Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer confidence, which may present investment opportunities in these regions [2][3][9]. Group 1: US Economic Data - The US August S&P PMI exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI initial value at 53.3, compared to the forecast of 49.7 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July leading index from the Conference Board met expectations, showing a month-on-month change of -0.1%, in line with forecasts [2][9]. - July housing data surpassed expectations, with new housing starts at an annualized rate of 1.428 million units, above the forecast of 1.297 million units, and revised previous value from 1.321 million to 1.358 million units [2][9]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, with an initial value of 50.5, compared to the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8 [2][9]. - The July CPI final value met expectations, with a year-on-year change of 2%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also in line at 2.3% [2][9]. - The August consumer confidence index was below expectations, with an initial value of -15.5 against a forecast of -14.7 [2][9]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's August manufacturing PMI rebounded to an initial value of 49.9, up from the previous value of 48.9, while the services PMI slightly declined to 52.7 from 53.6 [3][10]. - June core machinery orders exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 3%, against a forecast of -0.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, compared to the expected 4.7% [3][10]. - July CPI was in line with expectations, showing a year-on-year change of 3.1% [3][10]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Key upcoming US economic data includes July new home sales on August 25, July durable goods orders initial value on August 26, and August consumer confidence index on August 26 [4][11]. - In the Eurozone, July M3 year-on-year data will be released on August 28, along with the final value of the August consumer confidence index [5][12]. - Japan will report July unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, July retail sales, and July industrial output initial value on August 29 [5][12]. Group 5: High-Frequency Data Review - Economic activity indices for the US and Germany showed slight improvement, with the US WEI index at 2.54% for the week of August 16, up from 2.50% the previous week [6][13]. - US retail sales showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.9% for the week of August 15, compared to 5.7% the previous week [16][22]. - Initial jobless claims in the US were weaker than expected, with 235,000 claims for the week of August 16, against a forecast of 225,000 [24]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - The US financial conditions index remained stable, while the Eurozone's index showed a slight tightening [7][32]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with slight fluctuations in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][34]. - Long-term bond yield spreads narrowed in the US, Japan, and Germany, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [7][37].

Core Viewpoints - The article highlights significant economic data from the US and Eurozone, indicating mixed signals in economic activity and demand trends [2][4][12] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity conditions and employment statistics as indicators of economic health [9][25] Group 1: Important Data Review - In June, US durable goods orders saw a preliminary month-on-month decline of 9.3%, the largest drop since April 2020, while the manufacturing PMI for July hit a new low of 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 [12] - Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for July reached its highest level since July 2022 at 49.8, with service PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.2 [12] - A trade agreement was reached between the US and Japan, reducing tariffs on certain goods and increasing US rice imports [12][13] Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index fell to 2.22% from 2.34% in the previous week, indicating a decline in economic activity [15] - Germany's WAI index also decreased to -0.35% from -0.30% [15] Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate marginally decreased to 5.1% from 5.2% [17] - Mortgage rates in the US fell slightly, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.74%, down from 6.75% the previous week, leading to a 0.8% increase in mortgage applications [20] Group 4: Employment - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 217,000 from 221,000 the previous week, while continuing claims rose to 1.955 million from 1.951 million [25] Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 302.25, down 1.3% week-on-week [26] - US gasoline prices remained stable at $3.02 per gallon [26] Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have loosened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.644 from 0.549 [30] - Offshore dollar liquidity improved, with the 3-month basis swap for the yen against the dollar rising to -22.3589 basis points [34] Group 7: Bond Yield Spreads - The 10-year bond yield spreads between the US and Eurozone, as well as between the US and Japan, have narrowed [36]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming important economic data and events for the week, including the New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the US, as well as key indicators from the Eurozone and Japan [2][3][4]. - Recent data shows a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for the first time since 2024, with the one-year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May [4][8]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May, while core CPI rose by 2.8%, reflecting the impact of high tariff policies on domestic prices [4][8]. Group 2 - The US household net worth decreased for the first time in 2023, dropping by $1.6 trillion to $169.3 trillion, a decline of 0.9% [4][8]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index improved to 0.2 in June, better than the previous value of -8.1 and the expected -6 [4][8]. - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1, which was better than the initial estimate of a 0.7% decline, exceeding economists' expectations [4][8]. Group 3 - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 1.9 for the week ending June 7, consistent with the four-week moving average [5][10]. - The German economic activity index fell significantly, with the WAI index dropping to -0.5 for the week ending June 8 [11]. - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate slightly decreased to 4.7% year-on-year for the week ending June 7, down from 4.9% the previous week [14]. Group 4 - The US mortgage rates saw a slight decline, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.84% as of June 12, down from 6.85% the previous week [16]. - Initial jobless claims in the US remained unchanged at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, while continuing claims rose significantly to 1.956 million [21]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index increased to 309.9 on June 13, reflecting a 3.0% rise from the previous week [24]. Group 5 - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have marginally eased, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.491 from 0.336 [28]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained relatively loose, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -24.5 basis points [30]. - The high-yield corporate bond spread in the US remained low, with a spread of 3.08 basis points as of June 13 [32].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI大幅下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数创2022年7月以来新低。②欧元区4月服务业意外收缩。③日本4月服务业PMI反弹，东京4月核心CPI同比增速自2023年7月以来首次高于3%。 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回升）、就业（美国续请失业金人数回 落）、物价（大宗价格回升）。②景气下行的有：地产（房贷申请数量回落）、就业（美国初请失业金人数回升）、物价（汽油零售价回 落）。 3、美国流动性高频 ：①美国和欧元区金融条件放松。②离岸美元流动性：日元对美元3个月掉期基差回升，欧元兑美元3个月掉期基差 回落。 报告摘要 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国3月核心耐用品订单零增长，4月Markit服务业PMI下滑，3月新屋销量超预期增长，4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数创2022年7月以来新 低 。 2、欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].

联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国2月PPI环比低于预期，2月CPI通胀超预期回落，1月JOLTs职位空缺数回升。②欧元区3月投资者信心指数大幅回升，德国1月出口明显 下滑。③日本2024年四季度实际GDP年化季环比终值小幅下修。 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、就业（美国初请和续请失 业金人数回落）、地产（房贷申请数量回升）。②景气下行的有：消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回升）、物价（大宗价格和汽油零售价回落）。 3、美国流动性 高频 ：①美国金融条件紧缩，欧元区金融条件放松。②离岸美元流动性：有所恶化。日元、欧元兑美元3个月掉期基差回落。 报告摘要 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国2月PPI环比低于预期，2月CPI通胀超预期回落，1月JOLTs职位空缺数回升 。 2、欧元区3月投资者信心指数大幅回升，德国1月出口明显下滑 。 3、日本 2024年四季度实际GDP年化季环比终值小幅下修 。 二、周度经济活动指数 美国经济活动指数回升 ...