证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 震荡期的破局之路 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：A 股行情独树一帜 11 月 3-7 日，类权益行情震荡反弹。截至 2025 年 11 月 7 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 6386.56，较 10 月 31 日上涨 0.63%；中证 转债同期上涨 0.86%，偏债型转债估值有所拉伸。 在全球权益市场走弱的情况下，A 股却迎来反弹，这与结构风 险的改善相关。与全球市场受 AI 估值泡沫担忧、美元走强、 美国政府停摆等宏观因素的影响不同，A 股行情掣肘是市场内 部的结构风险。11 月 5 日，成交集中度（前 5%成交额占全市 成交额比例）降至 40%附近，明显低于 45%。在牛市环境下， 结构风险稍有改善，市场则明显反弹，形成亮眼行情。 ►策略：保持震荡思维，等待增量信号 今年 9 月初至 11 月初的走势，与 2014 年 12 月至 2015 年 2 月 的行情极为相似。两者均为大涨之后的震荡期，且行情节奏都 是调整-反弹的循环。而在这段震荡之 ...

Market Overview - In October, the equity market experienced three phases: "TACO - Defense - Offense" with a cumulative drop of 2.34% from October 14-20, driven by heightened defense strategies following tariff threats from Trump[1][9]. - By the end of October, positive news led to a market rebound, with AI and semiconductor sectors leading the gains[1][9]. Structural Risks - Despite a stable long-term trend, structural risks became prominent, characterized by concentrated trading directions and a high proportion of overvalued stocks, leading to decreased market value for money[1][22]. - As of late October, the concentration of trading volume among the top 5% of stocks reached 46%, indicating potential risks[22]. Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is expected to face valuation fluctuations as year-end approaches, with many absolute return institutions needing to realize profits by November and December[2][36]. - As of October 31, the valuation center for bonds priced at 80, 100, and 130 yuan was 52.17%, 33.15%, and 15.60%, respectively, showing slight increases from September[15]. Investment Strategy - The prevailing strategy suggests that while the bull market logic remains intact, structural risks may lead to volatility, making it essential to adjust allocations accordingly[3][62]. - Investors are advised to increase exposure to dividend stocks during market upswings and actively position in thematic investments during corrections[3][62]. Economic Indicators - The October PMI indicated a weak economic foundation, with a composite PMI of 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from September, marking the lowest since early 2023[3][65].