黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：节后首个交易日，螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3096 元/吨，较上一 | 窄幅整理 | | | 交易收盘价格上涨 24 元/吨，涨幅为 0.78%，持仓增加 3.43 万手。现货价格小幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地 | | | | 区迁安普方坯价格上涨 10 元/吨至 2960 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3190 元/吨，全国 | | | | 建材成交量 11.99 万吨。据我的钢铁数据，节后全国螺纹产量环比回落 3.62 万吨至 203.4 万吨，同比减少 | | | | 32.86 万吨；社库环比增加 23.96 万吨至 467.3 万吨，同比增加 164.92 万吨；厂库环比回升 33.43 万吨至 | | | | 192.34 万吨，同比增加 53.87 万吨；螺纹表需回落 95.06 万吨至 146.01 吨，同比减少 102.49 万吨。节日期 | | | | 间螺纹累库量达到 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3097 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 下跌 17 元/吨，跌幅为 0.55%，持仓减少 4.99 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交小幅回落，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 2970 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.96 万吨。据 | | | | 钢银数据，本周全国建材库存环比下降 5.1%至 491.96 万吨，热卷库存下降 1.27%至 221.74 万吨。建材库 | | | | 存降幅扩大，热卷库存也由升转降，显示终端用户节前补库增加，供需矛盾阶段有所缓解。发改委会同有 | | | | 关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具规模共 5000 亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金，对市场情绪将有一定 | | | | 的利好支撑。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将弱势整理运行。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 ...

黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3167 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 3 元/吨，涨幅为 0.09%，持仓减少 1.18 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交小幅回升，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 3030 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.82 万吨。据 | | | | 我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 0.01 万吨至 206.46 万吨，同比增加 1 万吨；社库环比回落 13.32 | | | | 万吨至 471.89 万吨，同比增加 184.56 万吨；厂库环比回落 0.66 万吨至 164.41 万吨，同比增加 36.28 万吨； | | | | 螺纹表需增加 10.41 万吨至 220.44 吨，同比减少 35.02 万吨。螺纹产量基本持平，库存连续第二周下降， | | | | 表需回升，供需数据有所改善。目前螺纹供需仍有一定压力，但当前价格估值不高，后期反 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term price of rebar is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation as there is no obvious upward driving force, but the downward space is also limited [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show a volatile trend due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to follow the overall fluctuation of the black commodities in the short term, with limited fundamental driving forces [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Steel - The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.08 million lots in positions. The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased slightly. The national building materials production, social inventory, factory inventory, and apparent demand all changed, showing weak data [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract i2601 closed at 803.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and a reduction of 0.8 million lots in positions. The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the demand (hot metal production) increased, and the steel mill profitability declined [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1224.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7155 lots in positions. The spot price of some coking coal varieties changed. The supply side had normal production in most mines, and the demand was good. The iron - making enterprises purchased as needed, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1730 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton (0.73%), with an increase of 113 lots in positions. The spot price of port coke increased. The cost of coking enterprises increased, and the downstream replenishment demand was released as the holidays approached, but the overall replenishment was expected to be limited [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.44% month - on - month, and the positions decreased by 1401 lots to 333,800 lots. The market price in some regions changed. The steel procurement was ongoing, and the production was expected to increase. The cost was relatively stable [1]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5742 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month, and the positions increased by 621 lots to 188,000 lots. The market price in some regions changed. Some production enterprises resumed production, and the downstream steel mills' inventory days increased. The cost was supported to some extent [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, spot prices, profits, and cross - variety spreads of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [2]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis data of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon for different years and contracts [16][18][21][23]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread data of different contracts (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. 3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads - The report shows the spreads of cross - variety contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][44]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report presents the profit data of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to show narrow - range consolidation. Although steel billet exports have increased significantly, market expectations for peak - season demand are low, and there are concerns about post - National Day inventory accumulation. The large amount of warehouse receipts also affects market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has declined, but iron - water production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has continued to decline, resulting in a situation where long and short factors are intertwined [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Some coal mines are under maintenance, and downstream procurement has increased. However, the increase in coking coal prices has widened the losses of coking enterprises, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The domestic coke market is stable, but the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk. The demand for pre - National Day restocking by steel mills has increased, and the demand from downstream steel mills is relatively stable [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. The fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, limited demand, and weak cost support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, weak demand, and increased raw - material costs [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 20,300 lots in positions. Spot prices and trading volume decreased. From January to August 2025, domestic steel billet exports totaled 9.2362 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 293.24%, and 1.7642 million tons in August, a year - on - year increase of 236.03% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (0.7%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 290,000 lots and a reduction of 15,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased by 1.658 million tons to 19.188 million tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 393,000 tons to 8.54 million tons. Iron - water production increased by 4,700 tons to 2.4102 million tons, and the steel mill profit rate continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, with no price change and a reduction of 9,423 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Lvliang increased by 60 yuan to 1263 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market showed a strong - oscillating trend. Some coal mines were under maintenance, and downstream procurement increased [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 425 lots in positions. The spot price in ports decreased. Some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged dry - quenched coke, but the profit of coking enterprises continued to shrink [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: On Tuesday, the silicomanganese futures price showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract closing at 5882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% month - on - month, and a reduction of 4,631 lots in positions to 335,200 lots. The market price was 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton, basically unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream steel tender price was set at 6000 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to reach a new high in the future. Production was at a relatively high level, demand was limited, and cost support was weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the main contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% month - on - month, and a reduction of 12,607 lots in positions to 187,400 lots. The aggregated price was about 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production was at a relatively high level, demand from steel mills was weak, and the inventory of steel mills increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months), basis, and spot prices for various varieties including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) are also provided, along with their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various varieties [27][28][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [42][43][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts present the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][49][50][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - commodity research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market shows marginal improvement in supply - demand, with the steel industry's growth plan boosting sentiment. The short - term trend of the rebar futures market is expected to be narrow - range consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply - demand, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand and cost. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to follow the overall trend of the black commodities due to limited fundamental drivers [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price on September 23, 2025, showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.41%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 109,000 lots in positions. The spot price was stable with an increase, and the trading volume recovered. The national building materials inventory decreased by 1.63% to 518.39 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.74% to 224.59 million tons. The steel industry's growth plan boosted market sentiment, and it is expected that the short - term rebar futures will be in narrow - range consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend on September 23, 2025, closing at 808.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 410,000 lots and a decrease of 12,000 lots in positions. The supply side showed a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while the demand side saw an increase in molten iron production and a decline in steel mill profitability. With multiple factors at play, the ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [1]. - **Coking Coal**: On September 23, 2025, the coking coal futures price declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1217.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan/ton (1.18%), with a decrease of 7023 lots in positions. The supply side saw an increase in production at coal mines, and the demand side showed an increase in demand from coking enterprises. However, due to the general profit situation of coking and steel enterprises, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - **Coke**: On September 23, 2025, the coke futures price declined. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1718 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (1.18%), with a decrease of 489 lots in positions. The supply side faced rising costs of coking coal, and the demand side saw an increase in demand from some steel mills. But due to the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term coke futures are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 23, 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a weakening trend. The main contract was reported at 5870 yuan/ton, down 1.84% from the previous day, with an increase of 5304 lots in positions to 339,800 lots. The current weekly output of manganese silicon is still high, and the demand side has limited drivers. The cost and inventory sides have little change, so it is expected to follow the overall trend of black commodities [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On September 23, 2025, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a weakening trend. The main contract was reported at 5648 yuan/ton, down 2.01% from the previous day, with a decrease of 11,755 lots in positions to 200,000 lots. The production of ferrosilicon is at a relatively high level, and the demand side has weak drivers. Although the cost of raw materials has increased, the inventory is still high. Therefore, it is expected to follow the overall trend of black commodities [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spread trends between different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][31][32][33][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report presents the spread trends between different varieties such as main contract hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, etc [41][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: The report shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts such as disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. With the decline in rebar production, the inventory turned from rising to falling, and the apparent demand rebounded. However, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market's expectation of further policy easing weakened, affecting the rebar sentiment. It is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures market also had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply increased, while the demand was affected by factors such as the change in the number of blast furnace overhauls and production resumptions. The inventory situation was mixed. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market had a wide - range oscillation. The supply was tight, and the downstream coking enterprises had different procurement attitudes. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market had a wide - range oscillation. The raw material price rebounded, and the profit of coking enterprises shrank. The demand was supported by high hot - metal production, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures market showed an oscillatory trend. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was limited. The market sentiment was boosted by news, but the sustainability was not strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market also showed an oscillatory trend. The production was at a relatively high level, and the demand was not strong. The market sentiment was disturbed, and the fundamentals had limited driving force. It is expected to continue oscillating [3]. Group 3: Summary by Section Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (0.66%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The spot price dropped slightly, and the trading volume declined. The production, inventory, and apparent demand data had certain changes. The Fed's interest - rate cut affected the market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 was 800 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.56%), with a decrease in positions. The port spot prices of some varieties fell. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by blast furnace operations. The inventory situation was complex [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of coking coal 2601 contract was 1203.5 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton (2.39%), with a decrease in positions. The supply was tight due to mine accidents, and the downstream procurement was different [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of coke 2601 contract was 1709 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan/ton (1.47%), with a decrease in positions. The spot price in the port market rose. The raw material price rebounded, and the profit of coking enterprises shrank [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, with an increase in positions. The market price was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was limited. There were news about eliminating backward production capacity, and the steel - tender price was still under negotiation [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 5756 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, with an increase in positions. The market price was basically stable. The production was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Price Spreads**: Information on the profit (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as卷螺差,螺矿比, etc.) of different commodities was presented, including the latest values and their changes [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the basis of the main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][19][20][23][24][25][26]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities [28][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][42]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts presented the spreads between different commodities (such as主力合约卷螺差,主力合约螺矿比, etc.) [44][45][46][48]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) over different time periods [49][50][52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more obvious weakness on the demand side. It is expected that the short - term thread disk will mainly operate in a narrow range. The iron ore price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend under the interweaving of multiple factors. Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to operate in an oscillating manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Rebar - The rebar futures market was strongly oscillating. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 65,900 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume recovered. From January to August, national fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12.9%, manufacturing investment up 5.1%, and infrastructure investment up 2.0%. The production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel from January to August was 579.07 million, 671.81 million, and 982.17 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 1.1%, - 2.8%, and 5.5%. In August, the production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel was 69.79 million, 77.37 million, and 122.77 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.0%, - 0.7%, and 9.7%. The daily output of crude steel in August was 2.496 million tons, the lowest daily output in the same period since 2018, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that the short - term rebar disk will mainly operate in a narrow range [1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 first fell and then rose, closing at 796 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The market prices of mainstream port spot varieties were weakly operating. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. On the demand side, after the resumption of production from production restrictions, the molten iron output increased by 117,100 tons to 2.4055 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons to 144.5612 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 530,000 tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level oscillating trend [1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 3.76%, with an increase of 33,039 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of main coking raw coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 35 yuan to 770 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal market was strongly operating. On the supply side, affected by safety accidents, the production recovery in some areas was slow, and market trading was still weak. On the demand side, the molten iron output returned to a high level, but after the second round of coke price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises was further compressed, and downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was not high. It is expected that the short - term coking coal disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1688.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton or 3.88%, with a reduction of 122 lots in positions. In the spot market, the spot price of coke in ports rose. On the supply side, the purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in East and North China was lowered by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented. The current coke supply was relatively loose. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills drove the rapid recovery of molten iron output, but the performance of the finished product market was flat, and the inventory accumulation of finished products still existed. Some steel mills began to control the arrival rhythm. It is expected that the short - term coke disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.5 Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5906 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 2156 lots to 327,700 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions were 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of manganese silicon futures moved up. The mainstream steel tender pricing has not been announced yet. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of manganese silicon was still at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the recent output of rebar was at a relatively low level, and the demand of sample steel mills for manganese silicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of manganese ore was relatively firm, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 4705 lots to 213,300 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions were about 5280 - 5330 yuan/ton, and the prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of ferrosilicon futures moved up. On the supply side, the short - term output of ferrosilicon was difficult to significantly decrease. On the demand side, the mainstream steel tender showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, and the demand of sample steel mills for ferrosilicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of ferrosilicon was rising, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will be affected by the black sector and mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and price differences between varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - This part includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the price trends and relationships of different black commodities [6][17][25]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry research field [53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: Steel (narrow - range consolidation), Iron Ore (oscillation), Coking Coal (oscillation), Coke (oscillation), Manganese Silicon (oscillation), and Silicon Ferrosilicon (oscillation) [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a weak oscillation. High production, low demand, and inventory accumulation in the peak season pressured prices. However, as steel prices fell, cost support increased. It is expected to move in a narrow - range in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose. Supply saw a decline in global shipments, and demand had a drop in iron - water production and a decline in the steel mill profitability rate. With multiple factors at play, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price dropped. Some mines in the main production areas resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious. After the first round of coke price cuts, the demand for coking coal was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The futures price declined. Coke production increased due to good profit margins, while steel mills' demand was mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement showed new progress, but production was at a relatively high level, and demand was not strong. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement increased, but production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (0.29%). Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. Production was high, demand was low, and inventory was accumulating. Cost support increased [1] - Iron Ore: The i2601 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (1.6%). Spot prices were strong. Global shipments decreased, and iron - water production and steel mill inventories declined [1] - Coking Coal: The 2601 contract closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (1.75%). Spot prices in some areas changed. Mines resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious [1] - Coke: The 2601 contract closed at 1597.5 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (1.39%). Spot prices fell. Coke production increased, and steel mills' demand was for on - demand procurement [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price was 5838 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory increased [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price was 5620 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various commodities had different spreads and changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 47.0, down 3.0 [3] - Basis: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the 01 contract basis of rebar was 117.0, up 9.0 [3] - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions had various changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3240.0, unchanged [3] - Profits and Spreads: Different profit indicators and inter - commodity spreads changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 47.0, down 19.2 [3] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts of various black commodities [17][18][19][21][22][24] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts displayed the historical spreads of different contracts of various black commodities [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39] - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts showed the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio [41][42][43][45] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts presented the historical profits of rebar main contracts, including futures profits, long - process profits, and short - process profits [46][47][48][49][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. The production of rebar has been rising, demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. Many steel mills are at the break - even point or in loss, leading to an increase in maintenance. [1] - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply has increased slightly, while demand has decreased, and inventory has declined. [1] - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate weakly with fluctuations in the short - term. Due to factors such as the military parade and weak steel market, supply is affected, and demand is weakening. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term. For manganese silicon, production is increasing, and cost support is weak; for ferrosilicon, production is at a high level, and demand and cost factors are complex. [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Rebar**: As of September 1, some steel mills in Tangshan carried out blast furnace maintenance, with an estimated daily impact on hot metal of about 122,300 tons. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume rebounded. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The i2601 contract closed at 771.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Port spot prices were strong. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore demand decreased, and inventory at ports and steel mills declined. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1112.5 yuan/ton on September 3, down 6 yuan/ton. Spot prices in the Mongolian coal market were mixed. Supply was tight in the short - term due to the military parade, and demand was weak due to high steel billet inventory and low steel prices. [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1596.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports were stable. Coking enterprise profits were good, but production was restricted, and demand was weakening due to the high - level inventory of steel billets and low steel prices. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded, with the main contract closing at 5744 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The market price was 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton. Production was increasing, and cost support was weak. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5528 yuan/ton, up 0.77%. The market price was about 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. Production was at a high level, and new steel tenders were ongoing with price cuts. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For rebar, the 10 - 1 spread was - 70.0 (up 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48.0 (up 2.0); for hot - rolled coil, the 10 - 1 spread was 12.0 (down 5.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 14.0 (down 3.0); for other varieties, the spreads also showed different changes. [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 193.0 (down 18.0), and the basis of the 01 - contract was 123.0 (down 12.0). [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions of each variety had different changes. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai was 3240.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0), and the price in Beijing was 3180.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0). [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Rebar's long - process profit was - 17.2 (down 17.2), short - process profit was 25.6 (up 48.4), and various spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore spread also changed. [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][8][9][10][11][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of various varieties from 2022 - 2026. [17][18][19][21][22][23][24] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of various varieties from 2001 - 2026. [26][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][40] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) from 2020 - 2025. [42][43][44][46] - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 - 2025. [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the field of black commodities research. [53][54]