在传统估值体系失效的背景下，NCE平台表示，主权信用风险的激增正倒逼资本流向避险资产。数据显 示，2025 财年美国联邦赤字高达 1.8 万亿美元，债务占 GDP 比重攀升至 99.8%，且利息支出首度突破 1 万亿美元关口。这种不可持续的财政路径，促使全球央行在 2025 年延续了强劲的黄金储备多元化策 略。NCE平台认为，官方机构对黄金的持续增持，不仅为金价建立了稳固的支撑平台，更标志着全球储 备体系正在向"货币中性"和实物本位回归。 针对投资者普遍关注的矿业板块，NCE平台提醒需警惕传统逻辑下的"杠杆陷阱"。尽管 2025 年金价录 得 67% 的惊人涨幅，但矿业公司的盈利能力正受到成本上涨与监管收紧的双重挤压。市场数据表示， 2026 年主要金矿商的生产成本预计将增至 1，600 美元/盎司，且多个资源国强化了对矿权的行政控 制。NCE平台认为，在这种新环境下，矿业股不再是简单的"黄金杠杆"，投资策略必须从纸面资产偏好 转向对矿权安全性和生产效率的深度考量。 而在铜等战略金属领域，实物稀缺性已成为价格的主要推手。分析认为，2026 年精炼铜将面临超过 30 万吨的供给缺口。NCE平台表示，这种短缺是由 ...

2025年12月12日，华盛顿白宫东厅，特朗普站在澳大利亚、日本、韩国等九国代表中间，正式宣布启动"Pax Silica 宣言"联盟。 他声称这个多边机制将终结中国在全球稀土供应链中的主导地位，特别是针对中重稀土如氧化钇、钐、镝的垄断格局。 现场闪光灯频闪，媒体镜头对准这位以"美国优先"为信条的总统，他用惯常的绝对化语气强调："我们再也不会被卡脖子了。" 这份宣言被白宫塑造为"重塑全球关键矿产秩序的历史性一步"。 特朗普政府试图通过政治联盟，绕开市场自然形成的供应链依赖，强行构建一条"去中国化"的稀土通路。 但幻想撞上现实的速度比预期快得多。 不到一个月，美国地质调查局（USGS）发布最新数据：美国市场对中国产氧化钇的依赖度仍高达93%。 所谓联盟供应，连缺口的零头都填不上。 十天前，美国刚刚与澳大利亚签署数十亿美元的稀土矿开发协议；十一月，日本高市早苗政府同意共享稀土分离技术；十二月初，韩国总统李在明确认参与 下游加工环节。 这一数字像一记闷棍，击碎了白宫精心包装的战略幻觉。 三条线串起一个闭环幻想："澳挖矿、日炼化、韩加工"，最终由美国终端消费。 问题出在产业链的根本结构上。 美国本土确实拥有稀土矿山，比 ...

资源掌控，主权为本 稀土，其实就是一群特殊金属元素，总共十七种，在高科技和国防领域用得特别多，比如做手机芯片、 电动车电池、导弹制导系统啥的，没它不行。中国在全球稀土供应上占大头，产量超过七成。 其他国家也有稀土矿，美国加州有个芒廷帕斯矿，澳大利亚韦尔德山矿场，俄罗斯东西伯利亚那边也有 分布，印度巴西马来西亚零零散散有些，但开采起来费劲，矿石质量不高，成本老高了，提炼技术也不 成熟。结果，中国靠着完整的产业链和低成本，从挖矿到加工一条龙，成了全球老大。 过去几年，中国出口稀土出口得欢，换来点外汇，但问题也一大堆。环境遭罪了，江西赣州那些矿区， 土壤污染严重，水源受影响，修复起来花钱如流水，每年十几亿扔进去。加上资源过度开采，国内产业 升级受阻，老是停在卖原料的低端阶段。 政府一看这不行，得管管。从2010年起就开始调控，开采总量控制，环保标准提上去。到了2023年，事 儿更严了，四月份对出口个人和组织加强审查，十月份商务部发61号和62号公告，对稀土物项和技术出 口管制加码，十二月干脆禁了提取分离技术出口。 这么做，主要为了可持续用资源，护环境，推动产业往高端爬。说到底，中国资源自己说了算，优先本 国需要，这 ...

12月16日，深圳法院一纸判决把一桩潜藏数月的"锑锭走私案"摆上了台面，96吨国家管控稀有金属锑锭 被成功截获，27人受到法律制裁。 巧的是，就在隔天，美国农业部突然发现他们一笔对华13万吨的白小麦出口订单被取消，中方这是在跟 特朗普算总账？ 走私案宣判，96吨稀金追回背后的国家底线 走私锑锭听起来没那么"高大上"，可实际上，锑早被列入中国"两用物项"出口管制清单，锑既能用在电 池、光伏材料等民用制造业，也有不小的军事潜力，从2024年8月起，中国对其出口就设下了更严格的 门槛。 而这起案件的主角王某等人，从今年2月开始就暗地里动手了，他们绕开申报程序、伪装货物、虚报出 口，整整走私了166吨锑锭，深圳海关查获96吨，算是"追回稀金"，这不是小打小闹，而是一条完整的 地下产业链。 法院判得也不轻，主犯12年有期徒刑，罚款上百万元，其他26人，也都按参与程度分了刑，这场判决背 后，不是一场普通的走私案，而是中国在稀有资源安全上的一道防线。 今天是锑，明天可能是镓、钨、稀土，这些金属的管控，不仅关系到国家安全，还有可能牵动全球供应 链的神经。 更值得注意的是，这次行动并不是"临时起义"，而是中国在梳理关键资源出口 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significance of rhenium, a rare metal crucial for high-tech industries, particularly aerospace, and its strategic importance for China in the global market [1][3][22]. Group 1: Rhenium's Characteristics and Discovery - Rhenium, discovered in 1925, is a rare metal with a melting point exceeding 3180°C and a boiling point of 5596°C, making it stable at high temperatures [3][5]. - Global rhenium reserves are estimated to be less than 3000 tons, with China's reserves exceeding 8% of the total global supply [5][7]. Group 2: China's Rhenium Resources - The discovery of large rhenium deposits in Shaanxi province in 2017 positioned China as a potential leading supplier of rhenium, reducing its previous reliance on imports [5][7]. - This shift allows China to not only meet domestic demand but also to engage in deep processing and export of rhenium, enhancing its technological self-sufficiency [7][22]. Group 3: International Interest and Strategic Decisions - Major countries like the US, Germany, and Japan have shown keen interest in China's rhenium resources, proposing technology exchange agreements [9][11]. - China has rejected these proposals, emphasizing the importance of resource sovereignty and the risks of technological dependency on foreign powers [13][14][16]. Group 4: Domestic Innovation and Future Prospects - The refusal to exchange technology has spurred domestic innovation, leading to significant advancements in rhenium processing technologies [18][20]. - Chinese companies are developing their own single-crystal turbine blades, which enhance engine performance and support the rapid growth of the aerospace sector [20][22]. Group 5: Strategic Importance of Rhenium - Rhenium's applications extend beyond aerospace to nuclear energy, electronics, and high-end manufacturing, making it a strategic resource in global technological competition [22][24]. - Control over rhenium resources is seen as a key to enhancing China's future technological capabilities and global standing [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian government, under President Putin's directive, is prioritizing the development of a long-term roadmap for rare earth mining and production to achieve self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on the US and China [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Objectives - The core goal of the plan is to establish a fully autonomous rare earth industry chain, reflecting Russia's increasing anxiety over strategic resource independence [1][3]. - Putin has emphasized that rare earths are a priority for enhancing economic competitiveness, indicating a heightened awareness of resource sovereignty [3][4]. - The plan aims to create a complete industry chain from mining to high-tech product manufacturing, showcasing Russia's ambition to reduce reliance on resource exports [6][11]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks - Russia faces significant challenges in developing an independent rare earth industry, including a technological gap, as China leads in rare earth extraction technology [8][10]. - Financial constraints are severe, with Western sanctions limiting funding options and high development costs for mining in Siberia and the Far East [10]. - The time window for establishing production capacity is narrowing, with global competition intensifying, potentially leading to a situation where Russia has resources but lacks market access [10][11]. Group 3: Potential Opportunities - If successful, the initiative could provide Russia with economic resilience against Western sanctions, leverage in negotiations with the US and Europe, and stimulate economic development in the Far East [11]. - There is a possibility for limited cooperation with China, despite the emphasis on self-sufficiency, indicating a nuanced approach to international collaboration [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by China to strengthen rare earth export controls has caused significant concern in the U.S., revealing America's vulnerability in the global supply chain for these critical materials [1][3][10] Group 1: U.S. Response and Concerns - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has publicly criticized China, claiming it is using rare earths as a weapon against the world, indicating a sense of panic within the U.S. [1][3] - The U.S. has been attempting to launch its own rare earth projects, but it will take five to ten years to establish a complete supply chain, highlighting the urgency of the situation [1][3] - The U.S. has historically engaged in trade wars and technology restrictions against China, which has backfired and accelerated China's advancements in key sectors [3][10] Group 2: China's Position and Policy Changes - China's new policy requires licenses for products containing over 0.1% of Chinese rare earth technology, reflecting a shift towards regulatory compliance rather than retaliation [5][8] - The policy is seen as a corrective measure to address long-standing imbalances in resource flow and the weaponization of technology by the U.S. [5][8] - China has implemented measures to ensure continued supply, including green channels and exemptions for civilian use, demonstrating restraint in its approach [6][8] Group 3: Global Implications and Future Outlook - The situation underscores a shift in global dynamics, where the era of unilateral dependence on the U.S. is ending, and countries are establishing their own regulatory frameworks [11][13] - The control of rare earths is crucial for future manufacturing capabilities, and countries like the EU and Japan are closely observing the developments [10][11] - The narrative that the U.S. is the sole arbiter of global trade rules is being challenged, as both the U.S. and China navigate their respective policies [11][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. attempts to pressure China through legislation have backfired, as China has restricted rare earth processing technology exports, effectively limiting U.S. access to essential materials for industries like electric vehicles and missiles [1][3] - The market reaction has been significant, with rare earth prices on the London exchange experiencing the largest increase since 2012, prompting companies like Shin-Etsu Chemical to announce a 25% price hike for Q4, citing uncertainties in Chinese export licenses [3] - The U.S. has allocated a budget of $1.97 billion aimed at achieving "zero China" for heavy rare earths by April 2026, but this ambition is seen as unrealistic given the complexities of rare earth mining and processing, which require decades of accumulated technology and environmental systems [3] Group 2 - The article highlights that while the U.S. imposes high tariffs, it cannot produce rare earths domestically due to the shutdown of local processing facilities, leading to inflationary pressures being passed onto American consumers [3] - The narrative suggests that China has effectively redefined the rules of engagement in this resource sovereignty conflict without resorting to overt sanctions, using strategic documents, pricing, and communication to maintain control over the global supply chain [3]

Core Viewpoint - China's new rare earth export regulations, which require strict approvals, have raised concerns in the U.S., highlighting the strategic importance of rare earths in national security and technology [1][5][12] Group 1: China's Position - China has dominated the global rare earth supply chain for the past 30 years, managing everything from mining to processing, which has made it a leader in this industry [3][5] - The new regulations aim to manage resources more effectively, ensuring that exports are controlled based on the buyer and intended use, rather than being sold indiscriminately [5][12] - This move signals a shift in how resource-rich countries view their assets, emphasizing that resources are strategic rather than just commodities [16][21] Group 2: U.S. Response - The U.S. military and defense contractors are particularly alarmed by the new regulations, as rare earths are critical for advanced military technology and weaponry [5][10] - Despite attempts to develop domestic sources and partnerships with allies, the U.S. has struggled to establish a complete supply chain for rare earths, particularly in processing and refining [8][19] - The U.S. has historically relied on sanctions and trade wars, but the current situation reveals vulnerabilities in its industrial base, particularly in securing essential materials [10][21] Group 3: Global Implications - The rare earth conflict is not merely a trade dispute but represents a broader reconfiguration of global supply chains and industrial power dynamics [14][16] - Countries rich in resources are beginning to realize that controlling processing and technology grants them greater influence and respect in international relations [16][21] - The ongoing situation illustrates that the ability to manage and control critical resources will be a key factor in future geopolitical stability and power [21]

Group 1 - Rare earth elements are crucial for modern technology, impacting smartphones, electric vehicles, and military equipment [1][3] - China dominates the rare earth market, controlling 70% of global production and 90% of processing capacity, giving it significant leverage over high-tech industries [3][5] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on Chinese rare earths for defense and technology, facing supply chain disruptions due to China's export restrictions [5][9] Group 2 - In 2023, China reduced rare earth exports by nearly 40%, citing environmental and technological reasons, which is part of a broader national security strategy [5][11] - The U.S. is investing in recycling projects to reduce dependence on China, but current recovery rates are below 10%, making progress slow and costly [7][9] - Major U.S. companies like Tesla and Apple are experiencing significant supply chain pressures, with Tesla reporting a 30% increase in battery costs due to rare earth shortages [7][11] Group 3 - The cost of extracting rare earths from electronic waste is significantly higher than importing from China, leading to economic inefficiencies [9] - The U.S. is seeking alternative sources from allies like Australia and Vietnam, but their combined output is insufficient to meet U.S. demand [9][11] - The ongoing rare earth crisis highlights the importance of resource sovereignty and the need for a stable supply chain to maintain technological leadership [13]