编者按： 这里是民生调查局，见人所未见，调查民生之变。关注你想关注的、你没关注的，调查你想 看的、未看到的。 中新网北京8月17日电(记者 谢艺观)造纸行业再掀波澜。近段时间，各大纸企涨价函如雪花般涌来，有 企业甚至多次调价。为何纸企会接二连三宣布涨价？难道"洛阳纸贵"又要上演？ 涨价！涨价！涨价！ 7月以来，玖龙纸业、理文造纸、湖北荣成纸业、山鹰国际等业内知名纸企纷纷发布涨价函，涉及瓦楞 纸、再生牛卡纸、T纸、箱板纸、纱管纸等多类纸品。其中，玖龙纸业多个基地更是轮番调价，涨势强 劲。 中新网记者同时询问了电商平台上的快递盒、纸袋销售商家，多位客服表示，"价格暂时没调整，之后 是否上调具体要等通知。" 纸企为何纷纷调价？ 纸企巨头上调纸价后，其他纸企亦陆续跟涨，这波纸企涨价愈演愈烈。综合各公司调价信息，涨价范围 多是在每吨30元至50元之间。 上游原纸涨势不止，也波及到下游包装行业。近日，多个包装企业发布通知，上调纸板价格。 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至8月7日，中国AA级瓦楞纸120g市场均价2573元/吨，较上月底上调 1.90%；中国箱板纸市场均价3461元/吨，较上月底上调0.32%。 资料图。 谢艺观 ...

Group 1 - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) shares increased by over 6%, reaching HKD 4.98 with a trading volume of HKD 45.85 million [1] - Nine Dragons Paper (Beihai) successfully launched the PM56 production line, which has a design speed of 1000m/min and an annual production capacity of 250,000 tons of high-grade cultural paper [1] - The company is also constructing another cultural paper production line, PM55, expected to commence production by the end of this year [1] Group 2 - On August 1, Nine Dragons Paper raised the price of corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper by HKD 30 per ton, following multiple price increases in July [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the paper industry is expected to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and the "anti-involution" trend [1] - Guotai Junan noted that the new national standards have strengthened energy consumption restrictions, favoring leading paper companies over smaller competitors, potentially initiating a new supply-side clearing cycle in the industry [1]

Group 1 - Nine Dragons Paper Industries (02689) saw a stock increase of over 6%, reaching HKD 4.98 with a trading volume of HKD 45.85 million [1] - The PM56 production line of Nine Dragons Paper (Beihai) has successfully commenced operations, with a design capacity of 250,000 tons of high-grade cultural paper annually [1] - The company is also constructing another cultural paper production line, PM55, which is expected to be operational by the end of this year [1] Group 2 - On August 1, Nine Dragons Paper raised the prices of corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper by HKD 30 per ton, following multiple price increases in July [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend due to supply-demand imbalances and profitability at the bottom of the cycle [1] - Guotai Junan pointed out that the new national standards have strengthened energy consumption restrictions, favoring leading paper companies with new and old capacity advantages over smaller firms, potentially catalyzing a new supply-side clearing cycle in the industry [1]

Fixed Income Research - The new bond tax regulation, effective from August 8, 2025, reinstates VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, while maintaining VAT exemption for bonds issued before this date until maturity [2][3] - The tax policy change reduces the tax advantages previously enjoyed by government and financial bonds, particularly affecting public funds, asset management products, and proprietary trading departments differently based on their tax rates [3][4] - The new regulation is expected to widen the yield spread between new and old bonds by approximately 4-12 basis points, influencing investor behavior towards older bonds [4][5] - The anticipated annual tax revenue increase from the new bond tax regulation is estimated to be in the hundreds of millions, which is relatively limited compared to the total debt interest expenditure [5] Fund Research - In July, the market saw an increase in valuations across major indices, with the CSI 500 showing significant growth in historical valuation percentiles [7] - A total of 92 new funds were launched in July, with a total issuance scale of 703.43 billion, indicating a strong interest in both active equity and index funds [7][8] - Growth style funds outperformed value style funds, with mid-cap growth funds showing a notable increase of 8.23% [8] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 676.83 billion, with significant interest in bond ETFs, while stock ETFs faced outflows [9][10] Industry Research - The retail sales of furniture reached 98.2 billion, growing by 22.9% year-on-year, while clothing and textile retail sales totaled 742.59 billion, with a growth of 3.1% [14] - The introduction of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to boost the entire maternity and childcare industry, particularly benefiting sectors like maternal and infant products [14][15] - The Guangdong Paper Association's initiative to promote "anti-involution" is likely to lead to price increases in packaging paper, benefiting leading companies in the sector [15] - The easing of Sino-US tariff issues may provide support for domestic exports, particularly for companies with a global layout [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in the packaging paper market are driven by rising costs and supply constraints, with major paper companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International implementing multiple price hikes in a short period. The industry is facing a "low-price competition" dilemma, leading to a need for price recovery to restore profit margins and stimulate downstream inventory replenishment [1][3][6]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Since early July, multiple price increase notices have been issued, with prices for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard rising by 30 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper reached 1482 yuan/ton in late July, a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [1]. - The price hikes aim to address the high inventory levels of paper manufacturers and stimulate downstream demand for replenishment as the industry transitions from a low season to a peak season [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The core issue of oversupply in the industry is attributed to weak downstream demand, continuous capacity expansion, and intensified inter-regional competition [4][5]. - The China Paper Association reported that in 2024, the industry is expected to generate revenue of 1.46 trillion yuan, with profits only reaching 52 billion yuan, resulting in a profit margin of 3% to 5% [5]. - The industry is calling for a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement to resist low-price competition and promote rational business practices [2][6]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Future Outlook - Major companies are pursuing strategic transformations, such as Sun Paper's integrated "forest-pulp-paper" model and Xianhe's significant investments in raw material projects [8]. - The industry is facing challenges in establishing a clear policy framework for the anti-involution movement, with suggestions to shift focus from price competition to service, quality, and innovation [9]. - The need for industry self-discipline and fair trading practices is emphasized to ensure the health of the supply chain and avoid detrimental low-price competition [9].

Group 1: Company Developments - Sanan Optoelectronics plans to jointly acquire Lumileds Holding B.V. for $239 million, with a total investment of $280 million to establish a joint venture in Hong Kong [2] - Sanan Optoelectronics is a leading company in the domestic compound semiconductor sector, with advanced core technology and R&D capabilities [2] - The company has achieved mass production of 400G optical chips and small batch production of 800G optical chips, while 1.6T optical chips are still under development [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - Multiple paper companies have announced price increases, with some raising prices four times in a month, and corrugated paper prices increasing by 30 to 50 yuan per ton [3] - The rise in waste paper prices, which increased to 1567 yuan per ton by the end of July, is the main reason for the current paper price hikes [3] - The paper industry is experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with a focus on optimizing capacity and enhancing innovation to escape low-price competition [4] Group 3: Market Performance - As of August 1, the A-share market capitalization of the paper industry is 157.6 billion yuan, with several companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Co. exceeding 10 billion yuan in market value [6] - The average increase in paper stocks this year is 9.49%, with three stocks rising over 40% [6] - Four paper companies reported positive earnings, with Minshida achieving a net profit of 63 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 42.28% year-on-year increase [6][11] Group 4: Valuation Insights - As of August 1, seven paper stocks have a rolling P/E ratio below 30, indicating potential undervaluation [9] - Nineteen stocks have a P/B ratio below 2, with some companies trading below net asset value [9] - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "de-involution" trend, with limited new capacity expected in 2025-2026, which may improve overall industry conditions [5]

Core Insights - Multiple paper companies have announced price increases, with some raising prices up to four times in the past month [1] - The price increase for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper has reached 30-50 yuan per ton [1] - The primary reason for this round of price hikes is the rising cost of raw materials, particularly the rebound in waste paper prices [1] Industry Summary - Several paper enterprises have recently issued announcements regarding price hikes, indicating a trend in the industry [1] - The price of waste yellow board paper has gradually rebounded after hitting a nearly six-year low in February, reaching 1567 yuan per ton by the end of July, with a monthly increase of 6.74% in July [1]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first half of 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 4.3% in June [2][3] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by increased working days and the delayed effect of tariff suspension on exports [3][4] - The operating income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while the profit margin decreased to 5.15%, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on enterprise profits [3][4] Fiscal Data Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4% to 141,271 billion yuan [6][9] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4% to 19,442 billion yuan, but expenditure surged by 30% to 46,273 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in fiscal spending [6][10] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year, reflecting a robust fiscal support environment [10] Fund Research - All major indices in the equity market were raised, with public fund scale surpassing 34 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [12][14] - The week saw a net inflow of 19.22 billion yuan into the ETF market, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs, while stock ETFs experienced net outflows [14][15] - The issuance of new funds decreased, with 23 new funds launched, raising 276.61 billion yuan, reflecting a slight contraction in market activity [14][15] Industry Research - The paper industry is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" sentiments, with a 5.07% increase in the paper sector from July 1 to 25, 2025 [16][20] - The third batch of national subsidies amounting to 69 billion yuan has been allocated to support the consumption of old goods, which is expected to stabilize furniture product sales [20] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind, indicating sector-specific performance variations [16][20]

Industry Overview - The Guangdong Provincial Paper Industry Association has issued the first "anti-involution" initiative in the domestic paper industry, aiming to promote high-quality development by resisting low-price competition, optimizing capacity structure, enhancing quality and innovation, and establishing self-regulatory mechanisms [1] - Guangdong is the second-largest paper-producing province in China, with a projected paper and board output of 26.48 million tons in 2024, an 8.1% year-on-year increase, accounting for 16.7% of the national total [1] - The packaging paper segment constitutes 72.3% of the total output, with main products including boxboard and corrugated paper [1] Price Trends - The paper industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes of 30 yuan per ton for products such as corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper starting August 1 [2] - The frequency of price adjustments has increased significantly this year, with multiple price hikes occurring in March-April, May, and July [2] - Rising raw material costs, particularly for waste cardboard, have been a primary driver of these price increases, with the market price for waste yellow cardboard reaching 1,475 yuan per ton as of July 21, a 15 yuan increase from June 30 [2] Market Dynamics - The packaging paper market, particularly for corrugated and boxboard paper, has faced a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a downward price trend in the first half of the year [3] - The average price for corrugated paper was 2,682 yuan per ton, down 2.44% year-on-year, while boxboard paper averaged 3,616 yuan per ton, down 3.42% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margins for the corrugated paper and boxboard paper industries have declined, with margins at 9.97% and 18.96% respectively, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability [3] Company Performance - Chenming Paper has issued a profit warning for the first half of 2025, expecting a net loss of 3.5 to 4 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 28.65 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to production halts for maintenance [4] - Nine Dragons Paper has received an upgrade from Citigroup, which anticipates a 58% year-on-year increase in core profit to 811 million yuan, with revenue expected to remain stable at approximately 28.782 billion yuan [4] - Lee & Man Paper is a global leader in the paper industry, with an annual production capacity exceeding 9 million tons, including 7 million tons of packaging paper [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [2][43] - The report recommends "Buy" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Explorer (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co. (002891) [2][45] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the third batch of national subsidies, which is expected to stimulate demand for furniture products and stabilize domestic sales growth for the year [2][42] - The "anti-involution" sentiment has positively influenced the paper industry, with corrugated board prices rising by 5.07% from July 1 to July 25, 2025 [2][41] - The report notes that major paper companies are set to increase prices for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard, which may help boost packaging paper prices [2][41] Industry News - Eldorado and Suzano signed an unprecedented cooperation agreement involving the exchange of "standing timber" for pulp production [8] - Puma forecasts a loss in 2025, with sales expected to decline by over 10% due to weak sales and tariff impacts [8] Company Announcements - Yuanfei Pet plans to implement a stock incentive plan for 62 employees, involving 2.5095 million shares [33] - Rebecca reported a more than 15% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in cross-border e-commerce [33] Market Review - From July 21 to July 25, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, with notable performances in the paper sector [34] - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, with some stocks facing pressure after previous gains [38]