今年下半年，扩内需增量政策信号持续释放；"反内卷"将是重要政策议题；围绕稳住楼市股市，下半年 仍会有政策部署……近日，多部门召开经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作 重点。 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，上半年GDP(国内生产总值)增速达到5.3%。近日，多部门召开经济 形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作重点。专家表示，下半年政策主线仍将聚焦 扩内需、"反内卷"、稳楼市股市等方面。 全方位扩大内需 全方位扩大国内需求是今年重点任务之首，下半年扩内需增量政策信号持续释放。 7月16日召开的国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部 署，涉及扩大新兴服务业等领域投资、优化消费品以旧换新政策等。 "扩大内需""提振消费"成为各部门提及下一步施策重点时的高频词。近日，财政部在上半年财政收支情 况新闻发布会上提到，下一步将按照《提振消费专项行动方案》部署，加快出台提振消费增量政策举 措，引导地方提升消费环境，优化消费供给。国家发展改革委则多次强调，扩围提质实施"两新"政策， 加力实施"两重"建设。 消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要抓手。据了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of consumption promotion policies in the context of economic challenges, highlighting the need for structural adjustments and support for both goods and service consumption [2][3][6]. Group 1: Historical Review of Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies (e.g., rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, consumption vouchers) and indirect support policies (e.g., tax reductions on vehicle purchases) [2][9]. - The first round of rural subsidies (2009-2012) had significant effects, supported by central and local fiscal subsidies, with a total investment of 76.5 billion yuan leading to sales of 659.76 billion yuan [20][23]. - Local governments have primarily used consumption vouchers since 2020, targeting various sectors like tourism and dining to stimulate local economies [16][18]. Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side limitations, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels [4][39]. - The housing market's downturn has significantly impacted household balance sheets, with housing loans constituting 53.8% of total loans, leading to reduced consumer confidence [47][49]. - Long-term challenges include an aging population and a mismatch between traditional supply and new consumption demands, which may hinder consumption growth [52][53]. Group 3: Expectations for Consumption Promotion - Future policies should focus on enhancing service consumption while maintaining strong growth in goods consumption, with an emphasis on structural optimization [6][63]. - The government is expected to implement measures to increase residents' income and reduce their financial burdens, such as lowering mortgage rates and providing rental subsidies [6][75]. - Stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is crucial for restoring household net income and boosting consumer confidence, as housing constitutes a significant portion of household assets [7][86].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumption promotion policies in the context of economic growth pressures and external demand constraints, highlighting the need for effective measures to stimulate domestic consumption and improve residents' income and spending capacity [2][3][32]. Group 1: Historical Review of Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies (e.g., rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, consumption vouchers) and indirect support policies (e.g., tax exemptions) [2][11]. - The first round of rural subsidies (2009-2012) had significant effects, with a total of 765 billion yuan invested, leading to sales of 6,597.6 billion yuan, achieving a fiscal multiplier of 8.6 [24][27]. - Local governments primarily use consumption vouchers to stimulate various sectors, including tourism and dining, with funding sources from local finances and businesses [19][21]. Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side limitations, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels [4][40]. - Structural unemployment and damaged household balance sheets further limit consumption, with housing loans constituting 53.8% of total loans, making residents sensitive to housing price fluctuations [48][50]. - Long-term demographic changes, such as aging populations and mismatched supply and demand in services, pose additional challenges to consumption growth [5][53]. Group 3: Expectations for Consumption Promotion - Future consumption policies are expected to focus on increasing income and reducing expenses, with an emphasis on improving the social security system and developing the service sector [6][64]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption, with policies potentially expanding to include subsidies for sectors like dining, accommodation, and tourism [66][69]. - Improving income distribution and social security mechanisms is anticipated to play a significant role in boosting consumption in the medium to long term [74][76].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a more proactive macroeconomic policy as outlined in the Government Work Report, emphasizing the need for increased fiscal and monetary support to stimulate economic growth and consumer demand in the face of external uncertainties and domestic challenges [2][3]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The Government Work Report reflects the continuation of the macroeconomic policy approach established in the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, which aims to enhance economic recovery and consumer confidence [2]. - The report highlights the need for counter-cyclical adjustments due to rising external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, particularly in consumption [2][3]. Fiscal Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy is introduced, with the deficit rate increased to around 4%, amounting to a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1 trillion yuan from the previous year [5][9]. - The total new government debt scale is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is adjusted from "prudent" to "moderately loose," signaling a clear macroeconomic policy direction to the public [5]. - The issuance of special bonds is planned, including 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, which is an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at investment construction and land acquisition [8][9]. Policy Implementation - Policies are to be implemented as early as possible to maximize their effectiveness, with a focus on addressing prominent issues and coordinating resources [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a cohesive macroeconomic policy approach, integrating various departments and focusing on key problems to achieve a synergistic effect [6].