各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，早盘是不是看着创业板跌了快1.5个点，就慌着要割肉离场了？先别着急动 手，听我跟你唠唠今天的行情，看完你就知道，现在到底该慌还是该稳。 最后跟大家总结一下，现在的行情，就是典型的指数分化，主线清晰，不用被指数的下跌吓住，也不用 看着别人的票涨就乱追，午后操作就记住几个核心：不追高位热点，低吸主线优质标的，控制好仓位， 别满仓冒进。 我是帮主郑重，一个做了20年财经记者的中长线投资者，关注我，下午收盘，我再跟大家梳理全天的行 情和三月的中长线布局思路，咱们收盘见。 首先，午后第一要务，绝对不要盲目追高，尤其是今天已经连续大涨的小金属、算力租赁，咱们做中长 线的，永远不要去赚最后一个铜板，你要是看着涨得好就脑子一热冲进去，很容易就接了短期的获利 盘，当天就被套，这种亏，我见过太多散户朋友吃了，真的是拍大腿都来不及，大家一定要管住手。 那机会在哪呢？咱们还是盯着两个核心主线，第一个，就是有真实业绩支撑的AI产业链，今天算力硬 件的回调，不是风险，反而是给了咱们低吸优质标的的机会，但是大家一定要记住，是有核心技术、有 真实订单、有业绩支撑的行业龙头，不是那些蹭热点的杂毛股，别瞎买。第二个，就是 ...

Core Insights - The market is expected to continue its slow bull trend initiated in 2025, driven by supportive policies, moderate economic recovery, and ample liquidity, with a focus on structural opportunities in technology innovation and cyclical sectors [1] - Investor confidence is steadily improving, with external conditions also showing signs of improvement, including the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and a more expansionary fiscal policy among major economies [1] - The supply-side adjustments in cyclical sectors are leading to a healthier supply structure, with some industries experiencing a rebound in gross margins, supported by macro policies driving moderate demand recovery [2] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a systematic research platform with a core philosophy of "doing the right thing for the long term," supported by a dual drive of talent and platform [3] - The company has established eight professional research teams covering various investment styles, with a focus on deep industry research across nine major tracks and over 30 sub-strategies [3] - The "Four True Mechanisms" (true mechanisms, true teams, true talents, and true communication) are in place to ensure organizational vitality and achieve integrated investment research [3] Sector Analysis - In the cyclical sector, the reduction in capital expenditure by listed companies is improving the supply landscape, with a gradual recovery in PPI expected in 2026, leading to greater elasticity in profit recovery [2] - The technology sector is witnessing sustained high growth in capital expenditure from global AI giants, with ongoing advancements in models and commercial metrics, indicating a positive industry trend [2] - Domestic AI investment is anticipated to accelerate in 2026, with major internet companies increasing capital expenditure and innovations in mid-to-low-end applications driving upstream demand for computing power [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the dividend style is expected to perform better in 2026 compared to 2025, based on three dimensions: valuation, earnings, and funding [1] - The relative valuation of dividends versus growth is at the 28.2% percentile since 2016, indicating a significant improvement in attractiveness [1] - A-shares' earnings bottom is expected to reach by the end of 2025 or early 2026, which will ease the pressure on cyclical products from the earnings side [1] Group 2 - Incremental funds such as insurance, fixed income+, and low-risk preference secondary bond funds are more inclined to allocate towards high-dividend assets [1] - The expectation of marginal recovery in PPI, combined with broad anti-involution policies, may create structural opportunities in cyclical products like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and electricity [1] - The dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) tracks the State-owned Dividend Index (000151), which selects high-dividend capable and stable dividend record companies across various sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is experiencing a significant price surge, with tungsten powder prices exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton, indicating a potential industry transformation [3][4][9]. Price Trends - As of December 17, 2025, the prices for various tungsten products are as follows: - Tungsten concentrate (65%) reached 420,000 yuan per ton - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) rose to 620,000 yuan per ton - Tungsten powder surpassed 1,000 yuan per kilogram [4][9]. - The price increases compared to the beginning of the year are substantial: - Tungsten concentrate increased by 193.71% - APT increased by 193.84% - Tungsten powder increased by 216.46% [5][10]. Analyst Background - Xin Zexi, a researcher at Dongfang Caifu Securities, has a history of focusing on cyclical and resource industries, gaining attention for his forward-looking insights [6][11].

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing increased adjustment pressure, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases due to limited rebound heights and accelerated sector rotation [6] - It is suggested to wait for better layout opportunities rather than frequent trial and error in timing [6] Style Strategy - Defensive strategies are emphasized as year-end approaches, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks for medium-term timing [3] - The gold sector is expected to benefit from a decline in dollar credit, leading to potential price increases [3] Theme Strategy - The special steel industry is anticipated to undergo high-quality development due to expected cost declines and new import-export management regulations [4] - The implementation of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure and enhance domestic profitability [6] Investment Opportunities - Investment targets include Chifeng Gold (600988, Buy) and Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) as they are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [6]

Market Performance - Major stock indices in the two markets showed weakness, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark again, and the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices dropping over 1% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.24% to 3993.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.07%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.58%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index declined by 1.65% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12,704 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as semiconductors, chemicals, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, brokerages, and steel experienced declines, while insurance, banking, oil, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - Concepts related to brain engineering and innovative pharmaceuticals were active in the market [1] Investment Outlook - Long-term trends for technology growth stocks show insufficient cost-effectiveness, with increasing short-term fundamental concerns [2] - There is a lack of established structures to lead the market breakout, suggesting that the A-share market may continue to experience a volatile phase [2] - The spring of 2026 is projected to be a potential peak, but it is unlikely to represent the peak for the entire year or the current bull market [2] - Three areas of mid-term returns are anticipated: cyclical improvement in fundamentals, asset allocation shifts towards equities leading to valuation reassessment, and increased global influence of China enhancing economic conditions and valuation [2] - The effective return of the framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected by mid-2026, coinciding with a potential start of a new bull market phase [2]

Core Views - A-shares demonstrated resilience despite underlying concerns, with a strong rebound led by heavyweight sectors such as banks, precious metals, and rare earths, which helped stabilize the market and boost overall sentiment [1][11] Market Overview - On Monday, the three major indices opened significantly lower but rebounded strongly, with the market showing resilience overall. The precious metals, rare earths, and energy metals sectors performed well, while automotive parts, consumer electronics, and gaming sectors faced declines [5][6] - The overall market sentiment was subdued, with more stocks declining than advancing, indicating a concentration of upward momentum in a few heavyweight stocks [2][12] Sector Analysis - **Rare Earths**: The rare earth sector saw significant gains due to recent government policies on export controls and production management, with China holding over 60% of global production. The strategic value of the rare earth industry is expected to increase, especially if trade negotiations improve [7] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals sector surged following a notable increase in international gold prices, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions. The outlook for gold remains bullish, but caution is advised against chasing prices after significant gains [8] - **Cyclical Sectors**: Cyclical sectors, including non-ferrous metals, are expected to strengthen due to anticipated policy support and improving economic conditions. Key areas to watch include solar energy, batteries, and construction machinery [9] - **High Dividend Stocks**: Bank stocks performed well, supporting the index. The dividend yield of state-owned enterprises is becoming attractive again, suggesting a potential recovery in dividend-focused investment strategies [10] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to remain patient and consider opportunities in technology stocks, cyclical sectors, and consumer demand-driven areas, particularly those showing improved performance in Q3 reports [3][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the balanced inflow of funds into the market, particularly into the CSI A500 ETF, indicating a positive sentiment towards broad-based investments [1] - In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the average of the past three years for the same period, suggesting seasonal growth [1] - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with A/H stock indices likely to reach new highs, presenting opportunities for investors despite current market adjustments [1] Group 2 - Structural investment opportunities remain focused on emerging technology, which is seen as a key driver, while new capital expenditure cycles in emerging industries are anticipated [1] - The financial sector, after experiencing adjustments, has returned to its mid-year levels, with potential for increased dividend returns, making it valuable for allocation-focused investors [1] - The increasing number of accounts in the CSI A500 ETF, which is three times that of its closest competitor, indicates a growing preference among investors for this broad-based product [1]

Market Overview - On September 16, the three major stock indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3861.87 points, up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13063.97 points, up 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index at 3087.04 points, up 0.68% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3600 stocks rising and more than 1600 stocks falling [2] Sector Performance - The internet e-commerce sector led the gains, with a rise of 4.33%, contributing a net inflow of 1.26 billion yuan, while the breeding industry and small metals sectors showed weakness [5][6] - Notable performers in the internet e-commerce sector included Li Ren Li Zhuang, which hit the daily limit, and other companies like Qingmu Technology and Kuaijingtong, which rose over 7% [6] - The humanoid robot sector also performed actively, with companies like Hengshuai Co., Anpeilong, and Hongchang Technology reaching daily limits of 20% [7] Individual Stock Highlights - North Rare Earth saw a decline of 4% with a trading volume of 12 billion yuan, while Cambrian's stock price fluctuated, closing at 1440 yuan with a trading volume of 20 billion yuan [8] - Several stocks, including Weike Technology and Jinghua New Materials, reached new highs [8] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the computer, machinery equipment, and electronics sectors, while net outflows were noted in non-ferrous metals, electric power equipment, and basic chemicals [9] - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Huasheng Tiancai, Zhongke Shuguang, and Gongxiao Daji, with inflows of 1.856 billion yuan, 1.325 billion yuan, and 1.124 billion yuan respectively [9] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan noted that multiple factors are likely to support the continued performance of Chinese assets, emphasizing the acceleration of China's transformation and the demand for asset management [10] - Open Source Securities highlighted the importance of focusing on leading companies that align with the theme of "emotional consumption" amid a consumer recovery [11] - Guorong Securities pointed out the index fluctuations and the need to pay attention to structural risks [12]