黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3067 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 持平，持仓减少 4.4 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，唐山普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中 | | | | 天螺纹价格持平于 3140 元/吨，全国建材成交量 4.4 万吨。据钢银数据，节后全国建材库存增加 50.03%至 | | | | 572.97 万吨，热卷库存增加 40.9%至 315.35 万吨。目前钢材市场供需基本面仍偏弱，部分地区库存消化压 | | | | 力较大。不过春节前钢价的下跌在很大程度上已经计价高库存下的现货抛压利空，目前贸易商冬储资源多 | | | | 数亏损，钢价估值已处于低位水平，国内外价差拉大也使得钢材出口仍维持高位。目前市场对于宏观政策 | | | | 仍有较强的宽松预期，对行业反内卷政策也多有期待，市场情绪较为稳定。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将窄幅整 | | | | 理 ...

黑色商品日报 | | 企业电价成本仍有不确定性，南方地区锰硅生产企业开工意愿仍相对偏弱。需求端，节前下游钢厂锰硅库 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 存可用天数创下 2024 年以来新高，短期补库动力有限。综合来看，成本端有支撑，但持续上行驱动有限， | | | | 短期仍以震荡格局对待，关注成本及黑色板块整体走势。 | | | | 硅铁：周三，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5486 元/吨，环比上涨 0.29%，主力合约持仓环比增加 7933 | | | | 至 22.42 万手。各地区 72 硅汇总价格 5150-5200 元/吨，内蒙古、宁夏地区较前一日下调 30 元/吨。昨日 | | | | 黑色板块整体走势偏强，硅铁期价重心小幅上移。消息面，"沪七条"发布，进一步调减住房限购政策， | | | 硅铁 | 提振市场情绪。成本端，陕西地区兰炭小料价格环比下调 50 元/吨至 705 元/吨，成本支撑稍弱。供需层 | 震荡 | | | 面来看，目前市场观望情绪仍然较浓，以询盘为主。节前最后一周数据来看，硅铁周产量位于近年来同期 | | | | 低位，钢厂硅铁库存可用天数偏高，因此节 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3054 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅为 0.07%，持仓减少 0.19 万手。现货市场已处于有价无市局面，报价几无变化，唐山 | | | | 地区迁安普方坯价格持平于 2900 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3160 元/吨。据中汽协统计，2026 | | | | 年 1 月我国汽车产销分别完成 245 万辆和 234.6 万辆，环比去年 12 月分别下降 25.7%和 28.3%，同比产量 | | | | 增长 0.01%，销量下降 3.2%。其中，新能源汽车产销分别完成 104.1 万辆和 94.5 万辆，同比分别增长 2.5% | | | | 和 0.1%，占新车总销量比重达 40.3%。受新能源汽车购置税政策切换、多地购车补贴年度交替，以及部分 | | | | 消费需求在 2025 年提前释放等因素影响，1 月车市环 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils is accelerating, and there are concerns about post - holiday inventory digestion. The support from raw materials for steel prices is weakening [1]. - The iron ore market will show an oscillating trend. The supply is affected by the hurricane in Australia, and the demand side has an increase in iron - water production. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills is increasing [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is tightening as private coal mines go on holiday, and the demand from steel mills is weak. The coke market has a general demand and inventory pressure is emerging [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are likely to oscillate. The manganese - silicon has a slight decline in production and demand, and an increase in inventory. The silicon - iron has limited production fluctuations during the Spring Festival, and the cost and inventory situations vary [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3064 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (0.42%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 90,200 lots in positions. The inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils increased by 13.17% and 6.16% respectively. The market is worried about post - holiday inventory digestion, and raw material support for steel prices is weakening [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 761.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%). Australian shipments decreased significantly due to the hurricane, and the iron - water production increased. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 156,420 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1147 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.75%), with a decrease of 6791 lots in positions. Private coal mines are on holiday, supply is tightening, and demand from steel mills is weak [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1703.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.29%), with a decrease of 121 lots in positions. The supply of coke is normal, but the demand is general, and inventory pressure is emerging [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The main contract of manganese - silicon closed at 5812 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous day, with an increase of 11,034 lots in positions. The production decreased by 0.73% week - on - week, demand decreased, and inventory increased [1]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The main contract of silicon - iron closed at 5594 yuan/ton, down 1.44% from the previous day, with an increase of 7845 lots in positions. The production is expected to be stable during the Spring Festival, the cost situation varies, and the inventory decreased by 1040 tons [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 46.0 (up 1.0), the 10 - 1 spread was - 35.0 (down 1.0); for hot - rolled coils, the 5 - 10 spread was - 19.0 (down 1.0), the 10 - 1 spread was - 24.0 (up 1.0); for iron ore, the 5 - 9 spread was 18.5 (up 0.5), the 9 - 1 spread was 11.0 (up 1.0); for coke, the 5 - 9 spread was - 70.5 (unchanged), the 9 - 1 spread was - 89.5 (up 1.5); for coking coal, the 5 - 9 spread was - 75.5 (up 3.5), the 9 - 1 spread was - 171.0 (up 2.0); for manganese - silicon, the 5 - 9 spread was - 42.0 (up 4.0), the 9 - 1 spread was - 66.0 (down 12.0); for silicon - iron, the 5 - 9 spread was - 72.0 (down 4.0), the 9 - 1 spread was - 84.0 (unchanged) [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 05 contract of rebar was 156.0 (up 13.0), the 10 contract was 110.0 (up 14.0); for hot - rolled coils, the 05 contract basis was 1.0 (up 2.0), the 10 contract was - 18.0 (up 1.0); for iron ore, the 05 contract basis was 47.8 (up 0.1), the 09 contract was 66.3 (up 0.6); for coke, the 05 contract basis was - 70.7 (down 5.0), the 09 contract was - 141.2 (down 5.0); for coking coal, the 05 contract basis was 91.0 (down 8.5), the 09 contract was 15.5 (down 5.0); for manganese - silicon, the 05 contract basis was - 162.0 (up 44.0), the 09 contract was - 204.0 (up 48.0); for silicon - iron, the 05 contract basis was - 204.0 (down 20.0), the 09 contract was - 276.0 (down 24.0) [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai rebar was 3220.0 (unchanged), Beijing was 3120.0 (unchanged), Guangzhou was 3420.0 (unchanged); Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3240.0 (down 10.0), Tianjin was 3190.0 (down 10.0), Guangzhou was 3280.0 (unchanged); PB powder was 763.0 (up 1.0), super - special powder was 650.0 (up 2.0); Rizhao quasi - first - class coke was 1470.0 (unchanged); Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal was 1430.0 (unchanged); Ningxia manganese - silicon was 5590.0 (down 20.0), Inner Mongolia was 5650.0 (unchanged), Guangxi was 5750.0 (down 30.0); Ningxia silicon - iron was 5270.0 (down 30.0), Inner Mongolia was 5320.0 (down 50.0), Qinghai was 5300.0 (unchanged) [3]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar disk profit was - 87.2 (down 17.2), the long - process profit was - 8.6 (down 3.6), the short - process profit was - 92.0 (up 0.6); the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 175.0 (up 1.0), the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.0 (down 0.02), the coke - iron ore ratio was 2.2 (unchanged), the coking coal - coke ratio was 1.5 (down 0.01), the double - silicon spread was 218.0 (up 12.0) [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2021 to 2026 [5][6][7][9][10][12]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [14][15][18][20]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [22][24][26][28][29][31][32][34]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report includes inter - variety contract spread trend charts such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [35][36][37][38]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report provides profit trend charts for the rebar main contract disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2021 to 2026 [40][41][42][43][44].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3110 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 11 元/吨，涨幅为 0.35%，持仓减少 0.69 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | 弱势整理 | | | 方坯价格上涨 10 元/吨至 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3170 元/吨，全国建材成交量 3.61 万 | | | | 吨。据媒体报道，印尼今年计划将煤炭产量削减近四分之一，至约 6 亿吨，以提振煤价，个别矿企的减产 | | | | 幅度在 40%至 70%之间。受此影响，煤炭相关资产出现明显上涨，对黑色系走势形成一定提振。随着春节 | | | | 临近，建筑工地多数已经停工，终端需求渐趋停滞，现货市场逐步进入休市状态。目前螺纹库存尽管高于 | | | | 去年同期水平，但整体看库存压力并不算大，钢厂冬储资源组织较为顺利，贸易商心态也较为平和。目前 | | | | 螺纹仍处于矛盾不足，驱 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 黑色商品日报 硅铁 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5620 元/吨，环比下跌 0.71%，主力合约持仓环比下降 8051 手至 10.21 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5300-5350 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。昨日黑色板块整体走势 偏弱，但幅度收窄，硅铁期价重心小幅下移。消息面，河北某大型钢厂 2 月 75B 硅铁采购定价 5760 元/ 吨，较询盘价上调，环比 1 月持平，采购量 2150 吨，环比下降 1163 吨。供需层面来看，硅铁产量处于近 年来同期低位，截至 1 月末硅铁周产量 9.85 万吨，周环比上涨 0.1%，同比下降 10.7%。需求端，节前钢招 逐渐接近尾声，市场成交或逐渐转淡。库存端，截至 1 月末，60 家硅铁样本企业库存为 6.79 万吨，环比 增加 680 吨，同比下降 8340 吨。综合来看，钢招定价提供指引，基本面整体驱动有限，预计短期硅铁价 格震荡运行为主，关注成本扰动及黑色板块整体走势。 震荡 二、日度数据监 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 黑色商品日报 | | 面上行驱动不足，预计节前锰硅期价仍震荡运行为主，关注钢招定价及黑色板块整体走势。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5624 元/吨，环比下跌 1.02%，主力合约持仓环比下降 1038 | | | | 手至 11.01 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5300-5350 元/吨，内蒙古地区较前一日上调 20 元/吨。昨日黑 | | | | 色板块整体走势偏弱，硅铁期价重心随之下移。消息面，河北某大型钢厂 2 月询盘价公布，5700 元/吨， | | | 硅铁 | 等待最终定价情况。供需层面来看，硅铁产量处于近年来同期低位，截至 1 月末硅铁周产量 9.85 万吨， | 震荡 | | | 周环比上涨 0.1%，同比下降 10.7%。需求端，节前钢招逐渐接近尾声，市场成交活跃度难以维持较长时间。 | | | | 库存端，铁样本企业库存环比增加。依据钢联数据，截至 1 月末，60 家硅铁样本企业库存为 6.79 万吨， | | | | 环比增加 680 吨，同比下降 83 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market (including rebar and hot-rolled coils) is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Rebar production has slightly increased, inventory accumulation has accelerated, and apparent demand has declined. However, the overall inventory pressure is not significant, and with the expectation of macro - policy easing, the market sentiment is boosted [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. The supply side shows a slight increase in global shipments, while the demand side sees a decrease in molten iron production and continuous inventory accumulation in ports and steel mills [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be volatile and slightly strong. For coking coal, supply is stable but may contract marginally, and demand has weakened. For coke, supply has decreased in some areas due to environmental policies, and demand from steel mills is mainly for on - demand procurement [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be volatile. The manganese silicon market is driven by cost expectations, with limited demand support and high inventory. The silicon iron market is pushed by sentiment, with weak cost support and a slight increase in inventory [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - Rebar: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 41,000 lots in positions. Spot prices rose, and national building materials trading volume was 72,900 tons. This week, national rebar production increased by 280 tons to 1.9983 million tons, social inventory increased by 232,800 tons to 3.264 million tons, factory inventory increased by 150 tons to 1.4913 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton (2%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease of 9,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments were stable with a slight decline, and global shipments slightly rebounded. There were 5 new blast furnace overhauls and 7 blast furnace复产, and molten iron production decreased by 120 tons to 2.2798 million tons. Port and steel mill inventories continued to accumulate [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (2.69%), with a decrease of 21,423 lots in positions. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan to 1630 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased by 7 yuan. Supply is stable but may contract marginally, and demand has weakened [1]. Coke - The coke 2605 contract closed at 1723 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton (2.32%), with a decrease of 1708 lots in positions. The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port increased by 20 yuan to 1470 yuan/ton. Some coke enterprises reduced production due to environmental policies, and steel mills' demand is mainly for on - demand procurement [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5926 yuan/ton, up 2%. The main contract positions decreased by 12,587 lots to 362,400 lots. The market price in some areas increased by 50 yuan/ton. Cost is the main driver of the market, with limited demand support and high inventory [1][3]. Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5736 yuan/ton, up 2.17%. The main contract positions decreased by 33,983 lots to 138,700 lots. The price in some areas increased. Production decreased slightly, demand is mainly for on - demand procurement before the festival, cost support is weak, and inventory increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron, as well as profit data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 - 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026 [16][17][19][21]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026 [24][25][26][31][32][34][36]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It presents historical spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2021 - 2026, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [37][39][40]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report shows the historical profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2021 - 2026 [42][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all expected to fluctuate in the short - term [1][3]. - For steel, although construction demand is weakening and inventory is accumulating, macro - policy easing expectations, high steel exports, and low inventory pressure on steel mills keep the market stable, so the steel price will fluctuate narrowly [1]. - For iron ore, with the increase in Australian shipments, stable - to - decreasing Brazilian shipments, and the increase in iron - water production and port and mill inventories, the price will show an oscillating trend under the influence of multiple factors [1]. - For coking coal, with private coal mines entering the holiday season, decreased market enthusiasm, and cautious purchasing by downstream coking enterprises, the price will oscillate [1]. - For coke, with high raw - material costs, weakening demand from the steel industry, and possible decline in iron - water production, the price will also oscillate [1]. - For manganese silicon, with small increases in production, support from demand for February tenders, stable costs, and high inventory, it will maintain an oscillating pattern before the holiday [1]. - For ferrosilicon, with a slight decline in production, approaching the end of pre - holiday stockpiling, weakening cost support, and a small increase in inventory, it will mainly oscillate [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 31,423 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 11,000 in positions. Spot prices were basically stable, and the trading volume remained low. National building material inventory increased by 5.2% to 316.08 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.87% to 2.052 billion tons [1]. Iron Ore - The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 fell to 784.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (1.3%) from the previous trading day, with 260,000 in trading volume and a decrease of 1,000 in positions. Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and global shipments rebounded slightly. Iron - water production increased by 0.09 million tons to 2.281 billion tons, and port and mill inventories continued to accumulate [1]. Coking Coal - The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1,159.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.22%), with a decrease of 8,590 in positions. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port also changed. With private coal mines entering the holiday season and cautious purchasing by downstream coking enterprises, the price will oscillate [1]. Coke - The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1,719 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.17%), with a decrease of 1,308 in positions. The spot price at the port decreased. With high raw - material costs and weakening demand from the steel industry, the price will oscillate [1]. Manganese Silicon - The price of the manganese silicon futures main contract was 5,828 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 11,028 in positions to 359,600. The market price in some areas increased slightly. Production increased slightly last week, demand for February tenders provided some support, costs were stable, and inventory remained high [1]. Ferrosilicon - The price of the ferrosilicon futures main contract was 5,628 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 19,307 in positions to 196,600. The market price was basically stable. Production decreased slightly last week, pre - holiday stockpiling was approaching the end, cost support weakened, and inventory increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various commodity ratios [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, as well as the profit charts of rebar [5][14][22][36][41]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional experience and qualifications [47][48].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3124 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 7 元/吨，涨幅为 0.22%，持仓减少 1.78 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 方坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交量 7.15 万吨。据我 | | | | 的钢铁数据，本周螺纹产量增加 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，社库增加 7.71 万吨至 303.12 万吨，厂库增加 | | | | 6.32 万吨至 148.98 万吨，螺纹表需回落 4.82 万吨至 185.52 万吨。螺纹产量明显回升，库存有所累积，表 | | | | 需回落，供需数据有所趋弱。目前螺纹整体处于供需双弱局面，库存压力不大，但驱动也不强。预计短期 | | | | 螺纹盘面价格仍以窄幅震荡运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | | 震荡 | | | 昨日 ...