Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic data from the US and Japan, highlighting significant trends in housing sales, employment, and inflation [2][10] - It emphasizes the mixed signals in the US economy, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [2][4] Group 1: Important Data Review - US January existing home sales fell significantly, with an annualized rate of 3.91 million units, down 8.4% month-over-month, against an expectation of a 4.15 million unit decline [12] - The US non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 65,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.7% year-over-year [12] - Japan's Prime Minister announced plans to implement tax cuts, including a proposal to suspend the consumption tax on food and beverages for two years, potentially reducing tax revenue by approximately 5 trillion yen annually [13] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US Weekly Economic Index (WEI) rose to 2.70% for the week ending February 7, up from 2.21% the previous week, indicating a rebound in economic activity [15] - Germany's Weekly Activity Index (WAI) also increased to 0.10% for the week ending February 8, compared to 0.02% the prior week [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate decreased to 6.5% year-over-year for the week ending February 6, down from 6.7% the previous week [18] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, down from 6.11% the previous week [23] Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment change showed an increase, with 26,000 jobs added over the four weeks ending January 24, up from 20,000 the previous week [28] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000 for the week ending February 7, down from 232,000 the previous week [31] - The number of job vacancies fell, with the Indeed job vacancy index averaging 103.5, down from 104.2 in December [36] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 306.54, down 1.0% week-over-week and 4.2% over the past two weeks [6] - US gasoline prices increased to $2.77 per gallon, up 0.8% from the previous week [42] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.537, down from 0.755 the previous week [46] - Offshore dollar liquidity worsened, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -20.1909 basis points, down from -17.9347 basis points the previous week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield spreads narrowed between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan [52]

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting mixed signals in employment, inflation, and consumer confidence [2][5][15] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators such as the ADP employment numbers, JOLTs job openings, and ISM manufacturing and services PMIs to gauge economic health [5][15] - The article notes that while US consumer confidence has reached a four-month high, employment figures have shown signs of weakness, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [5][15] Group 1: Important Data Review - US December ADP employment numbers were below expectations, with a growth of 41,000 jobs compared to an expected 50,000 [15] - The US trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion in October, significantly lower than the expected $58.5 billion [15] - The ISM services PMI rose to 54.4 in December, exceeding expectations, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, indicating continued contraction [15] Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.13% for the week ending January 3, down from 2.49% the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity [19] - The German WAI index increased to 0.07% for the week ending January 4, up from 0.05% the previous week, suggesting a slight improvement in economic conditions [19] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate decreased to 7.1% for the week ending January 3, down from 7.6% the previous week [23] - The US mortgage rates increased slightly to 6.16% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, while mortgage applications rose, with the MBA market composite index reaching 270.8, a 0.3% increase from the previous week [26][27] Group 4: Employment - The ADP weekly employment numbers showed a decline, with a four-week cumulative increase of 46,000 jobs, down from 70,000 the previous week [32] - Initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 for the week ending January 3, up from 200,000 the previous week [33] - The INDEED job vacancy index increased to a weekly average of 104.8, indicating a rise in job openings [36] Group 5: Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose to 301.47, reflecting a 1.2% increase from the previous week [42] - US gasoline retail prices fell to $2.68 per gallon, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week [42] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone remain loose, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.863 from 0.795 the previous week [47] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed improvement for the yen against the dollar, while the euro against the dollar deteriorated [49] - The 10-year US-EU government bond yield spread widened to 126.8 basis points, up from 121.5 basis points the previous week [52]

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in inflation, manufacturing, and consumer confidence [5][15][16] - It notes a mixed economic outlook, with some indicators showing improvement while others indicate a slowdown [6][20] Group 1: Important Data Review - US September CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also below expectations [15] - October manufacturing PMI in the US rose to 52.2, indicating expansion, while the consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low of 53.6 [15] - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50, with service PMI reaching a 14-month high of 52.6, pushing the composite PMI to 52.2 [15][16] - Japan's exports rebounded in September, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while core CPI rose by 2.9%, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes [16] Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.16 from 2.50, indicating a decline in economic activity [20] - Conversely, Germany's WAI index rose to 0.05 from -0.02, suggesting a recovery in economic activity [20] Group 3: Demand - US retail sales showed a year-on-year decline, with the Redbook commercial retail sales index at 5.0%, down from 5.9% [24] - Mortgage rates in the US decreased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.19% from 6.27% [26] Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 302.98, up 3.3% week-on-week [30] - US gasoline prices decreased to $2.90 per gallon, down 1.2% from the previous week [30] Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have eased, with the US financial conditions index rising to 0.648 from 0.428 [33] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved, with narrowing swap points for both the yen and euro against the dollar [35][42] - The yield spread between 10-year bonds in Europe has narrowed, indicating a shift in market sentiment [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].

Core Viewpoints - The article highlights significant economic data from the US and Eurozone, indicating mixed signals in economic activity and demand trends [2][4][12] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity conditions and employment statistics as indicators of economic health [9][25] Group 1: Important Data Review - In June, US durable goods orders saw a preliminary month-on-month decline of 9.3%, the largest drop since April 2020, while the manufacturing PMI for July hit a new low of 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 [12] - Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for July reached its highest level since July 2022 at 49.8, with service PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.2 [12] - A trade agreement was reached between the US and Japan, reducing tariffs on certain goods and increasing US rice imports [12][13] Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.22% from 2.34% in the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity [15] - Germany's WAI index also decreased to -0.35% from -0.30% [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate marginally decreased to 5.1% from 5.2% [17] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.74%, down from 6.75% the previous week, leading to a 0.8% increase in mortgage applications [20] Group 4: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 217,000 from 221,000 the previous week, while continuing claims rose to 1.955 million from 1.951 million [25] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 302.25, down 1.3% week-on-week [26] - US gasoline prices remained stable at $3.02 per gallon [26] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have loosened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.644 from 0.549 [30] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved, with the 3-month basis swap for the yen against the dollar rising to -22.3589 basis points [34] Group 7: Bond Yield Spreads - The 10-year bond yield spreads between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan, have narrowed [36]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming important economic data and events for the week, including the New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the US, as well as key indicators from the Eurozone and Japan [2][3][4]. - Recent data shows a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for the first time since 2024, with the one-year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May [4][8]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May, while core CPI rose by 2.8%, reflecting the impact of high tariff policies on domestic prices [4][8]. Group 2 - The US household net worth decreased for the first time in 2023, dropping by $1.6 trillion to $169.3 trillion, a decline of 0.9% [4][8]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index improved to 0.2 in June, better than the previous value of -8.1 and the expected -6 [4][8]. - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1, which was better than the initial estimate of a 0.7% decline, exceeding economists' expectations [4][8]. Group 3 - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 1.9 for the week ending June 7, consistent with the four-week moving average [5][10]. - The German economic activity index fell significantly, with the WAI index dropping to -0.5 for the week ending June 8 [11]. - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate slightly decreased to 4.7% year-on-year for the week ending June 7, down from 4.9% the previous week [14]. Group 4 - The US mortgage rates saw a slight decline, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.84% as of June 12, down from 6.85% the previous week [16]. - Initial jobless claims in the US remained unchanged at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, while continuing claims rose significantly to 1.956 million [21]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index increased to 309.9 on June 13, reflecting a 3.0% rise from the previous week [24]. Group 5 - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have marginally eased, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.491 from 0.336 [28]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained relatively loose, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -24.5 basis points [30]. - The high-yield corporate bond spread in the US remained low, with a spread of 3.08 basis points as of June 13 [32].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI大幅下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数创2022年7月以来新低。②欧元区4月服务业意外收缩。③日本4月服务业PMI反弹，东京4月核心CPI同比增速自2023年7月以来首次高于3%。 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回升）、就业（美国续请失业金人数回 落）、物价（大宗价格回升）。②景气下行的有：地产（房贷申请数量回落）、就业（美国初请失业金人数回升）、物价（汽油零售价回 落）。 3、美国流动性高频 ：①美国和欧元区金融条件放松。②离岸美元流动性：日元对美元3个月掉期基差回升，欧元兑美元3个月掉期基差 回落。 报告摘要 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数创2022年7月以来新 低 。 2、欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in inflation, employment, and financial conditions [2][4][10]. Group 1: Important Data Review - In February, the US PPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3% and previous 3.5%, with a month-on-month change of 0% against an expected increase of 0.3% [9]. - The US CPI for February grew by 2.8% year-on-year, below the expected 2.9% and previous 3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [9]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for March rose to -2.9, significantly above the expected -8.4 and previous -12.7 [10]. - Germany's January exports fell by 2.5% month-on-month, contrary to the expected growth of 0.5% [10]. - Japan's 2024 Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth was revised down to 2.2%, below the expected 2.8% [10]. Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index increased to 2.65% for the week of March 8, up from 2.24% the previous week [13]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.51% for the week of March 9, compared to 0.24% the previous week [13]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate decreased to 5.7% for the week of March 8, down from 6.6% the previous week [14]. - The US mortgage application numbers increased, with the MBA market composite index rising to 269.3, an 11.2% week-on-week increase [15]. Group 4: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 220,000 for the week of March 8, down from 222,000 the previous week [16]. - Continuing claims also decreased to 1.87 million, compared to 1.90 million the previous week [16]. Group 5: Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index was 302.67 on March 14, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week [17]. - The US gasoline retail price was $2.95 per gallon on March 10, down 0.1% from the previous week [17]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US was 0.20 on March 14, down from 0.27 the previous week [18]. - The Eurozone's Bloomberg financial conditions index increased to 1.30, up from 1.17 the previous week [18]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed deterioration, with the yen and euro swap basis against the dollar decreasing [19]. Group 7: Bond Yield Spread - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone narrowed, with the US-EU spread at 135.6 basis points, down from 144.7 basis points the previous week [21].