Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising inflation and a recovering economy [4][7]. Monetary Policy - The RBA's monetary policy committee unanimously agreed to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, citing a rebound in private demand and a tight labor market as reasons for this decision [4]. - Recent data indicates stronger economic growth and persistent inflation, suggesting that the economy's potential capacity is more limited than previously expected [4]. - The RBA acknowledges the complexity of the financial environment and maintains a neutral policy stance [4]. Economic Forecasts - Core inflation is expected to remain above the target range of 2% to 3% until mid-2026, with the labor market projected to remain stable [5]. - The unemployment rate is forecasted to stabilize around 4.4% by the end of 2027, with employment growth slowing to 1.1% by mid-2026 [5]. - GDP growth is anticipated to be 2.0% by December 2025 and 1.9% by December 2026, with a return to 2.0% by the end of 2027 [5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Australian dollar experienced a short-term decline against the US dollar [6]. - The decision to maintain the cash rate aligns with market expectations, as economists had predicted no change [7]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation data shows a significant increase, with the producer price index rising by 1% and consumer inflation by 1.3% for the July to September period [8]. - The overall inflation rate for Australia surged to 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 2.1% in the previous quarter [8]. - The core inflation measure also increased from 2.7% to 3%, complicating the RBA's efforts to control inflation without causing significant job losses [8]. Real Estate Market - The Home Value Index in Australia rose by 1.1% in October, marking the strongest monthly increase since June 2023, with national and major city house price indices reaching historical highs [11]. - The recovery in the real estate market may complicate the RBA's efforts to manage inflationary pressures [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6%, aligning with market expectations, amid rising inflation and a recovering economy [2][6]. Monetary Policy Decision - The RBA's monetary policy committee unanimously agreed to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, citing a rebound in private demand and a tight labor market as reasons for this decision [3]. - Recent data indicates stronger economic growth and persistent inflation, suggesting that the economy's potential capacity is more limited than previously anticipated [3]. Economic Forecasts - Core inflation is expected to remain above the target range of 2% to 3% until mid-2026, with the labor market projected to remain stable [4]. - The RBA forecasts the overnight cash rate to remain at 3.6% until the end of 2025, decreasing to 3.4% by mid-2026, and further to 3.3% thereafter [3][4]. Employment and GDP Projections - The unemployment rate is anticipated to stabilize around 4.4% by the end of 2027, with employment growth slowing to 1.1% by mid-2026 [4]. - Projected annual GDP growth rates are 2.0% for December 2025, 1.9% for December 2026, and 2.0% for December 2027 [4]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation data shows a significant increase, with the producer price index rising by 1% and consumer inflation by 1.3% in the third quarter, both exceeding expectations [7]. - The overall inflation rate in Australia surged to 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 2.1% in the previous quarter [7]. Real Estate Market Insights - The Home Value Index in Australia rose by 1.1% in October, marking the strongest monthly increase since June 2023, with national and major city price indices reaching historical highs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% during its upcoming meeting, with no further rate cuts anticipated before next year due to concerning economic data [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent inflation data for Q3 has diminished market expectations for a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, with some analysts ruling out the possibility of further cuts [1] - Core inflation has returned to the upper limit of the target range of 2% to 3% [1] - National housing prices have increased at the fastest rate in over two years as of October [1] Group 2: Employment Situation - There has been a significant rise in the unemployment rate, complicating the economic outlook [1] - Despite the rising unemployment, the weakness in the job market is currently considered a secondary issue [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar, with a slight decline of 0.10% from the previous close of 0.6595 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is close to achieving its inflation target of 2%-3% and the economy is nearing full employment, according to Assistant Governor Hunt [1] - The RBA is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming meeting on September 29-30, with economists predicting a rate cut in November and another early next year, bringing the terminal rate to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - If buying pressure returns, the AUD/USD may test the recent high of 0.6707, with a potential breakthrough pointing towards last year's high of 0.6942 [2] - Temporary support levels for the AUD/USD are identified at the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) of 0.6535 and the 100-day SMA of 0.6510; a drop below these levels could refocus attention on the August low of 0.6414 [2] - The relative strength index (RSI) is around 52, indicating weakened bullish momentum, while the average directional index (ADX) is around 20, suggesting a gradually strengthening overall trend [2]

Group 1 - The chief economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Conway, indicates that tariffs are expected to lead to weaker export demand [1] - CPI data aligns with the expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [1] - Inflation is projected to reach around 2% by early 2026, with an expected inflation rate of approximately 3% by mid-2025 [1] Group 2 - There is potential for interest rate cuts if price pressures ease, with readiness to adjust the cash rate as necessary [2] - Tariffs are viewed as a negative shock to the New Zealand economy [2] - U.S. tariffs are expected to lower export prices from New Zealand [2]

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, stated that it is uncertain what the final cash rate will be and does not endorse the current market pricing expectations for interest rates [1] Group 1 - The RBA is unable to determine the ultimate level of the cash rate [1] - The current market expectations for interest rates are not recognized by the RBA [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, expressed concerns that the market's interest rate path reflects worries about severe adverse consequences for the global economy. There is uncertainty regarding the initiation of a long-term continuous rate-cutting cycle and the ultimate level of cash rates, with a rejection of the current market pricing expectations for interest rates [1] Group 1 - The market's interest rate path indicates significant concerns about the global economy [1] - There is uncertainty about whether a long-term continuous rate-cutting mode will be initiated [1] - The final level of cash rates remains unclear, and the current market pricing expectations are not endorsed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) projects that the cash rate will be 4.0% by June 2025, and will decrease to 3.2% by June 2026 and June 2027 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Projections** - The RBA anticipates a cash rate of 4.0% in June 2025 [1] - The cash rate is expected to decline to 3.2% in both June 2026 and June 2027 [1]