黑色商品日报 | | 数据，上周锰硅周产量约 19.69 万吨，周环比下降 1.3%，连续三周环比下降。需求端，上周螺纹产量止跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 小幅回升，钢厂锰硅需求量当周值止跌企稳，但绝对值仍然偏低，终端需求仍有待提升。库存端，63 家样 | | | | 本企业库存持续累积，63 家样本企业库存周环比增加 10500 吨至 36.3 万吨，同比增加超 15 万吨，持续刷 | | | | 新近年来新高。综合来看，基本面驱动有限，预计短期仍震荡运行为主，关注市场情绪变化及主产区产量 | | | | 变动。 | | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5456 元/吨，环比上涨 0.04%，主力合约持仓环比增加 2936 | | | | 手至 20.81 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5100-5200 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日下调 20 元/吨，青海地区 | | | | 较前一日下调 30 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势偏强，但焦煤走势偏弱，硅铁期价环比基本收平。基本面 | | | | 来看，当前生产成本居高不下，周环比持稳，按照即期利润测算，主产区仍处于亏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, suggesting that most of these commodities will show a narrow - range consolidation or oscillatory trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar market showed obvious gains. The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the cost has strong support for the low - valued rebar price. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures price increased. The supply from Australia and Brazil rebounded, and the demand and inventory both increased. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] - **Coking Coal**: The futures price went up. The supply side has tight inventory in some areas, and the demand side has a certain replenishment demand. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [1] - **Coke**: The futures price rose. After the fourth price increase, the profit of coke enterprises recovered, and the demand from steel mills increased. However, the terminal finished product market is weak, so it is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The cost support is strong, and the supply is decreasing while the demand is weak. It will maintain an oscillatory pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The production decreased, the cost is relatively firm, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be supported and oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production changes in the main production areas [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with their latest values and环比 changes [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) is presented, including their latest values and环比 changes [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14] - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][23] - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][32][33][34][37][38] - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts present the inter - variety contract spreads (such as main contract coil - rebar spread, main contract rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities [42][43][44][45] - **3.3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts show the rebar main contract disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term fluctuations in the steel plate are limited, and it may continue to trade in a narrow range. The iron ore price shows an oscillating trend. The coking coal and coke plates are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also in an oscillating pattern, with limited fundamental driving forces [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - The rebar futures market had a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 10,700 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume rebounded. This week, the national rebar production decreased by 85,400 tons to 2 million tons, social inventory decreased by 99,500 tons to 4.1575 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 64,200 tons to 1.6042 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 21,500 tons to 216,370 tons. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term plate may continue to trade in a narrow range [1]. Iron Ore - The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures showed an oscillating trend, closing at 772.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while that from other countries increased. The pig iron output increased by 26,600 tons to 2.3688 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 1.8871 million tons to 158.1284 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 660,000 tons. In the short term, the ore price will oscillate [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal plate declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.41%, with a decrease of 991 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal varieties decreased. The winter safety inspection of coal mines was upgraded, and the downstream coking enterprises slowed down the restocking rhythm. Although some steel mills accepted the fourth - round price increase of coke, the coking coal demand is expected to increase, and the short - term plate is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [1]. Coke - The coke plate declined. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1686 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.21%, with a decrease of 164 lots in positions. The spot price of port coke decreased. The coking enterprises' losses expanded, and the production capacity utilization rate and output decreased slightly. The steel mills' demand for coke declined, but the inventory in steel mills was still at a medium - low level. The short - term plate is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillating manner, with the main contract closing at 5756 yuan/ton, down 0.24% month - on - month, and the positions of the main contract increased by 8209 lots to 362,200 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5550 - 5720 yuan/ton. The production of manganese silicon decreased slightly, the number of mainstream steel tenders decreased, the cost was supported, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall situation is an oscillating pattern [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillating manner, with the main contract closing at 5506 yuan/ton, up 0.22% month - on - month, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 13,709 lots to 149,200 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5130 - 5200 yuan/ton. New production capacity was put into operation, the steel demand was weak, the non - steel demand was okay, the number of mainstream steel tenders decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit, spread data [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - delivery contract spreads, inter - variety contract spreads, and rebar profits of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, helping to visually analyze the price trends and relationships of these commodities [6][17][26][43][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [54][55].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views - Steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Iron ore shows an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term due to factors such as changes in supply, demand, and inventory [1] - Coking coal supply is tight, and the downstream has different procurement attitudes, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - Coke supply is affected by cost, and demand is influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - Manganese silicon has a complex fundamental situation with multiple factors intertwined, and the overall is in an oscillating pattern [1] - Ferrosilicon's current fundamental support is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with the black market in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Sections Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price decreased, the spot price dropped slightly, and the demand entered the off - season. The steel mills' losses expanded, and the cost support weakened, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Iron ore**: The futures price oscillated, the supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, the demand (iron - water output) declined, and the inventory increased, resulting in an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term [1] - **Coking coal**: The futures price fell, the supply was tight, the downstream procurement attitudes varied, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Coke**: The futures price declined, the supply was affected by cost, and the demand was influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production decreased slightly, the demand (steel recruitment) declined, the cost was stable with electricity price adjustment expected, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is in an oscillating pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production cost increased significantly, the supply was relatively stable, the demand (steel recruitment) decreased, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is expected to fluctuate with the black market [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 64.0 with a - 6.0 change [4] - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the 01 contract basis of rebar is 165.0 with a 19.0 change [4] - **Spot prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes of various varieties in different regions are given, like the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0 with no change [4] - **Profits and spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar's disk profit) and cross - variety spreads (such as the coil - rebar spread) is provided, for example, the rebar disk profit is - 119.5 with a 13.6 change [4] Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract prices**: Graphs show the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties over the years, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: Graphs display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different months, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spreads**: Graphs present the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties, like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [26][28][32] - **3.4 Cross - variety contract spreads**: Graphs show the cross - variety spreads of main contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar profits**: Graphs display the profits of rebar's main contracts, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin has rich experience in resource - product research and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is good at investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. Although the supply - demand data has improved with a slight increase in production, a decline in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand, the market has a generally pessimistic outlook on future demand, and there is still significant pressure on the supply - demand side. However, the current price valuation is not high, and the strong performance of coking coal and coke prices strengthens the cost support for steel [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. With a slight increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil and other countries on the supply side, and a decrease in molten iron production on the demand side, along with a continuous decline in steel mill profitability and pressure on steel inventories, the steel demand remains weak, and the coking coal and coke prices are strong [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Due to stricter safety inspections at coal mines, limited production release, and smooth shipments, the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although coking enterprises have limited production, they still have a strong rigid demand for high - quality coking coal [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the production cost of coke and deteriorated the profit margin of coking enterprises, leading to an expected increase in production restrictions. Meanwhile, steel mills' demand for coke has increased due to high - level blast furnace operation and a decline in inventory [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon price is expected to be firm and oscillate slightly stronger. After the end of an important meeting, market sentiment has been boosted, and the price center of manganese silicon has moved up slightly. Although the fundamentals have limited driving forces, with an increase in production and a decline in demand and an increase in inventory, the market sentiment has a positive impact [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Market sentiment has been boosted, and although the production has slightly decreased and the demand is still to be stimulated, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years, the fundamentals provide some support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Price Change Rate | Position Change | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel (Rebar) | 3071 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.1% | - 0.82 million hands | Production increased by 5.91 million tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 18.93 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 6.26 million tons | Narrow - range consolidation [1] | | Iron Ore | 777 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.4% | +0.3 million hands | Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, molten iron production decreased by 1.05 million tons, and port inventory increased by 147.62 million tons | Range - bound oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | 1258.5 yuan/ton | +49 yuan/ton | +4.05% | +86290 hands | Stricter safety inspections, limited production release, and a significant decrease in coal mine inventory | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Coke | 1768 yuan/ton | +58.5 yuan/ton | +3.42% | +1289 hands | Rising coking coal prices, increased production cost, and expected increase in production restrictions for coking enterprises; increased demand from steel mills | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Manganese Silicon | 5818 yuan/ton | +0.41% | - | - 4420 hands | Production stopped falling and rebounded, demand decreased, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [1][3] | | Silicon Iron | 5574 yuan/ton | +0.94% | - | - 5440 hands | Production decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, demand was limited, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread and Basis**: The data shows the latest values and week - on - week changes of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The data presents the latest values and week - on - week changes of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) for various varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][19][21][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the contract spreads of different periods (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][38][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Black Research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors. His futures trading qualification numbers are F3046854 and Z0016941 [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures. She has rich experience in the field of black commodities and has won many industry awards. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0306200 and Z0000082 [52]. - Liu Xi: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F03087689 and Z0019538 [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. He has experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level II exam, and is good at investment trading strategies and spot - futures analysis. His futures trading qualification number is F03132960 [53].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views - Steel: The steel billet exports have significantly increased, alleviating the supply pressure of rebar. Recently, steel mills' profits have been continuously shrinking, with more mills reducing production and undergoing maintenance. Meanwhile, downstream demand remains low, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand for rebar. It is expected that the rebar futures market will continue to operate in a weak consolidation pattern in the short term [1]. - Iron ore: The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil has slightly increased, and the demand for iron ore remains high, which provides strong support for prices. However, steel mills' profits have declined, and the demand for steel remains weak, causing the sentiment in the black commodity market to turn bearish. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to show a range-bound oscillation pattern [1]. - Coking coal: Some coal mines have reduced or halted production due to over - production inspections and safety checks, leading to a continuous tightening of the coking coal market supply, which strongly supports coking coal prices. Downstream coke enterprises are more resistant to high - priced resources and are cautious in their purchases. In the short term, the coking coal futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises in many regions have initiated a second price increase, but steel mills have not responded yet. Coke enterprises' production levels are relatively stable, and their inventories have decreased to a low level. The increase in coking coal prices has led to a decline in coke enterprises' profits. In the short term, the coke futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. - Manganese silicon: The prices of the black commodity sector have shown some divergence recently. The production of manganese silicon has stopped falling and rebounded, while the demand from downstream steel mills has continued to decline. The inventory of sample enterprises has gradually increased. In the short term, the manganese silicon market is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the black commodity sector [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon has slightly decreased recently, which has supported the ferrosilicon futures prices. However, the overall demand stimulation is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [1]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads: For different black commodities, the spreads between different contracts (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) have shown various changes, including increases and decreases [4]. - Basis: The basis of each black commodity's main contract has also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of different black commodities in various regions have different trends, including price increases, decreases, and stability [4]. - Profits and spreads: The profits of different steel - making processes (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and the spreads between different commodities (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) have also changed [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - Main contract prices: The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) over the years through charts, showing their price trends [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - Main contract basis: The basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different time periods is presented through charts, reflecting the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][19][21][22][23][24]. - Inter - period contract spreads: The spreads between different contracts of various black commodities (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc.) over different time periods are presented through charts, showing the price differences between different contracts [27][29][30][32][33][35][36][37][39][41]. - Inter - commodity contract spreads: The spreads between different black commodities (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) over the years are presented through charts, reflecting the price relationships between different commodities [42][43][44][45]. - Rebar profits: The report presents the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over the years through charts, showing the profit trends of rebar production [47][48][50][51]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and expertise in the black commodity field [53][54].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a slight rebound. However, considering the approaching end of the peak demand season and pessimistic market expectations for future demand, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation state [1]. - Iron Ore: With both supply and demand showing negative factors, such as decreased global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments, reduced iron - making output, and increased port inventory, the price of iron ore is expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: Affected by factors such as stable production at the supply end, rigid replenishment demand at the demand end, and high - level shock of iron - making output, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Coke: With the narrowing of coking enterprise profit margins and reduced supply, and high - level operation of blast furnaces at the demand end, the coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese silicon futures has shown a weakening trend. With the approaching of the steel procurement price determination and the weakening of cost support, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The price of ferrosilicon futures has stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by factors such as production reduction and weak downstream demand, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 18,200 lots in positions. The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume recovered. This week, the national rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons year - on - year [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 400,000 lots and an increase of 27,000 lots in positions. The market price of mainstream port spot varieties decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased, and the iron - making output decreased by 5,900 tons to 2.4095 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton or 3% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 21,901 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal varieties increased, and the downstream had rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton or 1.86% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 314 lots in positions. The spot price was stable. The profit margin of coking enterprises narrowed, and the supply decreased slightly [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of manganese silicon futures showed a weakening trend. The mainstream steel procurement in October decreased slightly, and the first inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last month. The cost support weakened slightly [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of ferrosilicon futures stopped falling and rebounded. An enterprise in Inner Mongolia reduced production, affecting the daily output by about 200 tons. The mainstream steel procurement quantity in October decreased by 195 tons [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 53.0, up 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 14.0, down 3.0 [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of rebar 01 contract was 141.0, down 15.0; the basis of iron ore 01 contract was 52.2, up 6.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3190.0, unchanged; the spot price of PB powder was 778.0, up 3.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar futures profit was - 106.5, up 4.7; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 170.0, down 8.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][29][30][31][34][35]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, coking coal and iron ore, coking coal and coke, and manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [51]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The current steel production remains high, inventory accumulates, and supply - demand pressure increases. With the weak data performance and the decline in new RMB loans in September, the short - term steel futures market is expected to continue to move weakly [1]. - Iron ore: Although the supply and demand of iron ore have declined, the demand is still at a high level, which provides strong support for prices. Under the influence of multiple factors, the short - term ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [1]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is basically stable, and the market sentiment is fair. The iron - making production is still at a high level, but the profitability of coking and steel enterprises is poor, so the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke: The coking enterprises' production is stable, and the downstream demand is good, but the steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the coke procurement is still cautious. Therefore, the short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The production of manganese silicon has slightly declined from the high level, and the demand is limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The cost of manganese ore has fluctuated. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon enterprises remains at a high level, the demand for steel is weak, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures continued to decline. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The national building materials production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated, and apparent demand increased slightly. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron ore**: The iron ore futures price fell. The port spot price decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments declined, and the iron - making production decreased slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped. The spot price of some coal types increased. The supply was stable, and the demand remained high, but the profitability of downstream enterprises was poor. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price declined. The port spot price increased. The coking enterprises' production was stable, and the downstream demand was good, but the steel mills' profits were shrinking. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price in some regions increased. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened in the afternoon. The spot price in some regions increased. The production remained high, the demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was high. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 56.0, a decrease of 3.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different trends. For example, the 01 - contract basis of rebar is 156.0, an increase of 7.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions have risen and fallen. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0, a decrease of 20.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different varieties have changed. For example, the rebar futures profit is - 111.2, a decrease of 11.7 compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the spread trends of inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [27][31][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][43][44] - **Rebar Profit**: The report provides the profit trends of rebar from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise in the black - commodity field [54][55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron Ore: Fluctuation [1] - Coking Coal: Fluctuation [1] - Coke: Fluctuation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on October 10, 2025. It comprehensively considers factors such as supply, demand, price changes, and inventory levels of each commodity, and provides corresponding short - term trend forecasts for them [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: After the holiday, the steel rebar futures market was volatile and slightly stronger. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. However, there was a significant inventory build - up during the holiday, and the inventory digestion pressure after the holiday was still large. Although the market had strong expectations for macro - policies and the price was at a low level, the short - term industry supply - demand situation still put pressure on prices, so it was expected to move in a narrow - range [1] - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose after the holiday. The supply side showed a decline in shipments, and the demand side had a slight decrease in molten iron production. With high demand supporting the price and multiple factors in a multi - empty situation, the ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. On the supply side, coal mine safety inspections might be tightened after an accident. On the demand side, coke enterprises slowed down their raw coal purchases after the profit recovery. It was expected that the coking coal futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the first round of price increases, the supply side was stable. On the demand side, steel mills' inventory decreased, and the finished product shipments were average, suppressing the replenishment demand. It was expected that the coke futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly. The cost support was relatively strong, but the supply was at a relatively high level, and the short - term fundamental upward driving force was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the change of market sentiment [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The cost support weakened, and the supply was at a relatively high level. The demand side was about to start a new round of steel tenders, and the price center of tenders was expected to move down slightly. It was expected to run weakly and fluctuate in the short term [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For various commodities such as steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, the report provided the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (e.g., 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months, etc.) [4] - **Basis**: It presented the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis of the main contracts of various commodities and the latest values and month - on - month changes of spot prices in different regions [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on the latest values and month - on - month changes of profit (such as steel rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and inter - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) was provided [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: It showed the closing price trends of the main contracts of steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through figures [6][7][10][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis trends of the main contracts of various commodities from 2022 - 2026 were presented through figures [17][19][23][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The trends of inter - period contract spreads of various commodities (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) were shown through figures [27][32][33][37][39] - **Inter - commodity Contract Spread**: The trends of inter - commodity spreads of various main contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 were presented through figures [43][45][47] - **Steel Rebar Profit**: The trends of disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the steel rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 were shown through figures [48][52] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduced the information of the black research team members of Everbright Futures, including their positions, work experience, honors, and relevant qualification numbers [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, shows signs of weak consolidation. Rebar inventories have decreased, and the implementation of new policy financial tools may support market sentiment. However, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain weak [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Although iron ore prices have declined, iron ore demand, as indicated by increasing iron - water production, is rising, while supply shows mixed trends [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are likely to experience wide - range fluctuations. The coking coal market is affected by pre - holiday production adjustments and downstream inventory replenishment, and the coke market is influenced by cost increases and demand changes [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be weakly volatile. Both markets face challenges such as high supply, limited demand, and increasing production costs [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, down 0.0.55% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable, and the national building materials inventory decreased by 5.1% week - on - week. The hot - rolled coil inventory also declined. The market is expected to be weakly consolidated [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased steadily, and other countries' shipments increased. Iron - water production rose, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 3.55%. Some coal mines have scheduled holiday maintenance, and downstream inventory replenishment is nearing completion. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1647 yuan/ton, down 2.69%. Some steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increases. Coke supply may decrease due to cost pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, closing at 5820 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. Supply remains relatively high, demand is limited, and production costs are increasing. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price weakened, closing at 5610 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Supply is high, demand is limited, and production costs are rising. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts, such as 1 - 5 months and 5 - 10 months for different commodities, showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 58.0, down 1.0 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the basis of the 01 rebar contract was 143.0, down 3.0 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3240.0, down 10.0 [3]. - **Profits and Price Ratios**: The report also monitored profits (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and price ratios (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presented the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The historical basis of the main contracts of various commodities was shown, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The historical spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) of various commodities were presented [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: The historical spreads of different inter - commodity contracts (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) were shown [41][42][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: The historical profits of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) from 2020 to 2025 were presented [46][47][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52].