周二（9月23日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.65附近，截止北京时间11:32分，澳元/美元 报价0.6589，下跌0.10%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6595。澳洲联储助理主席亨特表示，该国央行 已"非常接近"将通胀率恢复至2%-3%目标区间中值，同时经济正接近充分就业状态。 "我们正在监测情况，将保持观望，"亨特在悉尼的一场行业活动中表示，"委员会将据此制定政策。虽 然无法完全预知未来，但目前我们希望维持现状。"澳洲联储将于9月29-30日举行下次会议，多数经济 学家和交易员预计其将把现金利率维持在3.6%不变。经济学家普遍预测该行将在11月进行今年第四次 降息，并在明年初再次降息，使终端利率达到3.1%。 若买盘重新掌控局势，澳元兑美元可能回测2025年高点0.6707（9月17日创下）。若能明确突破该水 平，将进一步指向去年高点0.6942（9月30日），该位置仅略低于0.7000整数关口。下行方向，临时支撑 位分别为55日简单移动平均线（SMA，0.6535）与100日简单移动平均线（SMA，0.6510）。若跌破这 一支撑区域，8月低点0.6414（8月21日）可能重新成为市场焦 ...

Group 1 - The chief economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Conway, indicates that tariffs are expected to lead to weaker export demand [1] - CPI data aligns with the expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [1] - Inflation is projected to reach around 2% by early 2026, with an expected inflation rate of approximately 3% by mid-2025 [1] Group 2 - There is potential for interest rate cuts if price pressures ease, with readiness to adjust the cash rate as necessary [2] - Tariffs are viewed as a negative shock to the New Zealand economy [2] - U.S. tariffs are expected to lower export prices from New Zealand [2]

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, stated that it is uncertain what the final cash rate will be and does not endorse the current market pricing expectations for interest rates [1] Group 1 - The RBA is unable to determine the ultimate level of the cash rate [1] - The current market expectations for interest rates are not recognized by the RBA [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, expressed concerns that the market's interest rate path reflects worries about severe adverse consequences for the global economy. There is uncertainty regarding the initiation of a long-term continuous rate-cutting cycle and the ultimate level of cash rates, with a rejection of the current market pricing expectations for interest rates [1] Group 1 - The market's interest rate path indicates significant concerns about the global economy [1] - There is uncertainty about whether a long-term continuous rate-cutting mode will be initiated [1] - The final level of cash rates remains unclear, and the current market pricing expectations are not endorsed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) projects that the cash rate will be 4.0% by June 2025, and will decrease to 3.2% by June 2026 and June 2027 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Projections** - The RBA anticipates a cash rate of 4.0% in June 2025 [1] - The cash rate is expected to decline to 3.2% in both June 2026 and June 2027 [1]