1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short - term, with a weak balance formed by multi - and short - factors at the current position. It's recommended to pay attention to the update of foreign market quotes and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [96]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port reached 548,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous period, a 17.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a 1.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease [5][6]. - In November 2025, the month - end inventory of European port pulp decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the total inventory dropping from 1.404 million tons at the end of October to 1.389 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 46 days (standard calculation method). The total shipment volume decreased by 6.9% year - on - year [7]. - In late December 2025, domestic white cardboard and food packaging paper industries started a price repair process. Leading paper enterprises such as Bohui and APP announced price increase plans, and Wuzhou Special Paper also followed suit [7]. 3.2 Market Data - As of December 31, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 68 yuan/ton, a 326.67% increase from the previous period; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 132 yuan/ton, a 42.61% increase from the previous period; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period [14]. - As of December 31, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a 25% decrease from the previous period; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 5.88% increase from the previous period [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between needle and broadleaf pulp narrowed, and the import profit rebounded. In January 2026, the FOB prices of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia increased by $20/ton [23][29]. - The price of imported needle pulp in the domestic market remained stable, and the price of imported broadleaf pulp was supported by cost and supply, with traders holding prices and waiting for real orders [31][33]. - The price of domestic broadleaf pulp increased, and the price of domestic chemical mechanical pulp remained stable [44][46]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [40]. - In November 2025, the inventory of European port pulp continued to decline, and the global pulp shipping volume also continued to decline [49]. - In October 2025, the shipment volume of W20 needle pulp was at a low level with high inventory; the inventory of broadleaf pulp was at a high level, but the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [51]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean needle pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; the export volume of four - country (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, Chile) broadleaf pulp to China decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54][61]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with needle pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and broadleaf pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [63]. 3.3.3 Demand - This week, the price of domestic offset paper remained stable, the price of copperplate paper was slightly adjusted, the price of white cardboard was stable with increased production, the price increase of household paper slowed down, and the terminal demand showed different trends in November [67][71][75][79][83]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 104,500 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous period [86]. - Overall, the port inventory was at a relatively low level within the year, and the sample inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend last week [93]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: Port inventory remained at a high level, and supply pressure persisted. As of January 4, 2026, Qingdao Port and Changshu Port had inventory accumulation during the holiday [96]. - Demand: In the downstream base paper market, the price of household paper was mainly range - bound, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and market sentiment was cautious [96]. - View: It is expected that the market will lack a breakthrough driver in the short - term, and a weak balance will be formed by long and short factors at the current position. The market is predicted to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend within the range. Attention should be paid to the update of foreign market quotes and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [96]. - Valuation: From the perspective of basis, on the 31st, the basis of silver star needle pulp in Shandong was 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [96]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Adopt an interval operation idea [5200 - 5860]; 2) Inter - period: Observe; 3) Inter - variety: Observe [96].

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase in raw materials, leading to a series of price hikes by paper companies, with expectations of improved profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][3]. Price Trends - Since the third quarter of this year, the price of raw paper used in the packaging paper industry has been continuously rising [2]. - As of November 24, the average daily price of corrugated paper was 3213 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%, while the average price of boxboard was 3889 yuan/ton, up 6.86% year-on-year [2]. Company Responses - Many paper companies have announced price increases ranging from 50 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton for various paper types, effective from late November to December 1, 2025 [2]. - A packaging paper company in Hebei raised its prices by 10% to 15%, lower than the 20% to 30% increase in raw paper prices, but production levels remain high [2]. Market Outlook - Daitong Securities believes the paper industry is benefiting from a combination of price increases, improved demand, and structural upgrades [3]. - The overall profitability of the packaging paper industry is expected to improve in the fourth quarter due to rising waste paper prices and government policies aimed at reducing competition [3]. Company Performance - Notable paper companies such as Sun Paper, Annie Co., Huatai Paper, and Bohui Paper have seen significant net buying in financing, indicating strong market interest [5]. - Forecasts suggest that Hengfeng Paper, Qifeng New Materials, and Bohui Paper will experience net profit growth rates of 70.67%, 35.33%, and 20.2% respectively in 2025 [5]. Investment Activity - Shanying International has attracted long-term investors to enhance its production capabilities and competitiveness in the packaging paper sector [6]. - The company is expected to improve its profit margins in the fourth quarter despite previous price declines [6].

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks have collectively risen, with notable increases in companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper, driven by recent price adjustments in various paper products [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) increased by 5.34%, reaching HKD 6.11 [1] - Lee & Man Paper (02314) rose by 4.18%, reaching HKD 2.99 [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - Several major domestic pulp and paper companies have announced price increases for products such as white card paper, copper plate card, food card, recycled kraft paper, and high-strength corrugated paper [1] - The price adjustment range is between 50 CNY/ton to 200 CNY/ton, with implementation scheduled mainly from late November to December 1, 2025 [1] Group 3: Market Trends - After five years of stagnation, the white card paper industry is beginning to rebound [1] - Driven by e-commerce stocking demands, paper companies are maintaining high operating rates, supported by high costs and low inventory levels [1] - White card paper prices have been consistently rising since November, with a strong determination from companies to increase prices due to significant pressure on industry profitability and confirmed replenishment intentions from downstream packaging paper manufacturers [1] - It is expected that paper manufacturers will aim to improve profitability, leading to a continued steady increase in white card paper prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks have collectively risen, with notable increases in companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper, driven by recent price adjustments in various paper products [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Several major domestic pulp and paper companies have announced price increases for products including white cardboard, coated paper, food-grade cardboard, recycled kraft paper, and high-strength corrugated paper, with adjustments ranging from 50 to 200 yuan per ton [1] - The implementation of these price changes is primarily scheduled between late November and early December 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - After five years of stagnation, the white cardboard industry is showing signs of recovery [1] - Driven by e-commerce stocking demands, paper companies are maintaining high operating rates, supported by high costs and low inventory levels, which have contributed to the continued price increase of corrugated and boxboard paper [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - White cardboard prices have been consistently rising since November, with a strong determination from companies to increase prices due to significant pressure on industry profitability and a clear willingness from downstream packaging paper manufacturers to replenish stocks [1] - It is anticipated that paper manufacturers will aim to improve profitability, leading to a steady upward trend in white cardboard prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dual glue paper market is expected to see a slight price increase in November due to a combination of increased demand from publishers and rising production costs from paper companies [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - Since September, some publishing groups have initiated tenders for spring 2026 textbooks, indicating a potential increase in demand in November [1]. - The dual glue paper market experienced weak trading in September and October, with only a few tenders issued in central and northern China, leading to a continued decline in prices [2]. - As of October 28, the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white dual glue paper was 4,731 yuan/ton, and for 70g wood pulp natural white dual glue paper was 4,430 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.26% and 0.62% respectively compared to the end of September [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Production Costs - Several large paper companies have announced price increases of 200 yuan/ton for November, driven by strong pricing intentions amid rising production costs [4]. - The average price of broadleaf pulp increased by 0.60% in October compared to September, contributing to higher raw material costs for dual glue paper [4]. - The dual glue paper market has been under pressure, with theoretical profitability dropping to negative territory since July 2025, indicating significant operational challenges for paper companies [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The dual glue paper market is expected to see a slight price increase of 1%-3% in November, although overall demand support remains limited due to cautious purchasing behavior from distributors [6]. - The supply-demand imbalance persists, with new production capacity in southern China adding pressure, but some production lines in eastern China may undergo maintenance, potentially easing supply pressure [6]. - The upcoming tender announcements from publishers may enhance market sentiment, but the overall demand outlook for November is not expected to show significant improvement [6].

Group 1 - Multiple packaging paper companies have announced a new round of price increases, marking the 10th price hike since August [1][3] - The increase in paper prices is attributed to rising demand due to the upcoming "Double Festival" and the rising costs of raw materials, particularly waste paper [3][5] - The price of corrugated paper and kraft paper has seen increases of 30 to 50 yuan per ton, with some companies reporting a total increase of 200 yuan per ton this month [3][5] Group 2 - The cost of raw paper constitutes 70% to 80% of the total cost of producing paper boxes, leading to higher prices for finished products [5] - From late July, the price of corrugated paper has risen from approximately 2800 yuan per ton to an increase of 300 to 350 yuan, reflecting a rise of 10% to 15% [7]

Core Insights - Multiple paper companies have announced price increases, with some raising prices up to four times in the past month [1] - The price increase for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper has reached 30-50 yuan per ton [1] - The primary reason for this round of price hikes is the rising cost of raw materials, particularly the rebound in waste paper prices [1] Industry Summary - Several paper enterprises have recently issued announcements regarding price hikes, indicating a trend in the industry [1] - The price of waste yellow board paper has gradually rebounded after hitting a nearly six-year low in February, reaching 1567 yuan per ton by the end of July, with a monthly increase of 6.74% in July [1]