1 月行业提价逐步落地，盈利进入改善通道 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 1 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，盈利略有承压，预 计木浆市场供应先降后增，需求跟进不足，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸价格承压。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《12 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖》 2026.01.07 造纸业《11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖》 2025.12.10 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸 ...

1 月行业提价逐步落地，盈利进入改善通道 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 1 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，盈利略有承压，预 计木浆市场供应先降后增，需求跟进不足，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸价格承压。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《12 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖》 2026.01.07 造纸业《11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖》 2025.12.10 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the market for wood pulp is experiencing price increases in the external market, while domestic prices are showing signs of slowing growth. The report anticipates a continued rise in pulp prices by January 2026, with gradual price transmission for white paper and ongoing increases for black paper [1][6]. Group 2 - Cultural paper prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper at 4730 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.04% month-on-month. Factors influencing this include cautious purchasing behavior from distributors and a lack of effective price transmission from wood pulp to paper [2]. - White cardboard prices are rising, with the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard at 4237 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% month-on-month. This is attributed to low price levels and cost pressures, with some traders raising prices by 50-100 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of corrugated paper is under pressure, with the average market price for AA-grade 120g corrugated paper at 3129 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.29%. Contributing factors include a mixed sentiment among suppliers and limited improvement in demand from the packaging sector [4]. - The waste paper market is experiencing an overall price decline, with the average price for waste yellow board paper at 1767 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.18% month-on-month. This is due to increased supply and a bearish outlook from downstream paper mills [5]. - The wood pulp market is characterized by a mixed price trend, with external prices for broadleaf pulp continuing to rise while domestic prices are stabilizing. The average price for wood pulp is influenced by fluctuations in futures contracts and varying supply-demand dynamics [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The report highlights the opportunity in the paper sector due to the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which enhances domestic purchasing power and reduces costs for imported raw materials like wood pulp [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with high wood pulp procurement costs, such as Zhongshun Jierou, and recommends Sun Paper for its integrated advantages in cultural paper production [5][6] - The report also emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in Q4 due to stabilized and rising pulp prices, alongside the release of new production capacity [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The light industry sector includes 167 listed companies with a total market value of 1,204.38 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 954.25 billion CNY [1] Market Performance - For the week of December 22-26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.53%. The light industry index gained 1.69%, ranking 16th among 28 Shenwan industries [10] - The paper sector saw a weekly increase of 4.47%, while the textile and apparel index rose by 2.86% [10] Key Company Recommendations - Sun Paper: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 1.10 CNY in 2023 to 1.48 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 14.25 to 10.60 [3] - Baiya Co.: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.54 CNY in 2023 to 1.28 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 38.94 to 16.49 [3] - Huali Group: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 2.74 CNY in 2023 to 3.97 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 19.24 to 13.27 [3] Raw Material Price Trends - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with MDI and TDI prices decreasing, while cotton prices have shown an upward trend [18][22] - The average price of wood pulp and various paper products is tracked, indicating a mixed performance with some prices stabilizing and others showing slight increases [42] Housing Market Data - The report highlights a significant decline in property sales, with a 39.1% year-on-year decrease in transactions among major cities [31] - Cumulative property sales area from January to November 2025 shows a 7.8% decline year-on-year [59] Consumer Goods and AI Applications - The report discusses the potential of AI applications in consumer goods, particularly in the context of new product launches and market expansion opportunities [6] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the paper sector due to favorable currency movements and suggests specific companies for investment based on their cost structures and market positions [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the paper industry Core Insights - In November, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while white cardboard continued to see price hikes, cultural paper prices stabilized, and black paper prices continued to rise. Profitability is slightly under pressure, with expectations for continued price increases in December for pulp and gradual transmission of price increases for white paper, while black paper prices are expected to maintain their upward trend [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Price: Strong willingness from paper mills to raise prices, stabilizing terminal prices. As of November 26, the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper was 4731 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 3 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 7.78% [8][22] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap narrowed in November due to the initiation of new publishing tenders and improved order conditions for paper mills, with expectations for higher demand than supply in December [11][12] - Profitability: Rising costs and falling prices led to a decrease in profitability, with the average theoretical gross margin for double glue paper at -7.78% as of November 26 [22] White Cardboard - Price: Continued price increases driven by price notifications from paper mills. As of November 26, the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard was 4194 CNY/ton, up 3.30% from October [25] - Supply and Demand: The supply-demand gap is expected to widen due to increased production and slightly declining demand, impacting the potential for price increases [28][30] - Profitability: The gross margin for white cardboard improved due to price increases outpacing cost increases, with a margin increase of 2.72 percentage points compared to October [39] Boxboard - Price: Continuous price increases with an average market price of 3843 CNY/ton as of November 26, reflecting a 3.86% increase from October [40] - Supply and Demand: Industry demand is expected to decrease, leading to increased supply pressure. The supply-demand gap narrowed in November due to reduced supply from paper mills [43][46] - Profitability: Profitability remains under pressure as price increases do not fully offset rising costs [40] Waste Paper - Price: Continued price increases due to tight supply conditions, with overall supply decreasing [4][48] - Supply and Demand: Supply remains tight, with improved willingness to sell from packing stations [4][48] Wood Pulp - Price: Continued price increases for imported hardwood pulp, with domestic prices showing signs of slowing growth [6][15] - Supply and Demand: Demand is expected to remain stable in December, with an anticipated increase in domestic production [6][17]

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase for products such as corrugated paper and boxboard, driven by multiple factors including rising raw material costs, industry self-regulation, and improved demand dynamics. The competitive landscape is shifting from price competition to value collaboration, enhancing the market power of leading companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International have issued price increase notices, raising prices by 50 to 80 yuan per ton for key products [1]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper has risen to approximately 1800 yuan per ton by the end of October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.92% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance has improved significantly since 2025, with leading companies voluntarily reducing production to stabilize prices [2][3]. - Factors such as increased consumption of waste yellow board paper and a decrease in finished paper inventory have contributed to a stable demand environment [3]. Group 3: Industry Strategy Shift - Leading companies are shifting their strategies from "market share acquisition" to "profit preservation," utilizing tactics like production halts and price increases to manage supply and demand effectively [3]. - The industry is moving towards a new phase characterized by "collaborative price maintenance" and "capacity exchange," driven by the dominance of leading firms [3].

Core Insights - Multiple paper companies have announced price increases, with some raising prices up to four times in the past month [1] - The price increase for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper has reached 30-50 yuan per ton [1] - The primary reason for this round of price hikes is the rising cost of raw materials, particularly the rebound in waste paper prices [1] Industry Summary - Several paper enterprises have recently issued announcements regarding price hikes, indicating a trend in the industry [1] - The price of waste yellow board paper has gradually rebounded after hitting a nearly six-year low in February, reaching 1567 yuan per ton by the end of July, with a monthly increase of 6.74% in July [1]

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing a price hike of 30 yuan/ton for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper starting August 1, driven by rising raw material costs and tightening supply [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - July has seen the fourth round of price increases in the paper industry, with a consistent rise in various types of raw paper prices, each time by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 21, the market price for waste yellow board paper reached 1475 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to June 30 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in waste yellow board paper prices is attributed to overall limited supply and heavy rainfall affecting local waste paper trading, leading to a decrease in market supply [2]. - Major paper companies have been steadily raising their procurement prices for waste yellow board paper, which has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the waste paper market and provided cost support for finished paper price increases [2]. Group 3: Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, the corrugated and box board paper markets continued to experience a supply-demand imbalance, with average prices declining: corrugated paper at 2682 yuan/ton (down 2.44% year-on-year) and box board paper at 3616 yuan/ton (down 3.42% year-on-year) [3]. - The gross profit margins for the corrugated paper industry and box board paper industry were 9.97% and 18.96%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The overall profitability of the industry remains under pressure due to the supply exceeding demand, with expectations of a price recovery in the second half of the year, although it may not fully offset the declines seen in the first half [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corrugated and boxboard paper market is mainly stable with some price increases. The downstream orders have not improved significantly, but the inventory pressure on paper mills has eased [4]. - Paper companies' price - increase letters and tariff policy adjustments have boosted market confidence and downstream replenishment enthusiasm. However, weak terminal demand restricts the price - increase transmission efficiency, and some small and medium - sized paper enterprises still face over - capacity problems [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis (First Part) - The daily average price of China's AA - grade 120g corrugated paper is 2540 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase from the previous working day. The average price of China's boxboard paper is 3524.4 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase [4]. - The price of waste yellow board paper in the Shandong market has risen. The national average price is 1452 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The supply of waste yellow board paper in some areas is short, and paper mills' purchasing intention is strong [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook (Second Part) - Paper companies' concentrated price - increase letters and tariff policy adjustments have increased the market confidence and downstream packaging enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm. The order volume of paper companies in the eastern and southern coastal areas has increased this week, and the inventory turnover days have generally fallen below 15 days [8]. - Weak terminal demand in traditional packaging industries restricts the price - increase transmission efficiency. Small and medium - sized paper enterprises still face over - capacity pressure, and there are hidden price cuts in some regions [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments (Third Part) - There are four charts including corrugated paper production, in - plant inventory, social inventory, and production profit, showing the data from 2021 - 2025 [9][11]