare earth export restrictions [1] - Rivian's CEO pointed out the weakness of the United States in rare earth processing, emphasizing the importance of heavy rare earths for high power density motors and the challenges in establishing domestic processing capabilities [1] - Tesla announced their next-generation motors will completely eliminate the use of rare earth elements, with their Model 3 and Y powertrains already reducing heavy rare earth usage by 25% since 2017 [1] European Electric Vehicle Market - Tesla's sales in Germany decreased by 362% year-over-year in May 2025, with only 1210 vehicles sold, resulting in a market share of 281% in the electric vehicle market and 051% in the total passenger car market [1] - Tesla's sales in the UK decreased by 455% year-over-year in May 2025, with 1758 vehicles sold, while the overall UK electric vehicle market grew by 28% [1] - BYD's sales in Germany surged ninefold to 1857 vehicles, surpassing Tesla's 1210 vehicles, and doubled in the UK to 1388 vehicles [1] - Tesla's European sales challenges are attributed to supply issues related to Model Y transitions, brand image challenges related to Musk's political stances, and increased competition from Chinese and European brands [1] Amazon's Humanoid Robot Project - Amazon is developing AI software to drive humanoid robots for package delivery, aiming for autonomous navigation of complex delivery routes [1] - Amazon is building a "humanoid park" in San Francisco, California, to test robots in real-world scenarios, including obstacles like stairs and narrow passages [1] - Amazon plans to outsource robot hardware and focus on software development, potentially competing with Tesla's Optimus [1][2] - Amazon has already deployed over 750000 wheeled robots in its warehouses and introduced the Vulcan warehouse robot with tactile capabilities [2]

Group 1: Rare Earth Crisis - China has implemented export controls on rare earth materials, significantly impacting the U.S. due to its reliance on Chinese technology for refining rare earth metals [1][3] - The U.S. is attempting to recover rare earth elements from old hard drives, but this method yields limited quantities and does not alleviate supply pressures [3] - Plans for deep-sea mining for rare earths are hindered by the lack of refining technology in the U.S., making the situation a complex challenge for the country [3] Group 2: Oil Price War - OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a significant increase in oil production, raising daily output to 411,000 barrels, leading to a drop in international oil prices below $60 per barrel [5] - While the increase in oil production may ease inflationary pressures for the U.S., it poses a threat to the U.S. shale oil industry, which may struggle to compete with lower prices [5] - The high production costs associated with shale oil could lead to significant risks for the industry if oil prices remain low, potentially resulting in a contraction of the sector [5] Group 3: Political Implications - The current geopolitical and economic challenges have led to a shift in the U.S. administration's stance, with indications that President Trump may not seek a third term [7] - Trump's acknowledgment of potential successors suggests a change in strategy as the administration faces mounting pressures from both domestic and international fronts [7]