Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, and contrasts the market's reaction to this news with previous instances of trade disputes, highlighting a more measured response this time around [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The market's reaction to the recent tariff announcement was less severe compared to earlier instances, with the Nasdaq index dropping 3.56% on October 10, which is smaller than the declines observed in April [2]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index and the Wind China Concept Technology Leaders Index fell by 6.10% and 6.59%, respectively, both of which were also less than the declines seen in April [2]. - The VIX fear index rose to 21.66 but remained significantly lower than the peak of 60.13 observed in April [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors now have more experience and memory regarding trade tensions, leading to a calmer market response; the probability of the 100% tariff being implemented is perceived to be only 23%, compared to less than 15% in April for a potential reduction in tariffs [3]. - The market's perception of the likelihood of President Trump backing down from the tariff threat has increased, as indicated by betting markets [3]. Group 3: Market Stability Expectations - There is a stronger expectation for market stability now compared to April, with ongoing emphasis from policymakers on maintaining a stable capital market [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission noted a decrease in annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, indicating improved market health [5]. - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in stock ETFs, with their share rising from 33.0% at the end of 2024 to 37.2% in the first half of 2025, contributing to market stability [5]. Group 4: Valuation and Sensitivity - The current market valuation differs from April, with 18% of stocks exceeding the 95% historical percentile, indicating a higher concentration of high-value stocks [6]. - Margin balances have been rising since June, reaching annual highs, which may increase sensitivity to negative shocks in the market [6][7]. - The S&P 500 index's forecasted price-to-earnings ratio is above the 96th percentile since the end of 1999, suggesting elevated valuation levels [6].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 新一轮关税，新一轮 TACO 10 月 11 日，美国总统表示，自 11 月 1 日起对中国额外征收 100%关税，并对"全部关键软件"实施出口 管制。关税威胁再起，海外市场"risk-off"。标普 500 跌 2.7%，创近六个月最大跌幅；国际铜价和油价跌幅超 过 4%。贸易摩擦风险再起，后续怎么看？ 一、新一轮关税的可能走向 我们预计 100%关税落地的概率不高，因为 4-5 月的经历已指向高关税之路行不通。今年 4 月，在美国加征 关税后，美国对中国商品的税率一度升至 145%（4 月 10 日提升至 125%，5 月 14 日下调到 30%，100%以上 的税率未能完整持续 1 个月），使得中美经贸一度短暂脱钩。事后来看，美国从中国进口在 5 月下降超 40%，并 且其很难找到商品供给的替代方，这也促成了 5 月 10-11 日的中美经贸谈判。此次美国再度威胁加征 100%关 税，如果落地，这一税率足以使得中美贸易再次中断。而 11 月正值美国圣诞节的备货季，面临如此高的关税， 部分商 ...