Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by global market demand rather than solely domestic factors, with key influences from the China-US relationship and significant events such as trade agreements and US midterm elections [1][5][11]. Configuration Directions - Three major themes to focus on include: 1. Upgrading traditional manufacturing and resource industries to enhance pricing power and profit margins [2][4]. 2. Chinese companies expanding globally, significantly increasing profit growth potential and market capitalization [2][4]. 3. The commercialization of AI, which will continue to expand the technology sector's influence and amplify the competitive advantages of Chinese enterprises [2][4]. Market Phases - The market is expected to experience a two-phase bull market: "Bull Market 1.0" in 2025 focused on technology, and a potential transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026, driven by cyclical recovery and growth in manufacturing [3][6]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Recovery trades in cyclical industries such as basic chemicals and industrial metals [4]. 2. Technology trends with opportunities in AI, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industries [4][8]. 3. Enhanced influence of manufacturing, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post "9·24" with a focus on fundamental improvements and risk management against volatility, particularly in the context of evolving China-US relations and the AI revolution [5][11]. Sector Focus - Recommended sectors include: 1. New energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military, machinery, and computing [8][12]. 2. Themes such as new materials, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and cross-strait integration [8][12]. Overall Market Sentiment - The sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued inflow of incremental funds and a focus on sectors that may outperform expectations, particularly in AI and pragmatic cooperation between China and the US [11][12].

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) has shown a slight increase of 0.26% as of November 19, 2025, with notable gainers including Aerospace Development (000547) up 10.01% and Spring Wind Power (603129) up 8.14% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) has experienced a trading volume of 12.23 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 6.34%, and its average daily trading volume over the past month is 51.22 billion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 24.31 million yuan recently, with a total of 206 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 4.12 million yuan per day [1] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities suggests that profit-taking may lead to short-term volatility in the A-share market, but the long-term upward trend is expected to continue [2] - Debon Securities believes that despite short-term adjustments, the medium to long-term bull market pattern will persist, emphasizing the importance of policy support for economic data [2] - The A500 index includes 500 securities selected from various industries based on market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies [2] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) has several related funds, including the 华夏中证A500ETF联接 A (022430), C (022431), Y (022979), and the 华夏中证A500指数增强 A (023619), C (023620) [3]

从市场风格来看，傅静涛表示，2026年春季前，科技成长股可能还有小波段反弹；从春季到年中的过渡 阶段，高股息防御股可能占优；年中以后，预计"周期搭台，成长唱戏"，"政策底"催化顺周期板块引领 指数突破，最终科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升才是市场主线。 他建议2026年关注三大结构线索：一是周期Alpha、基础化工、工业金属等复苏交易板块；二是AI产业 链、人形机器人、储能、光伏，医药、军工等科技产业趋势板块；三是化工、工程机械等制造业影响力 提升的板块。 中证报中证网讯（记者 林倩）11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会，申万宏源A股策 略首席分析师傅静涛在演讲中表示，2026年春季，A股市场可能达到阶段性高点，2026年年中，"政策 底、市场底、经济底"依次出现，可能触发行情全面启动。 傅静涛预计，2026年中游制造供给可能出清，产能形成增速低于需求增速中枢的细分行业明显增加，自 下而上选股胜率提升。"政策底、市场底、经济底"依次出现，框架有效性回归，2026年年中是"政策 底"的验证时刻，A股行情可能全面启动。这轮行情主要依靠基本面周期性改善、新兴产业趋势强化、 居民资产配置向权益迁 ...

Core Insights - The market continues to experience wide fluctuations, influenced by the ups and downs of US-China negotiations, which significantly affect market risk appetite [2] - Short-term market sentiment indicators, including profitability effects and technical indicators, have returned to near-neutral levels, suggesting potential for a rebound in market sentiment once funding indicators cool down [2][3] - A shift towards defensive sectors is expected to continue, but effective breakthroughs in indices may depend on the reactivation of the technology sector [2][4] Observation 1: Market Sentiment - Post-National Day holiday, market risk appetite has declined due to escalating overseas geopolitical issues, leading to a market adjustment [3] - Market sentiment has retreated from high levels to mid-range, with a notable decline in profitability effects and technical indicators, indicating that the sentiment pullback may be nearing its end [3] Observation 2: Market Style Shift - There has been a noticeable shift in market style, with defensive sectors like banking and coal experiencing a rebound, primarily driven by risk aversion rather than economic improvement [4] - Despite some easing in trade tensions, significant breakthroughs in indices are limited due to a lack of aggressive recovery in cyclical sectors [4] Observation 3: Technology as a Mid-term Focus - The technology sector has seen a general pullback, but it remains a key focus for the mid-term, with ongoing trends in AI and TMT sectors indicating potential for future growth [5] - The recent easing of trade tensions may allow the technology sector to recover from its current pressures, presenting new investment opportunities [5] Observation 4: Improvement in Certain Sectors - Overall industry sentiment has declined, but sectors such as large financials, midstream materials, and upstream resources have shown improvement [6] - Specific sectors like AI-driven products continue to see rising sentiment, indicating a mixed outlook across different industries [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on the stock markets, particularly focusing on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, as well as the broader implications for the technology and resource sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Trade Tensions** The U.S. threat to increase tariffs has led to significant market pullbacks across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, with A50 futures and the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing declines of approximately 4-5% [3][4][6] 2. **Investor Sentiment Improvement** Compared to April, the current market sentiment regarding U.S.-China relations has improved, with investors showing increased confidence in the ongoing negotiations and the resilience of Chinese exports [4][5][6] 3. **Key Upcoming Dates** Important upcoming events include a U.S.-China meeting in the next two weeks and a tariff expiration date in early November, which could influence market dynamics [6][7] 4. **Market Position and Valuation** Current market positions and valuations are higher than in April, but the impact of recent events is expected to be less severe due to the strengthening of the Chinese economy and increased capital support [7][8] 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A contrarian investment strategy is advised, focusing on increasing allocations in the technology sector, particularly in hard tech areas such as AI computing power and energy storage, as well as precious metals like gold and resource metals such as copper and aluminum [8][9] 6. **Short-term and Long-term Focus** In the short term, sectors like telecommunications, coal, oil, and agriculture are recommended for risk mitigation, while long-term excess returns may be challenging. Attention should also be given to sectors with recovering demand, such as certain chemicals, lithium batteries, and base metals [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Trade Friction as a Short-term Disturbance** The current trade friction is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend, suggesting that the underlying industrial trends and economic recovery should be trusted [2][9] 2. **Potential for Market Recovery** There is an expectation that Trump's negotiation tactics may lead to a retreat from aggressive tariff increases, providing opportunities for market recovery [6][7] 3. **Confidence in Chinese Export Resilience** The resilience of Chinese exports across technology, consumption, and manufacturing sectors has been validated, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [5][6]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced adjustments after reaching new highs, with external uncertainties suppressing market risk appetite, but core driving factors remain unchanged [1][4] - Future market movements are expected to be characterized by oscillation and rotation, with a focus on safety margins in investments [1][8] Key Policy Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and six other departments issued a plan for promoting service-oriented manufacturing innovation from 2025 to 2028, emphasizing the integration of AI and manufacturing [2] - The logistics industry in China showed signs of improvement, with the logistics prosperity index rising to 51.2% in September, indicating stable expansion in new orders [2] Investment Insights - China Galaxy suggests that the core factors driving the current market remain intact, with a focus on policy-driven sectors and companies with strong earnings visibility during the upcoming earnings season [4] - CITIC Securities highlights three structural themes for investment: resource security, corporate globalization, and technological competition, recommending attention to upstream resource sectors and specific chemicals [5] - GF Securities advises to capitalize on technology industry trends, particularly in AI computing chips and semiconductor equipment, in case of short-term market corrections [6] Market Sentiment - The market is expected to experience oscillation and rotation as the main theme in the near term, with a potential shift towards risk aversion [7][8] - Fund managers emphasize the need to verify the fundamental growth of hot sectors after rapid price increases, laying the groundwork for future investments [9]

Group 1 - The report discusses the conditions for breaking through the consolidation range in the market, indicating that historically, the end of a bear market often leads to a consolidation phase before a bull market begins. The conditions for breaking through this range align with those for confirming a bull market [3][4][7]. - Since 2024, the A-share index has established a new consolidation range, with historical examples showing that once this range is broken, it typically signals the start of a major bull market. The report emphasizes the need for three key elements: continuous inflow of incremental capital, cyclical and structural improvements in the fundamentals, and optimistic expectations for a bull market [4][8][9]. Group 2 - The short-term rebound in the A-share market is supported by a "wall of isolation" against macroeconomic disturbances, which reduces significant downside risks. This environment allows the market to attempt structural breakthroughs, particularly in new consumption and technology sectors [11][12]. - Core targets within the new consumption sector, such as jewelry, trendy IP toys, new snacks, and beauty products, continue to thrive within their respective growth trends. However, the report advises caution regarding the broader consumption expansion, as significant profit effects in new consumption often signal short-term adjustments [12][17]. Group 3 - The report maintains a mid-term structural view that the A-share market will return to a structural bull phase, relying on breakthroughs in technology sectors. Short-term rebounds in technology stocks are noted, but the market has not yet escaped the adjustment phase [12][19]. - The report highlights that new consumption is creating demand and is a key trend as household spending patterns shift. The expansion of new consumption into the broader consumption landscape is seen as a rational outcome based on fundamental trends, but caution is advised regarding the sustainability of this expansion [12][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the banking sector is expected to see a performance turning point due to the accumulation of positive fundamental factors, supported by recent financial policies and stable interest margins [1] - The recent asymmetric interest rate cuts on deposits and loans have stabilized bank interest margins, providing a supportive environment for performance recovery [1] - The public fund allocation is expected to recover, accelerating the realization of bank dividend value in the medium to long term [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing rapid rotation between large-cap and small-cap stocks, suggesting a need to focus on three main investment themes [2] - The first theme is to invest in assets with high safety margins, particularly dividend-paying sectors that offer stable returns amid increased external uncertainties [2] - The second theme emphasizes the technology sector, which remains a long-term investment focus, with short-term attention on undervalued sub-sectors [2] - The third theme highlights the consumer sector, which is expected to benefit from policy support and the ongoing importance of boosting domestic demand [2] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to prioritize innovative drugs, with a focus on consumption recovery as the industry progresses towards innovation by 2025 [3] - The aging population and unmet clinical needs are driving growth in the pharmaceutical industry, alongside improving innovation capabilities [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to return to stable growth, particularly with the emergence of innovative drugs and the normalization of medical compliance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a high central oscillation phase during Q2, with short-term adjustments anticipated due to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy and limited expansion space for new consumption [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Q2 is characterized as a high central oscillation market, with short-term adjustments expected [2]. - The upper limit of the oscillation range is supported by a combination of wide monetary policy and external demand improvements, but concerns about economic downturns remain [2][3]. - The lower limit is influenced by the timely implementation of monetary policies and the role of stabilization funds in managing market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Technology and consumer sectors are currently not positioned to lead market breakthroughs, with technology still in a mid-term adjustment phase [2][4]. - New consumption trends are facing limitations in expanding outward due to reduced internal demand stimulus [2][4]. - The pharmaceutical sector (CXO and innovative drugs) and precious metals are expected to continue their positive trends in the short term [4]. Group 3: Fund Management and Market Dynamics - The recent trend of public funds aligning with performance benchmarks has concluded, with potential for a new round of market dynamics in June [5]. - Fund managers are encouraged to reassess their benchmark choices, as the alignment with performance benchmarks may not be suitable for all [3][4]. - The potential inflow of funds into sectors such as non-banking, banking, construction, public utilities, and coal is noted, although actual inflows remain low relative to market capitalization [3]. Group 4: Profitability and Economic Outlook - A general expectation is that A-shares will struggle to see a significant uptick in profitability until 2025 [2]. - The mid-term outlook for A-shares relies heavily on breakthroughs in the technology sector, particularly in AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries [4]. - The combination of new merger regulations and venture capital financing is anticipated to contribute positively to high-growth segments of the new economy [4]. Group 5: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment indicators show varying levels of profitability across sectors, with banking at 97% and consumer sectors like beauty care and pharmaceuticals showing moderate expansion [8]. - Sectors such as public utilities and basic chemicals are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for focused investment strategies [8]. - The overall A-share market sentiment is showing signs of contraction, with only 42% of stocks indicating profitability expansion [8].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the economic data validates the previously low expectations, indicating limited room for further downward adjustments [3] - The article discusses the potential for a strategic opportunity shift, with expectations for a comprehensive bull market by 2026 [7] - The article highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on China, suggesting that the threat may dampen risk appetite, particularly with a sensitive window in Q2 2025 [8] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced four consecutive years of negative returns, but there is a significant probability of a sector rotation reversal in 2025 [9] - The article notes that while short-term sentiment indicators are high, overall market liquidity has not reached previous peaks, suggesting a cautious long-term outlook amidst rising technology industry trends [11] - The article outlines a cautious investment strategy for U.S. stocks, recommending hedging and timely profit-taking during potential rebounds, particularly in the tech sector [14]