1H25 业绩符合我们预期 盈利预测与估值 由于公司主要矿产品价格上行，我们上调2025/2026 年净利润7%/21%至163/206 亿元。当前A 股股价对 应2025/2026 年14.6/11.5 倍市盈率，当前H 股股价对应2025/2026 年13.1/10.2 倍市盈率。A/H 股维持跑 赢行业评级，由于盈利上修及市场风险偏好提升，我们上调A 股目标价31%至14.5元，A 股目标价对应 2025/2026 年19/15 倍市盈率，较当前股价有30.5%的上行空间；上调H 股目标价49%至14 港币，H 股目 标价对应2025/2026 年17/13.1 倍市盈率，较当前股价有29.7%的上行空间。 风险 海外钴行业政策变化风险，项目推进不及预期风险，金属价格下跌风险 发展趋势 铜钴、黄金、钨钼业务有望共振向上。钴业务，一是伴随刚果（金）在途库存基本消耗完毕，我们认为 国内钴行业去库涨价在即。二是我们认为刚果（金）控量提价或长期化，全球钴价中枢有望系统性提 升。三是我们测算2024 年公司钴产量占全球超39%，我们认为公司有望受益于刚果（金）境外钴存货 重估及出口恢复后量降价升的业绩弹性。铜业务 ...

8月22日晚，洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"洛阳钼业"）发布2025年半年报。上半年，公 司实现营业收入947.73亿元；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为86.71亿元，同比增长60.07%，再创同期 历史新高。 今年上半年，洛阳钼业矿山端收入实现历史新高，达到394.02亿元，同比增长25.64%，其中铜矿山端营 业收入为257.18亿元，同比增长28.42%。 报告期内，公司各产品产量全部达成上半年度目标。其中，公司上半年产铜35.36万吨，同比增长 12.68%，按产量指引中值计算，完成度约56.1%；产钴6.11万吨，同比增长约13.05%。钼、钨、铌、磷 肥等产品产量均超过年度目标的50%。 作为全球排名前十的铜供应商，洛阳钼业在刚果（金）运营两座世界级矿山TFM和KFM，整体拥有6条 生产线、65万吨以上的年产铜能力。 中原期货有色金属分析师刘培洋在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，2025年上半年，国内外铜价走势 整体偏强，其中COMEX铜价表现最为强劲，成为全球铜价上涨的引领者。上海期货交易所铜期货上半 年均价约77400元/吨，同比上涨4.1%。 刘培洋表示，从国内供需来看，上半年国内铜 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 10.2 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company aims to become a world-class mining enterprise by acquiring gold mines and promoting organizational upgrades [10]. - The company reported a revenue of 213 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion CNY, up 64% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to enhance its copper and cobalt production capacity significantly over the next five years, targeting annual production of 800,000 to 1 million tons of copper and 90,000 to 100,000 tons of cobalt [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 46 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year and a 21% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was 3.95 billion CNY, up 90% year-on-year but down 25% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company expects revenues of 213.57 billion CNY, 218.09 billion CNY, and 223.87 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 15.02 billion CNY, 16.04 billion CNY, and 16.70 billion CNY [11][12]. Production and Sales - The company achieved significant increases in copper and cobalt production in 2024, with copper production reaching 650,200 tons (up 55% year-on-year) and cobalt production at 114,200 tons (up 106% year-on-year) [2]. - The company has set a production guidance for 2025 of 600,000 to 660,000 tons of copper and 100,000 to 120,000 tons of cobalt [2]. Price and Profitability - The average copper price in 2024 was 9,147 USD per ton, an increase of 8% year-on-year, while cobalt prices were 11.26 USD per pound, down 25% year-on-year [3]. - The gross profit for the copper segment in 2024 was 21.04 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 30.5% [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company announced plans to acquire Lumina Gold in Ecuador for approximately 581 million CAD, which is expected to become a new profit growth point [9]. - The company is also focusing on organizational upgrades by introducing a new management team to enhance operational efficiency and international competitiveness [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 10.2 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company aims to become a world-class mining enterprise by acquiring gold mines and promoting organizational upgrades [10]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 14% year-on-year increase in 2024 revenue to 213 billion CNY and a 64% increase in net profit to 13.5 billion CNY [1]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with significant increases in copper and cobalt production planned for 2024 and beyond [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 46 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 90% to 3.95 billion CNY [1]. - The company expects revenues of 213.57 billion CNY, 218.09 billion CNY, and 223.87 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 15.02 billion CNY, 16.04 billion CNY, and 16.70 billion CNY [11][12]. Production and Sales - The company achieved significant production targets in 2024, with copper and cobalt production increasing by 55% and 106% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The production guidance for 2025 is set at 600,000 to 660,000 tons of copper and 100,000 to 120,000 tons of cobalt [2]. Pricing and Profitability - The average copper price in 2024 was 9,147 USD/ton, an 8% increase year-on-year, while cobalt prices saw a significant rebound in Q1 2025 [3]. - The gross profit for the copper segment in 2024 was 21.04 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 30.5% [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to acquire Lumina Gold in Ecuador for approximately 581 million CAD, which is expected to become a new profit growth point [9]. - A new management team has been introduced to enhance organizational efficiency and drive the company's strategic goals [10].