热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 财经五月花 摘 要 中国从外贸角度，需要寻找新动能，即发力非美市场；从国内经济角度，同样需要寻找新动能，即培育 非地产的增长拉动因素 文|顾欣宇 编辑|张威 北京时间2026年1月20日，在高盛2026年中国宏观经济及资本市场动态展望媒体交流圆桌会上，高盛首 席中国经济学家闪辉预计，2026年中国实际国内生产总值（GDP）增速为4.8%，高于4.5%的市场共识 预测。她强调，中国从外贸角度，需要寻找新动能，即发力非美市场；从国内经济角度，同样需要寻找 新动能，即培育非地产的增长拉动因素。 闪辉表示，近年来，中国经济的两个重要领域（贸易和房地产）发生了重大变化。在贸易方面，中国在 美国总进口中的份额从2000年开始一直到2024年之后发生了大的转换。2000年中国占美国所有进口的比 例是7.5%。中国进入了世界贸易组织（WTO）之后，这条线一路往上走，最高的时候超过了20%。两 次贸易战之后，这个数字又回到了7.5%的位置。房地产的新开工率方面，从2000年到2020年，房地产 高歌猛进，但是2020年之后新房开工率的数字掉得非常厉害，在2024 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments to scientifically analyze the economic development environment and growth conditions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on new growth points in industries, expanding demand, and improving enterprise efficiency to solidify new economic momentum for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [5][6][9]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development Goals - The article highlights that China is entering a new phase of stable economic growth, necessitating a careful determination of growth targets by local governments [6][7]. - It notes that internal demand has become the core driving force for economic growth, with consumption's contribution to GDP increasing from 50% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 57% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - The article stresses the importance of setting realistic growth targets that are neither overly ambitious nor pessimistic, based on local resources and industrial foundations [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Development and Innovation - The article suggests that economic growth fundamentally relies on the cultivation and release of new industrial growth points, urging local governments to respect industrial evolution and identify promising sectors [11][12]. - It points out the significant shift in China's industrial structure, with the service sector's contribution to GDP rising to 56.7% by the end of 2024, while the industrial sector's contribution is declining [11][12]. - The article recommends focusing on enhancing the service sector's role in economic growth, particularly in lower-tier cities where its importance is often overlooked [12][14]. Group 3: Consumption and Demand Expansion - The article emphasizes the critical role of consumer purchasing power and market demand in driving economic growth, advocating for a focus on consumption-driven opportunities [15][16]. - It distinguishes between goods consumption and service consumption, noting that service consumption has a more direct local economic impact [16]. - The article highlights the need to adapt to changing consumer trends, particularly among younger and older demographics, to stimulate new consumption growth [18][19]. Group 4: Enterprise Development and Innovation - The article underscores the importance of enterprise vitality and development levels in determining local economic quality and efficiency, advocating for systematic policies to enhance enterprise efficiency and innovation [19][20]. - It calls for a dual focus on technological and model innovation to improve enterprise competitiveness, especially in the context of digital transformation [20][22]. - The article stresses the need for tailored strategies to enhance innovation capabilities across different regions, considering their unique industrial bases and development stages [23][24].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Reform Suggestions - The core discussion at the China Development Forum focused on stimulating new growth momentum through reforms in various sectors, including income disparity, local fiscal autonomy, technological innovation, capital market reform, and investment in human capital [1] - Liu Shijun emphasized the need to reduce urban-rural income gaps and improve the income of low-income groups to unleash economic vitality [2] - Gao Peiyong highlighted the importance of increasing local fiscal autonomy to invigorate local governments and drive economic growth [3][4] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Zheng Yongnian proposed that the focus of reforms should shift towards the technology and innovation sector, advocating for "appropriate regulation" and "de-regulation" to foster innovation [5][6] - He suggested establishing innovation special zones in regions with competitive advantages to support key technological breakthroughs [5] Group 3: Capital Market Reform - Liu Zunyi argued that current consumption-boosting policies are insufficient to address excess capacity and that investment needs to be stimulated through capital market reforms [7] - He proposed three specific measures: adjusting IPO pricing mechanisms, encouraging cash dividends, and facilitating stock issuance for companies to enhance financing opportunities for small and medium enterprises [7] Group 4: Investment in Human Capital - Li Daokui stressed the importance of "investing in people," indicating a shift in public spending towards improving living standards and encouraging childbirth [8] - He noted that the central government has significant potential to increase public debt, which could be utilized to support local governments in providing subsidies and training for labor [8]