11 月包装纸延续上涨，文化纸待回暖 [Table_Industry] 造纸业 造纸行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 王文杰(分析师) | 021-23185637 | wangwenjie4@gtht.com | S0880525040070 | 本报告导读： 11 月阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，黑纸持续上涨， 盈利略有承压，我们预计 12 月浆价持续上涨，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸延续上涨。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 造纸业《10 月包装纸表现较好，文化纸需求较 弱》2025.11.16 造纸业《全球视角看阔叶木材供需变化趋势》 2025.10.26 造纸业《9 月多数纸种价格上涨，文化纸表现疲 软》2025.10.15 造纸业《8 月木浆及黑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase for products such as corrugated paper and boxboard, driven by multiple factors including rising raw material costs, industry self-regulation, and improved demand dynamics. The competitive landscape is shifting from price competition to value collaboration, enhancing the market power of leading companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International have issued price increase notices, raising prices by 50 to 80 yuan per ton for key products [1]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper has risen to approximately 1800 yuan per ton by the end of October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.92% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance has improved significantly since 2025, with leading companies voluntarily reducing production to stabilize prices [2][3]. - Factors such as increased consumption of waste yellow board paper and a decrease in finished paper inventory have contributed to a stable demand environment [3]. Group 3: Industry Strategy Shift - Leading companies are shifting their strategies from "market share acquisition" to "profit preservation," utilizing tactics like production halts and price increases to manage supply and demand effectively [3]. - The industry is moving towards a new phase characterized by "collaborative price maintenance" and "capacity exchange," driven by the dominance of leading firms [3].

Core Insights - Multiple paper companies have announced price increases, with some raising prices up to four times in the past month [1] - The price increase for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper has reached 30-50 yuan per ton [1] - The primary reason for this round of price hikes is the rising cost of raw materials, particularly the rebound in waste paper prices [1] Industry Summary - Several paper enterprises have recently issued announcements regarding price hikes, indicating a trend in the industry [1] - The price of waste yellow board paper has gradually rebounded after hitting a nearly six-year low in February, reaching 1567 yuan per ton by the end of July, with a monthly increase of 6.74% in July [1]

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing a price hike of 30 yuan/ton for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper starting August 1, driven by rising raw material costs and tightening supply [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - July has seen the fourth round of price increases in the paper industry, with a consistent rise in various types of raw paper prices, each time by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 21, the market price for waste yellow board paper reached 1475 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to June 30 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in waste yellow board paper prices is attributed to overall limited supply and heavy rainfall affecting local waste paper trading, leading to a decrease in market supply [2]. - Major paper companies have been steadily raising their procurement prices for waste yellow board paper, which has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the waste paper market and provided cost support for finished paper price increases [2]. Group 3: Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, the corrugated and box board paper markets continued to experience a supply-demand imbalance, with average prices declining: corrugated paper at 2682 yuan/ton (down 2.44% year-on-year) and box board paper at 3616 yuan/ton (down 3.42% year-on-year) [3]. - The gross profit margins for the corrugated paper industry and box board paper industry were 9.97% and 18.96%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The overall profitability of the industry remains under pressure due to the supply exceeding demand, with expectations of a price recovery in the second half of the year, although it may not fully offset the declines seen in the first half [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corrugated and boxboard paper market is mainly stable with some price increases. The downstream orders have not improved significantly, but the inventory pressure on paper mills has eased [4]. - Paper companies' price - increase letters and tariff policy adjustments have boosted market confidence and downstream replenishment enthusiasm. However, weak terminal demand restricts the price - increase transmission efficiency, and some small and medium - sized paper enterprises still face over - capacity problems [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis (First Part) - The daily average price of China's AA - grade 120g corrugated paper is 2540 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase from the previous working day. The average price of China's boxboard paper is 3524.4 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase [4]. - The price of waste yellow board paper in the Shandong market has risen. The national average price is 1452 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The supply of waste yellow board paper in some areas is short, and paper mills' purchasing intention is strong [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook (Second Part) - Paper companies' concentrated price - increase letters and tariff policy adjustments have increased the market confidence and downstream packaging enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm. The order volume of paper companies in the eastern and southern coastal areas has increased this week, and the inventory turnover days have generally fallen below 15 days [8]. - Weak terminal demand in traditional packaging industries restricts the price - increase transmission efficiency. Small and medium - sized paper enterprises still face over - capacity pressure, and there are hidden price cuts in some regions [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments (Third Part) - There are four charts including corrugated paper production, in - plant inventory, social inventory, and production profit, showing the data from 2021 - 2025 [9][11]